Obama administration suspends Pacific trade deal vote effort

Reuters – 8 hours ago

ricky l 0 seconds ago

While US will be figuring out whether to suspend, cancel or re-negotiate the TPP, we should not wait under the context of World Economic slowdown. We, together with ASEAN should actively engage China to expedite the RECP trade agreement.
Trade deal and trade agreement is the catalyst for World Growth.
By finalising and signing the RECP trade agreement with China, Asia-Pacific trade and Economic Growth will surge ahead and benefit the entire Asia Pacific and boost business activities and create more jobs for Asia Pacific.
Reply
- ricky l 0 seconds ago
  
  The target for China is to ramp up trade to US$1 trillion from the couple of few hundred billion dollars.
- With the trade deal with China via RECP, I think we will be able to recover our trade loss from TPP suspension.
- We should expedite on the RECP trade agreement.
- - ricky l 0 seconds ago
    
    We should also catalysed and see whether EU as a bloc can be used to replace US into TPP - and renamed it as EU-TPP (European Union - Trans-Pan Pacific Trade Deal). I think this will have fully compensate for our loss in TPP with USA.
    ricky l 0 seconds ago
    
    Another possible trade deal that can be explore is the Asia-Pacific trade deal - that will involve ASEAN, China, India, Japan, S Korea, Australia, New-Zealand etc.
    
    This will be a big trade bloc if successful.
    
    Evolutionary Clairvoyance 4 hours ago
    
    ricky I... not too good if only China benefits while the rest of the nations in Asia are disadvantaged leh
    
    koh 8 hours ago
    
    ricky I or 1, we are already doing that. my keyboard, mouse and tablet lthat I am using now are all MADE IN CHINA.
    
    ricky l 0 seconds ago
    
    US want to increase infrastructure spending.
    
    To do that, US need fund - via fiscal budget. But US want to cut taxes. By cutting taxes, how to fund the infrastructure spending?
    
    So US say, cut tax to attract US companies to bring back profit and use the profit to fund the infrastructure spendings.
    
    So US government will have to borrow by issuing Treasury bond. This will further increase the public debt incur by the US Government which is now at US$20 trillion.
    
    But US want to curb trade - by stopping all the trade deals like TPP (Asia), TPIP (EU), want to relook at NAFTA (Canada and Mexico) etc. This will curb the trade revenue that will increase the US Treasury coffer to fund the infrastructure spendings - causing further fiscal deficit due to loss in trade.
    
    By curbing trade, the price of import to US will go up resulting in higher prices. This will led to imported inflation.
    
    To attract funds to come back to US, US will have to increase interest rate that will lead to higher borrowing cost as the higher interest rate is also meant to tame inflation.
    
    So with triple whammy of revenue reduction to US Treasury :-
    
    (1) Lost trade revenue - due to trade curb
    
    (2) Lost tax revenue - due to tax cut
    
    (3) Increase borrowing - lead to higher public debt
    
    ---- where will be US Economy heading?
    
    Reply
    
    ricky l 1 second ago
    
    To increase infrastructure spendings to boost economic activities, to repair old infrastructure and grow jobs is a right direction.
    
    To adopt fiscal policy as another economic tool to boost Economic growth is a right move.
    
    To use monetary policy as another economic tool to attract fund, to tame inflation and boost money inflow is a right move.
    
    But to curb trade - (a tool that grow its external Economy) - to bring in trade revenue is a wrong move. The above measures is growing its internal Economy - and the internal Economy and internal market is limited - up to about 300 million people.
    
    External Economy through trade is 6 billion people - and by curbing trade - means curbing trade revenue is not wise - especially when US need funds to fund its internal economy and infrastructure spendings.
    
    Also with trade along with trade revenue, it will help to reduce the public debt and reduce the amount of public borrowing to finance the infrastructure spendings.
    
    Thus freezing TPP (Asia), TPIP (EU) and NAFTA (Canada, Mexico) --- is a very unwise move --- as they easily bring in US$3 trillion & more ---- all going down the drain.
    
