Trump's prediction of 'massive recession' puzzles economists
ricky l9 seconds ago
Donald Trump always say things without basis.
Sometimes he contradict himself.
Sometimes he say things and regret it later - and then correct himself.
Sometimes he say things that is outrageous and if implemented - will be catastrophic.
But still many American Republicans still believe in him --- and this make everyone feel scary and wonders what is happening to US.
UipUip1 hour ago
Trump is an unscrupulous businessman. That is the best way to describe him.
People thought Trump is successful therefore he can run a country! That is too naive and simplistic thinking. Attributes of Unscrupulous businessman :
a) Go against original promises and agreed terms
b) Enter into business disputes to gain more either monetary or management control
c) Take advantage of state/federal laws and tax regulations
d) Sequeze small businesses or partners or associates
e) Bribe politicians or authorities for big favours
f) Employ illegal labourers
g)
Trump's prediction of 'massive recession' puzzles economists
By Lucia Mutikani
Reuters
April 4, 2016
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U.S. Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump speaks at a campaign rally in West Allis, Wisconsin, United States, April 3, 2016. REUTERS/Jim YoungMore
By Lucia Mutikani
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Donald Trump's prediction that the U.S. economy was on the verge of a "very massive recession" hit a wall of skepticism on Sunday from economists who questioned the Republican presidential front-runner's calculations.
In an interview with the Washington Post published on Saturday, the billionaire businessman said a combination of high unemployment and an overvalued stock market had set the stage for another economic slump. He put real unemployment above 20 percent.
"We're not heading for a recession, massive or minor, and the unemployment rate is not 20 percent," said Harm Bandholz, chief U.S. economist at UniCredit Research in New York.
The official unemployment rate has declined to 5 percent from a peak of 10 percent in October 2009, according to government statistics. But a different, broader measure of unemployment that includes people who want to work but have given up searching and those working part-time because they cannot find full-time employment is at 9.8 percent.
Coming off a difficult week of campaigning, in which he acknowledged he struggled to articulate his position on abortion among other missteps, Trump's comments to the Post might be some of his most bearish on the economy and financial markets.
"I think we're sitting on an economic bubble. A financial bubble," he said.
Some economists agree the stock market is in a period of overvaluation but do not see that as foretelling a cataclysmic economic downturn originating in the United States.
"Nobody can predict what the stock market is going to do," said Rajeev Dhawan, director of the Economic Forecasting Center at Georgia State University. "I cannot predict a stock market crash, so I cannot predict a recession. I don't see any of the reasons for a recession going forward unless there is a huge problem with the market or there is some catastrophic world event which is beyond the scope of economics."
Sung Won Sohn, an economics professor at California State University Channel Islands in Camarillo, put the probability of an imminent recession at less than 10 percent. "If it happens, it would be because of what is happening overseas, especially in China and Europe," he said.
'U.S. STILL SOLID ENOUGH'
Joel Naroff, chief economist at Naroff Economic Advisors in Pennsylvania, said it would take a "total financial meltdown" to trigger a recession.
"We can get by with Europe growing minimally," he said. "We can get by with China growing modestly because the rest of the U.S. is still solid enough that we can handle weakness in the rest of the world."
The Democratic National Committee criticized Trump for his remarks, saying they "undermine our economy."
Trump's success with voters, despite his sometimes saying things only to contradict them later, has also alarmed many leading figures within his own party. Some of them are openly plotting to try to prevent him from becoming the nominee at the party's national convention in July.
Reince Priebus, the Republican National Committee chairman, said on Sunday that voters were "afraid" of their economic situation, when asked about Trump's remarks on CNN's "State of the Union" show.
"When people are afraid and when they're angry, sometimes people say things that they regret," he said, apparently referring to Trump's remarks.
He also played down speculation that party leaders would seek to dislodge Trump by helping someone who is not even a declared candidate prevail at the convention, which becomes governed by complicated voting rules if no candidate arrives with a clear majority.
"I think that our candidate is someone who's running," Priebus said, referring to Trump, U.S. Senator Ted Cruz of Texas and Ohio Governor John Kasich. The candidates will next face voters on Tuesday in Wisconsin, where recent polls show Cruz holding a small lead over Trump.
(Additional reporting by Richard Cowan and Susan Cornwell; Writing by Jonathan Allen; Editing by Jonathan Oatis and Peter Cooney)
Don't trust Trump, Atlantic City critics warn America
Jennie Matthew
AFP News
April 4, 2016
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New casinos in neighboring states have drawn much of Atlantic City's visitors away, and in 2014 some 8,000 people were layed-off when four of the city's major casinos closedMore
Con Kimura got the best Christmas bonus of his life working for Donald Trump in Atlantic City in 1984. But he still won't vote for him as president.
