Read more at https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/asia/east-coast-rail-link-proceed-malaysia-china-slash-costs-11438428
(Updated: )
Ricky Lim
Posted on :- 21 Jul 2018 08:39PM (Updated: 21 Jul 2018 08:46PM)
Ricky Lim
The rail link providing passenger commuters access make more sense - to facilitate travel.
Rail link to provide cargo access - commercially less efficient - as demonstrated by a trial of rail access to Europe from China - it only last 1 trip - and no more.
Reason:- One ship container can carry more than 20,000 TEUs of cargo.
A rail can carry only 45 containers. Also depends on the weight of the cargo, the rail may not be able to take it.
Heavy cargo in container ship can float......
So how many trip the rail need to bring up 20,000 TEUs of cargo to the cargo ship in the port?
Mathematically, 444 rail trips. By the time the cargo ship is fully loaded, the sun rise and set don't know how many moons already loh .......
The ship container captain wait for all the rail trips to arrive to load all the container into his ship - will already have 又长大一岁了 - and he will have sleep on his captain seat with cobwebs all over。
So wonder how does rail cargo can facilitate port access ...........
Like · Reply · 1m · Edited
Ricky Lim
So far most trade in the World is conducted by cargo container via the sea.
Very little by rail and air freight because it is not efficient and not cost effective - in terms of cargo volume that it can transport.....
Also when put heavy machinery load on a rail, I think the railway track also become "benkuk".
When put heavy machinery on cargo plane, the plane will fly like helicopter - hovering at the height of a tree.......
Like · Reply · 1m
Ricky Lim
More accurate calculation :-
1 ship container = 20,000 TEU
1 TEU =
24,000 Kilograms =
26.455471 Tons
Thus, 1 ship container = 20,000 TEU x 26.455471 Tons = 529,109.42 tons
Rail need to deliver = 529,109.42 tonnes / 3,500 tonnes = 151.17412 trips for 45 wagon car
--
So is ECRL a game changer for freight cargo - doesn't look like it.
But for passenger travelling make more sense.
Like · Reply · 1m
Ricky Lim
The rail link providing passenger commuters access make more sense - to facilitate travel.
Rail link to provide cargo access - commercially less efficient - as demonstrated by a trial of rail access to Europe from China - it only last 1 trip - and no more.
Reason:- One ship container can carry more than 20,000 TEUs of cargo.
A rail can carry only 45 containers. Also depends on the weight of the cargo, the rail may not be able to take it.
Heavy cargo in container ship can float......
So how many trip the rail need to bring up 20,000 TEUs of cargo to the cargo ship in the port?
Mathematically, 444 rail trips. By the time the cargo ship is fully loaded, the sun rise and set don't know how many moons already loh .......
The ship container captain wait for all the rail trips to arrive to load all the container into his ship - will already have 又长大一岁了 - and he will have sleep on his captain seat with cobwebs all over。
So wonder how does rail cargo can facilitate port access ...........
Like · Reply · 1m · Edited
Ricky Lim
So far most trade in the World is conducted by cargo container via the sea.
Very little by rail and air freight because it is not efficient and not cost effective - in terms of cargo volume that it can transport.....
Also when put heavy machinery load on a rail, I think the railway track also become "benkuk".
When put heavy machinery on cargo plane, the plane will fly like helicopter - hovering at the height of a tree.......
Like · Reply · 1m
Ricky Lim
More accurate calculation :-
1 ship container = 20,000 TEU
1 TEU =
24,000 Kilograms =
26.455471 Tons
Thus, 1 ship container = 20,000 TEU x 26.455471 Tons = 529,109.42 tons
Rail need to deliver = 529,109.42 tonnes / 3,500 tonnes = 151.17412 trips for 45 wagon car
--
So is ECRL a game changer for freight cargo - doesn't look like it.
But for passenger travelling make more sense.
Like · Reply · 1m
Ricky Lim
Ricky Lim
(1) If China tourists come by ECRL - they can visit east part of Malaysia and west part of Malaysia.
(2) If HSR is in place, China tourists can transfer from ECRL to HSR and come down all the way to Singapore.
