Monday, August 20, 2018

NDR 2018: Scheme planned to redevelop more old HDB flats before leases end

Residents would need to vote for the Voluntary Early Redevelopment Scheme (VERS), which will take place when their flats reach about 70 years of age.

Read more at https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/singapore/ndr-2018-scheme-planned-to-redevelop-more-old-hdb-flats-before-10631458

Lease Buyback Scheme to be extended to all HDB flats: Lawrence Wong
Read more at https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/singapore/hdb-lease-buyback-scheme-ndr-extended-flats-lawrence-wong-10633492

 (Updated: )

Ricky Lim
Solving the housing problem - when HDB lease of 99 years is up :-

99-year-leasehold HDB flats will become zero value when the 99 year lease is up.
One way to ensure that its value will not turn to zero - is to enbloc them by allowing private developers to bid for it - but cap its price to be around the BTO prices.

In this way, owners of such flat can reap enbloc price per unit and private developers can redevelop the HDB flat that is reaching 99 years and resell it at the prevailing BTO prices.

By doing so, owners can retain HDB as an asset with values without becoming zero, and also the flat can be redeveoped into new flat and sell at a prevailing price with profit to developers --- and Government coffer will not be hurt.

This will also promote growth of the construction sector - with this enbloc scheme - and further contribute to the GDP of Singapore.
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Ricky Lim
Some people may say, if we allow HDB flat to be enbloc, the younger generation will not be able to afford future HDB flats.
Can we solve this problem in this manner :-
(1) Developers who enbloc HDB flat of 13 floor will pay market price to HDB owners when 99 years lease is up.
(2) When the developers build new BTO flat - they must build a 26 floor flat. The first 13 floor can be sold at market price, but another 13 floor to be sold at subsdised HDB price to younger generation.
In this way, government will have sufficient flats for young generation at affordable prices, but at the same time, current HDB owners will not have their HDB value become zero.

(3) the owners benefitted from the market price cannot buy flats at subsidised price but need to buy at resale prices.

(4) In future, when the 99 year lease is up, young owners (at the new 13 floor of flat) who bought at subsidised price can again enbloc at market prices.
Old owners (who occupy the other 13 floor of flat) will no longer be around.

Thus when enbloc again after another 99 year lease is up, the developers again build another 26 floor of flat - with 13 floor reserve for new batch of young owners at subsdised prices and another 13 floors to sell at market price.

In this way, there are 2 benefits :-
(1) Asset Enhancement of the HDB flat can be fulfilled,
(2) at the same time, young owners can afford to buy new HDB flats at a subsidised prices.

This scheme can continue to "recycle perpetually" --- hopefully the Government can considere this scheme for the just announced "VERs" programme by the PM.
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Ricky Lim
Some people say - VERs pay owners market price don't make sense.

To resolve this problem:-
Pay market price make sense - if instead of building 26 floor - build up to 50 floor. 13 floor reserved for young buyers at subsidised prices. The rest of 37 floor sell at market price. Then developers still earn, and land price can return to Government.

1 floor can have at least 10 units - build up to 50 floors will have 500 units versus 13 floor of 10 units = 130 units. Thus VERs pay a market price to existing owners, return land prices to Government and Developer can make profit make sense. Triple Wins.
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Ricky Lim
Some people say, building 26 floors of HDB flat may not be enough because the plot ratio may not be profitable to developers and thus cannot pay market prices to enbloc owners.

Pay market price make sense - if instead of building 26 floor - build up to 50 floor. 13 floor reserved for young buyers at subsidised prices. The rest of 37 floor sell at market price. Then developers still earn, and land price can return to Government.

1 floor can have at least 10 units - build up to 50 floors will have 500 units versus 13 floor of 10 units = 130 units. Thus VERs pay a market price to existing owners, return land prices to Government, Developer can make profit make sense and also young owners can afford to buy flats at subsidised price. 4 Wins.

However some people say :-
"I dont think it's as simple and straight forward as adding more floors. I am not a architect, but I believe a building needs to be twice as strong to support more floors, also issues like needing more lifts to support more occupants. The economy of scale might not be that substantial to give original owners a free unit."

My answer is: Thought some new HDB flats already built very high. Condo also build very high. Thought just need strong foundation. If they can, why old HDB flats cannot?
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LikeReply1m
You provided many interesting ideas however I tend to have a feeling that housing is one fundamental area being used as a political tools.Perhaps, I am wrong but just a hunch. Indeed there are many ways and obviously the public can share some of thier aspiration and needs to contribute to better and more suited current policy for present needs.

Everyone grows old one day and I fully understand why many are beating the drum regardless how some may appear unreasonable.....but truly one have to look deeper why are the public being anxious. We all want a decent retirement and housing and CPF is closes to everyone heart.
Reply1h
Joseph Tan - It is all about solving problems with practical and pragmatic solutions.

I believe anyone with some insights or with some solutions that can solve problems - why not offer?

If the solutions are adopted - it benefits everyone including the Government that uses it.
LikeReply1m
In addition, with more flat to one plot ratio, more lands will be free up and release to the Government into the landbank -- because more people and household can be compacted and stay in the same plot of land.

Government with less HDB flat to build - as it is building higher to accomodate more people - also benefit with more land bank as when more flat is VERs - lesser plot of lands will be needed to build flat as flat go higher to accomodate more people.

The plot of land with higher rise flat - will also bring about higher values - and thus, enbloc can bring higher market price to the owners that enbloc it via VERs --- fufilling the Government commitment of Asset Enhancement or Capital Preservation --- where majority of Singaporeans are asset rich.

Also paya lebar airport has been moved out to Changi and Seletar - and free up airspace - to allow flats to build higher.
LikeReply1mEdited
Some people say :-
- "Cannot understand the logic. Building higher flats will be more expensive as stronger foundation and structure is required and more high speed elevators that are more expensive and also more elaborate fire safety equipment is required."

My answer: how much can be sell per unit? it will definitely cover land cost, construction cost. the more unit in one plot of land, the higher the economies of scale.

Eg. 1 plot of land - build 13 floor flats x 10 units = 130 units.
Need 3.8 plot of land - to build = 500 units.

If 1 plot of land - can build 50 floor x 10 units = 500 units --- the Government save 2.8 plot of lands.
No matter how costly the construction cost of 50 floor ---- it will not beat the saving of 2.8 plot of lands isn't it?

Also assume the Government need to incur higher cost on building foundation, lift --- but it is spread out to 500 units.
How can they be more expensive if --- 130 units are spread across 3.8 plot of land cost.?
It defy mathematics.
LikeReply1mEdited
That is, there is a need to build a lower cost building foundation, lifts, fire safety - 3.8 times vs a higher cost building foundation, lifts, fire safety in 1 plot of land.

No matter what 3.8 times will beat 1 (no matter how expensive).

A side note :- the tallest building in the World in Dubai is about 800 meters to 1 km --- and can go up to 200 floor.
The foundation in the desert, the lift system and the fire safety measures are even more challenging.
But surprisingly the unit cost is quite affordable --- because it is spread out by many housing units.
LikeReply1m
You are right that costs per square feet of construction will be higher beyond a certain height. Even 4 storeys to 12 storeys there is an increase. But that value has to be compared to the cost of land divided by its plot ratio. So economy of scale of the limited resource which in this case is land outweigh the increased cost of construction. Currently I think 50 storeys is the sweet spot based on what I see around the world.
Es Loo
Joseph Tan Not just PAP. Any political animal will use this as political tool
LikeReply2h

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