Thursday, January 10, 2019

Singapore, Malaysia maritime dispute: 2 Malaysia vessels still in Singapore waters
Read more at https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/singapore/2-malaysia-vessels-still-in-singapore-waters-maritime-dispute-11108242

 (Updated: )

Now this is provocation.

Just get the PCGs to intercept, board and arrest the crew including the captains and get the PSA pilots to bring the vessels back to Keppel holding area. Since they like to hang around SG waters so much, let's keep them here till M'sia start to cpcb and demand we release both the crew and vessels.
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Wait - before you call PCG to lure the vessels back to Keppel holding area.

Now their intruding vessels into our extended Northern Port Limit (though infringing our Territorial Water) - are in fact making their own ports more congested --- ie. Tanjung Pelepas port.

If anything happen in our extended Northern Port Limit - vessels plying the Straits will be impacted --- affecting their ports - 10.5 TEUs wil be affected.

As for our Tuas Mega Ports - and now the Keppel, Tanjong Pagar Ports, Pasir Panjang Ports and Brani Terminal --- they are not affected by their naval intrusion --- and all our ports and cargo activities are not at all affected --- as ships go through our Southern Ports - via our Southern Port Limit.

Thus you can see that our PCG and Navy vessels will just surround them and monitor them --- but have not yet take any stronger measures.


Moving their intruded ships into our Keppel holding area --- will have impact our cargo flow --- which is a no-no.
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Ricky Lim
Their intruded ships - only serve to "irritate us" as it come into our Territorial Water --- but no impact on our ports activities.

In fact, it will obstruct their own port activites.

If there are accidents in that area --- vessels plying the Straits alongTanjung Pelepas will be impacted - and will affect all their ports activites --- 10.5 TEUs -- slightly less than half of all their port activities.

So Singaporeans --- don't get agitated, don't get slighted, don't lose your cool and react with anger.

Unite behind our Government as we handle the negotiation.


The longer they cause dispute in that area --- the more will impact them than us ---- of course we are not happy about their intrusion into our Territorial Water which is our Sovereignty.

We can afford to be patient and await the outcome of the negotiation --- which will be 2 months later.
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Ricky Lim
In Pedra Branca case --- they did the same thing by intruding many of their government vessels into our Territorial Water.

They also deliver the same messages and acted the same way --- like they do in Tuas now.

But they won't dare to start a war with us ---- because they know our military strength and military forces are far more superior as compared to theirs.

The on and off navy intrusion last for 29 years --- until the case is submitted to the International Courts -- and we won the case and Pedra Branca belong to Singapore.
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Ricky Lim
Ricky Lim
Malaysian Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad was in London on Monday, Oct. 1 2018 to deliver a talk at Chatham House, the Royal Institute of International Affairs.

His talk, “The Future of Democracy in Asia”, discussed his experience during Malaysia’s recent watershed General Elections, as well as the democratic processes in Malaysia.

No war with Singapore

According to Bernama, Malaysia’s state-run news agency, Mahathir said that although negotiations with Singapore on claims over “outstanding issues” (Mahathir used the word “various” instead of “outstanding”, as written by Bernama) were not as successful, Malaysia had no intention to go to war.

Mahathir said that Singapore “may be small”, but it was more powerful than Malaysia. He said that he did not see war as “a means to settle conflicts”.

He said that he’d rather sit down to negotiate, even though there may be no result, than go to war.
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Ricky Lim
Singaporeans man-in-the-street -- should brace ourselves for very long runway --- taking Pedra Branca as a benchmark --- a length of 29 years to resolve the issues (where at that time in Pedra Branca ---- they also intrude their government ships on and off Pedra Branca ---- while we also send our PCG and Navy vessels to confront their intruding vessels.

Now assume the negotiation take another 29 years --- their vessels will also come and go ----- where in long term ---- cargo vessels docking at their Tanjung Pelepas will get irritated as well ---- when they can see and feel the tensions between both sides police and military standoff in our Northern Port Limit.

They may just migrate to our ports.

So the longer the standoff on this Tuas Port Limit ---- the more detriment will be to Malaysia Economic port activities --- and minimal impact to Singapore port activites.

So Singaporeans can afford to be patient, stay cool, stay calm and be constructive --- stand and unite behind our Government when we negotiate with them.

We negotiate from the position of Strength not weakness.

Conversely, Malaysia stand to lose more --- the longer we drag.
LikeReply1mEdited

Ricky Lim
In Mahathir own words :-

"Mahathir said that Singapore “may be small”, but it was more powerful than Malaysia. He said that he did not see war as “a means to settle conflicts”.

