George Soros says Trump will fail and market's dream will end
Reuters – Fri 20 Jan, 2017 3:26 AM IST
- ricky l 0 seconds ago
- It is trigger by US trade war - increase trade tariff against the World - that trigger 1930s Deep Depression.
Europe[edit]
- Europe as a whole was badly hit, in both rural and industrial areas. Democracy was discredited and the left often tried a coalition arrangement between Communists and Socialists, who previously had been harsh enemies. Right wing movements sprang up, often following Italy's fascist mode.[24]
- As the Great Depression worsened, Labour lost power in Britain and a coalition government dominated by conservatives came to power in 1931, and remained in power until 1945. There were no programs in Britain comparable to the New Deal.
- In France, the "Popular Front" government of Socialists with some Communist support, was in power 1936–1938. It launched major programs favoring labor and the working class, but engendered stiff opposition.
- Germany during the Weimar Republic had fully recovered and was prosperous in the late 1920s. The Great Depression hit in 1929 and was severe. The political system descended into violence and the Nazis under Hitler came to power through elections in early 1933. Economic recovery was pursued through autarky, pressure on economic partners, wage controls, price controls, and spending programs such as public works and, especially, military spending.
- Spain saw mounting political crises that led in 1936–39 to civil war.
- In Benito Mussolini's Italy, the economic controls of his corporate state were tightened. The economy was never prosperous.
- The Soviet Union was mostly isolated from the world trading system during the 1930s. To force peasants into industrial jobs in the cities, food was stripped from rural areas, and millions died of starvation. The dictator Joseph Stalin purged nearly all the old Bolsheviks, and killed or imprisoned hundreds of thousands of presumed enemies.
Canada and the Caribbean[edit]
- In Canada, Between 1929 and 1939, the gross national product dropped 40%, compared to 37% in the U.S. Unemployment reached 28% at the depth of the Depression in 1929 and 1930,[25] while wages bottomed out in 1933.[26] Many businesses closed, as corporate profits of C$396 million in 1929 turned into losses of $98 million in 1933. Exports shrank by 50% from 1929 to 1933. Worst hit were areas dependent on primary industries such as farming, mining and logging, as prices fell and there were few alternative jobs. Families saw most or all of their assets disappear and their debts became heavier as prices fell. Local and provincial government set up relief programs but there was no nationwide New-Deal-like program. The Conservative government of Prime Minister R. B. Bennettretaliated against the Smoot–Hawley Tariff Act by raising tariffs against the U.S. but lowered them on British Empire goods. Nevertheless, the economy suffered. In 1935, Bennett proposed a series of programs that resembled the New Deal; but was defeated in the elections of that year and no such programs were passed.[27]
- Cuba and the Caribbean saw its greatest unemployment during the 1930s because of a decline in exports to the U.S., and a fall in export prices.
Asia[edit]
- China was at war with Japan during most of the 1930s, in addition to internal struggles between Chiang Kai-shek's nationalists andMao Zedong's communists.
- Japan's economy expanded at the rate of 5% of GDP per year after the years of modernization. Manufacturing and mining came to account for more than 30% of GDP, more than twice the value for the agricultural sector. Most industrial growth, however, was geared toward expanding the nation's military power. Beginning in 1937 much of Japan's energy was focused on a large-scale war and occupation of China.
Australia and New Zealand[edit]
- In Australia, 1930s conservative and Labor-led governments concentrated on cutting spending and reducing the national debt.
