26 May 2020 (12pm - 8pm)
REACH
[8:06 am, 26/05/2020] : Singapore's GDP expected to shrink between 4% to 7% as growth forecast cut again on COVID-19 impact
https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/singapore/worst-recession-gdp-forecast-cut-again-covid-19-12767948
[11:16 am, 26/05/2020] : [Sent by Gov.sg - 26 May]
COVID-19: Cautious Re-Opening
S'pore has significantly reduced community cases, but not eliminated virus
Cases will rise as activities resume
- Due to undetected cases in population
- Eg. 8 out of 16,000 pre-school teachers recently tested positive
- Countries that lifted restrictions cautiously saw smaller increase in cases
Phased re-opening necessary
- Not all activities re-open so as to minimise interactions
- Enable quick detection and ring-fencing of new cases
- Test population proactively
- If measures work, we will resume more activities before end Jun
Protecting lives and livelihoods
- More support measures in 4th Budget later today
More: go.gov.sg/lw-25may
[11:42 am, 26/05/2020] Greetings from REACH 🙂
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The topic for today will be posted shortly.
Megan
[11:50 am, 26/05/2020] : Dear contributors,
Welcome back! ☺️
⏰ Our chat will be open from 12pm to 8pm today.
🗒 REACH is constantly taking note of all the feedback and suggestions shared on our WhatsApp chats, and will send them to relevant authorities for consideration.
Please be reminded to be respectful and considerate to others in this WhatsApp chat group. 🙏🏼
The topic will be posted shortly.
- Megan
[11:59 am, 26/05/2020] : ⏰ Our chat will be open till 8pm today ⏰
📢 Topic 📢
How have the previously announced Unity, Resilience and Solidarity Budget supported you during this period?
At 3.30pm later today (26 May), a fourth support package called the 'Fortitude Budget' will be announced by Deputy Prime Minister and Minister for Finance Mr Heng Swee Keat in a ministerial statement on further plans to help businesses and people amid the ongoing COVID-19 outbreak. Jobs will be a key part of the Fortitude Budget.
This comes after the 3 previously announced support measures, under the Unity Budget speech in February, Resilience Budget speech in March and Solidarity Budget speech in April.
👉https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/singapore/covid-19-dpm-heng-swee-keat-speech-help-businesses-individuals-12749402
👉https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/singapore/covid-19-reserves-halimah-yacob-fortitude-budget-heng-swee-keat-12767544
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[12:01 pm, 26/05/2020] ☸️ Danny 心:
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The 4th Budget :-
(1) As companies lose business and people start losing jobs - it means business activities in the Economy has gone down and people with less disposable income will have less money to spend - that result in reducing consumption in the Economy.
(2) Both decrease in business activities and reduction in consumer consumption will dampen the Economy and lead to lower GDP growth.
(3) As a result, this means Government tax revenue will decrease - as lower consumption means lower GST collection and less business activities means lesser profit - and Government will collect lesser corporate tax and income tax.
(4) All these will result in a demultiplier effects on the Economy and lower Government revenue collection to finance next and future years' fiscal budget.
(5) The above will be the outcome - if Government do nothing to prop up the Economy when the Circuit Breaker ends - and the Economy open up in Phase 1.
----
With Government drawing on the reserves to prime the Economy - what will be merits and the drawback?
(1) The drawback is :-
a. When the reserves are again drawn out the 2nd time - Singapore Sovereign Fund will have lesser capital to invest on to earn investment income --- where 50% of the investment income known as the NIRC (Net Investment Return Contribution) can be used to fund the government spending in the annual fiscal budget.
b. What this mean is that, as there is a need to finance the healthcare, security, social welfare services, global climate defense, education, transport etc --- the reduction in NIRC contribution shortfall will need to be compensated from other income sources.
c. This income sources will be in the form of more taxes eg. GST, personal income tax, corporate tax etc.
d. Alternatively, there could be a need to resort to borrowing in the form of debt to finance future fiscal budget --- that will attract debt interest --- like what many other Countries are doing. (This is an undesirable option).
e. Another option, is to further draw on the reserves to finance the annual fiscal budget --- which is highly undesirable -- as we are depleting our reserves that can earn passive income -- to finance our running annual budget --- and soon all our reserves will be gone.
d. Thus, I hope this will be the last time we should draw on the reserves to finance the Economy while tackling the virus pandemic.
e. And we should be firm and assertive in clamping down on people who deliberate flout the social distancing rule -- such as not wearing face masks in public, not wearing the masks properly, break social distancing rules etc -- and not taking adequate measures to prevent the spread of the virus --- banking on the Government to render financial help perpetually --- when infection flare up and force the Government to close the Economy again.
f. Everytime we close the Economy - we are burning a big hole in our National Finance and depleting our National Wealth.
