Looking at the concern express worldwide ---- Trump's impact on the World is quite grave.
(1) Economic impact
(2) Security impact
Let see whether the World can last this 4 years without any major catastrophe - economically and security.
ricky l
5 seconds ago
Just hope that one big bang will not come......
ricky l
35 seconds ago
ricky l 0 seconds ago
1930s Deep Depression --- hopefully it will not occur.
It is trigger by US trade war - increase trade tariff against the World - that trigger 1930s Deep Depression.
Hope Donald Trump learned from this - and not repeat the mistake of the 1930s Deep Depression.
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"The decline in the U.S. economy was the factor that pulled down most other countries at first; then, internal weaknesses or strengths in each country made conditions worse or better. Frantic attempts to shore up the economies of individual nations through protectionist policies, such as the 1930 U.S. Smoot–Hawley Tariff Act and retaliatory tariffs in other countries, exacerbated the collapse in global trade.[17] By late 1930, a steady decline in the world economy had set in, which did not reach bottom until 1933."
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ricky l 1 second ago
And Deep Depression 1930s --- trigger the 2nd World War.
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World War II and recovery
The common view among economic historians is that the Great Depression ended with the advent of World War II. Many economists believe that government spending on the war caused or at least accelerated recovery from the Great Depression, though some consider that it did not play a very large role in the recovery. It did help in reducing unemployment.[11][90][91][92] The rearmament policies leading up to World War II helped stimulate the economies of Europe in 1937–39. By 1937, unemployment in Britain had fallen to 1.5 million. The mobilization of manpower following the outbreak of war in 1939 ended unemployment.[93] When the United States entered into the war in 1941, it finally eliminated the last effects from the Great Depression and brought the U.S. unemployment rate down below 10%.[94] In the U.S., massive war spending doubled economic growth rates, either masking the effects of the Depression or essentially ending the Depression. Businessmen ignored the mounting national debt and heavy new taxes, redoubling their efforts for greater output to take advantage of generous government contracts.[cit
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ricky l 0 seconds ago
Hour before the announcement of US Election result :-
One Big Bang comes ------ Lightning strike and Thunder roar - when reading the 1st headline of US Election result .....
And a "Vision appear" --------- there will be One Big Bang.......
Let's hope the vision of 1930s Great Depression (Economic Impact) follow by World War 2 (Security Impact) -------- will not be repeated from 2017 to 2021 .....
Because it will end the Mankind .......... if there is WW3........
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ricky l 0 seconds ago
南无啊弥陀佛 ！！！ 阿弥陀佛 ！！！
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Europe[edit]
Europe as a whole was badly hit, in both rural and industrial areas. Democracy was discredited and the left often tried a coalition arrangement between Communists and Socialists, who previously had been harsh enemies. Right wing movements sprang up, often following Italy's fascist mode.[24]
As the Great Depression worsened, Labour lost power in Britain and a coalition government dominated by conservatives came to power in 1931, and remained in power until 1945. There were no programs in Britain comparable to the New Deal.
In France, the "Popular Front" government of Socialists with some Communist support, was in power 1936–1938. It launched major programs favoring labor and the working class, but engendered stiff opposition.
Germany during the Weimar Republic had fully recovered and was prosperous in the late 1920s. The Great Depression hit in 1929 and was severe. The political system descended into violence and the Nazis under Hitler came to power through elections in early 1933. Economic recovery was pursued through autarky, pressure on economic partners, wage controls, price controls, and spending programs such as public works and, especially, military spending.
Spain saw mounting political crises that led in 1936–39 to civil war.
In Benito Mussolini's Italy, the economic controls of his corporate state were tightened. The economy was never prosperous.
The Soviet Union was mostly isolated from the world trading system during the 1930s. To force peasants into industrial jobs in the cities, food was stripped from rural areas, and millions died of starvation. The dictator Joseph Stalin purged nearly all the old Bolsheviks, and killed or imprisoned hundreds of thousands of presumed enemies.
Canada and the Caribbean[edit]
In Canada, Between 1929 and 1939, the gross national product dropped 40%, compared to 37% in the U.S. Unemployment reached 28% at the depth of the Depression in 1929 and 1930,[25] while wages bottomed out in 1933.[26] Many businesses closed, as corporate profits of C$396 million in 1929 turned into losses of $98 million in 1933. Exports shrank by 50% from 1929 to 1933. Worst hit were areas dependent on primary industries such as farming, mining and logging, as prices fell and there were few alternative jobs. Families saw most or all of their assets disappear and their debts became heavier as prices fell. Local and provincial government set up relief programs but there was no nationwide New-Deal-like program. The Conservative government of Prime Minister R. B. Bennettretaliated against the Smoot–Hawley Tariff Act by raising tariffs against the U.S. but lowered them on British Empire goods. Nevertheless, the economy suffered. In 1935, Bennett proposed a series of programs that resembled the New Deal; but was defeated in the elections of that year and no such programs were passed.[27]
Cuba and the Caribbean saw its greatest unemployment during the 1930s because of a decline in exports to the U.S., and a fall in export prices.
Asia[edit]
China was at war with Japan during most of the 1930s, in addition to internal struggles between Chiang Kai-shek's nationalists andMao Zedong's communists.
Japan's economy expanded at the rate of 5% of GDP per year after the years of modernization. Manufacturing and mining came to account for more than 30% of GDP, more than twice the value for the agricultural sector. Most industrial growth, however, was geared toward expanding the nation's military power. Beginning in 1937 much of Japan's energy was focused on a large-scale war and occupation of China.
Australia and New Zealand[edit]
In Australia, 1930s conservative and Labor-led governments concentrated on cutting spending and reducing the national debt.
