27 Mar 2020 (10am - 10pm)
REACH
[9:50 am, 27/03/2020] : Greetings from REACH
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Megan 😊
[9:57 am, 27/03/2020] : Dear REACH contributors, welcome back!
Our chat will be opened from 10am to 10pm today.
Deputy Prime Minister and Minister for Finance Heng Swee Keat delivered a ministerial statement on Thursday (Mar 26), announcing about S$48 billion in additional support measures from the Government in response to the COVID-19 pandemic.
The Resilience Budget has three key areas: To save jobs and support workers; to help businesses overcome immediate challenges; and to strengthen economic and social resilience.
📢Today's Topic:📢
What are your views on the Supplementary Budget 2020? Which of the additional support measures would be helpful to you?
For more information on Supplementary Budget 2020, you may visit www.singaporebudget.gov.sg/budget_2020/resilience-budget
---
[11:57 am, 27/03/2020] ☸️ Danny 心:
Joint contribution with my close friend:-
(1) With the announcement of the Supplementary Budget 2020 - there are mixed double feeling :-
a. Firstly, a feeling of great relief as the budget provide cash to help individuals, help in the cashflow of businesses, help existing workers to keep their jobs and help new fresh graduates from IHL - Uni, Poly, ITE to find jobs through traineeships ---- in this crisis period of covid-19 pandemic
b. However, a subsequent downcast heavy heart feeling follows--- because for the 2nd time in history - we need to draw on our reserves (now $17 billion, 11% of our GDP).
- This means our reserves will be $17 billion lesser as it is drawn out from the Sovereign Fund that will help to generate more reserve income.
With lesser capital fund - it will be translated to earning lesser investment income as well as NIRC (Net Investment Return Contribution) - for next year and subsequent years --- that is used to finance our future Fiscal Budget.
- When this happen, in order to cover for the shortfall in NIRC ---- Singaporeans may have to pay more taxes in future to finance future fiscal Budget - to cover future Government spendings.
- By drawing on the reserves of the sum $17 billion to finance this supplementary budget - it means all the acuumulated $31 budget surplus plus the reserve income interest that we have earned all these years --- have all been used up - to come up with a total $48 billion supplementary budget.
(2) On hindsight, when this covid-19 pandemic finally subside and defeated --- the Government must conscientiously accumulate surplus and repay back the $17 billion we have drawn from the Soveregin Fund to fight this pandemic.
The reserve fund used - must be viewed as a temporary loan drawn from the Sovereign Fund --- a debt that is borrow by #SG United (Singapore) - and we all have the obligation to repay it back to the reserve when the pandemic is over --- and when we all must work hard to accumulate surplus to repay this loan.
Rama
[11:57 am, 27/03/2020] : 😔😞😣😒
[12:08 pm, 27/03/2020] ☸️ Danny 心:
CNA news - US overtaken China to be the top confirmed cases.
[12:08 pm, 27/03/2020] ☸️ Danny 心: https://www.thestar.com.my/news/world/2020/03/27/us-tops-world-in-covid-19-cases-overtaking-china-and-italy
Lau Kheng Siong
[12:08 pm, 27/03/2020] : How to repay back?
They are digging into the reserve to tie over this difficult period. Not doing that, will make the situation worse.
When you dig into your personal saving in time of crisis, will you ensure that you return them back when things are normalised. No, you just save as usual, as how you have been saving for rainy day as before and let your saving accumulate at its own timing.
If it is a loan, then there will be a time factor involve.
Every loan will be and must be paid back by a certain time frame. That will be pressurising.
When the outbreak is under control. It will take quite sometime before the economy can return back to normal.
[12:09 pm, 27/03/2020] ☸️ Danny 心: Last drawn out of reserves was repay back.
Peter T Ng
[12:10 pm, 27/03/2020] : Not all budgeted will be spent, eg Gov bank guarantee during the Lehman crisis. As this is a storm it is appropriate to use so all can survive this round. When things return to normal, we save up again
[12:13 pm, 27/03/2020] ☸️ Danny 心: This is the right spirit of using reserves.
Peter T Ng
[12:13 pm, 27/03/2020] : Yes use only to the extent necessary and with responsibility
Lau Kheng Siong
[12:16 pm, 27/03/2020] : It may be considered as repay back, but, in actual fact, it is just their normal accumulation of wealth.
There is no time frame that they are pressurised to do it.
They just carryon their saving habit and let the wealth accumulate back.
If you take is as loan, then there will be lesser or no saving for a long period of time, as every cents we accumulated will be considered as paying back to the loan. Hence, our annual budget will be always negative, due to an outstanding loan.