(2) The merits of this 4th Budgets are:-
a. We are keeping the business going and lesser business will go bust.
b. Many workers can still keep their jobs and earn salaries.
c. With business going and workers continue to earn salaries - business profit, consumer consumption will still keep the Economy going, GDP will go up and Government can still reap tax revenue from GST, corporate tax and income tax --- as the money spend stay within the internal Economy causing a multiplier effect - with little or no leakage.
d. When virus pandemic is over, all these business and jobs that are kept afloat can ramp up and jumpstart the Economy.
e. Hopefully when the Economy recover, Government will slowly replenish the money back to the reserves that were drawn out -- so that we can recoup back the loss soveregin capital, investment income and NIRC.
f. What we borrow now, we must return back later when we are doing well in the future.
[12:01 pm, 26/05/2020] ☸️ Danny 心:
https://www.straitstimes.com/sport/sports-facilities-to-remain-closed-in-phase-1-of-circuit-breaker-reopening-sport-singapore
(1) During the weekend when I buy dinner and went through a park - saw many people congregate as a group talking and walking with mask off, one family playing badminton with mask off, few old man sitting around a bench with mask off.
(2) The park is very crowded with so many people exercising in close quarter - and many did not maintain the social distancing of 1 metre with mask off.
(3) People already getting more and more complacent. And this is not the 1st time I witness such a scenario over the weekend. This weekend is more blatant.
(4) Suggest that face shield should be make mandatory for those jogging, brisk walk, doing exercise or cycling - so that everyone has protection in place when step out of the house.
(5) The pretext of not wearing masks during exercise - are giving people the excuse not to wear masks while congregating in the park --- and it become a potential hotspot for virus to spread especially when circuit breaker ends as more people will congregate in park to exercise.
(6) At least by making face shield mandatory for those who are out in exercise - will offer some form of protection not only for themselves but also the public at large.
Stanley
[12:05 pm, 26/05/2020] : Hope that ministers and MPs will take pay cut of 20-30% to contribute back to our reserves in this Budget announcement
Caleb
[12:17 pm, 26/05/2020] : as alot of Singaporean are affected by COVID
Rama
[12:20 pm, 26/05/2020] : Yes
Ken
[12:14 pm, 26/05/2020] : f. What we borrow now, we must return back later when we are doing well in the future.
😅😅😅 so more tax?
[12:15 pm, 26/05/2020] : Years to build the reserves
[12:21 pm, 26/05/2020] ☸️ Danny 心:
Grow the economy, work harder to earn more income.
With higher growth, government revenue will increase.
With more surplus, government can repay the borrowed money back to the reserves.
Rama
[12:22 pm, 26/05/2020] : My personal take on this, increased tax on liquor, tobacco, cigarettes, motor vehicles, property.
---
[3:10 pm, 26/05/2020] ☸️ Danny 心:
https://www.straitstimes.com/singapore/health/covid-19-patients-no-longer-infectious-11-days-after-getting-sick-research-shows
My close friend's comments :-
I read the above with apprehension.
(i) What does it mean if MOH accepts the proposed motion to discharge persons infected with covid 19 using time-based criteria? 90% of our cases are migrant workers. So they will be released back to dormitories and join the workforce as CB measures relax? Those who are still ill (regardless of whether they are covid 19 related or triggered) will be discharged from NCID and isolation wards to general wards?
Then it begs the next question:
(ii) Is the time-based discharge criteria absolutely fail-safe? What is the scientific evidence behind this motion? That the covid 19 virus will die off after 9 days in the human body? Or does this motion rely much on empirical evidence of 73 subjects? From probability statistical modelling, where do we place this "very confident" in the confidence level? Is it 95% confidence level? Or 99% confidence level? A quick check using a sample-size calculator shows that given a population size of 16199 (number of current active cases); at 99% confidence level; and with 73 subjects as the sample size; we get a margin of error of around 15.06%, meaning empirically there may be 2439 outliers who may still be infectious？ To reduce the margin of error, there needs to increase the sample size. E.g. At 99% confidence level, 3% margin of error, good sample size should be 1660 for 16199 active cases.
(2) this news came at a time when singapore is cautiously preparing to end the circuit breaker and resuming the activities in phases to avoid new cases flaring up. If the above is not absolutely fail-safe, it means we are sending positive cases back to the community. It takes Singapore about 1 month (barring resource constraints) to proactively test 15300 pre-school staff. At around halfway mark, it was reported that 7 were infected. And many of us were relieved at the news. Cannot imagine if as many as 2439 still infectious cases may be introduced back to the community and negate countless man-months of our containment efforts
(3) Singapore's medical team findings in this context is worth celebrating and we should be proud. Adopting it as position and discharged criteria has heavy considerations. We started the CB with 1481 cases on 7 apr. We have 31960 cases as at 25 May. The daily total new cases have not come down, subject to testing capacity. So we are not out of the woods yet. But life has to go on, the economy needs to resume before it is too late. Hence, the careful phased relaxation of CB measures. So many groups yearning for reprieve to fast forward the relaxation. They had never been covid 19 positive in the first place. Don't they deserve earlier resumption of activities?