--- then ECRL and HSR is feasible - as it promote tourism.
(1) But if ECRL carry cargo eg. 45 wagon station from China to Port Klang --- then there is a need to "zing zong zi zhang, zing zong zi xhang" = 151 trips to 444 times - to bring cargo from China to port klang - before filling up 1 container ship in Port klang and take off.
By that times, many "moons" will have come and go - and the ship captain beard must have become very long and spider cobwebs will have build all over him.
Then ship cargo is not efficient.
Like · Reply · 1m
(1) If China tourists come by ECRL - they can visit east part of Malaysia and west part of Malaysia.
(2) If HSR is in place, China tourists can transfer from ECRL to HSR and come down all the way to Singapore.
--- then ECRL and HSR is feasible - as it promote tourism.
(1) But if ECRL carry cargo eg. 45 wagon station from China to Port Klang --- then there is a need to "zing zong zi zhang, zing zong zi xhang" = 151 trips to 444 times - to bring cargo from China to port klang - before filling up 1 container ship in Port klang and take off.
By that times, many "moons" will have come and go - and the ship captain beard must have become very long and spider cobwebs will have build all over him.
Then ship cargo is not efficient.
Like · Reply · 1m
Like · Reply · 1m
Ricky Lim
As for kra canal :-
Thailand Government will not agree to build the canal because :-
(1) By breaking the Country into 2 - where the Southern part are facing Muslim rebellion - the Government will lose the southern part of the Country to Malaysia - and lose its Sovereignty. The Thai Government are not stupid.
(2) The cost of canal is estimated to be S$37 billion - and could be more - the cost is too high to embark - and almost not possible to recoup the cost.
(3) Millions of Thais need to be relocated - which will turn out to be a political minefield to the Thai Government - not including relocation cost. The cost will become too much for Thai Government to fund.
(4) The saving to shipping companies are only 72 hours --- and ports need many facilities that are provided by Singapore ports ---- which is not a great incentive for shipping companies to switch.
(5) The environmental impact of digging out the soil and granite - will damaged the fisheries eco-system in Thailand - and many Thai fisherman will go out of business - and this will be another political landmine to the Thai Government.
Thailand Government will not agree to build the canal because :-
(1) By breaking the Country into 2 - where the Southern part are facing Muslim rebellion - the Government will lose the southern part of the Country to Malaysia - and lose its Sovereignty. The Thai Government are not stupid.
(2) The cost of canal is estimated to be S$37 billion - and could be more - the cost is too high to embark - and almost not possible to recoup the cost.
(3) Millions of Thais need to be relocated - which will turn out to be a political minefield to the Thai Government - not including relocation cost. The cost will become too much for Thai Government to fund.
(4) The saving to shipping companies are only 72 hours --- and ports need many facilities that are provided by Singapore ports ---- which is not a great incentive for shipping companies to switch.
(5) The environmental impact of digging out the soil and granite - will damaged the fisheries eco-system in Thailand - and many Thai fisherman will go out of business - and this will be another political landmine to the Thai Government.
Like · Reply · 1m
Ricky Lim
The real threat come from :-
(1) Arctic North route (when the ice start to melt) - as it cut travelling by half (from 40 days to 14 days).
But is it a big threat to Singapore ports?
Singapore has to rethink its maritime strategy - that it should not be constrained by its physical location.
Ships will continue to dock at Singapore ports even though there are shorter ship route access along the Arctic path.
Why? Because there are many more Countries along Malacca Straits, Indian Ocean, Middle East, Africa, Europe, South China Sea, Asia Pacific --- that are trading with one another.
Naturally, goods will have to be delivered to these Countries - and will still dock at Singapore ports.
(1) Arctic North route (when the ice start to melt) - as it cut travelling by half (from 40 days to 14 days).
But is it a big threat to Singapore ports?
Singapore has to rethink its maritime strategy - that it should not be constrained by its physical location.
Ships will continue to dock at Singapore ports even though there are shorter ship route access along the Arctic path.
Why? Because there are many more Countries along Malacca Straits, Indian Ocean, Middle East, Africa, Europe, South China Sea, Asia Pacific --- that are trading with one another.