[12:17 pm, 27/03/2020] ☸️ Danny 心:
Else "Gold mountain, silver mountain" will be gone in no time.
Else why needs a second key President and Presidential council to look after the reserves?
[12:20 pm, 27/03/2020] ☸️ Danny 心:
Whatever you call it, the mindset must be to repay back.
This must be the right spirit of using the reserves.
Rama
[12:21 pm, 27/03/2020] : 😱😨😔😞😣
---
Lau Kheng Siong
[12:35 pm, 27/03/2020] : That is true, in a sense that future Government might not misused the reserve.
What I am saying is that, when we withdraw from the saving for necessities, it can't be a loan.
If it is a loan, then this deficit will be around for sometime. As any near future profit will be minus out and declared as deficit.
Hence our near future economy will not reflect the real situation. We might be enjoying better economy, but, our growth still reflect as negative, because we term this withdrawal as a loan.
If it is withdraw and not taken as a loan. Our annual report will reflect correctly, if it is a growth, then it will be reflected as one.
We go on saving and accumulating and through time, whatever we have taken out will be put back, like usual way of saving.
---
Lau Kheng Siong
[12:35 pm, 27/03/2020] : That is true, in a sense that future Government might not misused the reserve.
What I am saying is that, when we withdraw from the saving for necessities, it can't be a loan.
If it is a loan, then this deficit will be around for sometime. As any near future profit will be minus out and declared as deficit.
Hence our near future economy will not reflect the real situation. We might be enjoying better economy, but, our growth still reflect as negative, because we term this withdrawal as a loan.
If it is withdraw and not taken as a loan. Our annual report will reflect correctly, if it is a growth, then it will be reflected as one.
We go on saving and accumulating and through time, whatever we have taken out will be put back, like usual way of saving.
[1:05 pm, 27/03/2020] ☸️ Danny 心: I agree as long as the right spirit of using the reserves is correct.
[1:06 pm, 27/03/2020] ☸️ Danny 心:
My close friend additional comments:-
Remembering our founding leaders, Pioneer and Merdeka generations - they spent their lives lifting up Singapore and now we have to dip into their savings to save Singapore and Singaporeans. Please remember to emerge stronger and put back more than what we took
Ron Ho
[1:08 pm, 27/03/2020] : What I suspect is NRIC dividends are from GIC and Temasek investments which are current surpluses, while Sovereign Wealth Funds which is not talked about may be locked in more capital secured investments, and these may be in deposits with huge financial and government institutions. While $17B is indicated to be earmarked for this Covid19 war, I suspect we will likely draw out less, and the drawdown over the years, will be repaid back as the economy is running well. We are fortunate to have a government who, having been in power since 1959, have been prudent in their spending, been vigorous in their savings, and fiercely strong in making sure corrupted hands dont touch the pie. I hope this attitude and behaviour continues in the next many generations to come as we have seen countries being bankrupted through incompetence, mismanagement and corruption.
Elena Woo
[1:11 pm, 27/03/2020] : 👏🏻👏🏻👏🏻👏🏻
[1:12 pm, 27/03/2020] ☸️ Danny 心:
Agree and I am relief that Singaporeans are prudent in using our reserves - our only resources other than manpower that we must jealously guard and use as last resort.
And when used must be obliged to pay back and more if we can.
bbmag
[1:13 pm, 27/03/2020] : and too many people eyeing the reserves for short-term solutions or to mimic some populist policies that may not be suitable for our society.
not sustainable too probably
the more and the more easily we touch the reserves, the less we have in our war chest. and when the real war or stormy rainy days really come, we have less resources to help ourselves
[1:15 pm, 27/03/2020] ☸️ Danny 心:
That's why our 2nd key President and Presidential Council will be very wise to safeguard our precious reserves and approved its used wisely.
Leonard Lau
[1:19 pm, 27/03/2020] : Vote wisely ..
bbmag
[1:21 pm, 27/03/2020] : really cannot take what we have for granted~
cos of the mention of gst hike in the unity budget, i went to read up abit on how most other countries fund their expenditure
i think we really have something special
most govts in the world relies on taxation as a main source of revenue, and also licensing fees and other fees. and many borrow. then every year, part of their expenditures gotta be spent on interest/loan repayment, instead of social welfare, transfers, or investing for future and infrastucture
but here, our income taxes remain low (in fact half of sporeans don’t even pay tax), and our GST is really not that bad you know. those who have lived in or bought stuff in US or europe would u/std the pain
[1:23 pm, 27/03/2020] : anyway some pple have called for removing gst even
then use what to fund add’l demands coming from diff segments of the population? esp ageing-related healthcare?
some say we got reserves what
ya right
if everything tap on reserves, like what someone said previously, even if we have gold mountain or silver mountain, also not enough leh
[1:24 pm, 27/03/2020] : even if raised to 9%, i think still manageable. esp since our GST voucher scheme is a permanent one that helps the lower income singaporeans cope. plus other social transfers too
[1:26 pm, 27/03/2020] : anyway in case you think i’m off topic, i just wanna say our entire approach towards $ and reserve mgmt, the prudence and farsightedness are probably what have allowed us to shore up strong reserves to help us tide over these challenging times
[1:26 pm, 27/03/2020] ☸️ Danny 心:
This type of politics I will be honing my hawk eyes on if they abused the reserves.
