Read more at https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/singapore/lee-hsien-loong-speech-2019-shangri-la-dialogue-11585954
(Updated: )
Lam Chian Leong
To unravel the rivalry of US and China
Step 1 – Urge both US and China to take 1 step backward
Adopt a conciliatory wholesome concept known as "Empathy" – with the following vision (to prevent "Cold War" or worst degenerate into long-term tension and even conflict)
“Friends with All.
Adversary with None.
Forge Mutual Benefits with Win-Win Outcome.
Step 1 – Urge both US and China to take 1 step backward
Adopt a conciliatory wholesome concept known as "Empathy" – with the following vision (to prevent "Cold War" or worst degenerate into long-term tension and even conflict)
“Friends with All.
Adversary with None.
Forge Mutual Benefits with Win-Win Outcome.
Lam Chian Leong
Step 2 - Understand the destructive effect of long term tension and confrontation
(1) It is a no brainer that US and China should not confront and clash militarily - because by doing so - it will be a MAD proposition (Mutually Assured Destruction).
(2) With weapons that are unstoppable such as hypersonic missiles, nuclear weapons, carrier-killer, satellite killer etc --- mutually assured destruction is a guarantee - and "end of humanity" is a guarantee.
(3) Under such context, why should Countries take side - for "mutual destruction"?
(4) Only constructive engagement between US and China - is the only way to resolve problem.
(6) And constructive engagement through trade, business and investment are "peace guarantor" to ensure confrontation and conflict will not take place.
(7) The moment trade, business and investment are remove from mutual engagement - it is difficult to ensure military confrontation and tension will not arise.
(1) It is a no brainer that US and China should not confront and clash militarily - because by doing so - it will be a MAD proposition (Mutually Assured Destruction).
(2) With weapons that are unstoppable such as hypersonic missiles, nuclear weapons, carrier-killer, satellite killer etc --- mutually assured destruction is a guarantee - and "end of humanity" is a guarantee.
(3) Under such context, why should Countries take side - for "mutual destruction"?
(4) Only constructive engagement between US and China - is the only way to resolve problem.
(6) And constructive engagement through trade, business and investment are "peace guarantor" to ensure confrontation and conflict will not take place.
(7) The moment trade, business and investment are remove from mutual engagement - it is difficult to ensure military confrontation and tension will not arise.
Lam Chian Leong
Step 3a – Understand that resolution of trade deal between US and China – is a “Peace Guarantor” that will prevent military conflict from unravelling
(1) The equaliser that bring peace is "Trade" (Commerce, Business, Investment) - which bring "Mutual Benefits" (through Mutual Prosperity).
(2) Thus skirmishes, confrontation and conflict will be greatly reduced - as there are no incentives to fight one another - and cause mutual destruction - as "Commerce" maintain and build Countries relationship.
(3) But when "Trade" breakdown - "Mutual Benefits and Mutual Prosperity" are no longer the equaliser that keep relationship between and among the Countries together. Then chances of military skirmishes become possible.
(4) The tariff trade war brought about by Trump and the subsequent breakdown in the trade talk with China --- is now making South China Sea a potential "hotspot" for conflict --- as temper rise and tension may rise.
(5) In the 1930s, when US started a tariff trade war with the whole World - World War 2 erupted shortly after.
(6) The current tariff trade war launch by Trump - mirror the 1930 tariff trade war launch by US.
(1) The equaliser that bring peace is "Trade" (Commerce, Business, Investment) - which bring "Mutual Benefits" (through Mutual Prosperity).
(2) Thus skirmishes, confrontation and conflict will be greatly reduced - as there are no incentives to fight one another - and cause mutual destruction - as "Commerce" maintain and build Countries relationship.
(3) But when "Trade" breakdown - "Mutual Benefits and Mutual Prosperity" are no longer the equaliser that keep relationship between and among the Countries together. Then chances of military skirmishes become possible.
(4) The tariff trade war brought about by Trump and the subsequent breakdown in the trade talk with China --- is now making South China Sea a potential "hotspot" for conflict --- as temper rise and tension may rise.
(5) In the 1930s, when US started a tariff trade war with the whole World - World War 2 erupted shortly after.
(6) The current tariff trade war launch by Trump - mirror the 1930 tariff trade war launch by US.
Lam Chian Leong
Step 3b – Learn from historical lesson of 1930 Deep Depression trigger by US tariff trade war – the collapse of Global Economy - the uprising of white race supremancy - that lead to World War 2
(1) It will have a serious consequences if US tariff trade war run out of control.
(2) Frantic attempts to shore up the economies of individual nations through protectionist policies, such as the 1930 U.S. Smoot–Hawley Tariff Act and retaliatory tariffs in other countries, exacerbated the collapse in global trade. By 1933, the economic decline had pushed world trade to one-third of its level just four years earlier.