Naturally, goods will have to be delivered to these Countries - and will still dock at Singapore ports.
Like · Reply · 1m
Ricky Lim
Is Singapore worried that HSR from KL to Singapore is cancelled?
The answer is no.
Why?
(1) Singapore has stronger currency and stronger buying power - Malaysia will lose more without the HSR - because Singaporeans will not take HSR to Malaysia.
(2) Will Singapore lose China tourists?
Not really.
Why?
a. How long China fly to Malaysia and Singapore - 4 hours.
b. Budget airline - cheap ticket.
How much ECRL is going to charge customer?
a. Will it be cheaper than budget airline? Probably not - else cannot recoup capital cost.
b. How long China tourist need to sit on the rail travelling from China to Malaysia and Singapore ---- more than 10 hours? (Back ache, backside ache) --- and tourist may prefer to take budget airline.
So is Singapore afraid HSR will be cancel and lose China tourists - not afraid.
So is Malaysia more afraid of losing Singapore tourists? Very afraid.
The answer is no.
Why?
(1) Singapore has stronger currency and stronger buying power - Malaysia will lose more without the HSR - because Singaporeans will not take HSR to Malaysia.
(2) Will Singapore lose China tourists?
Not really.
Why?
a. How long China fly to Malaysia and Singapore - 4 hours.
b. Budget airline - cheap ticket.
How much ECRL is going to charge customer?
a. Will it be cheaper than budget airline? Probably not - else cannot recoup capital cost.
b. How long China tourist need to sit on the rail travelling from China to Malaysia and Singapore ---- more than 10 hours? (Back ache, backside ache) --- and tourist may prefer to take budget airline.
So is Singapore afraid HSR will be cancel and lose China tourists - not afraid.
So is Malaysia more afraid of losing Singapore tourists? Very afraid.
Like · Reply · 1m
Felicia Chen
A DISHONOURABLE SON's greatest FEAR of being "cut-off" finally materialised!
This is one of Mahathir's RETALIATIONS in cooperation with PRC Xi who bears deep grudges against a DISHONOURABLE SON's silly China jokes of "free pork soup" n "free smoke", and sucking to US with military naval base n purchase of F-35s!!!
Be very very worried!!!
#DISHONOURABLES!!!
This is one of Mahathir's RETALIATIONS in cooperation with PRC Xi who bears deep grudges against a DISHONOURABLE SON's silly China jokes of "free pork soup" n "free smoke", and sucking to US with military naval base n purchase of F-35s!!!
Be very very worried!!!
#DISHONOURABLES!!!
Ricky Lim
(1) While we offer US to berth their littoral ships in Singapore.
We also lease China 3 mega berths at our Tuas Megaport.
(2) Our decision to purchase F35s is based on our operational needs.
And so far, only US F35s can meet our operational needs.
China did not offer to sell their stealth fighter but offer to sell export variant of other fighter.
Russia also offer to sell export variant of their stealth fighters.
But both China and Russia and Europe are not able to meet the following technical specifications and operational needs required by us :-
(i) Stealth - where F35s have proven in combat that no air defense and fighters can detect it with their radar.
(ii) F35Bs are capable of short take off and vertical land - & not possible by China, Russia or Europe fighters (except jumpJet Harrier - obsolete now) - as Singapore has limited airbases.
We can land F35Bs in many places - greatly enhancing our fighter planes survivability and strike capability if our airbases come under attack.
(iii) US plane technologies (even with some hiccups) have proven technically superior and reliable and very effective in air battle and ground attack - this is a track record that is known to everyone.
(iii) Seamless integration with our other military assets - where F35s provide a superior integration that will be a gamechanger in air-warfare and ground-support warfare.
Singapore buy our military assets with rigorous technical evaluation and the ability to make a huge difference in operation and real mission --- not based on political affiliation.
We have bought military assets from all over the World not only from US - including Russia --- as long as they can be integrated into a unified fighting force that make the difference and give us the added advantage - if in the event it come to the crux and we need to use it.
We also lease China 3 mega berths at our Tuas Megaport.