In New Zealand, a series of economic and social policies similar to the New Deal were adopted after the election of the first Labour Government in 1935.[28]
Posted by Babe at 8:17 AM No comments:
Great
5 hours ago
With Obama around, US and Russia and US and China and US and North Korea at the edge of WW3. If Killary had won, it will be another war for sure. So, do you think Trump is more worse than Bill Clinton who attacked Yugoslavia, Bush attacked Afghanistan and Iraq, Obama started the Arab Spring in Tunisia which is still a poor country after the revolution attacked Libya, wanted to bomb Syria, toppled government in Egypt, created ISIS, droned Pakistan and many more? The world has been unsafe since Bill Clinton came to power. CIA killed JFK who wanted peace with Soviet Union. US especially CIA do not want the world to be peaceful. If the world is peaceful, they cannot sell their weapons to stable their economy. Like Trump said in the augration, Obama was only good at talking and was never a strong leader who could control his people because they funded him to become a president. He was a lame duck! The world has got luckier Killary was not elected because she had to pay back the favours the bankers and military complex were hoping for. Her Clinton foundation is a very good example where many donors backed off from donating and the organization is due for closure in April 2017.
ricky l
10 seconds ago
@Great - The World is watching how will Trump Administration perform and what path will he be treading on.
No need to second guess what is going to happen.
World affairs are not so simple as it seems.
ricky l
10 seconds ago
@Great --- but all the scenarios that has unfolded now --- mirror the same scenarios as in 1930s that lead to World War 2.
(1) US impose high tariff on all its trade partners - and trade partners retaliate. Trade breakdown in 1930s. This is threatening to unfold now.
(2) US and Europe in 1930s turn protectionist and nationalism is on the rise. This is already happening.
(3) US and Europe elections in 1930s have brought in many nationalist and protectionist politicians. We already see this happening in US, Brexit and the coming EU elections.
(4) Military conflict and confrontations follow the 1930s Deep Depression - to diverge attention from economic woes. Will this happen --- is yet to be seen.
ricky l
now
Economic cooperation, trade, business and investment --- are the insurance and guarantee for peace --- because there are mutual interest and mutual benefits among Nations - whether Trading partners, allies, friends or even adversaries. Thus there is no incentives to endow in conflict and confrontation - as it will hurt mutual benefits.
The moment if politicians turn protectionist, pull back investment, refuse to trade, threaten tariff --- which harm the interests of other Nations --- you will be very certain that retaliation will come - and this will become a spiralling downward that lead to military conflict and confrontation.
ricky l
10 seconds ago
Economic deal, trade deal, investment deals ----- are also - Security Deal.
If Economic deal fall apart - Security Deal will fall apart.
What ensue is Military conflict and Confrontation.
Hence 1930 Economic failure worldwide (where Countries turn inwards and refuse to cooperate for mutual prosperity and wealth) - lead to World War 2.
Hence Economic Deal = Security Deal.
When no Economic Deal = Conflict ensue.
Trump did not recognise this and fail to understand the significance of Economic Deal and Trade Deal.
George Soros says Trump will fail and market's dream will end
Reuters – Fri 20 Jan, 2017 3:26 AM IST
By Jennifer Ablan and Trevor Hunnicutt
(Reuters) - The billionaire investor George Soros said on Thursday that global markets will falter given the uncertainty of incoming U.S. President Donald Trump's policies.
On the eve of Trump's inauguration in Washington, Soros said Trump was "gearing up for a trade war" which would have "a very far reaching effect in Europe and other parts of the world".
The"would-be-dictator... didn't expect to win, he was surprised," the Hungarian-born financier told an audience of business leaders and journalists at a Hotel in Davos where the World Economic Forum is being held.
"I personally have confidence that he's going to fail... because his ideas, that guide him are inherently self-contradictory," said Soros, adding that members of Trump's cabinet are each fighting for different interests.
"Right now uncertainty is at the peak," Soros told Bloomberg News at his annual media dinner held at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland. "I don't think the markets are going to do very well."
Stocks in the United States surged after Trump's Nov. 8 election victory. Trump takes office on Friday.
"Markets see Trump dismantling regulations and reducing taxes, and that has been the dream," said Soros. "The dream has come true."
But Trump has called for border taxes and withdrawing from his predecessor's Trans-Pacific Partnership trade deal, among other policies that have unclear ramifications for U.S. growth, Soros said.
"It's impossible to predict exactly how Trump is going to act," he said.
Soros, who founded Soros Fund Management LLC and now is chairman of the New York-based firm, was a large contributor to the Super PAC fund-raising group backing Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton and had donated to other groups supporting Democrats.
Overall, Soros said about the president-elect: "I personally am convinced that he is going to fail. Not because of people like me who would like him to fail. But because his ideas that guide him are inherently self-contradictory and the contradictions are actually already embodied by his advisers ... and his cabinet."
Turning to the United Kingdom, Soros said it is unlikely that Prime Minister Theresa May will "remain in power" given divisions within her government.
May on Tuesday laid out plans for Britain to negotiate its exit from the European Union. Soros said that process will be long and that "a bitter divorce" will hurt both sides.
Soros famously made huge profits in 1992 betting against the British pound as it crashed below the preset level and had to be withdrawn from the European Exchange Rate Mechanism.
China has an interest in European unity because of the bloc's importance as an export market, Soros said.
He said President Xi Jinping, who on Tuesday made a case for China's leadership in Davos, can steer his country to either a more open society or a more closed society, while nudging it to a more sustainable economic growth model.
"Trump will do more to make China acceptable as a leading member of the international community than the Chinese could do by themselves," Soros said.
(Reporting by Jennifer Ablan and Trevor Hunnicutt; Editing by Chizu Nomiyama and Alan Crosby)
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