It is important for All Countries in the World - differentiate themsevles and set themselves apart from Trump-led notion of "global trade war" - that constitute "MAD - Mutually Assured Destruction".
In 1930s, US also trigger similar tariff and start a trade war with the rest of the World. It ended in a Deep Depression that beset the whole World where millions of people worldwide lose their jobs, many businesses fold up and many Countries growth go into double digit negative. As a result, the World started World War 2 - that led to millions and millions of war death - and subsequenty ended the Deep Depression.
Other Countries must wise up - and not follow the footstep of Trump and let Trump destroy the Global Trade and Global Economy.
All Countries in the World should set up a "Trade Firewall" - against Trump led US - to prevent Trump tariff and Trump trade war - from triggering another 1930's Deep Depression or worst start World War 3.
How to mitigate Trump tariff and the effect of global trade war started by Trump? It is called "Trade Firewall" that the rest of the World should actively build and insulate themselves from the effect of global trade war started by Trump :-
- miniimise trade dealing with US - by going for alternative trade market. - look at those goods and services offer by US - that can be offered by other Countries - encourage the establishment and signing of multi-lateral trade deals - in the event Trump start trade war with any other Countries - it can be compensated by this multi-lateral trade deals - and minimised the lost market in Trump-led US. eg. - 11 Countries signing and ratifying the CPTPP. - RCEP multi-lateral trade should be completed and signed As Soon As Possible. - ASEAN-EU trade deal should be baseline and signed quickly. - ASEAN-China trade deal should be baseline and signed quickly.
Ricky Lim · Singapore For a start, US consumers will see a rise in price of cars, smartphones, computers, electrical appliances like fridge, TVs, aircon, furnitures, windows, doors, chairs, tables, cabinets, ships, planes, roads, bridges, houses etc that are using steel or irons.
And US exports of such items will see a fall into overseas market because it will raise prices - and US exports will become less competitive.
This means that US will start losing business and losing jobs --- because domestic demands and export demands will fall. Like · Reply · 1m
Ricky Lim · Singapore And many Countries have already signed many multi-lateral trade deals - excluding US.
Do you know that US will soon get itself isolated and many export markets for US goods and services will no longer be competitive?
This mean more and more US businesses will be lost and this mean US export-led jobs will be lost - due to Trump "America First, World Last" protectionist policies - that have alienated the World market.
Effectively "Trade Firewall" have been build around Trump led US - to cut out any fallout from Trump protectionist policies and economic fallout. Like · Reply · 1m
Ricky Lim · Singapore Trump is leading US into the most "isolated Country" in the World. Like · Reply · 1m
Ricky Lim · Singapore US will be hit with triple whammy:- (1) US business - that need to buy steel and alumininum - will be hit by higher prices and lower domestic demand as well as overseas demand.
When other Countries retaliates against US - other US businesses that are not using steel and aluminium will also be hit with higher prices and lower domestic demand as well as overseas demand.
(2) As the above US businesses make loses - it will cut jobs - and American jobs of all these industries will be cut.
(3) US Economy will plummet - as domestic spendings fall, income fall, overseas export market fall.
It is about International Order. Trump is disrupting the whole International Order - and causing chaos to the Global Trade and Global Economy. The World should ensure that 1930 Deep Depression will not arise as a a result of Trump action - that distort the Global Order by defying Market Principles. The World should take measures to cushion and mitigate any economic fallout arising from Trump's action.
Assume US refuse to trade with the whole World by implementing punitive tariff - the World's trade damage can escape unscathed - if the World collaborate to firm up more multilateral trade deals among themselves minus US.
Eg. (1) CPTPP provide a $12 trillion GDP market for trade. (2) RCEP provide a GDP of $23.8 trillion market for trade. (3) EU provide a $24 trillion GDP market (bigger than US) and ASEAN provide a $3.3 trillion GDP market for trade. EU-ASEAN can provide $27.3 trillion market for trade. (4) China provide a $23 trillion GDP market and ASEAN provide a $3.3 trillion GDP market for trade. China-ASEAN can provide $26.3 trillion market for trade.
So everyone can see that - if Trump try to play hardball and bully the World by levying punitive tariff and trigger a trade war --- the World can mitigate and compensate the damage done by Trump ---- by collaborating and baseline multi-lateral trade deals to prevent a repeat of 1930 Deep Depression that lead to World War 2.
And the World can also at the same time teach Trump a very expensive lession that he will never forget !
ESM Goh Chok Tong speaking at a dialogue session on Saturday (Jan 6).
(Updated: )
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SINGAPORE: New trade tariffs imposed by the US on steel and aluminium imports and the resulting jostling among countries for exemptions from them portend a "major change in the international trade order", Emeritus Senior Minister Goh Chok Tong said on Sunday (Mar 11).
In a Facebook post, Mr Goh said this change is "bad for the world, and especially for countries like Singapore which depend on trade and an open economic environment".
US President Donald Trump announced duties of 25 per cent on imported steel and 10 per cent on aluminium last Thursday, to come into force in 15 days. The move stoked fears of a tit-for-tat trade war that could drive up prices and depress growth around the globe.
While the tariffs are also being imposed on US allies, they can negotiate for exemptions or lower tariffs, Mr Goh pointed out.
"So, as German Chancellor Angela Merkel says, 'It's purely business.'"
The European Union and Japan have urged the United States to grant them exemptions from metal import tariffs, while Canada, Mexico and Australia are likely to be spared.
The jostling among countries reflects US President Donald Trump's bilateral deal-making at work, Mr Goh said, adding: "The US is like a heavyweight sumo wrestler brow-beating wrestlers of lighter weight."
Mr Goh said that if the US succeeds with its "strong-armed bilateral negotiation on tariffs", other big countries may follow suit.
"Beyond trade, the current liberal international system in which countries have thrived, is beginning to disintegrate," he said.
China may step in to fill in the void left by an "America First" policy, but it will carry different values and rules," he added.
"In a world where, as Lee Kuan Yew once said, 'Big fish eats small fish, small fish eats shrimps', these are worrying times for Singapore. That is why Singapore and 10 other countries signed the Comprehensive Trans-Pacific Partnership to keep international trade open and rules-based. Hope the sensible countries win."
China's Commerce Minister Zhong Shan criticised the US tariffs on Sunday saying: "There are no winners in a trade war. It will only bring disaster to China and the United States and the world."
The US is the world's biggest importer of steel, purchasing 35 million tonnes of raw material in 2017. Of those imports, South Korea, Japan, China and India accounted for 6.6 million tonnes.
Source: CNA/mz
Read more at https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/singapore/worrying-times-ahead-for-singapore-with-us-trade-tariffs-esm-goh-10035206
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