- In New Zealand, a series of economic and social policies similar to the New Deal were adopted after the election of the first Labour Government in 1935.[28]
French far-right leader Le Pen calls on Europeans to "wake up"
By Paul CarrelReutersJanuary 21, 2017France's National Front leader Marine Le Pen gestures after her speech during a European far-right leaders meeting to discuss about the European Union, in Koblenz, Germany, January 21, 2017. REUTERS/Wolfgang RattayMoreBy Paul CarrelKOBLENZ, Germany (Reuters) - French far-right leader Marine Le Pen urged European voters to follow the example of Americans and the British and "wake up" in 2017 at a meeting of far-right leaders.Le Pen told several hundred supporters in the German city of Koblenz that Britons' vote last year to leave the European Union would set in train a "domino effect"."2016 was the year the Anglo-Saxon world woke up. I am sure 2017 will be the year the people of continental Europe wake up," she said to loud applause on Saturday.Le Pen, head of the anti-EU, anti-immigrant National Front (FN) and seen by pollsters as highly likely to make a two-person runoff vote for the French presidency in May, has marked out Europe as a major plank in her programme.The far-right leaders met under the slogan "Freedom for Europe" with the aim of strengthening ties between their parties, whose nationalist tendencies have hampered close collaboration in the past."The key factor that is going to set in course all the dominos of Europe is Brexit. A sovereign people chose ... to decide its destiny itself," Le Pen said."The second coup did not come long after: the election of Mr Trump to the presidency of the United States ... his position on Europe is clear: he does not support a system of oppression of peoples," she added.In a joint interview with the Times of London and the German newspaper Bild published on Monday, Trump said the EU had become "a vehicle for Germany" and predicted that more EU member states would vote to leave the bloc as Britain did last June.Populist anti-immigration parties are on the rise across Europe as high unemployment and austerity, the arrival of record numbers of refugees and militant attacks in France, Belgium and Germany feed voter disillusionment with traditional parties.The mood is mirrored in the United States, where Trump was inaugurated as U.S. president on Friday.Several leading German media have been barred from the Koblenz meeting, which is being organised by the Europe of Nations and Freedom (ENF), the smallest group in the European Parliament, in a year when the parties are hoping for electoral breakthroughs.Also at the meeting were Geert Wilders, leader of the Dutch far-right Freedom Party (PVV) who was last month convicted of discrimination against Moroccans, and Matteo Salvini of the Northern League who wants to take Italy out of the euro.In the Netherlands, Wilders is leading in all major polls before national parliamentary elections on March 15. Again hailing Trump's election, Wilders told the meeting: "Yesterday a free America, today Koblenz, and tomorrow a new Europe."Protesters demonstrated outside the venue, with Sigmar Gabriel, the leader of Germany's Social Democrats, junior partner in Chancellor Angela Merkel's ruling coalition, due to join the protest.(Additional reporting by Simon Carraud in Paris and Crispian Balmer in Rome; Editing by Tom Heneghan and Alexander Smith)
VATICAN CITY (AP) — Pope Francis says he'll wait to see what U.S. President Donald Trump does before forming an opinion about him.In an interview published Saturday evening by Spanish newspaper El Pais, Francis says he doesn't like "judging people early. We'll see what Trump does."Asked about populist-style political leaders emerging in the United States and Europe, Francis warned against seeking a savior in times of crisis.He said Adolf Hitler in the 1930s' Germany "was voted for by the people and then he destroyed the people."Francis laments that in crises "we look for a savior to give us back identity, and we defend ourselves with walls, barbed-wire fences, from other peoples."He was interviewed Friday at the Vatican at the same time as Trump's inauguration ceremony.
By David Brunnstrom and Matt SpetalnickWASHINGTON (Reuters) - The new U.S. administration of President Donald Trump vowed on Monday that the United States would prevent China from taking over territory in international waters in the South China Sea, something Chinese state media has warned would require Washington to "wage war."The comments at a briefing from White House spokesman Sean Spicer signalled a sharp departure from years of cautious U.S. handling of China's assertive pursuit of territory claims in Asia, just days after Trump took office on Friday."The U.S. is going to make sure that we protect our interests there," Spicer said when asked if Trump agreed with comments by his Secretary of State nominee, Rex Tillerson, on Jan. 11 that China should not be allowed access to islands it has built in the contested South China Sea."It’s a question of if those islands are in fact in international waters and not part of China proper, then yeah, we’re going to make sure that we defend international territories from being taken over by one country," he said.Tillerson's remarks at his Senate confirmation hearing prompted Chinese state media to say the United States would need to "wage war" to bar China's access to the islands where it has built military-length air strips and installed weapons systems.Tillerson, who was expected to be confirmed as secretary of State on Monday, was asked at the hearing whether he supported a more aggressive posture toward China and said: "We’re going to have to send China a clear signal that, first, the island-building stops and, second, your access to those islands also is not going to be allowed.”The former Exxon Mobil Corp chairman and chief executive did not elaborate on what might be done to deny China access to the islands.But analysts said his comments, like those of Spicer, suggested the possibility of U.S. military action, or even a naval