Commentary: US President in 2020 - why Donald Trump could win again
Mr Trump has refashioned the world, American politics and the Republican party in his image - and he's only halfway done.
By Lin Suling Executive Editor
Danny Lum
(1) Whether Trump win again in 2020 or not - the World will not stand by idly and let Trump pull their nose.
(2) The World will evolve - out of harm way cause by Trump's protectionism.
(3) Very clearly, Trump led US has lose its global leadership and influence - and Countries are forming trade blocs isolated from US.
(4) The longer Trump stay in power - the more US will be isolated from the World - and the damage can have long-term permanent effect.
(2) The World will evolve - out of harm way cause by Trump's protectionism.
(3) Very clearly, Trump led US has lose its global leadership and influence - and Countries are forming trade blocs isolated from US.
(4) The longer Trump stay in power - the more US will be isolated from the World - and the damage can have long-term permanent effect.
Like · Reply · 1m
Teo Huai Wei Edmund
1) The world is led by whoever is more powerful both economically and militarily. As it stands, America actually got more powerful on both fronts in recent years. The world is still going to kowtow to America whether they like it or not. As if the Huawei case and failed attempts by Iran to use the EU to circumvent the US bans are not good enough lessons.
2) Trump's policies are actually not just protectionism, if you are intelligent enough to look beyond the political rhetoric. He wants fair trade, and which country does not want that? People round the world go on protest marches and riot precisely because of the negative consequences of globalisation, the very consequence Trump is tackling for his support base. If anything, most people actually want Trump's policies to occur in their own country.
3) Once again, Iran and the EU learnt a hard lesson that there is no way they can trade without American support. Countries are forced to avoid Iranian oil because the US says so. Huawei realised they are more heavily damaged by the US bans than they anticipated. China realised they can't take the US head-on in a trade war. Russia's economy was devastated simply by the US increasing its oil production. Every country which the US tore up trade deals with eventually came back to sign a new deal with terms more favourable to the US.
4) The longer Trump stays in power, the more rivals like China and Russia will have to tone down their superpower ambitions. The longer he stays in power, the more likely that renegade states like Iran and North Korea will either implode on their own under the weight of sanctions, or be forced to return to the negotiation table. The longer he stays in power, the more governments realise they need to consider the needs of those left behind by globalisation in their own countries, the very groups who tend to vote populist, anti-immigration parties. The US has, once again, changed the world much more than it has ever been isolated.
Deal with it. :D
2) Trump's policies are actually not just protectionism, if you are intelligent enough to look beyond the political rhetoric. He wants fair trade, and which country does not want that? People round the world go on protest marches and riot precisely because of the negative consequences of globalisation, the very consequence Trump is tackling for his support base. If anything, most people actually want Trump's policies to occur in their own country.
3) Once again, Iran and the EU learnt a hard lesson that there is no way they can trade without American support. Countries are forced to avoid Iranian oil because the US says so. Huawei realised they are more heavily damaged by the US bans than they anticipated. China realised they can't take the US head-on in a trade war. Russia's economy was devastated simply by the US increasing its oil production. Every country which the US tore up trade deals with eventually came back to sign a new deal with terms more favourable to the US.
4) The longer Trump stays in power, the more rivals like China and Russia will have to tone down their superpower ambitions. The longer he stays in power, the more likely that renegade states like Iran and North Korea will either implode on their own under the weight of sanctions, or be forced to return to the negotiation table. The longer he stays in power, the more governments realise they need to consider the needs of those left behind by globalisation in their own countries, the very groups who tend to vote populist, anti-immigration parties. The US has, once again, changed the world much more than it has ever been isolated.
Deal with it. :D
Reply · 31m
Danny Lum
Teo Huai Wei Edmund -
(1) US economy is only US$19 trillion.
The rest of the World Economy is about US$60 trillion - the rest of the World can trade without US - if US don't want to,
(2) US debt is US$23 trillion - and no World institutions can bail US out - when US is cut off from the World.
(3) US economy is big - because US trade with the World - by selling their goods and services to the World.
The moment US get itself isolated - and when the World bypass US - US economy will shrink, its debt is too big bear - and it will go bankrupt - and no world institutions can bail it out like Greece.
(4) So don't assume the World cannot do without US - if Trump decide to make US the great wall of US.
(5) Read the history of 1930 Deep Depression - on how US start tariff war against the World - that lead to World War 2 - and Trump is repeating this history.