(2) Our decision to purchase F35s is based on our operational needs.
And so far, only US F35s can meet our operational needs.
China did not offer to sell their stealth fighter but offer to sell export variant of other fighter.
Russia also offer to sell export variant of their stealth fighters.
But both China and Russia and Europe are not able to meet the following technical specifications and operational needs required by us :-
(i) Stealth - where F35s have proven in combat that no air defense and fighters can detect it with their radar.
(ii) F35Bs are capable of short take off and vertical land - & not possible by China, Russia or Europe fighters (except jumpJet Harrier - obsolete now) - as Singapore has limited airbases.
We can land F35Bs in many places - greatly enhancing our fighter planes survivability and strike capability if our airbases come under attack.
(iii) US plane technologies (even with some hiccups) have proven technically superior and reliable and very effective in air battle and ground attack - this is a track record that is known to everyone.
(iii) Seamless integration with our other military assets - where F35s provide a superior integration that will be a gamechanger in air-warfare and ground-support warfare.
Singapore buy our military assets with rigorous technical evaluation and the ability to make a huge difference in operation and real mission --- not based on political affiliation.
We have bought military assets from all over the World not only from US - including Russia --- as long as they can be integrated into a unified fighting force that make the difference and give us the added advantage - if in the event it come to the crux and we need to use it.
Ricky Lim
Singapore relationship with China and US - are both special one.
(1) Singapore with China - have ancestral roots for many Chinese citizens.
Naturally we wish Singapore and China relationship to be good and pervasive - and hope both Singapore and China will continue to do well and better.
(2) Singapore with US - are long term friends and we have good relationship for many decades and both have mutually benefitted from the good relationship.
Naturally, we will also hope that both Singapore and US do well.
(3) Both China and US are pivotal in ensuring Global Wealth, Prosperity and Peace (of course with Russia and Europe - also playing a vital role).
We will not want to see China and US engage in any hostility that hurt the Global Economy or worst engage in War - that will trigger WW3.
Singapore has all along have military ties and security ties with US - and we will want to maintain that.
Singapore is also actively promoting military relationship with China - in other ways in addition to our strong Economic ties.
By doing so, we hope to be an honest broker between China and US - if things turn ugly and may lead to military confrontation --- where no Countries in the World want to see.
Because it will mean WW3 - nuclear war, space war, hypersonic war, aircraft carrier war --- flying all over the places - and no Countries will be spare.
(1) Singapore with China - have ancestral roots for many Chinese citizens.
Naturally we wish Singapore and China relationship to be good and pervasive - and hope both Singapore and China will continue to do well and better.
(2) Singapore with US - are long term friends and we have good relationship for many decades and both have mutually benefitted from the good relationship.
Naturally, we will also hope that both Singapore and US do well.
(3) Both China and US are pivotal in ensuring Global Wealth, Prosperity and Peace (of course with Russia and Europe - also playing a vital role).
We will not want to see China and US engage in any hostility that hurt the Global Economy or worst engage in War - that will trigger WW3.
Singapore has all along have military ties and security ties with US - and we will want to maintain that.
Singapore is also actively promoting military relationship with China - in other ways in addition to our strong Economic ties.
By doing so, we hope to be an honest broker between China and US - if things turn ugly and may lead to military confrontation --- where no Countries in the World want to see.
Because it will mean WW3 - nuclear war, space war, hypersonic war, aircraft carrier war --- flying all over the places - and no Countries will be spare.
Like · Reply · 1m
Ricky Lim
Singapore investment in China is huge.
(1) For example, Singapore has invested in Chongqing Belt and Road Initiative more than US$20 billion - to help Chongqing to become a transport hub for 9 provinces - and build the Southern Transport Corridor from Western China to Singapore.
(2) Singapore is the hub port of South East Asia connecting 9 ASEAN Countries.
(3) Singapore is the connectivity hub to the rest of the World - via International maritime route.
The Southern Transport Corridor Connectivity between Chongqing and Singapore using inter-modal transport system - has reduced transport time into 10 days (cutting 15 days in sea travel).