(4) if MOH agrees with the proposed position, can the relevant authorities put in place mitigation measures please.
Ken
[3:14 pm, 26/05/2020] : 👍 wah use Z table, I am lazy 🤣🤣
But very good interpretation. Can’t find the publish studies.. anyway have link to it?
REACH
[3:14 pm, 26/05/2020] :
383 new Covid-19 cases in Singapore, including 1 Singaporean or PR
https://www.straitstimes.com/singapore/health/383-new-covid-19-cases-in-singapore-including-1-singaporean-or-pr?xtor=CS3-18&utm_source=STiPhone&utm_medium=share&utm_term=2020-05-26%2015%3A05%3A40
[3:19 pm, 26/05/2020] ☸️ Danny 心:
No link.
My close friend do the study.
Ken
[3:19 pm, 26/05/2020] : I mean the gov NCID study
[3:19 pm, 26/05/2020] : Only find the statement but no study
[3:20 pm, 26/05/2020] ☸️ Danny 心:
Well we read from the news article.
https://www.straitstimes.com/singapore/health/covid-19-patients-no-longer-infectious-11-days-after-getting-sick-research-shows
Ken
[3:21 pm, 26/05/2020] : Want to read the study lol... I am from scientific background so want to understand the study... 😆
[3:22 pm, 26/05/2020] : They never do peer review just by MOH approve or not can arh
[3:23 pm, 26/05/2020] ☸️ Danny 心:
NCID say it want to publish a medical journal.
A peer medical study done by Germany - but 8 or 9 persons - sample size very small.
WHO has not endorsed yet.
SS
[3:29 pm, 26/05/2020] : is it safe to said that the cases are more or less controlled? since most are still foreigners?
[3:30 pm, 26/05/2020] ☸️ Danny 心:
But this foreigners are part of our work force that will join the community.
====
REACH
[5:33 pm, 26/05/2020] +65 8637 2164: Supply chains shifts due to Covid-19 will impact economy but also present opportunities, says Chan Chun Sing
https://www.straitstimes.com/singapore/supply-chains-shifts-due-to-covid-19-will-impact-economy-but-also-present-opportunities?xtor=CS3-18&utm_source=STiPhone&utm_medium=share&utm_term=2020-05-26%2017%3A05%3A45
---
(1) This virus pandemic has cause many business to grind to a halt.
(2) But at the same time, the virus pandemic has force many businesses who did not transform fast enough to do a cold turkey transformation to exploit digital ecommerce in order to survive.
(3) This has fulfil ITM (Industry Transformation Map) objective of transforming many traditional industries and business to embrace digital technologies to grow their international reach - whether for big enterprises, medium enterprises and even small enterprises - in a double quick time.
(4) By doing so, our businesses can help the Economy to grow phenomenally as our domesitc market is make up of only 5.6 million consumers and $560 billion domestic market.
(5) By embracing digitial technology to transform their business into eCommerce with international reach - we are tapping into the vast international market of $90 trillion and 6 billion people international market - a much larger market and business opportunities for our Enterprises.
(6) The current fortitude budget has further catalyse business especially SMEs to digitise their payment system like "Paynow SQ QR code", making purchase orders through online eDelivery platofrm etc. - where not only neighborhood customers can order their foods - but also people living in other parts of the Country.
(7) SMEs such as retail can also tap on digital platform, and utilise our global logisitical hub and regional supply chain to sell their products even to overseas customers.
(8) All these will help our local business to grow - not only catering to the local domestic market but also to international market.
(9) The combined "brick and mortar" business plus the newly transformed digital eCommerce platform - will help our local business to expand their business and customer base - that include not only their traditional customers, it also include customers outside the neighborhood and even overseas customers.
(10) If many businesses in Singapore are successful in transforming their business to harness Digital eCommerce, then on aggregate - our Economy will have expanded many fold.
(11) When the virus pandemic is finally over, our business can jumpstart and become a springboard to make our Economy flourish and gorow phenomenally - when the world lockdown is removed.
(12) If we succeed in transfoming our aggrgated business and Economy during this virus pandemic, then in short time, Government can accumulate good surplus and repay the money back (a whopping $52 billion) to the reserves that we have borrowed to tie over this virus pandemic.
(13) If our reserves are continuously depleted, Singapore without natural resources --- will be in deep trouble --- as if the next crisis strike --- we have nothing left to cushion and help our business and people back to the pink of health.
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