    And US public debt will shoot through the roof - which is now clock at US$20 trillion without trade revenue.
    
    ricky l 0 seconds ago
    
    And with US public debt at US$20 trillion - who will be lending money as the risk of default will become higher and higher when the debt balloon?
    
    Thus, many will not invest in US Treasury Bond - as the risk of default in payment will become higher and higher.
    
    Borrowing to finance infrastructure spendings may soon be an unfeasible option.
    
    Thus freezing, suspending trade deal is not a good move.
    
    ricky l 0 seconds ago
    
    In other words, US need 2 wings to fly.
    
    (1) Internal wing
    
    - infrastructure spendings to boost growth, tax reform, fiscal budget to finance = fiscal policies
    
    - attract fund, tame inflation, boost money supply, increase interest rate = monetary policies
    
    - boost domestic business activities, job growth, boost domestic consumption - improve tax revenue
    
    (2) External wing - increase trade revenue - boost trade - sign TPP (Asia Pac), TPIP (EU), NAFTA (modernise) - Canada, Mexico
    
    By freezing, suspending or worst cut trade deal ------ it is as good as clipping the External wing.
    
    US Economy will not be able to fly, it will dive not soar ----- as the public debt will soar and balloon with one wing clip.
    
    ricky l 0 seconds ago
    
    When US freeze, suspend or even cancel all trade deals - it means US will lose Global Worldwide influence overnight :-
    
    (1) TTIP - EU --- US will lose influence in Europe
    
    (2) TPP - Asia Pacific - US will lose influence in Asia-Pacific, Australia, New Zealand
    
    (3) NAFTA - Canada, Mexico - US will lose influence in Northern America
    
    Will US be great again?
    
    Reply
    
    ricky l 0 seconds ago
    
    Many people wrongly think that TPP only benefit the riches, the big corporations only.
    
    It is incorrect, it benefits a big spectrum of the economies.
    
    Eg. (1) Airport, airfreight, airlines
    
    (2) Seaport, seafrieght, shipping industries
    
    (3) Logistics company
    
    (4) Company that do export and import
    
    (5) Manufacturing that produce goods
    
    6) Service companies that produce services
    
    (7) Banks that guarantee LC (letter of credit), bank loans
    
    (8) Supporting companies that provide services to manufacturing, service companies
    
    (9) Oil, petrol - energy companies to provide energies to do above plus so many others etc etc etc
    
    -- it not only benefit big companies, also small companies, also many job workers, business etc.
    
    The whole economies will benefit.
    
    ricky l 0 seconds ago
    
    Never mind. US need time to figure out whether they want to suspend, freeze, re-negotiate or cancel --- let it be.
    
    No time to wait. Every day delay, billions of dollars lost.
    
    Time is money.
    
    We shall redouble and commit our resources to negotiate new trade deal with :-
    
    (1) China - RECP
    
    (2) initiate EU-TPP - all TPP members (except US) but include Canada, Mexico
    
    (3) initiate Asia-Pacific trade deal
    
    ricky l 0 seconds ago
    
    Historical lesson can tell whether a closed economy without trade is it good for Economic growth. Eg. Ancient China as closed economy that do not trade.
    
    N Korea as closed economy that do not trade.
    
    ricky l 0 seconds ago
    
    The 15th round of RCEP negotiation is held on October 11–22 in Tianjin, China.
    
    I think by redoubling the effort, RCEP will supercede TPP.
    
    RCEP potentially includes more than 3 billion people or 45% of the world's population, and a combined GDP of about $21.3 trillion, accounting for about 40 percent of world trade.
    
    We will all benefit from RCEP since TPP is freeze.
    
