Read more at https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/asia/tariffs-china-us-vows-countermeasures-trade-war-10519542
(Updated: )
Ricky Lim
US is a $19 trillion Economy.
China is a $14 trillion Economy.
EU is a $17 trillion Economy.
Total World GDP = $80 trillion Economy. ($61 trillion Economy minus US).
When Trump led US open a trade war with China and EU (plus other Economies) --- the math show that though China and EU will be hurt by Trump trade war ---- US will be the one that is most badly hit ---- especially when the World cooperate to maintain trade while US don't.
US MNCs that do business domestically and overseas - will be the one that is badly impacted.
US consumers will suffer the highest price increase - due to high domestic prices and retaliatory tariff.
US retailers that depend very much on import - for a wide diversity of imports will see a dramatic rise in prices and will hit their business badly.
China is a $14 trillion Economy.
EU is a $17 trillion Economy.
Total World GDP = $80 trillion Economy. ($61 trillion Economy minus US).
When Trump led US open a trade war with China and EU (plus other Economies) --- the math show that though China and EU will be hurt by Trump trade war ---- US will be the one that is most badly hit ---- especially when the World cooperate to maintain trade while US don't.
US MNCs that do business domestically and overseas - will be the one that is badly impacted.
US consumers will suffer the highest price increase - due to high domestic prices and retaliatory tariff.
US retailers that depend very much on import - for a wide diversity of imports will see a dramatic rise in prices and will hit their business badly.
Like · Reply · 1m · Edited
Ricky Lim
Ricky Lim
Note :- the World with ($61 trillion Economy minus US) - will grow if everyone cooperate.
US $19 trillion Economy is dependent on trade to provide it with cheaper resources, material, intermediate goods, finished goods, human resources etc.
Since Trump led US - is fighting trade worldwide ---- US $19 trillion Economy will shrink (demultiplier effect) due to higher prices in resources, material, intermediate goods, finished goods, human resources etc ---- whereas the World with ($61 trillion Economy minus US) - will grow due to multiplier effect - due to market efficiency and price efficiency.
This will be the outcome of the Trump-led trade war.
US $19 trillion Economy is dependent on trade to provide it with cheaper resources, material, intermediate goods, finished goods, human resources etc.
Since Trump led US - is fighting trade worldwide ---- US $19 trillion Economy will shrink (demultiplier effect) due to higher prices in resources, material, intermediate goods, finished goods, human resources etc ---- whereas the World with ($61 trillion Economy minus US) - will grow due to multiplier effect - due to market efficiency and price efficiency.
This will be the outcome of the Trump-led trade war.
Like · Reply · 1m · Edited
Ricky Lim
To quote eg. to illustrate for Trump and Trump supporters to understand :-
Eg. US higher product and services prices at home - eg. 1 smartphone with trade cause $1,000.
But due to trade war, US need to use high price metal, parts, labour cost will sell to US consumers at $2,000.
US consumers will have less disposable income to spend - as all US products and services such as phone, fridge, TV, computers, cars, etc increase across the board.
When consumer consumption drop, demand drop, business stop investment due to lower demand, business revenue fall and profit fall and may even fold up.
US Business cannot sustain business and start retrenchment - lead to job loss.
US income drop, further shrink demand === and US Economy will plummet from $19 trillion to $10 trillion ----- "Demulitplier effect".
Worst, US business cannot export due to high uncompetitive prices and tariff - it become a double whammy for US business and US Economy will plummet at accelerate speed.
Eg. US higher product and services prices at home - eg. 1 smartphone with trade cause $1,000.
But due to trade war, US need to use high price metal, parts, labour cost will sell to US consumers at $2,000.
US consumers will have less disposable income to spend - as all US products and services such as phone, fridge, TV, computers, cars, etc increase across the board.
When consumer consumption drop, demand drop, business stop investment due to lower demand, business revenue fall and profit fall and may even fold up.
US Business cannot sustain business and start retrenchment - lead to job loss.
US income drop, further shrink demand === and US Economy will plummet from $19 trillion to $10 trillion ----- "Demulitplier effect".
Worst, US business cannot export due to high uncompetitive prices and tariff - it become a double whammy for US business and US Economy will plummet at accelerate speed.
Like · Reply · 1m · Edited
Ricky Lim
The rest of the World on the other hand - trade through mulit-lateral trades and FTAs.
Market efficiency and price efficiency is ensured.
Business become competitive, sell at low cost, consumers can afford to buy due to low price.
Business do well and business invest, people got jobs, got income, can spend and buy more --- all this will trigger "Multiplier effect" and World Economy grow.
The World Economy of $61 trillion - will grow to say $80 trillion - due to higher consumption, higher public expenditure, higher export and higher import.
Now does Trump and Trump supporters see - how World can survive and grow while Trump-led US Economy will plummet.
The World will win and Trump-led US will lose ---- eventually.
Market efficiency and price efficiency is ensured.
Business become competitive, sell at low cost, consumers can afford to buy due to low price.
Business do well and business invest, people got jobs, got income, can spend and buy more --- all this will trigger "Multiplier effect" and World Economy grow.
The World Economy of $61 trillion - will grow to say $80 trillion - due to higher consumption, higher public expenditure, higher export and higher import.
Now does Trump and Trump supporters see - how World can survive and grow while Trump-led US Economy will plummet.
The World will win and Trump-led US will lose ---- eventually.
No comments:
Post a Comment