Saturday, August 24, 2019

Fed's Powell vow to act to sustain US expansion, Trump lashes out
Read more at https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/business/fed-s-powell-vow-to-act-to-sustain-us-expansion-trump-lashes-out-11837786

 (Updated: )

Ricky Lim
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell vowed on Friday (Aug 23) to act to ensure the American economic expansion continues, but warned the central bank has no "rulebook" for dealing with the US-China trade war that deteriorated further almost as he spoke.

"My only question is, who is our bigger enemy, Jay Powel or Chairman Xi?" Trump said, misspelling the Fed chief's name in an unprecedented attack on the independent central bank.
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(1) The whole World know that Trump is the main cause of the problem cause to Global Economy.

(2) But Trump and his trade team - is the only person that blame others - instead of themselves.
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Ricky Lim
Posted on:- 21 Aug 2019 07:35AM (Updated: 21 Aug 2019 10:18AM)

Ricky Lim
The so-called "inverted yield curve" is a statistical phenomenon that has previously been an accurate herald of eventual recession.
Add in growing fears of fallout from the US-China trade war and Germany's own recession warning, plus Britain's Brexit chaos, and suddenly the "R" word has become a regular part of the conversation.

Trump already blaming people for the recession he says won't happen.
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Posted on:- 15 Aug 2019 02:11AM (Updated: 15 Aug 2019 05:34PM)

Ricky Lim
(1) The idiotic moronic Trump got to realise that his tariff trade war - is the main factor that will trigger not only US recession - but also the World recession.

(2) Even if the interest rate is low - business will not borrow to invest - as his tariff trade war will cut consumer demand due to high price.

(3) With low consumer demand, halted trade due to Trump stupid tariff - recession will set in.

(4) In 1930s - US start a tariff trade war and trigger Deep Depression - which subsequently lead to World War 2 - and yet the stupid Trump fail to learn from the historical lesson - despite many warnings.

(5) Come 2020 Presidential Election - it is time for Americans to vote Trump out - to restore sanity to US politics.
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Ricky Lim
(1) Trump single-mindedly blame on FED for not reducing interest rate - is seriously flaw.

(2) Business will not borrow from bank to invest - no matter how low the interest is - if there are no consumer demand - due to high trade tariff impose by Trump.

(3) Trump tariff trade war - is the main cause of world recession ---- and Trump is the main culprit for causing the Global Economic Woe - not FED.
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Ricky Lim
The trade war has so far offset all benefits of fiscal stimulus and could lead to a global recession if it continues. That recession would be called the “Trump recession” because it would have been mainly caused by the trade policies of President Donald Trump’s administration, CNBC noted.
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Ricky Lim
Posted in :-
Reuters – Fri 20 Jan, 2017 3:26 AM IST
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ricky l 0 seconds ago
1930s Deep Depression --- hopefully it will not occur.
It is trigger by US trade war - increase trade tariff against the World - that trigger 1930s Deep Depression.
Hope Donald Trump learned from this - and not repeat the mistake of the 1930s Deep Depression.
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"The decline in the U.S. economy was the factor that pulled down most other countries at first; then, internal weaknesses or strengths in each country made conditions worse or better. Frantic attempts to shore up the economies of individual nations through protectionist policies, such as the 1930 U.S. Smoot–Hawley Tariff Act and retaliatory tariffs in other countries, exacerbated the collapse in global trade.[17] By late 1930, a steady decline in the world economy had set in, which did not reach bottom until 1933."
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Cheo Meng Soon
I’m no economist. As a layman, this is how I see it.

American firms rushed to China in those late years of 1900’s and early years of 2000’s because of cheap labor. Why pay US$10/hr in US when you can have less than US$10/day in China. Everything was (and is still) cheap compare to the US. Even materials for building grand new Asian HQs. Lower cost means higher sales and higher profit. And the goods are for US and the world’s consumption – toys, phones, computers parts, etc. Obviously, bulk of these (assembled and not necessarily manufactured) goods have to be “exported” back to US.

Instead of thanking China for making things affordable for American (and for US companies then to sell to the world for good profit), Trump is saying, “Hey China, you export $300 billion worth of things back to us in 2018, but you buy only $75 billion from us. So, you must buy an additional $225 billion worth of things manufactured in US by American laborers. Or else I’ll raise the tariff on those orders (made by my American importers for goods wanted by my American citizens).” But within those $300 billion dollars are the cost for the valuable time of millions of Chinese laborers who slogged 12-hour a day in condition many Americans would not want to work in.

Trump is forcing the Chinese to buy additional goods the Chinese don’t need. But who is forcing the American to buy those $300 billion worth of goods from China? No one! It is the American themselves who desire and demand for such (cheaper) goods. China cannot export if there is no demand.

Without the Chinese laborers that have made US-made goods more affordable to the world, will many of these US multinationals made their great profits? Would iPhones sell as much if it were made in the US? NO! Apple would probably not be a trillion dollar company today. That position would probably be taken by Samsung (and probably would once the full tariff on iPhones come into effect.)

Trump has accused China of unfair practices and IP thefts. But no one forces those US companies to set up in China. If you set your companies in there, you have to play by its laws. You can keep those IP know-hows by relocating hi-tech employees, paying them expatriate allowances, their housing, etc. Or for the long term, you’ll save much simply cutting those big ticket expenses out by training the local the know-hows to enable them to do their jobs well. The local are your employees too!

Trump had said that his tariff won’t hurt the economy. The Chinese are paying for it, he have said repeatedly. Why then, is he asking FED’s Powell to cut interest rate to boost US economy? He subsides soybean exporters with the tariff he exacted from the American citizens. But when this tariff war is over, those soybean exporters will have lose their market share to other countries. China won’t be buying from them immediately after Trump is gone. Worst, there won’t be any more subsidies. God bless those soybean exporters…

I believe Trump miscalculates, like some of his “bankrupted” big ventures. He thought he could stage a good show taking the Chinese in as Apprentice. (Guess he don’t understand Chinese philosophies and cultures well.) He is a BIG risk taker (as many of his ventures are in Casinos). If his ventures fail (and several had), he is unscathed (being protected by chapter 11), but his investors and all those small stockholders got themselves burnt badly. But this time around, it will be every American. (Bear in mind he is not a Supply-chain-Manufacturing but a Casino-Hotel-Resort businessman.)

Trump has talked too much for too long and went too far with his Tariff Game. Unless he is willing to lose face (which he will if he lost the re-election next year), there is no turning back now. The Chinese will NEVER back down. History has shown us many times how great Empires lost their glory quickly through some misguided acts of its leaders. Many of the goodwill made by preceding US Presidents had gone down the drains.

Let’s watch history unfolds…
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