Monday, May 27, 2019

Japan says Trump's comment reflected hope for progress in trade talks by August
Read more at https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/asia/japan-says-trump-s-comment-reflected-hope-for-progress-in-trade-talks-by-august-11571072

28 May 2019 10:24AM
Lam Chian Leong
The United States is in the middle of an expensive trade war with China, and trade tension is also simmering with Japan and the European Union.
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(1) If China, Japan and EU don't agree with US trade talk - wonder what will be the impact on US consumers and business?

(2) The Global supply chain are not via bilateral trade only (as many parts and components come from many Countries).

(3) It involve many Countries - and cannot be disrupted by coercion bilaterally.
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Lam Chian Leong
(1) US trade to the World is only US$4.2 trillion out of US total GDP of US$19 trillion - a mere 22% of its total GDP.

(2) In 2018, the U.S. trade deficit in goods was $891 billion. The United States exported $1.672 trillion in goods. The biggest categories were commercial aircraft, automobiles, and food. It imported $2.563 trillion. The largest categories were automobiles, petroleum, and cell phones.

(3) US trade deficit merely make up 4.7% of its total GDP.

(4) Why will Trump spend so much time hammering all its trading partner for such a meagre sum - offending all its trading partners, cause imported inflation to US consumers, impacting US business, disrupting the Global Supply Chain?
It doesn't make sense.

(5) Because Trump merely want to look at numbers - and then boast to his voters that he is hammering the trade deficit - in order to win election by brute force - never mind if he bring down the Global Economy.

(6) A real selfish attitude of "I am OK is OK", "you are not ok is ok for me" - because I got might, and if you are damned is your business.

(7) It is thus very difficult to sing discourse and try to reason out with Trump --- because "he is full of himself" and he want his way.


(8) He is highly ego-centric and he want to win in all ways. Before he enter politics, in business. he hammer all his contractors, pay them short or refused to pay them. And now he manifested similar behavior to many of his trading partners.
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Pher Kim Huat
From his businessman background, Trump seems to just use his "business tactics" to deal with other countries in this world but nothing great even for America ?
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Lam Chian Leong
Pher Kim Huat -
(1) Trump is not a strategist.

(2) Trump is only good at short term tactics - 1-2 to achieve short term goals.

(3) But Trump lack vision for the bigger picture - that is in effect getting US more and more isolated from the World and dismantling the Global Supply Chain and Trade partners that benefit US.

(4) In the long run, US will lose out.
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Lam Chian Leong
(1) Trade, business and investment is a powerful enabler in projecting Global influence and World leadership - because it bring mutual benefits to US and the World.

(2) The World is willing to forge partnership with US for both trade and security - due to peace, prosperity and wealth brought about by US trade, business and investment - that make US great.

(3) But now Trump because of his pettiness, failure to see the big picture, want to win at all cost - have offended not only his trading partners cum strategic competitors but also many of his allies and close business partners.

(4) This will make him more and more isolated with the World - and cause US to lose Global leadership, influence and Countries are less likely to safeguard his interest - because Trump hurt other Countries interests - including its close allies.

(5) China on the other hand build BRI, maintain multi-lateral trade and business - will in effect make more friends and bring other Countries closer to China while distance from Trump-led US - and eventually US will lose its geopolitical influence worldwide.

(6) Japan driving the CPTPP multi-lateral trade - will also help to create goodwill and trade in Asia Pacific and maintain its influence.

(7) So Trump is indeed "penny wise but pound foolish" - a lousy strategician, want to be a shrewd tactician to show his voters how smart he is compare to his predecessors --- but eventually will get US more and more isolated.

(8) In addition, Trump's stance against immigrants will also make US weaker - as global talents will stop flocking to US - and US R&D will go downhill.

(9) No Countries as big like US and China can ignore global talents - if it want innovation, creation and hi-tech to drive its industries ---- everyone can see that US is losing its lead in 5G, AI, quantum tech in IT etc to China.
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黄柏安
China can say no, Japan also can say no to the unreasonable demands of the idiotic Lighthizer. It showed that the problem actually lies with United States. Abe volunteers to help trump to resolve the problem between United States and Iran also shows that Japan's power of influence is far greater than that of the US. It is a big slap on trump's face.
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