(3) The 1930s were dominated by the Great Depression in the United States and the rise of Nazi Germany in Europe. This momentous decade ended with the beginning of World War II in Europe with Nazi Germany's invasion of Poland in September 1939.
(4) Hopefully both US and China understand the serious implication and consequences of not resolving the trade war between US and China.
It can tear the peace, wealth and global economic growth apart – and can even lead to disastrous consequences unimaginable – if the long term tension spin out of control.
(1) It will have a serious consequences if US tariff trade war run out of control.
(2) Frantic attempts to shore up the economies of individual nations through protectionist policies, such as the 1930 U.S. Smoot–Hawley Tariff Act and retaliatory tariffs in other countries, exacerbated the collapse in global trade. By 1933, the economic decline had pushed world trade to one-third of its level just four years earlier.
(3) The 1930s were dominated by the Great Depression in the United States and the rise of Nazi Germany in Europe. This momentous decade ended with the beginning of World War II in Europe with Nazi Germany's invasion of Poland in September 1939.
(4) Hopefully both US and China understand the serious implication and consequences of not resolving the trade war between US and China.
It can tear the peace, wealth and global economic growth apart – and can even lead to disastrous consequences unimaginable – if the long term tension spin out of control.
Lam Chian Leong
Step 4 – What should Singapore do to manage the Adversity in the larger environment that confront us in trade, business, investment etc?
(1) Strengthen our 1st inner circle - Maintain ASEAN centrality (US$3 trillion market) in trade, business, investment – and promote more economic growth eg. Hasten the implementation of Digital eCommerce to grow our economic pie.
(2) Work actively to conclude the 2nd inner circle (Asia Pacific) – RCEP (US$32 trillion) multi-lateral trade – and ensure trade, business and investment can flourish in the biggest economic union in the World (bigger than the current biggest EU market of US$21 trillion).
Note :- China is the 2nd largest Economy, Japan is 3rd largest, India is up and coming. So the Economic Pie in RCEP ---- will be very big for Singapore.
(3) Fully exploit the 3rd inner circle - multi-lateral trade CPTPP (US$10.5 trillion) led by Japan - alternative Global Supply Chain (that link Asia Pacific to South America and North America).
(4) Fully exploit the 4th circle BRI silk route (land and sea) - can also carved out another Supply Chain - "BRI Global Supply Chain" - that connect Asia Pacific RCEP to Central Asia, Middle East, Africa, Europe, South America and North America.
This will in effect carved out 5 Regional & Global Supply Chain :-
- the ASEAN regional supply chain
--- the new RCEP - Asia Pacific Supply Chain
--- and not to forget the CPTPP - alternative Regional Supply Chain (that link 3 continents - Asia Pacific to South America and North America).
--- the BRI inspired - new Global Supply Chain.
--- the now crippled Global Supply Chain - hobble by US-China trade war.
Thus 5 potential "resilience" and "alternative" Regional and Global Supply Chains are build --- and there are no way similar trade war --- can disrupt the Global Supply Chain and Global Trade --- because 5 alternate paths are built.
(6) 脑转了，人转。
人转了，路转。
路转了，山转。
山转了，喜相逢。
(1) Strengthen our 1st inner circle - Maintain ASEAN centrality (US$3 trillion market) in trade, business, investment – and promote more economic growth eg. Hasten the implementation of Digital eCommerce to grow our economic pie.
(2) Work actively to conclude the 2nd inner circle (Asia Pacific) – RCEP (US$32 trillion) multi-lateral trade – and ensure trade, business and investment can flourish in the biggest economic union in the World (bigger than the current biggest EU market of US$21 trillion).
Note :- China is the 2nd largest Economy, Japan is 3rd largest, India is up and coming. So the Economic Pie in RCEP ---- will be very big for Singapore.
(3) Fully exploit the 3rd inner circle - multi-lateral trade CPTPP (US$10.5 trillion) led by Japan - alternative Global Supply Chain (that link Asia Pacific to South America and North America).
(4) Fully exploit the 4th circle BRI silk route (land and sea) - can also carved out another Supply Chain - "BRI Global Supply Chain" - that connect Asia Pacific RCEP to Central Asia, Middle East, Africa, Europe, South America and North America.
This will in effect carved out 5 Regional & Global Supply Chain :-
- the ASEAN regional supply chain
--- the new RCEP - Asia Pacific Supply Chain
--- and not to forget the CPTPP - alternative Regional Supply Chain (that link 3 continents - Asia Pacific to South America and North America).
--- the BRI inspired - new Global Supply Chain.
--- the now crippled Global Supply Chain - hobble by US-China trade war.
Thus 5 potential "resilience" and "alternative" Regional and Global Supply Chains are build --- and there are no way similar trade war --- can disrupt the Global Supply Chain and Global Trade --- because 5 alternate paths are built.
(6) 脑转了，人转。
人转了，路转。
路转了，山转。
山转了，喜相逢。
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