In addition, Singapore and China have embarked on multi-service collaboration in many services to complement the port-connectivity --- and make Singapore ports and China ports an integral part of the maritime transport ---- regardless of :-
(i) a shorter path open up by melting of ice along the Arctic route.
(ii) ECRL
(iii) Mandalay route to Indian Ocean
(iv) Old silk route via Pakistan
(v) via Pacific Ocean
vi) via kra canal if there is one.
or any other access path.
(1) For example, Singapore has invested in Chongqing Belt and Road Initiative more than US$20 billion - to help Chongqing to become a transport hub for 9 provinces - and build the Southern Transport Corridor from Western China to Singapore.
(2) Singapore is the hub port of South East Asia connecting 9 ASEAN Countries.
(3) Singapore is the connectivity hub to the rest of the World - via International maritime route.
The Southern Transport Corridor Connectivity between Chongqing and Singapore using inter-modal transport system - has reduced transport time into 10 days (cutting 15 days in sea travel).
In addition, Singapore and China have embarked on multi-service collaboration in many services to complement the port-connectivity --- and make Singapore ports and China ports an integral part of the maritime transport ---- regardless of :-
(i) a shorter path open up by melting of ice along the Arctic route.
(ii) ECRL
(iii) Mandalay route to Indian Ocean
(iv) Old silk route via Pakistan
(v) via Pacific Ocean
vi) via kra canal if there is one.
or any other access path.
Like · Reply · 1m · Edited
Pher Kim Huat
Ricky Lim , spot on. All news readers should also have read and aware that within few weeks, S'pore's two (2) deputy Prime Ministers in Mr. Tharman and Mr Teo visited China respectively and were warmly received by China. Both are there to prrsue long-term business plan, enhance friendship further among the younger ministers to ensure continuity, talks on further investment and trades, etc.
Our PM Lee is also be visiting Beijing shortly to attend the BRI forum.
Don't think we need to worry too much about ECRL project which is like you said more viable in passenger-based than cargo-based transportation.
Our PM Lee is also be visiting Beijing shortly to attend the BRI forum.
Don't think we need to worry too much about ECRL project which is like you said more viable in passenger-based than cargo-based transportation.
Like · Reply · 17h
Ricky Lim
Pher Kim Huat -
There are always competition who want to share our pies.
Our strategic location has always been our blessings.
But we cannot count on it as eternal - that good things will always be on our side.
There are so many access path that Countries are trying to open up - that will threaten our maritime business.
Thus be grateful that our Government has tremendous foresight and vision to be able to plan ahead, re-strategise and overcome threats, turn it to opportunities.
We have since move on to focus on "software" and "services" to complement our physical location and hardware infrastructure to reinforce our Global Maritime Hub and strategic position.
This strategy of "virtual is physical", "physical is virtual" --- has reinforced and strengthen our maritime trade.
Singaporeans must be grateful to our Government to be able to overcome tremendous adversities -- and emerged stronger in our Economic Growth.
What our current Government has done - is equivalent to the feat that Mr LKY has done to secure Singapore as a Global Maritime Port.
We are very lucky to have this batch of Government who are able to hold the fort - and will emerge stronger for many years to come.
There are always competition who want to share our pies.
Our strategic location has always been our blessings.
But we cannot count on it as eternal - that good things will always be on our side.
There are so many access path that Countries are trying to open up - that will threaten our maritime business.
Thus be grateful that our Government has tremendous foresight and vision to be able to plan ahead, re-strategise and overcome threats, turn it to opportunities.
We have since move on to focus on "software" and "services" to complement our physical location and hardware infrastructure to reinforce our Global Maritime Hub and strategic position.
This strategy of "virtual is physical", "physical is virtual" --- has reinforced and strengthen our maritime trade.
Singaporeans must be grateful to our Government to be able to overcome tremendous adversities -- and emerged stronger in our Economic Growth.
What our current Government has done - is equivalent to the feat that Mr LKY has done to secure Singapore as a Global Maritime Port.
We are very lucky to have this batch of Government who are able to hold the fort - and will emerge stronger for many years to come.