He said that he’d rather sit down to negotiate, even though there may be no result, than go to war."

---
So no result is also a good result for us.
And mentally Singaporeans man-in-the-street must be prepard to 打长久战。

Whoever who have stronger stamina, patience and endurance will win.
Singapore must be the one with stronger and longer stamina 
- with stronger psychological resilience.
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Breeke Lo
Ricky Lim dun need stamina and patience.. we hv already lost this psycological and territorial war.
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Ricky Lim
Breeke Lo - No not yet - it is far from over, it is just the beginning.

Taking the benchmark of Pedra Branca 29 years - it is just the beginning.

It is a marathon, we have just started the race.

In fact, we have more than military power - which are fear across the Causeway.
We also have Economic power - unmatch by our antagonist.
We also have Social compact - race and religious harmony.

Most important - we must have political compact - ie. Singaporeans must stand united and support our Government in dealing with this issue.

And political compact - must be translated into long enduring, patience, resilience psychological stamina.

Singaporeans must have this stamina - the stamina of racing a marathon.

Only then, we can achieve good outcomes.

Like I mention in the earlier post - the longer we drag - the more the negative impact will be on Tanjung Pelepas - and they are carrying 10.5 TEUs of cargo goods.
And the dispute is happening right in front of their ports - where cargo ships move in and out of the Straits.
If things turn ugly, their cargo vessels will have to scramble away from the Tanjung Pelepas port.

Contrary, there are no impact on our port activities - as the dispute is at Tuas backside - not at our Tuas Mega Port.

So do you think they have more to worry or we have more to worry?
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Breeke Lo
Ricky Lim you might want to rethink using Pedra Branca as a benchmark - very diff scenario.

1. In PB, the subject of the dispute wasn't intrusion. It was over a new map that Malaysia published, which included the island as their own.

2. PB is 24 nautical miles (45km) from sg mainland, 7.7 nm from Johor. Tuas waters is right under our nose.

If u wish to draw parallels with PB handling (29 years ICJ), u w hv to first remove intruding ships from Tuas waters, so the dispute over boundary maps can be patiently taken up thru ICJ.
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Ricky Lim
Breeke Lo - The scenario you describe is the best scenario for us.
But pragmatically, do you think they will move if we forcibly remove their intrduing ships?

Now let us analyse the current scenario :-
(1) Their Pedemon buoy ship is unarmed with 22 crews.
(2) Their escort ship KM Marudu is armed with 1 Oerlikon 20mm cannon (that can fire 320 rounds per minute) and 1 GPMG 7.62mm

Our 3 Navy Littoral Mission Ships (LMS) are armed with :-
(1) Oto Melara 76 mm super rapid gun
(2) Typhoon Weapon Station
(3) MICA anti-aircraft missiles
(4) Helicopter deck

Our 3 LMS can definitely outshoot their ships - but there may be some collateral damages on our side - if both fire at the same time.
But we will definitely win with some collateral damage.

Of course we can activate our F15SG or F16 - that can fire 2 cruise missiles outside their ships firing range and sink them.

If we force their ships out - the above could be the 2nd worst scenario that is likely to happen.

The worst scenario will be escalated military clashes --- where no choice we will have to commit overwhelming lethal force.

Is this scenario that you want to see it happen?
LikeReply1m

Ricky Lim
BTW, in Pedra Branca case --- it is not Malaysia publish map to include Pedra Branca into their territory.

In fact, the case on the ground is more ugly as compared to Tuas incident.

Both sides confront one another using armed Police and Navy vessels.
I was told by non-official sources that there are attempt to outmaneouvre and "even attempt to ram one another shp".

But all these details are not published or make known to the news.
Press did briefly report that there are standoff on both sides --- but there are not much press coverage unlike in Tuas.

At that time, they have alot of leverages against us :-
(1) eg. if they cut water - Singapore will have no drinking water.
(2) If they cut food supply - Singapore will have no food

The situation at that time is more unbearable to us - for 29 years (but public is not fully aware).

Now they have no leverages against us :-
(1) Our military is very strong
(2) Our Economy and Finance are very strong
(3) Our Social compact is very strong
(4) The best part - they cannot threaten us with water and food cut - because we have diversify and not at their mercy.

Thus all the more, we can afford to be patience.

Across the causeway, they have weak foundation :-
(1) Finance is low and debt is high
(2) Their Tanjung Pelepas port activities will be highly affected if things turn ugly
(3) Their water and food - has little impact on us
(4) We have strong leverages on them in investment, trade and tourism.

