Monday, March 26, 2018

China willing to hold talks with US to resolve trade differences
Read more at https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/asiapacific/china-willing-to-hold-talks-with-us-to-resolve-trade-differences-10076974

 (Updated: )
Dave · 

This would appear that China got more to lose in a trade war. If trump reads his cards correct, he should go ahead to make America great again. China may have fear that a military clash would not b too far away in the SC sea.
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Ricky Lim · 

No one win in a trade war.
Most analysts calculated that US will lose alot more than the rest.
The only difference is that Trump don't care - whether it hurts American consumers, business or the US Economy.
China and other Countries care.

Even if US has its way by inducing China or other Countries to comply to Trump's wish - ultimately American consumers and US businesses will lose more in the long run - because American consumers ultimately will have to pay a higher prices - due to higher material cost, higher prices (rather than the most cost effective prices - because Trump induced accepting market inefficiency and price inefficiency).

And Trump high handed and bullying ways to bulldoze tariff against friends and trade partners - has already bring a bad taste to many Countries in the World.

Trade, business and investment is about mutual goodwill, mutual respect and mutual benefits.
But Trump ruining all of these.
Many Countries in the World have gone ahead to forge mutual beneficial mega multi-lateral trade deals - leaving Trump and US out.

In the intermediate and long term, US will stand to lose out --- though in short term, Trump may win some concessions from the Countries it coerce.

Trump is "penny wise but pound foolish".
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Ricky Lim · 

Remember US internal market is not the largest in the World - its prosperity rely on the World market.
US market is about $18 trillion.

(1) EU market is about $20 trillion.
(2) China market is about $18 trillion.
(3) Asia Pacific market is aboout $30 trillion in excess.

If Trump think that it can bully and bulldoze its way - US will in intermediate and long term lose big.
Worldwide, Countries are getting piss off with the way Trump handle international affairs - and this has indirectly negatively impact US business worldwide - if you still have not know.
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Ricky Lim · 

US public debt is $23 trillion - the largest in the World.
Is US so rich and can start bullying others?

Will US declare itself bankrupt one day?

Trump talk big - using borrowed money and are finance by credit.
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Ricky Lim · 

Trump is unaware that by triggering tariff war against so many Countries at once ----- it is triggering a price hike in goods and services across the board, impacting many Economic sectors.

The market inefficiency and price inefficiency across the board in so many sectors --- will bring price hikes in many goods and services - that will boomerang and impact American consumers as they will have to pay a higher prices.
In addition, US businesses across sectors will have to pay higher material prices, higher intermediate goods prices - which will eventually will pass the higher cost to American consumers ---- a double whammy to American consumers.

Overtime, demand for American goods and services will fall due to higher prices.
Domestic demand by US will fall.
Overseas demand for US goods and services will also fall ---- who will want to pay a higher prices for American goods and services?

Other Countries will source for non-American goods and services - who have better price efficiency and market efficieny - help by multi-lateral trade deals sealed by the various Countries (minus US).

Over time, US Economy will falter and will be weaker --- Can still Trump make America great again ? The outcome is the reverse --- and all Trump supporters can start to cry --- while the rest will laugh at Trump and Trump's supporters foolishness.
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Ricky Lim · 

Eg. now the iPhone is sold to US at $1,000 apiece because its source its part from many Countries that offer the best prices with good quality.

Now if Trump insist that all parts must be made in US, iPhone may have to sell to US at $2,000 apiece because all its parts will be too expensive - due to price inefficiency and market inefficiency.

US consumers have no choice but to buy iPhone at $2,000 apiece and cannot buy other brands (because of high tariff levy at other brands).

But worldwide, no one will buy iPhone at $2,000 apiece - but will instead buy Samsung, Xiaomi, Huawei, Sony, HTC etc and other brands that is well below $1,000 as their parts are source from more market efficient and price efficient Countries.

US will no longer be great again - because its Economy will falter and stop growing.
Trump will be the greatest sinner for causing US Economy to falter.
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Dave · 

Ricky Lim, u may b wrong if u r looking from poorer country perspectives. It’s decades old now that USD is still the reserved currency. Until it is not, then the USA debts may affect USA. Now they can just print n print or qualitatively easing its monetary policies even the euro had followed suit when it was precarious. USA is doing selective tariff restrictions which means SG should b a target too for having unprecedented credits while USA continued to have deficits. The 50 billion USA target against China showed USA had the upper hand. Every one knows if USA goes protectionist, pay day is over for non super powers including Japan n china. So this rhetoric about opening up world trade, globalization etc r only good for all countries but not USA. If I m a USA citizen, I would prefer USA not to b a pay master to b the world policeman. Charity starts at home. Trump is right to certain extent. Only those in USA with vested interests cry foul against trump. Sg n the world must remember, free lunch is over coz USA has a businessman president who smelled the rat long ago n he is intent to make USA great again at least in cutting off free loaders in which Sg is one example to jump on the wagon of the TPP of Obama n previous presidents. This free lunch TPP is gone n now replaced by a selective n restrictive program where trade deficit may narrow in favour of USA if trump stayed long enough to find get off Wall Street guys with vested interests
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Ricky Lim · 

Dave - if you strongly believe your view is right and Trump view is right - then we will open our eyes and ears for a decade to discover who is right.

No point to argue now.
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Ricky Lim · 

BTW this is another independent assessment of Trump trade and economic policies - which it deem as "mad".
No economic expert so far has supported Trump economic and trade policies including many US economic and business experts.

