Monday, August 20, 2018

NDR 2018: ‘Ambitious’ housing, healthcare plans are ‘fundamental commitments’ to Singaporeans, says PM Lee

The Prime Minister outlined plans to extend the CHAS scheme to all Singaporeans regardless of income, set up a Merdeka Generation Package and upgrade HDB flats twice in their 99-year lifespan in his National Day Rally speech.
Read more at https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/singapore/ndr-2018-ambitious-housing-healthcare-plans-in-the-works-10631432
 (Updated: )

If we anaylyse people's needs in a Society, it can be generally classified into 3 baskets.
(1) 1st basket - Meeting people physiological needs and security needs. (eg. housing, healthcare, education, etc).
(2) 2nd basket - Meeting people's income and earning needs.(eg. jobs, business, growing passive income)
(3) 3rd basket - Containing cost of livings to ensure people's income can cover cost of livings and there will be savings for retirement, for rainy days as well as monies for investment to grow the income.

Government, People and Business - play a pivotal roles in providing the 3 basket of needs and at the same time benefits from the 3 baskets of needs.
Government role - is to ensure balancing the 3 baskets of needs - whereby people can improve their standard of living - by increasing income of the people, maintaining physiological and ensure security needs at an affordable cost and containing the cost of living in the macro level.
As long as the Government is able to do well in maintaining these 3 Baskets of Needs - and improve the standard of living - then the Government is a good Government and will continue to win the trust of the People.

Similarly, citizens also need to play a part in maintaining these 3 baskets of needs - in a micro level.

Business also need to play a part in maintaining these 3 baskets of needs - while earning profits and create wealth - but also needs to ensure it has a "Heart" when doing so.
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In this era of data science, availability of big data and meta data, AI, machine learning and deep learning --- felt that it may be possible to come out with a generalised model for 3 income groups (low, middle, high income) - taking into account the variables of the 3 baskets to make a benchmark for each income groups.

Adjustment of the variables of the 3 baskets can be make to ensure - an equilibrium can be make.

And then policies can be targeted to improve the variables of each of the 3 baskets -- to ensure the standard of living of people can improve progressively.

Wonder for those experts or specialists in simulation model - can such model be built to become a decision making tool ---- so that this will help to produce more realistic data, more scientific data - that can help the Government in making more precise, more specific policies -- that can target at the various income groups --- and better still more precisely target at individual household to improve each income group and household standard of living.

To be able to achieve this level of precision and sophistication - will be the utopia of governance ---- is this a dream or is this achievable?

Seems like what is virutal can be a reality........
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In this Standard of Living Model - when in equilibrium (means the 3 baskets of needs are in equilibrium) for the various income group or each household - people will be generally happy with their standard of living.

This model can be build --- because all the 3 baskets can be denominated into $ and cents.
Why?
(1) 1st basket - Housing, transport, education, health, electricity bill etc are in $ and cents.
(2) 2nd basket - income are in $ and cents.
(3) 3rd basket - cost of livings are in $ and cents.
Thus building the Standard of Living Model - should not be a "rocket science".
Quite confidence that if Economic Model (that determine a Country's interest rate, currency exchange rate, fiscal policy, monetary policy etc) - are adjusted to ensure Economic growth --- this Standard of Living Model can also be build.

What is needed - is realistic data.

Any policy adjustment - that impact any of the variables of the 3 basket --- will have upset the equilibrium.

The equilibrium can be a National Equilibrium of the respective income group or Household level Equilibrium.
And any adjustment of policy - will definitely impact other baskets or some variables of the basket.

For eg. increase transport cost in 1st basket - will bring about increase in cost of living in the 3rd basket --- and this will impact the Standard of Living Equilibrium.

Thus compensating factor will need to come in - to bring it back to the Equilibrium - for eg. by Government effort or individual effort to boost income or earning in the 2nd Basket.

Individual effort will bring about household equilibrium, while Government effort will bring about national equilibrium.