Niko Nishi
Wasn't it previously reported that China is offering a 50% discount to the ECRL because the project is too important to China’s OBOR to give up without a fight? I guess Malaysia prefers a 30% than a 50% discount and maybe ask China to throw in a Jho Low as sweetener. Wow, Mahathir and Daim prefer to pay China US$11B then paying US$8B for the ECRL just to get Jho. Interesting.
黄柏安
With the development of malacca port and ecrl, goods can be loaded and unloaded at the malacca port and transported thru ecrl without passing thru Singapore.
陈金宝
Yes, that's China's main objective as they are wary of energy supplies being blocked by the US navy fleet in S'pore in case of conflict. So China don't mind the hassle of transfer from sea to land then to sea again. But sea vessels from other countries may find it too big a hassle. So most are still likely to continue using S'pore port facilities. It is like if you have a choice of using MRT straight to your destination, as compared to using bus then transfer to MRT then transfer to bus again, most will still prefer MRT as the single mode of transport even though it will be more expensive
黄柏安
陈金宝 ecrl will be linked to the railway in Thailand and then to China, so there is no need for sea shipment and this can save time and money. Malacca port will be taking away businesses from Singapore. That's why Dr. M is keen to visit China again. On the other hand, it is unlikely that the high speed railway between kl and Singapore will go ahead.
陈金宝
黄柏安 Thanks for the info. Indeed will take away some of the port business away from S'pore. But it is not a game-changer for sure. The "killer" will be IF one day Thailand agrees to create a canal across its kra of isthmus. As for the possibility that the KLSG bullet train project may not proceed, by all means cancel it. Better to channel the money towards building more water desalination plants in SG
Ali Gandh
It will only benefit China to Malaysia is a Waste of this Project
Georgie Tan
Cost reduced by RM21.5 billion but distance also cut by 40KM. Is there a 30% saving?
Li Ren Zeng
Distance cut by 40 km out of 600+ km, that is only less than 10% cut in distance, but over 30% cut in cost. That is quite a lot of savings. Furthermore, the ECRL still serves the original purpose of linking South China Sea to Straits of Malacca. I think we really should hats off to Dr M. for his ability to negotiate such that that even big countries like China has to give in to him partially. He really knows what is at stake and what is the purpose.
Tonyle Tan
黄柏安 But he should not have bad mouthed so much
Like · Reply · 5m
Niko Nishi
Li Ren Zeng NST reported that "One source close to the Malaysian negotiating team tells StarBiz that for the price to be lower, the ECRL will adopt single-tracking and not double-tracking, as the passenger and freight traffic flow is expected to be low due to sparse population and low investments in the states of Pahang, Terengganu and Kelantan.
A single-track railway is a railway where trains travelling in both directions share the same track. A double-track railway involves running one track in each direction. The cheaper single track is for lesser-used lines."
A single-track railway is a railway where trains travelling in both directions share the same track. A double-track railway involves running one track in each direction. The cheaper single track is for lesser-used lines."
Paul Lee
If the project is cancelled, Malaysia will have to pay RM20 billion in compensation. To proceed, it will cost RM44 billion. It is a no brainer to proceed with the project.
Like · Reply · 24m
Shrio Tang
RM68 million/km is so darn expensive. Are they planning to build a hotel at every km??
Like · Reply · 28m
Khin Maung Nyein
I think China is building ECRL for one option among others. China & Myanmar are about to sign a new rail contract between Yunan to Mandalay. Soon Rail linking between Mandalay to Yangon & Kyauk Phyu Port will be entailing.Once Indian Ocean access from China is being connected, trade between China to Africa & Middle East will be opened as another link for a growing China South Western Region. If I am not mistaken, new ECRL has only one rail track instead of two tracks as per previous plan. Few stations will be dropped to bring down cost.
Lilian Chang
Shorter route naturally cost is lower, China wont cancel or postpone project...LOL
Like · Reply · 6m
Georgie Tan
To think of it actually there is no saving because there is a change from the first blue print to the new one. It is a way the show people that there is 30% saving. The different is the interest payment on the long term loan. China is not stupid to give such huge discount.
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