Quite a number of oppositions are of such category.
Lau Kheng Siong
[12:35 pm, 27/03/2020] : That is true, in a sense that future Government might not misused the reserve.
What I am saying is that, when we withdraw from the saving for necessities, it can't be a loan.
If it is a loan, then this deficit will be around for sometime. As any near future profit will be minus out and declared as deficit.
Hence our near future economy will not reflect the real situation. We might be enjoying better economy, but, our growth still reflect as negative, because we term this withdrawal as a loan.
If it is withdraw and not taken as a loan. Our annual report will reflect correctly, if it is a growth, then it will be reflected as one.
We go on saving and accumulating and through time, whatever we have taken out will be put back, like usual way of saving.
[1:05 pm, 27/03/2020] ☸️ Danny 心: I agree as long as the right spirit of using the reserves is correct.
[1:06 pm, 27/03/2020] ☸️ Danny 心:
My close friend additional comments:-
Remembering our founding leaders, Pioneer and Merdeka generations - they spent their lives lifting up Singapore and now we have to dip into their savings to save Singapore and Singaporeans. Please remember to emerge stronger and put back more than what we took
Ron Ho
[1:08 pm, 27/03/2020] : What I suspect is NRIC dividends are from GIC and Temasek investments which are current surpluses, while Sovereign Wealth Funds which is not talked about may be locked in more capital secured investments, and these may be in deposits with huge financial and government institutions. While $17B is indicated to be earmarked for this Covid19 war, I suspect we will likely draw out less, and the drawdown over the years, will be repaid back as the economy is running well. We are fortunate to have a government who, having been in power since 1959, have been prudent in their spending, been vigorous in their savings, and fiercely strong in making sure corrupted hands dont touch the pie. I hope this attitude and behaviour continues in the next many generations to come as we have seen countries being bankrupted through incompetence, mismanagement and corruption.
Elena Woo
[1:11 pm, 27/03/2020] : 👏🏻👏🏻👏🏻👏🏻
[1:12 pm, 27/03/2020] ☸️ Danny 心:
Agree and I am relief that Singaporeans are prudent in using our reserves - our only resources other than manpower that we must jealously guard and use as last resort.
And when used must be obliged to pay back and more if we can.
bbmag
[1:13 pm, 27/03/2020] : and too many people eyeing the reserves for short-term solutions or to mimic some populist policies that may not be suitable for our society.
not sustainable too probably
the more and the more easily we touch the reserves, the less we have in our war chest. and when the real war or stormy rainy days really come, we have less resources to help ourselves
[1:15 pm, 27/03/2020] ☸️ Danny 心:
That's why our 2nd key President and Presidential Council will be very wise to safeguard our precious reserves and approved its used wisely.
Leonard Lau
[1:19 pm, 27/03/2020] : Vote wisely ..
bbmag
[1:21 pm, 27/03/2020] : really cannot take what we have for granted~
cos of the mention of gst hike in the unity budget, i went to read up abit on how most other countries fund their expenditure
i think we really have something special
most govts in the world relies on taxation as a main source of revenue, and also licensing fees and other fees. and many borrow. then every year, part of their expenditures gotta be spent on interest/loan repayment, instead of social welfare, transfers, or investing for future and infrastucture
but here, our income taxes remain low (in fact half of sporeans don’t even pay tax), and our GST is really not that bad you know. those who have lived in or bought stuff in US or europe would u/std the pain
[1:23 pm, 27/03/2020] : anyway some pple have called for removing gst even
then use what to fund add’l demands coming from diff segments of the population? esp ageing-related healthcare?
some say we got reserves what
ya right
if everything tap on reserves, like what someone said previously, even if we have gold mountain or silver mountain, also not enough leh
[1:24 pm, 27/03/2020] : even if raised to 9%, i think still manageable. esp since our GST voucher scheme is a permanent one that helps the lower income singaporeans cope. plus other social transfers too
[1:26 pm, 27/03/2020] : anyway in case you think i’m off topic, i just wanna say our entire approach towards $ and reserve mgmt, the prudence and farsightedness are probably what have allowed us to shore up strong reserves to help us tide over these challenging times
[1:26 pm, 27/03/2020] ☸️ Danny 心:
This type of politics I will be honing my hawk eyes on if they abused the reserves.
