Saturday, November 19, 2016


ricky l








World leaders at APEC summit take aim at Trump over trade

JOSHUA GOODMAN and BEN FOX
If US withdraw from the TPP, the rest of the World will go with China for multi-lateral trade deals. Among those are RCEP.

US businesses will fall out of Asia Pacific market and its stake in Asia Pacific will fall drastically.

US trade representative already mention that US will lose US$94 billion in the first year alone when it pull out of TPP.

China influence in Asia Pacific region will grow considerably, crowding out US businesses delivering big business losses to US economy where US trade contribute US$2 to 3 trillion to its GDP.

Northern America - Mexico, Canada will join China driven trade pacts.
Latin America - Chile, Peru will also join China trade pacts.

US influence in Asia Pacific region, Northern America and Latin America will diminished considerably.

And if US withdraw trade pact with EU, the TTIP, US influence in EU will also diminished.

US will increasingly become an isolated state like the N Korea - while China will take over US to be the Number 1 SuperPower overtaking USA.

  • While China's clout in World Trade grow considerably, US trade in the World will fall considerably.

    US at the same time want to expand its military considerably.

    With trade influence over the World diminished but expanding its military ---- there will be only 1 outcome ---- it will want to exert its political and military clout without the corresponding business, trade and investment clout.

    What it means is that --- US will increasingly locked horn with China - when their interests are compromised.

    Without the lubricants of trade, business and investment with the World and with China - that will require collaboration - political confrontation and military confrontation between US and China will increasingly be the outcome.

    This will make the World more dangerous - not less dangerous ---- as US is the Number 1 military SuperPower.

    China is increasingly beefing up their military to protect its business, trade and investment stake throughout the World.

    So US and China locking horn for Supremacy will increasingly become the outcome - where regional war and even WW3 will become more and more possible.

    And US will have less friends, allies and partners on its side.

    Conversely, China will win more friends, allies and partners on its side - because many Countries are increasingly integrated with China in trade, business and investment ----- whereas US is increasingly pulling out its economic integration, trade and business with the rest of the World.

    Thus US influence worldwide will be diminished and become less important to the rest of the World.

    China will replace US to become an increasingly important trade, business and investment SuperPower.
    • Will US be "great" again?
      • America business and corporate will no longer be label as MNCs (Multi-National Corporations) - it will be labelled as AoNCs (America-only National Corporations).

        AoNCs will no longer have privileged access to the Asia Pacific Market, the Northern America market, the EU market, the Latin America market.

        All AoNCs will have to shrink in size their businesses by 12 times - as the US domestic market is 500 million versus the 6 billion people market the US is accessing now.

        This will means AoNCs will have to retrenched many American workers as the AoNCs business are initially designed to access the World market and now force to sell only to the US market.

        It means Pepsi, Coca-cola, MacDonald, Kentucky, Microsoft, Apple, JP Morgan, Citibank etc will have to shrink their worldwide operation - and it means US worldwide will have to retrenched alot of American workers.

        The rest of the World with trade and globalisation outlook will have business filling the void left behind by US businesess.

        US suddenly will enter into a deep recession - because it cancel TPP, TTIP and other trade deals.

        US will lose its global influence, global standings, SuperPower status overnight.

        And overnight US will no longer be a trustworthy partners or allies with the rest of the World - because it has lose its significance, influence.

        And overnight China will fill the void of US to be the Superpower where the rest of the World will look up to.
      • For those 4,000 over negative postings against TPP trade deal, there is a happy announcement for you all.

        All the rest of the 11 TPP members will go ahead to ratify the TPP trade deal (with or without US).
        It does not matter whether US join or not.

        The rest of the TPP members will put into effect the trade deal without US.

        The entire trade deal will give the 11 TPP members privileged, unrestricted, no tariff access to everyone market worth multi-trillion dollars in trade ---- and it will bring tremendous wealth to the TPP members minus US.

        So for the 4,000 negative comments on TPP, presumably mainly Americans, you need not despair as the rest of the World who still believe in trade will not force you to include you.

        We will work closely with China and other trade bloc like EU to uphold free trade.

        US can be alone. We will not bother you if you don't want to.


      • Another happy announcement, we will also be ratifying another mega trade deal with China, the RCEP trade deal that will worth another multi-trillion dollars.

        Don't panic, Americans will not be in this RCEP trade deal.
        It comprise only all the Asia Pacific Countries.

        Ah, just to announce that some Northern America (Mexico etc), Latin America Countries will like to join RCEP.

