Read more at https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/world/eu-s-juncker-says--not-very-optimistic--about-trump-trade-talks-10561632
(Updated: )
Ricky Lim
But at home, Trump is facing increasing criticism as consumers, farmers and businesses take a hit from the retaliation to the raft of US tariffs on steel, aluminum, and tens of billions of dollars in products from China that he has imposed in recent weeks.
EU Trade Commissioner Cecilia Malmstrom, who is accompanying Juncker, expressed some optimism that a solution could still be found, but also said the EU is drawing up a list of US$20 billion in US products to be targeted for retaliation if the trip fails.
While the US claims the retaliation is "illegal," the Trump administration has acknowledged it is doing damage to American farmers, and on announced it will provide up to US$12 billion in aid to farmers hurt by trade tariffs.
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It is very clear now that Trump's trade war open on China, EU and others - is now hurting American consumers, farmers and businesses.
It is useless for Trump to allocate US$12 billion in aid to farmers hurt by trade tariffs because :-
(1) it is just one off and not sustainable. US farmers will be losing all its customers worldwide from China, EU to others in which Trump start a trade war with.
No other markets will be able to absorb US agriculture export based on its enormous size - and will be a permanent loss.
US farmers as good as saying - can "close shops" already.
EU Trade Commissioner Cecilia Malmstrom, who is accompanying Juncker, expressed some optimism that a solution could still be found, but also said the EU is drawing up a list of US$20 billion in US products to be targeted for retaliation if the trip fails.
While the US claims the retaliation is "illegal," the Trump administration has acknowledged it is doing damage to American farmers, and on announced it will provide up to US$12 billion in aid to farmers hurt by trade tariffs.
--
It is very clear now that Trump's trade war open on China, EU and others - is now hurting American consumers, farmers and businesses.
It is useless for Trump to allocate US$12 billion in aid to farmers hurt by trade tariffs because :-
(1) it is just one off and not sustainable. US farmers will be losing all its customers worldwide from China, EU to others in which Trump start a trade war with.
No other markets will be able to absorb US agriculture export based on its enormous size - and will be a permanent loss.
US farmers as good as saying - can "close shops" already.
Like · Reply · 1m
Ricky Lim
(2) Trump's public debt is US$21 trillion. Debt interest is US$500 biliion per year. With further borrowing of US$12 biliion from banks and lenders, it will further add up its debt and debt interest.
(3) Trump's tax revenue fall due to big tax cut - 1st 5 month receive $1.286 trillion of tax revenue while outlays were $1.677 trillion.
Trump is borrowing further and keep getting credit - that will further add to its debt load.
(4) China has firepower of US$3 trillion in reserve plus US$1trillion of US Treasury bond (one of US largest creditor) to fight US trade war.
Trump is using eggs to throw at stone.
Trump will be resoundly defeated - while US agriculture sector will lose most customers --- as good as can close shop already (as China and EU and others stop buying US farming produces).
The temporary US$12 billon is useless - only meant to please US farmers for the time being and when mid-term election over - Trump will say to the farmers - sorry cannot help you, election over - you are on your own.
(3) Trump's tax revenue fall due to big tax cut - 1st 5 month receive $1.286 trillion of tax revenue while outlays were $1.677 trillion.
Trump is borrowing further and keep getting credit - that will further add to its debt load.
(4) China has firepower of US$3 trillion in reserve plus US$1trillion of US Treasury bond (one of US largest creditor) to fight US trade war.
Trump is using eggs to throw at stone.
Trump will be resoundly defeated - while US agriculture sector will lose most customers --- as good as can close shop already (as China and EU and others stop buying US farming produces).
The temporary US$12 billon is useless - only meant to please US farmers for the time being and when mid-term election over - Trump will say to the farmers - sorry cannot help you, election over - you are on your own.
