Read more at https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/singapore/singapore-must-prepare-to-deal-with-us-china-trade-war-fallout-11533274
(Updated: )
Lam Chian Leong
(1) With rising protectionism, fragmentation of economies is happening.
(2) US is getting more isolated - and is using unilateralism to force "hub and spoke" model in trade - pushed by Trump.
US GDP is about US$19 trillion.
(3) EU is a strong Economic bloc - but with UK pushing for Brexit - fragmentation and crack occur in EU.
EU GDP is about US$21 trillion.
If UK brexit from EU, EU GDP is about US$17 trillion.
(4) Asia Pacific as a whole are still strong and adhering to multi-lateral trade.
Asia Pacific GDP is about US$32 trillion.
(5) Canada and Mexico also see a crack as economic bloc with US.
Canada GDP is about US$1.82 trillion.
Mexico GDP is about US$1.18 trillion.
In total both Canda and Mexico GDP is about US $3 trillion.
(6) The rest of the World GDP is about US$6 trillion.
(7) The World Total GDP is US$81 trillion.
Minus US GDP of $19 trillion who is protectionist, we can target US$62 trillion for Global trade.
(8) Using digital economy to link up Countries who are willing to trade in multi-lateral platform - we can achieve virtuall connectivity to further grow our trade and cushion ourselves from the impact of US trade war against China and the rest of the World.
(2) US is getting more isolated - and is using unilateralism to force "hub and spoke" model in trade - pushed by Trump.
US GDP is about US$19 trillion.
(3) EU is a strong Economic bloc - but with UK pushing for Brexit - fragmentation and crack occur in EU.
EU GDP is about US$21 trillion.
If UK brexit from EU, EU GDP is about US$17 trillion.
(4) Asia Pacific as a whole are still strong and adhering to multi-lateral trade.
Asia Pacific GDP is about US$32 trillion.
(5) Canada and Mexico also see a crack as economic bloc with US.
Canada GDP is about US$1.82 trillion.
Mexico GDP is about US$1.18 trillion.
In total both Canda and Mexico GDP is about US $3 trillion.
(6) The rest of the World GDP is about US$6 trillion.
(7) The World Total GDP is US$81 trillion.
Minus US GDP of $19 trillion who is protectionist, we can target US$62 trillion for Global trade.
(8) Using digital economy to link up Countries who are willing to trade in multi-lateral platform - we can achieve virtuall connectivity to further grow our trade and cushion ourselves from the impact of US trade war against China and the rest of the World.
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Lam Chian Leong
(1) (a) CPTPP multilateral trade agreement is a good platform that link some Countries in Asia, North America (minus US) and South America - across 3 Continents in an 11 Countries multi-lateral trade deal (and new members who are ready to meet the stringent comprehensive trade requirement can join).
(b) CPTPP bring together 11 Countries of US$10 trillion GDP that make up 13% of World Total GDP.
(c) Through CPTPP, Singapore can benefit from the US$500 billion that will be generated from this platform - 1.1% of the World Total GDP.
(b) CPTPP bring together 11 Countries of US$10 trillion GDP that make up 13% of World Total GDP.
(c) Through CPTPP, Singapore can benefit from the US$500 billion that will be generated from this platform - 1.1% of the World Total GDP.
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Lam Chian Leong
Lam Chian Leong
(2) Next will be the RCEP, the mammoth largest Economic Bloc that will ever formed if ratified by end of 2019.
(a) Prospective RCEP member states accounted for a population of 3.4 billion people with a total Gross Domestic Product (GDP, PPP) of $49.5 trillion, or US$32 trillion (GDP nominal) approximately 39 percent of the world's GDP, with the combined GDPs of China and India making up more than half that amount.
(b) Singapore will greatly benefitted from this mega multi-lateral trade deal when ratified --- and will be able to cushion by the fallout from Trump-led US trade war against China and the World.
(a) Prospective RCEP member states accounted for a population of 3.4 billion people with a total Gross Domestic Product (GDP, PPP) of $49.5 trillion, or US$32 trillion (GDP nominal) approximately 39 percent of the world's GDP, with the combined GDPs of China and India making up more than half that amount.
(b) Singapore will greatly benefitted from this mega multi-lateral trade deal when ratified --- and will be able to cushion by the fallout from Trump-led US trade war against China and the World.
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Lam Chian Leong
(3) If one day, Asia-Pacific is able to achieve 2 MEGA Economic Bloc Union ---- by integrating with EU Economic Bloc ---- RCEP-EU multi-lateral trade --- then a potential US$32 trillion (RCEP) + US$21 trillion (EU) = US$53 trillion Economic Bloc will be achieved.
(a) Trump-led US will be shivering in the pant - as its mere US$19 trillion will be pale in comparison to RCEP (US$32 trillion) + EU (US$21 trillion) economic union --- and it will be a good lesson from Trump to isolate itself and work towards a "hub and spoke" economic model --- instead of Global Mutual Beneficial Multi-lateral Economic Union.
(a) Trump-led US will be shivering in the pant - as its mere US$19 trillion will be pale in comparison to RCEP (US$32 trillion) + EU (US$21 trillion) economic union --- and it will be a good lesson from Trump to isolate itself and work towards a "hub and spoke" economic model --- instead of Global Mutual Beneficial Multi-lateral Economic Union.
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Lam Chian Leong
Lam Chian Leong
(4) Another configuration is to achieve 2 MEGA Economic Bloc Union ---- by integrating with EU Economic Bloc ---- CPTPP-EU multi-lateral trade --- then a potential US$10 trillion (CPTPP) + US$21 trillion (EU) = US$31 trillion Economic Bloc will be achieved.
Lam Chian Leong
(1) Unity is Strength.
(2) Unilateralism is Failure.
(3) The World must teach an expensive lesson for those who advocate Protectionism ---- and make 1930 tariff war and 2018-2019 tariff war a "BIG FLOP".
(4) The World can stop a 1930 WW2 trigger by tariff war ---- and turn the "Great Adversity" into "Great Opportunity".
(2) Unilateralism is Failure.
(3) The World must teach an expensive lesson for those who advocate Protectionism ---- and make 1930 tariff war and 2018-2019 tariff war a "BIG FLOP".
(4) The World can stop a 1930 WW2 trigger by tariff war ---- and turn the "Great Adversity" into "Great Opportunity".
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Lam Chian Leong
(1) Thus to resolve this 2019 tariff war (to prevent World Recession or worst WW3) - that mirror the 1930 Great Depression tariff war that led to World War 2 ---- two (2) principles applied :-
(a) 能知 - 见闻觉知。(Know what is coming - 1930 historical experience)
(b) 能生 - 能生万法。(Turn "great adversity" - into "Great Opportunities")
般若智慧，如来智慧。---- （真心 不是 妄心）
(a) 能知 - 见闻觉知。(Know what is coming - 1930 historical experience)
(b) 能生 - 能生万法。(Turn "great adversity" - into "Great Opportunities")
般若智慧，如来智慧。---- （真心 不是 妄心）
Christopher Goh
Yes, stop betting on China, their economy is too over leveraged , its imploding v soon.
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