Sunday, December 2, 2018

Financial resilience key as greater uncertainty looms: Finance Minister Heng Swee Keat
Read more at https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/singapore/financial-resilience-heng-swee-g20-summit-trade-10989388

 (Updated: )

Ricky Lim
Ricky Lim
Posted on :- 30 Nov 2017

Ricky Lim · Singapore
It is thus important to watch out for Trump's "Boom and Bust" budget, fiscal policies (or his "Economic Yo-Yo" policies) - that artificially inflate economic growth (causing a spiking "Boom" for immediate gratification to his voters --- but will cause a sharp correction in the near term causing a sharp downturn correction - a "Bust" --- that will cause US recession --- and have the impact of pulling down the World Economy --- triggering a World Recession --- like in the past.
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Ricky Lim · Singapore
Thus Trump enticing US Congress that has just passed his "Boom and Bust or Yo-Yo" budget policies - must be defeated in the Senate --- and look like it is on the verge of being defeated.

US Senate must stop the irresponsible fiscal budget and pass a responsible budget - for the sake of US and the World that has tight integration with US.
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Ricky Lim · Singapore
Ricky Lim ·
Singapore
Ronald Reagan economic policies - start the accumulation of massive debt for US.
"Reagan has tripled the Gross Federal Debt, from $900 billion to $2.7 trillion."

As of July 31 2017, the federal government’s total debt stands at $19.845 trillion. The nation’s debt is now bigger than its gross domestic product, which was an estimated $19.23 trillion.
Net interest payments on the debt are estimated to total $276.2 billion this fiscal year.

This is known as the "Boom and Bust" fiscal policies and financial policies - to reap immediate gratification to please the voters by "inflating economic growth" - but bring economic bust a few years down the road.

The world has experience cyclic "boom and bust" - because of such policies.

Now Trump want to emulate this irresponsible policies - and you say this is good.

Clinton and Obmama --- are the one that have implemented prudent and pragmatic economic policies - not Trump.
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Ricky Lim
Ricky Lim ·
Singapore
Is Trump creating conditions for US to experience another Lehman Brothers collapse in the US financial sector?

The World financial system must be careful in investing in funds coming out from US - or else get caught in the Lehman Brothers 2 saga.
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Ricky Lim ·
Singapore
Trump drastic cuts in taxes, and boosting rampant spendings - is creating a ballooning fiscal deficit --- and increasing debts for US - and its future generation will have a hard time servicing the debt.

Together with this banking regulation - Trump is creating a condition for financial crisis or meltdown of the past.

Trump don't seems to care about the future - and bend on immeditate gratification.

World Economy and finacial institutions must be careful and watchful of what will come out from Trump financial and fiscal policies --- and not let it drag down in a domino effect of the past.
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Ricky Lim
Ricky Lim ·
Singapore
Trump don't seems to learn from the lesson of the past - or rather he is indifferent - because it will not affect him now.
The problem will surface later - where he may not even be around - and he couldn't care less.
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Ricky Lim ·
Singapore
In the past, financial crisis one after another is trigger by such policies - and has recently been ratified and regulation put in place - to prevent such cyclic eruption of financial crisis - after a few years - when it bust after boom.

Now Trump want ot reintroduce this "boom and bust" policies again - and stir the World financial system.
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ricky l 2 seconds ago
Wonder how can a Country sustain trillion dollars of debt and need to service hundred and billions dollars of debt interest?

Will the Country even able to repay the debt?

Wonder by deregulating the banking sector, will banks and financial institutions again resort to risky investment and put all the investors and depositors money into big risk of default and run-on bank again.
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Ricky Lim ·
Singapore
Trump obviously have forgotten or try to forget the lessons learn from US past finanical crisis :-
(1) US taxpayers money of hundred and hundred billions of dollars are used to prop up US banks and finanical institutions like BOA, JP Morgan, Citibank, AIA, etc - when financial crisis hit from its sub-prime investments in toxic assets. ----- Now Trump want to dismantle the banking regulation - to protect its financial industries.

(2) US Treasury have to borrow trillions of dollars by selling bonds to China, Japan, Saudi - to fund its massive budget deficit. --- Now Trump want to cut its tax in huge percentage, boost its spendings and balloon its debt and widen its budget deficit.

(3) US Treasury have to pump prime its Economy ---- by printing US dollars to repay its debt. ----- Now Trump think that he can do this again if US Economy go into "cyclic boom and bust" cycle --- with Trump risky policies - for immediate gratification but no regards for the future US generations.

--- Can the World not be careful and watchful on what Trump try to do --- and trigger a domino effect on the World financial system in the near future?
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Ricky Lim ·
Singapore
Analyst have computed that if Trump implement all his economic policies including his wall of America - it will add another $5 trillion debt to the $19.845 trillion in Trump short term in office.

