Thursday, January 26, 2017

What Trump's trade and geopolitical moves mean for China

With his rejection of an Asian trade pact, U.S. President Donald Trump has started tackling policy changes that could inadvertently give China room to assert itself as a regional leader and worsen strains over the South China Sea and Taiwan


    • Any mis-steps in dealing with China by US - will have a mega-impact - whether in Economics or Military. 
    • It will harm the interests for both US and China --- just when US and China want to improve the lives of their people. 
    • It will also have collateral damages to others in the World. US must engage China in dialogues and communications - and must not unilaterally issue Executive Order - that will result in a titanic clashes that can be avoided.
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      • No harm will be more damaging - than the clash between US and China --- whether in Economics or Military clash.
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        • Because China can response a tic for a tac - whether in Business or in Military.
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          • As to gain more geopolitical influence in Asia Pacific, military might alone will not help US to gain any leverage without Economic deal. China is pushing for a mega-multilateral deal in which US has given up. 
          • For sure, China will gain much more influence over Asia Pacific than US hope to gain.
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            • Eg. in dollars term. China-led RCEP, FTAAP and One Belt One Road offer US$100 trillion by 2050 to Asia Pacific region - and US offer none or dwarf in comparison ---- do you think the Asia Pacific Countries will side US more than China or vice versa?
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              • In fact US military maneouvre in Asia Pacific will be watch with suspicion by the Asia Pacific - as a mean to disrupt trade and business - rather than a hero in upholding international law.
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                • And US Geopolitical influence will have been defeated in the onset.
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                  • And US 40 million workers jobs who is highly dependent on trade worldwide - will be impacted.
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                    • Trade and business - is contingent on the goodwill of Countries - who are willing to share mutual benefits. 
                    • Geopolitical influences can only grow if there are trade, business, investment, people-to-people relationship and friendly foreign policies. 
                    • Else Geopolitical influences will not materialise.
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                      • And which region in the World is the fastest growing? 
                      • It is in Asia Pacific. 

                      • Where is the largest multi-lateral trade deal in the World?
                      •  It is in Asia Pacific - RCEP, FTAAP and One Belt One Road. US is not in - either of them. 

                      • And US has given up its largest multi-lateral trade deal in the World with Asia Pacific and Latin America - the TPP !
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                        • China promise to bring $$$$$$$ - 财神爷。 
                        • US want to bring gun and bullets instead of $$$$$$. 
                        • Who will follow US? 
                        • People prefer $$$$$$$ - of course go with China lah.
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                          • No one want to catch missiles and dodge bullets. 
                          • People only want $$$$$$$$.......
                          • US Defense Secretary James Mattis says no need for dramatic US military moves in South China Sea

                            Reuters | Updated: Feb 4, 2017, 12.30 PM IST

                            HIGHLIGHTS

                            ·                        Mattis played down any need for major US military moves in the South China Sea.
                            ·                        Secretary of State Rex Tillerson said China should not be allowed access to islands it has built in S China Sea.
                            ·                        The White House also vowed to defend "international territories" in the strategic waterway.
                            US Defense Secretary James Mattis at the defense ministry in Tokyo on February 4, 2017. (AFP Photo)US Defense Secretary James Mattis at the defense ministry in Tokyo on February 4, 2017. (AFP Photo)
                            TOKYO: US Defense Secretary James Mattis on Saturday played down any need for major US military moves in the South China Sea to contend with China's assertive behavior, even as he sharply criticized Beijing for "shredding the trust of nations in the region."

                            "At this time, we do not see any need for dramatic military moves at all," Mattis told a news conference in Tokyo, stressing that the focus should be on diplomacy.

                            In his Senate confirmation hearing, Secretary of State Rex Tillerson said China should not be allowed access to islands it has built in the contested South China Sea. The White House also vowed to defend "international territories" in the strategic waterway.

                            But how the United States would achieve that has been unclear, including whether it would have a military dimension.

                            Analysts have said Tillerson's remarks, like those from the White House, suggested the possibility of US military action, or even a naval blockade.

                            Such action would risk an armed confrontation with China, an increasingly formidable nuclear-armed military power. It is also the world's second-largest economy and the prime target of Trump accusations of stealing American jobs.

                            Mattis suggested that major military action was not being currently considered.

                            "What we have to do is exhaust all efforts, diplomatic efforts, to try to resolve this properly, maintaining open lines of communication," Mattis said, in his most complete remarks on the issue to date.

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