Read more at https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/business/us-china-trade-war-talks-deal-tariffs-11704074
(Updated: )
Danny Lum
(1) The longer the trade deal achieve breakthrough - the more US business, farmers and consumers will be paying the tariff - and the worst off the US business, farmers and consumers will become.
(2) The more the views on the trade deal cannot converge - but is kept apart by hawkish stance - the shorter the runway for Trump - when election is only 1 year away.
(3) The more US business, farmers and consumers got burn by the tariff war - the higher and higher chance Trump will be knock out in the coming election - and that will be great news for the World.
Jm Chow
Yes, in Osaka...Trump managed to get China back to the negotiating table, (by telling Xi that the US will continue to sell 11 billions worth of high tech chips yearly to Huawei)
But US trade officials say "NO" to the sales of chips to Huawei. This flip-flop has been used repeatedly as a tool to deceive China in the year long talks between the US and China. This flip-flop make a deal almost impossible.
A deal is very unlikely even though US say 90% of the US demands have been resolved...not only because of this flip-flop...it is because the US has totally ignored China's demands...ie the removal of the current tariffs must take effect from now (not later)... issues concerning China's sovereignty, safeguards on its core interests and China's business system (eg state owned and sensitive businesses) are non-negotiable.
China will NEVER trade these core issues away... these existential issues are NOT for sale !
From US behaviours at the negotiating table, China become painfully aware that the US is not really serious about making a deal. Trump made the call for the continued talks ... because of the 2020 considerations.
If Trump is serious, he could sign a deal now on the 90% of the issues (already settled.. a great win for him), agree to lift the tariff now.....leaving the 10% to be dealt with later.
For Trump, the trade issues are not as important as the issue of stopping the rise of China.
He believe...the USA cannot be great again... if China become as strong as the USA... in economy... in science and technology.
Xi is aware of this pre-occupation of Trump. He has taken or is taking defensive actions ..for the survival of China.
But US trade officials say "NO" to the sales of chips to Huawei. This flip-flop has been used repeatedly as a tool to deceive China in the year long talks between the US and China. This flip-flop make a deal almost impossible.
A deal is very unlikely even though US say 90% of the US demands have been resolved...not only because of this flip-flop...it is because the US has totally ignored China's demands...ie the removal of the current tariffs must take effect from now (not later)... issues concerning China's sovereignty, safeguards on its core interests and China's business system (eg state owned and sensitive businesses) are non-negotiable.
China will NEVER trade these core issues away... these existential issues are NOT for sale !
From US behaviours at the negotiating table, China become painfully aware that the US is not really serious about making a deal. Trump made the call for the continued talks ... because of the 2020 considerations.
If Trump is serious, he could sign a deal now on the 90% of the issues (already settled.. a great win for him), agree to lift the tariff now.....leaving the 10% to be dealt with later.
For Trump, the trade issues are not as important as the issue of stopping the rise of China.
He believe...the USA cannot be great again... if China become as strong as the USA... in economy... in science and technology.
Xi is aware of this pre-occupation of Trump. He has taken or is taking defensive actions ..for the survival of China.
Like · Reply · 1 · 1h · Edited
Ben Tao
The Great Depression is now at USA doorstep. For China, the trade war happened just at the right time during Xi Jinping rule. This China must face now to deal with USA so that China industry in general is aware of the cunning and dirty USA way of cornering China rise. China must face this trade war as there is no solution to USA cruelty. China must endure and let time sorts out to cause the Great Depression in USA. This way, USA caused itself to be wiped out.
No comments:
Post a Comment