Saturday, April 28, 2018

No formal requests from US, North Korea to host Trump-Kim meeting in Singapore: PM Lee
Read more at https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/singapore/asean-singapore-north-south-korea-host-trump-kim-meeting-10184778

 (Updated: )

Ricky Lim · 

Hosting Trump and Kim on denuclearisation talk - will need highly skilful diplomacy ---- as they involved very complex issue.
(1) Denuclearisation
(2) Korean Peninsula truce to Peace Treaty
(3) Korean, Japan hostage issue
(4) GeoPolitical issues involving China, Russia, US, Japan - not to mention 2 Koreas.
(5) Economic sanctions and how should it be lifted
(6) Safety of Trump and Safety of Kim
(7) Troops in Korea

(8) Missile test

-- any Country who are hosting this Korea denuke talk - need deep understanding of their complex, complicated history ---- as well understanding the underlying "words" of what "denuke means" ----- when it involve more than the peace of 2 Koreas.

It involve "the 2 Big Blocs" and the "nuclear umbrella".

If this talk is to be held in May or early Jun --- it is less than 1 month to prepare --- for such a globalwide interest talk ------ it is not a joke.
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Ricky Lim · 

This talk is like - NATO with US border vs Russia. (The West Wing).

China, Russia, N Korea vs US, S Korea, Japan. (The East Wing).

It is more than Korean Peninsula Peace Talk.
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Ricky Lim · 
The outcome of the talk will also be extremely important - if it turn sour between the 2 parties - how to bring it back and keep it going?

Understanding the intricacies of their surface, under surface meanings and their complex histories --- will make or break the talk.
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Ricky Lim · 

S Korean Leader handle the Korean talks very well - because they understand the N Korean Leader's concern - and everything go according to script.

But now we are talking about the mercurial and unpredictable Trump who may not understand Kim - and how to handle them when things suddenly go out of script?
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Ricky Lim · 

If Singapore is to host this historic (globalwide interest) event - need to convey to both US and N Korea - that they will have to handle this very well.

Singapore cannot be responsible if both go out of script - that led to unfruitful outcome.

1 month is very short - have US and N Korea agreed on all the specific terms beforehand = before the talk is held?

Success or Failure -
The devil is in the detail.
It also depends on the chemistry of the US Leader and the N Korea Leader.
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Lau Lan Chu · 

If Singapore wants to make a mark in the world I will say just do it. There will be gain and risk involved. Having said so much of course we got to be selected first.
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Mark Tan
Lau Lan Chu My thinking is the same with Ricky... If it turn out sour between mad man Donald Trump and North Korea Leader Kim Jong Un, then will be putting Kim at risk and Singapore as well... To help this meeting in Singapore is a danger to North Korea Leader Kim Jong Un... We certainly don't want a missile shoot to Singapore... you try to be an Mr Nice guy and this is what happen...
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Ricky Lim · 

So far, Trump has been a persistent international "deal breaker" in many international deals.

Trump is not known to be an "international deal maker" --- which require "win-win outcome", which require "empahty" - "I am ok, You are ok".

Trump is known to be "I win, you lose" - "I am ok, you are not ok" = "is ok to me and to you".

Under such mindset --- it is difficult to achieve success in such a "high stake deal" - a nuclear deal that has a holocaust implication to the World.

Also, every side need to understand the Korean culture, the mindset, the history, the expectations of all sides ---- in this case "2 political blocs" interest - not just the 2 Korean interest.


By 12 May we will know how "Iran nuclear deal" will end up with - is a good indication how "high stake deal" will be handle carefully or recklessly - and this will determine if Trump is a "deal maker" or "deal breaker".
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Ricky Lim · 

Unless Singapore only provide the site and logistic for negotiation - but we do not take part in chairing, mediating, arbitrating, counselling etc in the whole process.

S Korea Leader that are currently working out the roadmap for Trump and Kim talk - is the best person to chair the talk.

Note :- this will only be Part 1.

Other parties who have interest to the talk - such as China, Japan, Russia are not represented - and a Part 2 will need to be included after Part 1 talk is successfully concluded.

Only when this condition arise, can Singapore host the talk.

Else the stake is too high for Singapore - and the time to prepare is just too short and the issue too complex.
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Ricky Lim · 

The Moon-Kim meeting has raised expectations for Trump's own planned summit with the North Korean leader, the date and location of which have not yet been finalised.
Mongolia and Singapore are the final two sites under consideration for the summit, CBS News reported, though Singapore's Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong said on Saturday that there had been no formal request for Singapore to host the meeting.
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It is confirmed based on news report dated :- 29 Apr 2018 08:40AM
that Singapore and Mongolia are the last 2 sites for consideration of the summit.

(1) Mongolia is chosen - believe is the N Korea choice - as it is between China and Russia - reachable by train or car from N Korea and Mongolia is N Korea friendly Nation and both China and Russia are friendly Countries and past allies to N Korea.

(2) Singapore is chosen - believe is the US choice - because Singapore is well-known to be efficient and effective to host International events - and is a "neutral party" for both "political blocs".


And US, China, S Korea, N Korea, Japan, Russia --- all have embassies in Singapore.
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Suri McGopal · 

Even though Singapore is a well developed country it does not recognise the 'freedom of speech', so the meeting should happen in a well civilized country possibly somewhere in Scandinavia !!!
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Ricky Lim · 

If Singapore does not recognised "freedom of speech" - than what make you think that you can make "untrue statement" in the web and go unchallenged and uncensored?

The same go with many critics.
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