----

Donald Trump's 'mad economic policies risk world crisis', says ex-Bank of England adviser

Mark Dorman Yahoo Finance UK26 March 2018
View photos
President Donald Trump is risking recession in the long-term for short-term gains, warns a leading UK economist (REUTERS/Joshua Roberts)
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A former Bank of England economist has warned Donald Trump’s “mad policies” risk sending the US into recession, bringing the global economy down with it.
Paul Fisher said he feared the US president’s low tax-high spending agenda will see the US economy overheat.
“It is economic madness to think that this is the time to do a fiscal expansion in the US,” he said. “The economy [will] be in a complete mess” in around five years’ time, he predicted.
MORE: Is Donald Trump right that trade wars are ‘good’?
Fisher said the president’s $1.5 trillion stimulus package is storing up problems for later.
By the time the next presidential election comes along in a two years, the benefits from that huge investment will be being felt.
However, warned Fisher, the fallout will most surely follow.
View photos
President Donald Trump signs a proclamation to establish tariffs on imports of steel and aluminum (REUTERS/Leah Millis)
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“I can see why Trump might do it – by the time the next US election comes around you will have had the benefits but you won’t have had the costs,” he said.
“It is the old stop-go cycle we had in Western economies for years and years.”
He said Trump’s policies would almost inevitably see inflation rise, hitting the poorest in America the hardest. A recession could soon follow, he added.
MORE: EU ready for a ‘stupid’ trade war if Trump slaps on tariffs
Fisher spent 26 years at the Bank of England, five years of them sitting on the Monetary Policy Committee – the group of economists and advisers that set the UK interest rate.
A central plank of Trump’s presidency is making “America great again” by putting domestic growth at the top of the agenda.

China urges the U.S. not to start a trade war
China is urging the United States to "pull back from the brink" as President Donald Trump's plans for tariffs on up to $60 billion in Chinese goods brings the world's two largest economies closer to a trade war. Sara Hemrajani reports.
His confrontational and protectionist style appeals his core voters as he seeks to deliver on campaign promises of “jobs, jobs, jobs”.
That has seen him impose steel and aluminium tariffs on EU and Chinese producers as he declared that “trade wars are good”.
MORE: Theresa May’s hopes of a post-Brexit trade deal with Trump in doubt as he launches European trade war
Both the European Union and China have threatened to retaliate in kind, raising the spectre of an all-out global trade war.
Fisher added: “One thing we know from thousands of years of history is that trade makes you rich, and anything that damages trade is probably not a good idea.”
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Ricky Lim · 

Anyone with some sound economic knowledge and foundation - knows that Trump economic and trade policies is a "suicidal economic policies" - one that kill himself and kill others.

What you have posted and what Trump say - is not based on economic fundamental - but based on "gungho emotion" devoid of economic fundamentals.
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Ricky Lim · 

Dave - you say that US debt is not a problem?

Hear what US expert say :-

Here’s what a top intel chief says is the biggest internal threat to US national security

Brennan Weiss, Business Insider US February 13, 2018

Director of National Intelligence Dan Coats told lawmakers Tuesday that the growing national debt is the biggest internal threat to US national security.
He urged Congress to take action “before a fiscal crisis occurs that truly undermines our ability to ensure our national security.”
The US national debt is currently more than $20.63 trillion. The recently implemented GOP tax law and last Friday’s budget proposal are projected to add to it.
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Ricky Lim · 

Trump and his most ardent supporters like you and many others ---- are devoid of financial fundamental, economic fundamental --- just emotional gungho --- ride on the current borrowed, inflated immediate gratification ---- but will spell disaster in the intermediate and long run.

It mean "Trump and you are now living on a "delusional bubble" that everything is well --- but will burst in the near future".
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Ricky Lim · 
Another thing Trump and his supporters such as Dave have fail to ask --- if US trade is so unfavourable to US --- then why is US the "Largest Economy in the World"?

Dave - pse answer --- if this trade is working in favour or doing US a disfavor?

Trump and Dave did not give the answer - but harp on the trade deficit.

Trump and Dave fail to know that - the small $600 billion deficit - is fueling US internal Economy of $17 trillion - because of the cheaper material prices, intermediate goods and some finished products.

Trump and Dave fail to understand the priniciple of Economics.

Trump and Dave did not know that by meddling with the trade mechanism ---- Trump and Dave will cause US Economy to falter in the near term - because prices will go up and US demand and oversea demand for US goods and services will fall.

Just remember this -- and keep your eyes and ears open - and wait and see.
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Ricky Lim · 

When US internal demand for US goods and services fall.
When the World stop to buy US goods and services due to the artificially, distorted high prices.

Then I guarantee you and Trump that US will stop to become the largest Economy in the World.

This is "penny wise but pound foolish".

Dave - mark my words and remember this prophecy.
Wait for a decade to find this truth.
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Ricky Lim · 
And did Trump and Dave ask why US import so much cheap material, intermediate goods and finished products?

Because US MNCs are setting up alot of plants, offices, etc worldwide - more than any Countries to take advantage of the low prices worldwide, as well as access to the World's market.

Of course US need to import all its cheap goods and services back --- that is why it account for its large trade deficit.

If Trump insist to distort trade and insist on so call "fair trade" - then Trump is shooting himself on the foot - because he is shooting his own US MNCs.

Trump and Dave - now you get it?

Is Trump foolish?
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