This is What Singapore Can Expect Now That Trump is President
By Kim Iskyan | Truewealth Publishing – 6 hours ago
- ricky l 0 seconds agoUS trade that make up 28% of its GDP will be about US$5 to 6 trillion.
- US by adopting inflationary fiscal policies - of more Government expenditure and cut taxes --- will cause its public debt to blow up.
- If US restrict its trade, US fiscal deficit will further balloon. The only way for US to boost its budget to reduce its fiscal deficit and to reduce its public debt --- is to further boost its trade to form a more significant portion of its GDP.
- Thus Trump must be very mindful to boost trade --- not engage in trade war or restrict trade.
- On the hindsight, dropping TPP and TTIP is very short-sighted as these are multilateral trade deals that will bring in tremendous trade revenue back to US.
- ricky l 0 seconds agoUS current public debt is $23.245 trillion. Wonder how will US finance this debt when Trump decide to cut tax further while committing higher government spendings without boosting US trade?
- A multilateral trade deals such as TPP will bring a mammoth trade revenue due to its Economies of Scale - as oppose to bi-lateral deal - that is negotiate one by one.
TGH 1 hour ago
Singapore already has an FTA with US. In fact Singapore already has some sort of FTA with all TPP participating countries except Canada and Mexico.
What would be the difference made with these 2 additional countries?
it may make a difference but i personally don't think the difference is big enough to create a big dent or cripple our economy.
The whole world knows the purpose of TPP is to contain China economically.
- ricky l 0 seconds agoI think a bilateral trade deal (FTA) as compared to a multilateral trade deal (such as the TPP or RCEP) - will not be as big and as beneficial.
- A bilateral trade deal - say between US and Singapore --- may require both Countries to have say a local content of 50% before it qualify for cut in trade tariff. Then quite a number of goods and services may not qualify for the trade tariff.
- For a multi-lateral trade deal say RCEP or TPP, as long as 50% of the content is make within TPP or RCEP members, then the goods and services will be qualify for trade tariff. When this happen more goods and services will qualify for cut in trade tariff - and export and import will grow exponentially compare to bilateral FTA.
- Thus Trump fail to recognise this fact - and miss a whole huge opportunity in big jump in trade.
- ricky l 0 seconds agoTrump say he prefer bilateral trade deal as compare to multilateral trade deal - will miss the Economies of Scale in trade - as many goods and services may not meet the local content criteria - and fall out of the trade deal.
- For eg. a company may buy raw material from Country A, semi-make product in Country B and assemble in Singapore.
- As the local content is only 20%, it will not qualify for the cut in trade tariff under the FTA.
- In a multilateral trade deal, Country A and/or Country B maybe a TPP members.
- Thus the local content (including TPP member Country) - will make up at least 50% - and thus qualify for the cut in trade tariff - and this will boost more trade.
- Thus Trump fail to see this benefit.
- ricky l 0 seconds agoTrump without understanding the detail and benefits --- often resort to tweets to dismiss it - and miss the big picture and big benefits.
- And later realise China led RCEP and FTAPP will blaze ahead with all of US trading partners --- leaving US to catch its tail.
- Raymond 57 minutes agoWhether be it RCEP or FTAs, first and foremost, in order to survive, we must maintain good relationship with our very important trade partners. From the chart above, China ranked top, I think we better learn to be smart and not to provoke China to anger in any unnecessary aspect.