        So for US citizens, don't panic --- you will be free from TPP and RCEP trade deal --- while we will enjoy the dual multi-trillion trade deals.

        It will definitely boost our GDP and our growth and our business and our jobs.

        It will provide us with wealth and prosperity.

        US will not need to be a part of this - because you all don't want it. We won't force you - you can sleep in peace.
        • And you don't think that the number one consumer with the largest number of purchasers who have the most available income to spare? It won't be long and they will be kissing our ring.
          All we ask for is TRUE FREE TRADE. Not the sweet heart deal other countries have been getting.
          And by the way, maybe the 11 members can start reimbursing us for what they owe us regarding the UN.
        • @T just do your homework.

          EU GDP - 20 trillion
          China GDP - 20 trillion
          US GDP - 18 trillion

          Either China or EU can replace US easily.
        • Some important information.

          (1) 11 TPP members without US - we can achieve $10 trillion in trade to GDP

          (2) 12 TPP members with US - we can achieve $27.64 trillion in trade to GDP

          So even though we cannot achieve more, $10 trillion in trade to GDP without US ---- is also a great incentive for the 11 TPP members without US to ratify the TPP.

          US is very rich --- they can forgo $27.64 trillion in trade to GDP.
  • US can use $27.64 trillion from TPP to repay their public debt - close to $20 trillion.

    But Americans don't want and they are not supporting the TPP ---- so never mind, let US continue to accumulate their public debts - when they further cut tax and further spend more on infrastructure.

    Without trade, with tax cut, with more spending, their public debt will continue to balloon above $20 trillion.

    And if US don't trade, the World will not want to hold US dollars anymore - and even if US print more US dollars to finance spendings, the US dollars will soon become banana money as the World no longer hold US dollar anymore to trade.

    US will go into a deep depression.
    See less
  • In other words, if US don't trade, the World will not hold US dollars anymore.

    And US dollar value will plummet dramatically --- and become worthless because US dollars will only be used within US and not with the rest of the World.
  • Trump wont do anything. We all know he wont. He just wanted the prestige of being POTUS. He isn't gonna do one thing he said he would do. If he tried to derail all these trade deals our country would see double digit unemployment again and he knows it. Hate and anger fueled his rise. Racism fueled his rise. He didn't even get a majority. He has no mandate.
  • World leaders at APEC summit take aim at Trump over trade
  • JOSHUA GOODMAN and BEN FOX














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    China's President Xi Jinping waves after speaking at the CEO summit during the annual Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) forum in Lima, Peru, Saturday, Nov. 19, 2016. (AP Photo/Esteban Felix)
    LIMA, Peru (AP) — Several U.S. allies took aim at Donald Trump's views on global trade, while China's president made an impassioned call against the sort of protectionism favored by the president-elect at a summit of Asian-Pacific leaders on Saturday
    The Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation forum is taking place in Peru as world leaders are on edge over Trump's campaign pledges to protect U.S. jobs by backing out of the not-yet-implemented Trans-Pacific Partnership and renegotiating the North American Free Trade Agreement.
    Mexican President Enrique Pena Nieto said NAFTA benefits workers and companies on both sides of the border. Still, he expressed concern that the U.S. could be turning its back on a bilateral trade relationship responsible for moving $1 million worth of goods every minute.
    "In the face of Trump's positioning, we're now in a stage of favoring dialogue as a way to build a new agenda in our bilateral relationship," Pena Nieto told business leaders. "Mexico, like the entire world, is about to initiate a new stage with the U.S. and in commercial terms we want to give the right value to this strategic relationship between Mexico and the U.S."
    New Zealand's Prime Minister John Key spoke more bluntly, saying the "tremendous despair" triggered by Trump's trade views can't be allowed to slow down economic integration by the rest of the world.
    "Even if the United States doesn't want to engage in free trade, President Trump needs to know other countries do," said Key.
    He said it's still possible to save the 12-nation TPP negotiated by the Obama administration by introducing cosmetic changes making it acceptable to Trump or carving out a less ambitious pact among TPP signatories that leaves out the U.S.
    "I personally think that President Trump will be very much like chairman of the corporation Trump is," he said. "He's a flexible business guy. He's going to realize he has a role to play."
    Chinese President Xi Jinping delivered perhaps the most-forceful defense of free trade, given the size of his economy. In his kickoff speech from Peru he said the best response to rising protectionism would be for APEC's 21 members to negotiate a free trade area encompassing the entire Pacific Rim.
    "Closed and inclusive arrangements are not the right choice," Xi said, taking a veiled stab at the TPP, which excludes China and is widely seen as an attempt to reassert U.S. dominance in Asia. "Building a free trade area of the Asia-Pacific is a strategic initiative critical for long-term prosperity."
    Xi's remarks came as Chinese state media blasted Trump for "trade-bashing" rhetoric that threatens global economic stability.
    "The billionaire-turned-politician needs to prove that derailing the global economy has not been one of the reasons why he ran for U.S. president," official Xinhua news agency said in a commentary piece published Saturday.
    President Barack Obama warned against a rush to judgment on Trump, saying at a town hall on the margins of the summit that it's too early to conclude that the new administration will wipe out trade deals and create international problems.
    "Don't just assume the worst," he said. "Wait until the administration's in place" before drawing conclusions.
    Associated Press writers Darlene Superville, Franklin Briceno and Paul Traynor contributed to this report.
  • APEC ministers renew commitment to free trade
  • By Alexis Romero
















