Tuesday, July 10, 2018

US says to slap tariffs on extra US$200 billion of Chinese imports
Read more at https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/world/us-lists-us-200b-in-chinese-goods-to-be-hit-with-tariffs-10518788

 (Updated: )

Ricky Lim
"American families are the ones being punished. Consumers, businesses and the American jobs dependent on trade, are left in the crosshairs of an escalating global trade war,” said Hun Quach, the head of international trade policy for the group.
“Tariffs are taxes, plain and simple. Imposing taxes on another US$200 billion worth of products will raise the costs of every day goods for American families, farmers, ranchers, workers, and job creators. It will also result in retaliatory tariffs, further hurting American workers," a Chamber spokeswoman said.
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Trump has totally ignored the "Mutually Destructive" trade war - that not only hurt others but also its own American people and business groups.

The World must re-configure its entire Global Supply Chain and trade market - to form a "Trade Firewall" against Trump-led US - to prevent Trump reckless and dangerous trade war from harming the World prosperity.
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Ricky Lim
Ricky Lim
Posted on :- 07 Jul 2018 11:14AM (Updated: 07 Jul 2018 11:17AM)

Ricky Lim
However this time ---- if the Whole World co-operate by building a "Trade Firewall" against US ---- it is possible to prevent a "Deep Depression of the 1930s that trigger World War 2".

This is by :-
(1) Forging multi-lateral trade deals like CPTPP, RCEP, EU-ASEAN FTA, BRI etc among many Countries in the World - minus Trump-led US.
(2) Forging bilateral trade deals like China-Singapore FTA, EU-Singapore FTA, India-Singapore FTA, etc....

By doing so, the World is re-configuring the Global Supply chain, Global Trade, Business and Investment (without US) to come out with a new Global Supply chain, Global Trade, Business and Investment.

By doing so, what Trump try to do in Global trade - will have minimal impact on the World.

Whether Trump-led US economy will survive or not is Trump's business - the World can hear less of Trump or what he want to do ---- Trump become a "Total Isolationist" and a "Fully Erected Trade Firewall" is build against Trump led US ----- averting a similar "1930 Deep Depression and the subsequent World War 3".
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Ricky Lim
Posted on :- 07 Jul 2018 11:14AM (Updated: 07 Jul 2018 11:17AM)
Ricky Lim
John Low - The above trend is already happening.
Total World trade of goods and services are $41.6 trillion.

US trade contribute only $4.9 trillion.

EU trade = $5.4 trillion (more than US).
China and HK trade = $5.6 trillion (more than US).

Japan trade = $1.6 trillion.
S Korea trade = $1.1 trillion.
Canada trade = $0.984 trillion.
Singapore trade = $0.917 trillion.
India trade = $0.917 trillion.
Mexico trade = $0.824 trillion.

The World by cooperating (without US) contribute = $36.7 trillion.

You think the World cannot live without US?
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Wai-huat Chee
Ricky Lim Your list is all about trade $.The balance between import and export will clarify why almost every countries need the US market. In your list, only Canada,India and Mexico incurred a deficit in trade ie. import more than export. The rest of the country, China, EU, Japan, S. Korea have a surplus with the US. Especially, China ($350B) and EU ($120B). The US is a major market for all exporting nations.
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Ricky Lim
Wai-huat Chee - I don't deny that US is a big consumer market.
But as US play tough and launch a trade war against all Countries - the World cannot be taken hostage by just 1 Country - and need to re-configure its entire Global Supply Chain, trading patterns, business investment etc - to ensure that the World can continue to prosper.

Economic growth is all about private consumption, public expenditure, export, import --- and the World can work along this line to grow the World Economy (minus US - as US is not a willing global trade partner and economic partner).

The gist of the story is, if US does not want to be part of the Global Economic partner - the World cannot force it on Trump-led US.

The World need to do a massive re-configuration.

In the process, the whole World will get hurt --- but the World despite being hurt need to re-configure to emerge from the pain.

Trump-led US will eventually find itself - out of the World Economic Order - when the re-configuration settle down.
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Wai-huat Chee
Ricky Lim I agreed with you. But the big question is beside exporting to the US,what is the alternative?. Every major economy is centred on export and their internal consumption is lacking.This is a wake up call from Trump to many countries that run an economy based on the export model.
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Ricky Lim
Wai-huat Chee - I was about to explain what alternatives does World have (without US).

(1) There are many Countries whose per capita income are growing, and the middle income groups are growing in wealth.
Eg. of such Countries are China, India, ASEAN (eg. Indonesia, Vietnam, Mynammar are opening up etc) ---- all these Countries have huge domestic market due to their sheer size of population who are becoming more and more wealthy.

By having more multi-lateral trade deals such as RCEP, BRI (that improve infrastructure development so as facilitate physical access by roads, ports, airports etc) - international trade will be boosted and consumption will be boosted.

(2) Bi-lateral trades with developed Countries similar to the consumption pattern and income status like US - such as EU (eg FTA with EU will boost international trade - as it aims to remove tariff, boost cooperation and organised trade) - will ensure that trade, investment, R&D, business, travel etc - that boost economic growth are ensure.

(3) There are other growing Economies like Russia-Central Asia Economic bloc, Latin America bloc, African blocs etc --- that are showing growing wealth with growing middle income groups - that will also fuel consumption and trade.

Singapore are forming FTAs with this growing Economies to promote trade and consumption.

(4) Forging multi-lateral trade such as CP-TPP, RCEP, BRI and other multi-lateral trade deals - will all help to find new markets, new business areas, new investment, new trade groups etc.

All the above will help to mitigate and cushion any fallout from Trump-led US trade war that Trump launch against the World.
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Ricky Lim
山不转路转
路不转人转
人不转脑转。
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