--- Thinking aloud, wonder if any institution will like to take this suggestion up as a project -- e.g A*Star, NTU, NUS, SMU or other Universities.
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Some people say: This NDR focus too much on $ & cents culture, money is important but it occupies part of our life, wish to hear more ideas of ways to balance our mind, body, and soul, which will lead to true happiness and meaningful life.

Some people say: I felt that this year's NDR did not sufficiently touch on  unemployment and underemployment for Singaporeans. I reckon this topic is very important in our society now.

I say : meditate to gain enlightenment will balance mind, body and soul....

Some people say :- There are free yoga and Zumba class around some of our estate, such topic should bring out in NDR to encourage for healthy living


Jobs in Singaporea - why are there claims of under-employment and unemployment?

Think can classify under the following categories :-
(1) Job available and match = Labour Skillsets, Wage Expectations ---- Satisfied

(2) Job available = Labour skillsets way above Job requirement, Wage fall below Expectation - Employed but below satisfaction (under-employed)

(3) Job available - cannot find labour due to (skillsets cannot match) or Wage (below market rate - cannot attract labour) ---- Job vacancies available - no Labour

(4) No jobs available - there are labour with certain skillsets and certain wage expectation looking for jobs ---- no job vacancies - but there are labour looking for jobs.

In the above scenarios, if the Government is able to do a breakdown of the above - identify and breakdown based on the above - such as how many are unemployed, how many are under-employed (eg. qualification vs job and wages such as graduate but a deliveryman with $1,000 salary or survey feedback by job employee that they want to change job due to underemployment).

Solution :-
(1) Then probably more targeted and proactive matching can be done for Scenario 2 - to match the right job for the right labor to right employment (find a replacement for the vacant job).
(2) For scenario 3, will need to train labour to match jobs and willing to accept the wages.
(3) For scenario 4, will need to attract overseas companies or look for business locally that need the skillsets of the labour.

This can be done by Job Bank Portal, Skillsfuture, Career Coach, Train and Placement, Career Fair etc. Again more precise data to matching via Big Data, Meta Data, AI, Deep Learning, Machine Learning --- can help tremendously to aid in the job matching.

Finally, it is the human chemistry between boss, companies --- versus labour ---- this will be more complex to tackle --- because it is about handling and managing human psychology and human relationship.

Another solution will be become an entrepreneur, be your own boss. Get good business idea, get funding from venture capitalist, crowd-funding etc.
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Ricky Lim
Wonder how does the Job Bank Portal, Skillsfuture, Career Coach, Train and Placement, Career Fair -- perform in matching the above jobs to labour?
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Ricky Lim
Thinking aloud, if we are a Centrally Planned or State-Run economy --- train and job placement to resolve the unemployment and under-employment will be a "sub sub water".

Just :-
(1) look up the database for job vacancies and its job descriptions.
(2) look up the database for labour qualifications and skillsets.
(3) achieve job match - place labour to job ---- Mission complete.
(4) achieve partial job match - train for missing skillsets - upon completion - place labour to job --- this is in effect "train and job placement".

So under such scenarios --- resolving under-employment and unemployment -- will a "chicken feed", "sub sub water".

But now the difficult part is, will business just accept a labour "assigned" by the Government to the "business"?
The obstacles could be :-
(1) wage expectation
(2) human chemistry - between supervisors and staff or bosses and staff.
(3) business is restructuring - and difficult to pin down the type of labour they want.
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Ricky Lim
Some people say :- We are quite centrally planned, there is a quota system for the courses in our schools.

My answer:- Then why still got issues of under-employed and unemployment? Is it the data science of job matching through big data, AI, deep learning - not solid enough?
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Ricky Lim
Some people say :- "We are at best central guided economy. Courses are limited by resources such as teaching staff. Further it will also not beneficial to individuals if there is oversupply of a particular profession.

You are oversimplifying stuff, there are much more difficult part than you have raised

We already have the job bank database.

My answer:- Unless everyone know the root cause. Else how to find the antidote?
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