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    APEC ministers renew commitment to free trade
    LIMA – Ministers of the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) member-economies have renewed their commitment to free trade, vowed to help small businesses, blasted protectionism that they said distort trade and promised to fight corruption.
    In a nine-page joint statement on their meeting here on Nov. 17 and 18, the APEC ministers said open trade policies “are essential for sustained recovery and boosting growth for coming years.”
    “Faced with rising skepticism over trade and stagnated trade growth, we reiterate our commitment to build an open economy in the Asia-Pacific featuring innovative development, interconnected growth and shared interests,” the APEC ministers said.  
    “We also believe that the benefits of trade and open markets need to be communicated to the wider public more effectively, emphasizing how trade promotes innovation, employment and higher living standards, and creates opportunities for our citizens that can support inclusive growth,” they added. 
    The ministers also promised to use policy tools – monetary, fiscal, and structural – to strengthen global demand and address supply constraints.
    “We reaffirm our commitment to strengthen the multilateral trading system and recognize the important role of international trade to job creation, sustained economic recovery, development and prosperity,” they said. “We underline our confidence in the value and centrality of the rules-based, transparent, non-discriminatory, open and inclusive multilateral trading system embodied in the WTO (World Trade Organization).”
    Foreign Affairs Secretary Perfecto Yasay Jr. and Trade Secretary Ramon Lopez represented the Philippines during the two-day meeting.
    The APEC ministers’ meeting came amid concerns that the election of Donald Trump as the next president of the United States and the withdrawal of the United Kingdom from the European Union or “Brexit” could lead to protectionist policies that can stifle free trade. 
    Trump, who defied pollsters by defeating Hillary Clinton in the US presidential race, has vowed to dump the Trans Pacific Partnership, renegotiate the North American Free Trade Agreement and impose tariffs on countries like China and Mexico. 
    The UK, meanwhile, voted to leave the EU last June in a move seen as a protest against bailouts on less wealthy member countries, liberal immigration policies and restrictions that prevent the British government from signing its own trade deals.
    The ministers of the 21-member economic bloc promised to support the effort of the WTO and other international groups in monitoring protectionism, which they said would weaken trade.
    “We reaffirm the pledge made by our leaders against protectionism through a standstill commitment that we recommend be extended until the end of 2020 and to roll back protectionist and trade-distorting measures, which weaken trade and slow down the progress and recovery of the international economy,” the APEC ministers said.  
    “We reaffirm our collective and individual commitment to further promote trade and investment liberalization and facilitation and to reduce or eliminate restrictions and enhance cooperation to address ‘behind-the-border’ barriers through undertakings in line with APEC’s work on structural reform.” 
    The APEC ministers also cited the need to modernize micro, small and medium enterprises (MSMEs) and to work for an environment that would enable such businesses to flourish. They also vowed to help small businesses enhance their capacities and gain access to capital and information and communications technology infrastructure.
    “It is important for each APEC economy to promote MSMEs’ active participation in global value chains through measures to address challenges faced by MSMEs in conducting overseas business development (like) improving infrastructure (and) ensuring transparency in legal systems and business practices,” the ministers said. 
    To encourage investments, the APEC ministers promised to address corruption and other illegal trade practices.
    “We will commit to highlight the importance of best practices shared on the implementation of anti-corruption and anti-bribery compliance programs designed to prevent and detect bribery, considering incentives by member economies to encourage businesses to establish effective voluntary anti-corruption programs and support for our pathfinder dialogues on fighting corruption and illicit trade,” they said. 

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