Like · Reply · 1m · Edited
Ricky Lim
Republican Senator Ben Sasse, a frequent Trump critic, said the president's trade policies recalled a past of perilous economic instability.
"This administration's tariffs and bailouts aren't going to make America great again, they're just going to make it 1929 again," he said in a statement.
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Posted in – Fri 20 Jan, 2017 3:26 AM IST
Avatar
ricky l 0 seconds ago
1930s Deep Depression --- hopefully it will not occur.
It is trigger by US trade war - increase trade tariff against the World - that trigger 1930s Deep Depression.
Hope Donald Trump learned from this - and not repeat the mistake of the 1930s Deep Depression.
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"The decline in the U.S. economy was the factor that pulled down most other countries at first; then, internal weaknesses or strengths in each country made conditions worse or better. Frantic attempts to shore up the economies of individual nations through protectionist policies, such as the 1930 U.S. Smoot–Hawley Tariff Act and retaliatory tariffs in other countries, exacerbated the collapse in global trade.[17] By late 1930, a steady decline in the world economy had set in, which did not reach bottom until 1933."
ricky l 1 second ago
And Deep Depression 1930s --- trigger the 2nd World War.
0
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World War II and recovery
The common view among economic historians is that the Great Depression ended with the advent of World War II. Many economists believe that government spending on the war caused or at least accelerated recovery from the Great Depression, though some consider that it did not play a very large role in the recovery. It did help in reducing unemployment.[11][90][91][92] The rearmament policies leading up to World War II helped stimulate the economies of Europe in 1937–39. By 1937, unemployment in Britain had fallen to 1.5 million. The mobilization of manpower following the outbreak of war in 1939 ended unemployment.[93] When the United States entered into the war in 1941, it finally eliminated the last effects from the Great Depression and brought the U.S. unemployment rate down below 10%.[94] In the U.S., massive war spending doubled economic growth rates, either masking the effects of the Depression or essentially ending the Depression. Businessmen ignored the mounting national debt and heavy new taxes, redoubling their efforts for greater output to take advantage of generous government contracts.[cit
"This administration's tariffs and bailouts aren't going to make America great again, they're just going to make it 1929 again," he said in a statement.
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Posted in – Fri 20 Jan, 2017 3:26 AM IST
Avatar
ricky l 0 seconds ago
1930s Deep Depression --- hopefully it will not occur.
It is trigger by US trade war - increase trade tariff against the World - that trigger 1930s Deep Depression.
Hope Donald Trump learned from this - and not repeat the mistake of the 1930s Deep Depression.
----
"The decline in the U.S. economy was the factor that pulled down most other countries at first; then, internal weaknesses or strengths in each country made conditions worse or better. Frantic attempts to shore up the economies of individual nations through protectionist policies, such as the 1930 U.S. Smoot–Hawley Tariff Act and retaliatory tariffs in other countries, exacerbated the collapse in global trade.[17] By late 1930, a steady decline in the world economy had set in, which did not reach bottom until 1933."
ricky l 1 second ago
And Deep Depression 1930s --- trigger the 2nd World War.
0
----
World War II and recovery
The common view among economic historians is that the Great Depression ended with the advent of World War II. Many economists believe that government spending on the war caused or at least accelerated recovery from the Great Depression, though some consider that it did not play a very large role in the recovery. It did help in reducing unemployment.[11][90][91][92] The rearmament policies leading up to World War II helped stimulate the economies of Europe in 1937–39. By 1937, unemployment in Britain had fallen to 1.5 million. The mobilization of manpower following the outbreak of war in 1939 ended unemployment.[93] When the United States entered into the war in 1941, it finally eliminated the last effects from the Great Depression and brought the U.S. unemployment rate down below 10%.[94] In the U.S., massive war spending doubled economic growth rates, either masking the effects of the Depression or essentially ending the Depression. Businessmen ignored the mounting national debt and heavy new taxes, redoubling their efforts for greater output to take advantage of generous government contracts.[cit
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