(6) And yet you still praise his efforts --- where the World may degrade economically to a point - that WW3 may come to do a reset.
(7) People like Trump and you - never learn from history - and yet still sing praise on Trump.
(1) US economy is only US$19 trillion.
The rest of the World Economy is about US$60 trillion - the rest of the World can trade without US - if US don't want to,
(2) US debt is US$23 trillion - and no World institutions can bail US out - when US is cut off from the World.
(3) US economy is big - because US trade with the World - by selling their goods and services to the World.
The moment US get itself isolated - and when the World bypass US - US economy will shrink, its debt is too big bear - and it will go bankrupt - and no world institutions can bail it out like Greece.
(4) So don't assume the World cannot do without US - if Trump decide to make US the great wall of US.
(5) Read the history of 1930 Deep Depression - on how US start tariff war against the World - that lead to World War 2 - and Trump is repeating this history.
(6) And yet you still praise his efforts --- where the World may degrade economically to a point - that WW3 may come to do a reset.
(7) People like Trump and you - never learn from history - and yet still sing praise on Trump.
Like · Reply · 1m
Danny Lum
Teo Huai Wei Edmund -
Read this and see whether Trump will cause US to suffer or not :-
The Impact of Tariffs and Trade Wars on the US Economy and the Dollar
https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundamental/daily_briefing/daily_pieces/top_fx_headlines/2018/03/02/The-Impact-of-Tariffs-and-Trade-Wars-on-the-US-Economy-and-the-Dollar.html?fbclid=IwAR2FbtkZMn_v4MIsm9UMvO6tqEXzPRzmVuTVEnVvu1IMb7gpj-2r-vJuabM
Read this and see whether Trump will cause US to suffer or not :-
The Impact of Tariffs and Trade Wars on the US Economy and the Dollar
https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundamental/daily_briefing/daily_pieces/top_fx_headlines/2018/03/02/The-Impact-of-Tariffs-and-Trade-Wars-on-the-US-Economy-and-the-Dollar.html?fbclid=IwAR2FbtkZMn_v4MIsm9UMvO6tqEXzPRzmVuTVEnVvu1IMb7gpj-2r-vJuabM
Like · Reply · 1m
Danny Lum
Teo Huai Wei Edmund -
John Bolton Warns National Debt Is An "Economic Threat" To The US Security
Profile picture for user Tyler Durden
by Tyler Durden
Thu, 11/01/2018 - 17:05
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Authored by Mac Slavo via SHTFplan.com,
In an incredibly obvious statement, National Security Advisor John Bolton has declared the high level of national debt an “economic threat” to the United States. Unless you have been living under a rock for the past ten years, you know that statement is not only true but obvious.
Bolton claimed that the national debt is a big problem and tackling it requires significant cuts to the government’s discretionary spending, while most other economic experts say entitlement spending is the biggest concern. According to Bloomberg, Bolton was quoted as saying:
“It is a fact that when your national debt gets to the level ours is, that it constitutes an economic threat to the society. And that kind of threat ultimately has a national security consequence for it.”
Discretionary spending is set by Congress each year, while spending on entitlements is twice as large and more automatic, generally dictated by demand for the services. Many budget experts say entitlement spending presents a larger long-term threat to the U.S. economy because of both its magnitude and increasing demand from an aging population.
John Bolton Warns National Debt Is An "Economic Threat" To The US Security
Profile picture for user Tyler Durden
by Tyler Durden
Thu, 11/01/2018 - 17:05
2
SHARES
TwitterFacebookRedditEmailPrint
Authored by Mac Slavo via SHTFplan.com,
In an incredibly obvious statement, National Security Advisor John Bolton has declared the high level of national debt an “economic threat” to the United States. Unless you have been living under a rock for the past ten years, you know that statement is not only true but obvious.
Bolton claimed that the national debt is a big problem and tackling it requires significant cuts to the government’s discretionary spending, while most other economic experts say entitlement spending is the biggest concern. According to Bloomberg, Bolton was quoted as saying:
“It is a fact that when your national debt gets to the level ours is, that it constitutes an economic threat to the society. And that kind of threat ultimately has a national security consequence for it.”
Discretionary spending is set by Congress each year, while spending on entitlements is twice as large and more automatic, generally dictated by demand for the services. Many budget experts say entitlement spending presents a larger long-term threat to the U.S. economy because of both its magnitude and increasing demand from an aging population.