"Never in a million years," the emphatic 64-year-old retiree told AFP, standing outside the shuttered casino where he worked 30 years ago on the city's famed boardwalk, as a cold wind whipped off the Ocean.
When Kimura was a casino floor supervisor at Trump Plaza from 1984-88, the celebrity New York billionaire was a hero in the New Jersey coastal resort.
The flashy tycoon invested heavily, bringing glitz and glamor -- encouraging tourism after the city legalized gaming in a bid to rescue a sagging economy.
He employed thousands of people. Three of his casinos, Trump Plaza, Trump Castle and the Taj Mahal contracted local businesses to provide services as diverse as liquor, laundry and limousines.
Michael Jackson came to the opening of the Taj in 1990. "Baywatch" beauty Pamela Anderson visited. Mike Tyson boxed his way to victory.
"Being Donald Trump at the time was probably a better gig than being president of the United States," recalls Kimura. "People loved him."
But then things collapsed.
The Taj -- the gaudy construct that late author Harper Lee likened to hell on Earth -- went bankrupt in 1991, a year after opening.
The Plaza followed in 1992. Trump Hotels and Casino Resorts filed for bankruptcy in 2004, as did Trump Entertainment Resorts in 2009.
On the campaign trail, the Republican frontrunner downplays the four corporate bankruptcies as restructuring that did not hurt "nice, sweet little people."
- Devastating impact -
But in a series of interviews with AFP, critics in the largely Democrat town beg to differ. The lesson of their brush with Trump, they say, is: Don't believe him -- he won't deliver what he promises.
It has been years since Trump held any stake in Atlantic City and he boasts of quitting before the city fell into serious recession as other gaming destinations cropped up across the East Coast.
"That's simply not close to the truth," says Steven Perskie, a former judge who wrote the legislation that legalized gaming in Atlantic City and who was chairman of the Casino Control Commission from 1990-94.
"While they were legally entitled to do what they did," said Perskie, "the devastating impact that their decisions had on so many other people and so many other small businesses in this area have never been acknowledged."
When Trump first invested in Atlantic City he told regulators he would never rely on junk bonds as others had done. "Well he did," said Perskie.
"He never invested 10 cents of his own money in any of this," he recalls. "He borrowed it all and he borrowed it under circumstances that... were creating an intolerable risk."
It wasn't just investors who lost millions. Local suppliers went to the wall. Many went out of business or took years to recover, Perskie said.
In 1997 he joined a private law firm, hired by Trump, but which severed ties with the mogul when bills went unpaid for a year or two.
Michael Diehl, 88, was another who got burnt. Since setting up his Freehold Music Center in 1951, he says only one corporate customer ever defaulted -- Trump -- on a $100,000 check for eight Yamaha pianos for the Taj.
When Diehl chased after his payment, he was fobbed off with "all kinds of reasons" until a letter offered 70 percent on the dollar, or 10 cents to the dollar if the casino went bankrupt.
"I had no other choice but accept the 70 percent," Diehl told AFP.
- Small guys lost -
He considers it a telling insight into the would-be president: "He just doesn't care."
"He puts the financial problem on the small guys: the carpenters, the plumbers, the brick layers... they are the ones who lost."
Trump Plaza is now a white elephant. It closed in 2014. The entrance from the Boardwalk has been fenced off. His name has been scrubbed from the building.
"He's not my candidate," said Frank Halfhide, who gives tourists cart rides along the boardwalk. In the off season, he says he's lucky to make $10 a day.
"He's going to tell you exactly what he thinks, right there on the spot, but you can't do that as president," he said. "You're going to get us in a war Donald Trump, you're going to get us all killed."
Disillusioned, he says he won't vote this year.
Despite flinging insults and ensnaring himself in controversy, the billionaire still heads the Republican polls, buoyed by a white, blue collar support base fed up with political elites and struggling to make ends meet.
"How bad can he be? He lost millions, and came back and made billions!" said Joe Angerson, 70, who has driven busloads of tourists to Atlantic City for 25 years. "I believe in the guy, I really do."
A Democrat, he is voting Republican for the first time and has commissioned a sign to put in his yard: "Get off your rump, let's get out of the slump and vote for Trump."
But the message from Kimura and others is don't believe it.
"My friends just think it's sort of a big joke," Kimura said. "How could someone from this area, who saw all that Donald Trump did, ever vote for him?"
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