With the world ‘moving a little closer’ to a trade war, what’s the impact on Singapore?
If a full-blown trade war erupts, export-heavy Singapore may see as much as 0.8 percentage points being shaved off its GDP growth this year, says one economist.
06 Jul 2018 06:28AM (Updated: 06 Jul 2018 06:30AM)
Ricky Lim
As a result of that “bad case scenario”, Ms Fenner said Singapore could see a lower growth figure of 2.9 per cent, instead of 3.1 per cent, this year. For 2019, the impact would be more severe with the economy slowing to 1.7 per cent – a reduction of 0.7 percentage points from Ms Fenner’s initial estimate.
In total, that could mean a loss of S$3.4 billion in GDP in the event of an all-out trade war.
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Wonder with this scenario of losing S$3.4 billion in GDP in the event of an all-out trade war - can it be compensated by other multi-lateral trade deals such as CPTPP, Singapore-EU, China-Singapore trade deal, and the RCEP?
It sounds possible.
Thus there must be increasing impetus to ensure that all the above should expedite to mitigate the trade war launch by Trump.
In total, that could mean a loss of S$3.4 billion in GDP in the event of an all-out trade war.
---
Wonder with this scenario of losing S$3.4 billion in GDP in the event of an all-out trade war - can it be compensated by other multi-lateral trade deals such as CPTPP, Singapore-EU, China-Singapore trade deal, and the RCEP?
It sounds possible.
Thus there must be increasing impetus to ensure that all the above should expedite to mitigate the trade war launch by Trump.
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