blockade, that would risk armed confrontation with China, an increasingly formidable nuclear-armed military power. It is also the world's second-largest economy and the target of accusations by Trump that it is stealing American jobs.Spicer declined to elaborate when asked how the United States could enforce such a move against China, except to say: “I think, as we develop further, we’ll have more information on it.”RISK OF DANGEROUS ESCALATIONMilitary experts said that while the U.S. Navy has extensive capabilities in Asia to stage blockading operations with ships, submarines and planes, any such move against China's growing naval fleets would risk dangerous escalation.Aides have said that Trump plans a major naval build-up in East Asia to counter China's rise.China's embassy in Washington did not immediately respond to a request for comment on the White House remarks.China's Foreign Ministry said earlier this month it could not guess what Tillerson meant by his remarks, which came after Trump questioned Washington's longstanding and highly sensitive "one-China" policy over Taiwan.Washington-based South China Sea expert Mira Rapp-Hooper at the Center for a New American Security called the threats to bar China's access in the South China Sea "incredible" and said it had no basis in international law."A blockade - which is what would be required to actually bar access - is an act of war," she added."The Trump administration has begun to draw red lines in Asia that they will almost certainly not be able to uphold, but they may nonetheless be very destabilising to the relationship with China, invite crises, and convince the rest of the world that the United States is an unreliable partner."Bonnie Glaser at the Center for Strategic and International Studies think tank called Spicer's remarks "worrisome" and said the new administration was "sending confusing and conflicting messages."Dean Cheng, a China expert at the conservative Heritage Foundation, said Spicer's remarks showed the South China Sea was an important issue for the Trump administration.He said it was significant that neither Spicer nor Tillerson had been specific as to what actions would be taken and this left open the possibility that economic measures - instead of military steps - could be used against China and firms that carry out island building.(Reporting by David Brunnstrom and Matt Spetalnick; Editing by Andrew Hay)Troubling parallels between pre-WWII and today's world: Analysts
The rise of nationalistic sentiments and tensions over refugees point to disturbing similarities with the 1930s. Insight asks, are we headed for another global conflict?
- Posted 18 Feb 2017 11:10
- Updated 18 Feb 2017 11:20
SINGAPORE: With the refugee crises in Europe and Southeast Asia, and middle-class wages stagnating in the West, observers are warning of parallels between the global political and socioeconomic climate of the present, and that of the 1930s – just before the onset of World War II.A significant driving factor that led to World War II was the impact of the Great Depression on the middle class communities in the West, said Dr Benjamin Schupmann, a postdoctoral fellow at Yale-NUS College.Coupled with the influx of migrant Jews from Eastern Europe and Russia, this created the basis for the instability, fear and exclusion in Western countries that contributed to the outbreak of the world war.“With these displaced populations, you have the inhabitants seeing them as different, worrying at the same time about their socioeconomic status as their wages are dropping, and immigrants seem to be rising within the ranks of society,” said Dr Schupmann.“So, if you need someone to blame, why not blame the new guy?”WATCH: Is another global war looming? (3:38)Today, similar trends are leading to similar fears – and the similarly troubling rise of political figures championing nationalist and isolationist sentiments, analysts note on this week’s episode of Insight, ‘Lessons of War’.“The way Hitler rose to power, he appealed to the lower middle classes. They felt that because they had seen a lot of their savings evaporate through hyperinflation, the system wasn’t looking out for them,” said Richard Bitzinger, coordinator of the Military Transformations Programme at the S Rajaratnam School of International Studies.“I think this is the same thing Trump has done.”United States President Donald Trump has made several controversial moves since taking office in January, including pulling America out of the Trans Pacific Partnership and carrying out extreme vetting of immigrants – all under a broad nationalistic agenda to put “America First”.Nationalistic sentiments are resurgent elsewhere as well. Russian President Vladimir Putin’s push to make Russia “great again” has led to military adventurism, such as through Russia’s annexation of Crimea in 2014, noted Mr Bitzinger.Meanwhile, China’s increasingly aggressive attempts to assert sovereignty over the South China Sea has led to tensions with its neighbours – and could be a potential flashpoint for a major conflict, Mr Bitzinger warned.“Increasingly, you have countries that are governing from a sense of fear and from the perspective of being the loser,” he said. “If everybody feels they are the victim, nobody wants to make concessions.”Members of China's South Sea Fleet (Photo: AFP)
But Dr Schupmann noted that while parallels between the present and the pre-war era exist, international institutions like the European Union are now in place and still considered legitimate by citizens around the world – in contrast to the situation pre-1940s.These institutions are important for moderating different nations in dialogue and offering alternate paths for conflict resolution, he added.Said Mr Bitzinger: “We are still dealing today with the same issues we dealt with 20, 30, 50 years ago.“It’s how we deal with them, and the kind of people we have in charge of dealing with them, that will determine war or peace.”Watch the Insight episode on the lessons of World War II here.- CNA/yv
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