Like · Reply · 1m
Danny Lum
Teo Huai Wei Edmund -
(1) To conclude, your whole argument about Trump's greatness --- has no Economic Foundation & and fail to understand how the economy works.
(1) To conclude, your whole argument about Trump's greatness --- has no Economic Foundation & and fail to understand how the economy works.
Like · Reply · 1m · Edited
Danny Lum
Teo Huai Wei Edmund -
Danny Lum
(1) Trump fail to understand the mechanics of Macroeconomics.
(2) Trump has make use of tariff (Economics) as weapon to achieve his other objectives eg. geopolitical influences, global leadership and tech leadership.
Both of the above - will have the effect of messing up US economy as well as the Global Economy because :-
(1) He mess up his fiscal policies (by ballooning US public debt) - through tax cut into a huge unsustainable public debt of US$23 trillion.
Note :- a large portion of the debt are external debt owe to foreign countries.
Serviicng this debt and repaying the capital loan - will lead to mass outflow of capital away from US economy.
(2) Trump mess up the trade policy and derail the global supply chain - that provide the most cost effective and optimal production input - that will fuel US domestic economy.
(3) As import price increase - due to high tariff impose by Trump, as well as disrupting the global supply chain that provide the least cost - it will cause the US production cost to increase.
(4) As a result, business cost go up, demand go down, consumption go down, job got loss due to lower business activities, busienss investment go down, tax cut that flood the US financial market will be neutralise, US economy go into recession - US Treasury coffer with high debt, high debt interest to service - will have no more bullets to prop up the US economy.
This is known as "demultiplier effect" to the Circular flow of Income in US economy --- through Trump's "Boom and Bust" economic cycle --- by artificially inflate the economy through unsustainable tax cut for immediate gratification to please his voters - but will lead to a recession later.
(5) There are already sign of economic slowdown coming out from the US economy :-
(a) Many US tech companies reported lower earnings and slower sales.
(b) Many small US agriculture selling their assets and farms - as they are unable to sell to China.
(c) US$1 trillion investment have been wiped out from the Global market.
(d) Many US businesses and CEOs are projecting US recession in 2020 - as they face difficulties in exporting their goods to other Countries and face high import cost due to tariff impose by Trump.
(e) Job growth has come down in US.
Like · Reply · 1m
Danny Lum
(1) Trump fail to understand the mechanics of Macroeconomics.
(2) Trump has make use of tariff (Economics) as weapon to achieve his other objectives eg. geopolitical influences, global leadership and tech leadership.
Both of the above - will have the effect of messing up US economy as well as the Global Economy because :-
(1) He mess up his fiscal policies (by ballooning US public debt) - through tax cut into a huge unsustainable public debt of US$23 trillion.
Note :- a large portion of the debt are external debt owe to foreign countries.
Serviicng this debt and repaying the capital loan - will lead to mass outflow of capital away from US economy.
(2) Trump mess up the trade policy and derail the global supply chain - that provide the most cost effective and optimal production input - that will fuel US domestic economy.
(3) As import price increase - due to high tariff impose by Trump, as well as disrupting the global supply chain that provide the least cost - it will cause the US production cost to increase.
(4) As a result, business cost go up, demand go down, consumption go down, job got loss due to lower business activities, busienss investment go down, tax cut that flood the US financial market will be neutralise, US economy go into recession - US Treasury coffer with high debt, high debt interest to service - will have no more bullets to prop up the US economy.
This is known as "demultiplier effect" to the Circular flow of Income in US economy --- through Trump's "Boom and Bust" economic cycle --- by artificially inflate the economy through unsustainable tax cut for immediate gratification to please his voters - but will lead to a recession later.
(5) There are already sign of economic slowdown coming out from the US economy :-
(a) Many US tech companies reported lower earnings and slower sales.
(b) Many small US agriculture selling their assets and farms - as they are unable to sell to China.
(c) US$1 trillion investment have been wiped out from the Global market.
(d) Many US businesses and CEOs are projecting US recession in 2020 - as they face difficulties in exporting their goods to other Countries and face high import cost due to tariff impose by Trump.
(e) Job growth has come down in US.
Like · Reply · 1m
Like · Reply · 1m
Danny Lum
Danny Lum
(1) Note :- US economy is only 250 million consumers --- it can't be the largest Economy in the World - if their businesses don't sell their products and services to the World (the World population is 6 billion consumers).