So why do we need to over-react?
LikeReply1mEdited

Ricky Lim
Breeke Lo -

(1) According to UNCLOS - any Countries with coastline will have 12 nautical miles as its Territorial Boundaries.

Given that Singapore and Johor have less than 12 nautical miles, this clause does not apply.

But the 2nd clause applies.

(2) Divide the Straits into half - and the mid-way line will be the Territorial Boundaries for each Countries.

Under 2nd clause, Malaysia intruded ships have indeed intrude into Singapore Territorial Boundary - as it is inside our half of the Territorial Water.

Their ships indeed has intruded into our half.
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Breeke Lo
Ricky Lim there were no clear boundary delimitation at that time, which explains why there is no lines till this day, even after PB was judged to be ours. There was an attempt to discuss the boundary but did not come to fruition. Which means, there was no "intrusion" into anyone's waters.. it was as good as international waters.

Tuas is different, we hv patrolled and enforced sovereignty for decades. There is no ambiguity unlike PB. And as mentioned, it is right at our mainland.. the threat to mainland security is magnitudes higher than PB, which was non-existent.
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Breeke Lo
Ricky Lim and your argument of non escalation, does it stay true in the event of a land intrusion on Tuas? Where does the buck stops?
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Ricky Lim
Breeke Lo - Don't worry, we will get what we want.

We will get there - not in short-term but certainly in long term.

They know their limit, land intrusion is out of question - because they know they cannot exceed our tolerance limit.

When it is time to act, I think we will act.

But the current condition, we still have other ways to get what we want without using force.

If you read the firefly loss in the next article - firefly (subsidiary of MAS - malaysia airline) - firefly lose RM$20 million a month over Seletar suspension.

Economic and Finance are the one that will hurt them most.

Military force will be more lethal --- we don't want to use that yet.
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Breeke Lo
Ricky Lim to be clear, you are mistaken, I am not advocating for an armed response to the intrusion. Fighting is not the only way to attack, there are peaceful ways. Diplomatic levers is one, economic levers is another - do we hv none of those in our defence arsenal? In other words, our only defence is force?
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Ricky Lim
Breeke Lo - Yes we have the defense arsenal other than military forces.

How do you know we are not using it now?

Alot of things are very subtle - especially soft power.

Btw, how is the abstaining from crossing into Causeway to dine, shop, and recreation coming along? a whopping RM$50 billion loss to the Malaysia will be "one of the big pain in thousand cut".

Also another softpower - Firefly got burn RM$20 million a month - so it does hurt the Malaysia the finance. The longer they drag, the more they burn. Patience and endurance pay.
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Breeke Lo
Ricky Lim "They know their limit, land intrusion is out of question"

Will anyone be surprise if the old snake starts saying Tuas extension was reclaimed in MY waters and thus they hv the right to occupy it? What would you say to that? ICJ 29 yrs again?

The reality is, he is testing waters, literally. Let him pass, he will grow bolder.
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Breeke Lo - i am quite sure that if the orang tua get bolder - our military force will act.

This will have exceeded our tolerance limit.

For the past few days, I have seen and heard our air force flying our state of the art fighter jets doing drill with more frequent intensity.

Our armed forces are not sitting there doing nothing.
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Breeke Lo
Ricky Lim hope so.
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Philip Chan
Augustine Teo That water area is supposed to be international water. Both MY and SG have no claim to it.
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Ricky Lim
Philip Chan - I think you are wrong.

(1) According to UNCLOS - any Countries with coastline will have 12 nautical miles as its Territorial Boundaries.

Given that Singapore and Johor have less than 12 nautical miles, the 2nd clause applies.

(2) Divide the Straits into half - and the mid-way line will be the Territorial Boundaries for each Countries.

Under 2nd clause, Malaysia intruded ships have indeed intrude into Singapore Territorial Boundary.

It is not in International Water as you claim.
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用李
Fake malaysian cartoonist very good at spreading fake news ah? Territorial War?? How many combat sailors was killed on both side???
Stop your childish nonsense & fake news!!!
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Tricia Lye
So Singapore is a paper tiger. The best our diplomats can do is have a friendly talk.
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Breeke Lo
Still waiting for Minister VB to update on what was discussed with regards to the intrusion of sovereignty. Any minister in line to issue the next FIRM warning? Will there be another open mob? Please update the nation.
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Michael Cheng
as always, untrustworthy prata m. old snake, hurry up and be gone already.
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Tommie Vale
Yawn.. old news. Nothing new. Ships sail in and out of Singapore sea territory and so... what happens next? Nothing. And that’s good news when nothing happens.
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