And you say that Trump policies is damn good - or damn goon?

Wait till his children, grandchildren and descendants pay the massive debt accumulated by him for US.
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Ricky Lim
As many Countries are also budgeting for deficit to run their Government --- it will pose the following problem :-

(1) Many Countries borrow in US$ as public debt to finance the running of their Government.

Problem :- US$ is currently very strong - vis-a-vis many Currencies. So financing the US$ debt become heavier and heavier - as more local currency is needed to repay the public debt - due to high exchange rate.

Currently, interest rate for US$ is very high - and repayment is a big issue due to higher borrowing cost.

(2) As US$ is used as medium of exchange in World trade --- big burden is imposed on many Countries - causing financial strain to the Global Economy.

(3) Business which have higger liabilities leverage - ie. borrow from bank as loan to finance their business operations --- will also pose a big problem to the profitability of business - due to higher US$ exchange rate (for international trade) and higher interest to service.

(4) Consumers who borrow loans from bank - to finance houses, cars etc - will also be hit by higher interest rate.

All these will pose a big financial risk to the whole Global Economic System.

Who trigger such Global Financial Risk ---- it is Trump "Boom and Bust" fiscal policies that trigger this Global Financial Risk --- when US public debt is mammoth, where the Economy is already booming - but Trump further inflate the balloon by introducing mammoth tax cut - that will cause the balloon to burst, and US public spendings on "fake induced economic confidence" --- lead to steep rise in inflation, buy on credit and inflated debts --- trigger US financial risk and the Global Financial Risk - due to the link of US$ as a medium of exchange for trade.
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Ricky Lim
There is a sesimic financial risk in many of our large trading partners :-
(1) Indonesia's rupiah falls to its weakest level in more than 20 years - The rupiah fell to 14,777 per dollar on Monday, its weakest level since 1998 and a 8.93 percent drop since the start of the year.

(2) Indian rupee is also one of the badly hit, causing fears of emerging markets contagion to spread.

(3) The ringgit has slid 1.44 percent against the dollar, year to date.

(4) The yuan weakened by nearly 1% against the US dollar on Thursday and continued its slide Friday, hitting its lowest level in over a year. It has now fallen by more than 8% over the past three months amid a global trade spat and concerns over an economic slowdown in China.

(They are all running fiscal deficit - that is Government spendings exceed Government revenue - by borrowing and increase their public debt.) - Thus the cost of borrowings increase significantly due to high interest rate and poor currency exchange - that significantly increase their debt burden ---- posing a Big Global Financial Risk.

(Note :- US public debt is the champion - US$22 trillion - and the interest they need to pay keep increasing ---- that contribute to the mammoth Global Financial Risk --- thanks very much to Trump mindless government spendings (such as building its stupid border wall) and mammoth tax cut).

---
Other than China and maybe Malaysia, the financial risk increase as their debt burden become increasingly burdensome - that may cause a big strain on their financial instiutions and banks ---- that may trigger another round of financial crisis --- unless financial safeguards are put in place such as :-
(1) Currency swap arrangement - where trading partners agree to swap currency at a agreed price - without using US$

(2) Financial loans by pre-arranged Monetary Bodies such as IMF etc - to support any currencies that are badly hit - until the financial crisis is over and stabilise.
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Breeke Lo
Uncomfortable? Uncertainty? Cat 1 Lightning (Party) Risk? Copied. Cat 5 on re-elected night. 5 yr countdown reset. Roger that.
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Mikey Mikey
Wise to muster resources to address this area.
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Lance C Alta
PAP must get used to a more uncomfortable SG. I want to point that whenever an Opposition MP comes up with ideas, it gets Fixed by PAP. When someone within the PAP comes out to voice an Opinion/Idea, it gets shouted down by PAP top level. Now with all these puppetting and Fixing, where can any good ideas gets implemented? Dont you get it. Its time to change all these fixing and drowning out of ideas. Dont ask SG audiences to come up with ideas. We are not taking your pay, neither should we come up with ideas. You guys got voted in to come up with ideas but if no ideas, then NEXT please!
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Gerrard Villa
Future PM Heng, can you enlighten us the citizens how much physical cash we have in reserves......Why always threaten us with uncertainty, uncomfortable, unimaginable crisis going to strike us......
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Breeke Lo
The nearer to election, the scarier it is LOL
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Breeke Lo
Mr Heng, is it confirmed you will be next PM? If yes, WHEN? WHAT role will LHL play next? WHO will be sec gen?

If possible, please confirm BEFORE election as it is unwise for us to vote based on speculation.
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