(2) Imagine if US cannot sell their boeing planes, weapons, cars, IT products, financial services, crops etc to the World --- US economy will shrink phenomenally.
(3) Now Trump offended all his trading partners and harm all external consumers relationship --- does anyone really think they will buy more US products and services?
(4) So Trump indeed has shoot himself on his own foot - and cause long term harm to US - when the World start to move away from the US economy.
(2) Imagine if US cannot sell their boeing planes, weapons, cars, IT products, financial services, crops etc to the World --- US economy will shrink phenomenally.
(3) Now Trump offended all his trading partners and harm all external consumers relationship --- does anyone really think they will buy more US products and services?
(4) So Trump indeed has shoot himself on his own foot - and cause long term harm to US - when the World start to move away from the US economy.
Jm Chow
Why did Trump win in 2016 ?
It was the VOTERS.... the Americans... the popular movement started by the outsider..
The Americans are sick and tired of the political establishments (both the GOP and Democrats) in Washington. In 2016, They kicked out the 'dictationship' of the political Establishments (of he rich elites and special interests groups) who have a strangle hold on power in the US for over 30 years.
In 2016, the US became a democracy again...when voters kicked out Clinton (the proxy of the establishment) and elected Trump who delivered on most things he promised the voters... jobs, lower taxes, higher income, better trade deals with other countries,... and not wasting trillions on foreign wars.
The Establishments together with US popular press (also under their control) has been fighting back since day one of the Trump administration...to remove and to replace him with a soft coup...(Russian collusion and impeachments).
2020, will be a watershed year ... an election to decide on ...the Establishment vs the voters (who want democracy to stay in the US.)
At the moment, the establishment has an edge...because of Trump's trade war with China...which alienated many of Trump's voters in key states (the farmers).
If he failed to make a good deal with China at the G-20 meeting in Osaka...Trump will lose in 2020
It was the VOTERS.... the Americans... the popular movement started by the outsider..
The Americans are sick and tired of the political establishments (both the GOP and Democrats) in Washington. In 2016, They kicked out the 'dictationship' of the political Establishments (of he rich elites and special interests groups) who have a strangle hold on power in the US for over 30 years.
In 2016, the US became a democracy again...when voters kicked out Clinton (the proxy of the establishment) and elected Trump who delivered on most things he promised the voters... jobs, lower taxes, higher income, better trade deals with other countries,... and not wasting trillions on foreign wars.
The Establishments together with US popular press (also under their control) has been fighting back since day one of the Trump administration...to remove and to replace him with a soft coup...(Russian collusion and impeachments).
2020, will be a watershed year ... an election to decide on ...the Establishment vs the voters (who want democracy to stay in the US.)
At the moment, the establishment has an edge...because of Trump's trade war with China...which alienated many of Trump's voters in key states (the farmers).
If he failed to make a good deal with China at the G-20 meeting in Osaka...Trump will lose in 2020
Tonyle Tan
America is on the way down, not great again. Do you think the values promoted by USA under Trump are great ? Definitely not .Good human values are far better than those
Like · Reply · 2h
Ng Kong Hung
The writer appears to be mesmerized by Trump’s shallow antics and grandstanding vulgar showmanship that his supporters enjoy like a freak show. She should do well to apply more careful analysis on the anger and revulsion that most right thinking humans have for this liar and charlatan POTUS
Teo Huai Wei Edmund
Or perhaps you should be asking yourself if you are relying too much on western liberal news sources and have never tried to use your own brain matter to judge him objectively?
Reply · 30m
Ng Kong Hung
Teo Huai Wei Edmund perhaps you have been relying on Fox News to draw form your opinions?
Reply · 1m
Tjudin Tjong
The writer was writing about whether he will win again in 2020.
Many of you just like to criticise him!
Many of you just like to criticise him!
Michael Sng HS
Finally, someone in Singapore willing to write about Trump in a neutral tone. Kudos to the writer.
Teo Huai Wei Edmund
Actually, much of the articles appearing in Singapore newspapers are lifted directly from Western liberal sources. It also does not help that many of them think the PAP does not approve of Trump, so quite naturally, you will notice they all sound like broken records repeating what the liberal media says.
There has actually been quite a number of original articles writtern by our local media with far more objective and balanced views about his presidency. But of course most people here won't subsribe and read those long analytical pieces.
There has actually been quite a number of original articles writtern by our local media with far more objective and balanced views about his presidency. But of course most people here won't subsribe and read those long analytical pieces.
Reply · 26m
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