    Evolutionary Clairvoyance 3 hours ago
    
    Ricky, i sincerely find your assessment, evaluation and analysis flawed leh... regarding your latest and last post... u kept saying defaults... well, if US happens to default, do u know who happens to be the biggest loser... China =) Mind u... 1.185 trillion =)) Let's assume that some countries that benefit from China's foreign line of credit, Malaysia and Bangladesh... defaults as well. However, I am aware that China has the capacity to write off these debts... but these money could be better and well spent on improving the livelihoods of inland areas, rural areas and remote hilly regions... So what if China has fantastic infrastructures and facilities in the affluent coastal cities like Hangzhou, Shenzhen, Shanghai and Beijing, as well as first tier cities like Chongqing, Chengdu... when half the population in China are currently and still living in poverty or below the poverty line?! I only agree with a point that u had mentioned earlier... attracting home grown companies to be based in US... he is creating better job opportunities for the US citizens. By reducing corporate tax rates, the US government can induce the economy to grow and make the US more competitive which are critical solutions to the long-term fiscal issues facing their nation In case u are not aware, bills and laws are legislated and amended every few years. Congress, whether if it is Democrat dominant or Republican controlled, will continually explore different avenues to improve the state of domestic well being and foreign relations. I bet u must have missed what Trump stated.. "we will get along with all other nations willing to get along with us." Look at the about turn of President Duterte of the Philippines... after getting a sum of money from China, once the election is over, he is looking forward to working with Trump and reiterated his stand of continued allegiance and alliance... I bet if Clinton gets elected, Duterte would have said and emphasized on the same thing @William is right,after tons of QE, the inflation levels in US were pretty muted even though I acknowledge the success of the Obama administration to engineer an economic recovery since the subprime/Lehmann crisis. Don' forget that China is doing exactly the same thing right now... China's own QE, cutting and reducing bank's reserve ratio as well as amending the methodology to determine how banks should hold their reserves.. if US is bound for doom like u have speculated, then I reckon that China will follow suit in the medium term..
    
    William 4 hours ago
    
    Some things you write above not right lah. If you read papers, Trump not expected suspend trade deals as you said. He is going to RENEGOTIATE them to get a better deal. He is not as stupid as you think. Based on Feng Shui, Trump years are expected to be good. Another thing, what you say above for economics is only for normal countries. So far, the US money printing after Lehman did nothing to increase inflation. Who can move away from US Dollar? Maybe China and Russia? But be prepared to get backside beaten.
    
    ricky l 0 seconds ago
    
    Until we see US doing right and until we see US ratified the TPP, I will agree with @Evolutionary Clairvoyance and @William views.
    
    Meanwhile, we cannot wait for US while officially USA convey they have suspended TPP - this is the official statement.
    
    We cannot second guess what the US incoming administration will do - as officially TPP is off the agenda - according to the current US Administration and incoming US Administration that say they will not support TPP.
    
    We will have to go with China RCEP initiative - in which the last round of negotiation is held on 11-12 Oct 2016 - very recently in Tianjin China.
    
    The RCEP is real and I believe will be finalised very soon.
    
    Also, I think we should initiate TPP with EU, a very viable candidate to replace US with EU - whose economy makeup is very similar to US.
    
    Since US decide to drop TPP in which US has initiated, we cannot be left in the lurch and have to move on.
    
    EU will be a good candidate to fill the void from USA.
    
    USA will have to show the World whether USA is sincere to engage its Allies, its Trading Partners and even its Adversaries constructively.
    
    We will wait for USA to take the initiatives as we have signal to USA that we are willing to work with USA if USA want to work with us.
    
    If not we have to look for alternatives.
    
    Mikey 35 minutes ago
    
    #Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell said he would not take up TPP#...... Is the TPP really that good for the US or Asean?? If it really that worthwhile, why suspend pushing it thru'?? Is it another political action to throw a spanner in Trump's direction??
    
    Reply
    
    ricky l 0 seconds ago
    
    As US wait and postpone and suspend the TPP, China with the RCEP members (Asia Pacific) is surging ahead with the RCEP trade deal (that exclude US).
    
    RCEP trade deal will be able and adequate to compensate our loss in TPP.
    
    TPP is initiated by US that grossly benefit US in gaining access to Asia Pacific market - though we also benefit in accessing US market.
    
    But since US want to give up this priviliege, it is ok for us - as we have alternative trade deal to compensate our loss.
    
    The loss to US will be bigger - as US will lose access to 40% of the World trade market.
    
    Reply
    
    ricky l 0 seconds ago
    
    We have already completed the 15 round of negotiation in Tianjin China for the RCEP trade deal - should be closing soon.
    
    It will soon be able to supercede the TPP while US procastinate.
    
    Asia Pacific Economy will surge ahead with RCEP.
    
    US can take its time with TPP.
    
    Whether it comes or not is US panic, specifically the US business panic (losing business and causing job loss) not the Asia Pacific panic.
    
    ricky l 0 seconds ago
    
    And when US panic and want to go on with TPP when Asia Pacific members are cruising ahead with RCEP - it will be left to see whether TPP members still have the appetite to re-negotiate new terms on TPP that are meant to benefit more for US businesses with no corresponding benefits to other TPP members.
    
    ricky l 0 seconds ago
    
    What it means is that when RCEP supercede TPP, China and other RCEP members (Asia Pacific) will have privilege access to one another's market at competitive prices.
    
    US business without TPP will have no privilege and competitive prices into Asia Pacific market. This means US businesses will lose competitiveness in selling its products and services into Asia Pacific market (that constitute 40% of the total World trade market).
    
    This mean US businesses panic, and will translate into job losses for US - which China and Asia-Pacific business will surge ahead with the new RCEP trade pact.
    
    And then when US panic and want to re-negotiate a more favorable terms for US businesses for TPP, do you think the other TPP members will give in easily if these is done at their expenses?
    
    ricky l 1 second ago
    
    TPP is the most significant trade agreement the US is negotiating, representing 40% of world trade and a destination for over 60% of US exports.
    
    Now TPP is suspended by US themselves.
    
    The loss is on US.
    
    Reply
    
    John Lim 6 hours ago
    
    But production all in CHINA. And TPP is all the goods sell to USA ! 60% of US export of what product that produces by USA citizen is ?
    
    ricky l 0 seconds ago
    
    So does it means that US is not interested to trade?
    
    Does it means that US is not interested in privilege access and zero tariff to Asia Pacific market in exchange for the same privilege access and zero tariff by TPP members into US market?
    
    If US is not interested, China and other Asia Pacific countries will do so in Asia Pacific with RCEP trade deal and many US businesses will become non-competitive in Asia Pacific.
    
    Singapore 'disappointed' TPP may not be ratified after Trump win: PM Lee
    
    By Lim Jia Qi
    
    Posted 14 Nov 2016 20:59
    
    Updated 14 Nov 2016 21:10
    
    Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong at a joint press conference with President Joko Widodo in Semarang, Indonesia (Photo: Lim Jia Qi)
    
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    SEMARANG, Indonesia: Singapore is “disappointed” that the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) agreement may not be ratified before US President-elect Donald Trump takes office, said Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong on Monday (Nov 14).
    
    “We feel disappointed that the TPP looks very unlikely or will not be passed now, ratified now, before Jan 21 when the new president swears in,” said Mr Lee in a wrap-up interview with Singapore media after a leaders’ retreat with Indonesian President Joko Widodo.
    
    His comments came days after US President Barack Obama's administration suspended efforts to win congressional approval for the Asian free-trade deal.
    
    “I do not know what the new president's position will be,” Mr Lee added, but he noted President-elect Trump had stated his position clearly during his campaign trail that he would scrap the TPP.
    
    “I think that is disappointment for all of us who worked so hard to negotiate the TPP. But that is where it stands," said Mr Lee.
    
    The 12 countries that signed the TPP will meet at the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit in Peru this week to discuss the situation, he said.
    
    Asked about the possibility of revising the terms of the deal to exclude the US and include countries such as China, Mr Lee said that would not be easy. “We spent five, six years negotiating the TPP. Finally we got this very elaborate, carefully balanced deal, several thousand pages of texts. It's not so easy to say 'We change the terms',” he said.
    
    “What are you going to change? Who is going to give up more or less and what is the balance? And if you bring in a new country, it's a completely new deal all together. So effectively you'll be talking about a new exercise," Mr Lee added.
    
    “Because a new country - particularly if it's a big one - it's not going to sign on to everything which has already been agreed before they were participants.”
    
    Mr Lee pointed out that it is premature to pursue very definite alternative possibilities for now. “Let's first assess how everybody feels and what they think could be done as a practical, second-best or solution for the time being,” he said.
    
    - CNA/ly