Quite a number of oppositions are of such category.
bbmag
[1:30 pm, 27/03/2020] : v scary the ageing-popn related healthcare costs
some numbers to scare you too
- we will go from 450k to 900k elderly by 2030
- half of spore popn expected to be elderly by 2050
- as an example, no. of cataract operations done on elderly has gone from 10k in 2000 to 30k in 2019
pple somemore living longer, we beat japan last year to become country with highest life expectancy (84.8 yrs old)
then need a lot of money for healthcare leh.... the money has to come from somewhere, right?
[2:11 pm, 27/03/2020] ☸️ Danny 心:
Joint contribution with my close friend :-
Part I
(1) Look at the chart attached :_
- Singapore, HK, Japan and even S Korea did not do a complete lockdown but a calibrated surgical approach to tackle the covid-19 pandemic.
- We view Singapore and the above similar Countries as adopting the "Whole of China approach but lockdown only Hubei/Wuhan", not the "Hubei/Wuhan complete lockdown approach".
- Our calibrated surgical approach -- attempt to balance the tackling of the virus vis-a-vis ensuring the Economy continue to move along without a complete shutdown that will cripple the livelihood of all Singaporeans and Singapore Economy will be worst than the -2.2% GDP contraction.
- Lockdown the whole Singpaore will be tantamount to "Madness", "Doomsday approach" --- that is equivalent to committing "Economic suicide" ---- total Madness. Because if covid-19 go on for more than 1 year - are we going to lockdown for 1 year - and all die of hunger and all our finances all used up? It is not practical and totally absurd, totally paranoid to the extreme sense.
Just notice a quote from our former forefather Mr Lee Kuan Yew on SARs when he is a Senior Minister that mirror the current covid-19 situation we faced now:-
“Life must go on. We cannot stop working and living, but we must take all necessary precautions.”
"Fear and panic just as deadly Lee also warned that it was not the disease that was to cause the worst impact, but the “fear and panic it arouses”."
SARs took about 4% lives. Covid-19 is more infectious --- also took about 4 - 4.5% lives.
We can take similar approach like SARs --- a calibrated surgical approach to tackle covid-19 --- and not jump into "total madness approach" not anchor on the foundation of Model to tackle infectious diseases - based on medical science, math, capacity model.
PM Lee Hsien Loong quote 26 Mar 2020
"The prime minister suggested three areas of collaboration in his statement. Firstly, he noted that even if each country succeeds in eradicating the virus within its own borders, there remains the risk of importing new cases from other countries.
"All of us are only as strong as our weakest link. Thus, we must cooperate, share expertise and experience, and help one another," said Mr Lee.
He also noted how every government is "doing everything possible to save businesses and jobs" amid the economic downturn.
"I am glad that our finance ministers and central bank governors are coordinating fiscal and monetary policies to prevent this," he said. "
- Looking at the above chart --- Singapore, HK, Japan, S Korea --- virus epidemic are not out of control - as compared to many advanced developed Countries. We still can maintain as DORSCON "orange" --- with more calibrated prevention approach to slow the spread.
eg.
i. Enhanced border measures --- to quarantine overseas returnees in dedicated quarantine centers like hotel etc without infecting family members and Community.
ii. Enhanced Community Spreading measures - like elaborate social distancing, split workforce, telecommuting work at home, reduce gathering to < 10, close entertainment centres and enrichment class for 1 month etc.
More contact tracing team to track , use Tracetogether for some, my close friend concept of "Crowd mapping of mobile signals" etc.
All these will slow or if we are lucky can stop Community spreading --- as the virus survive for 14 days.
a. With well implemented social distancing ----- it is possible to slow community spreading - as those "mild asymptomatic case" will heal by 14 days - and no longer spread the virus --- even if not detected.
b. Alternatively, Government can conduct more test kits testing --- with elaborate contact tracing.
Note :- Malaysia conduct about 560 tests per million people.
Singapore's 4,500 tests per million.
Indonesia - single-digit figures.
My close friend remarks :-
"HK started social distancing much earlier than us.civil servants all worked from home. Just when they started going back, it was met with an exodus of returnees and cases shot up. Then they go back to WFH (work from home) again. Also, most people wore masks. ----( thus HK infection rate is respectable ---- close to Singapore infection rate.)
However, there are more unlinked cases in Singapore like yesterday 13, today 14 worry me abit - as it may signify community spreading if not link to any current clusters or imported cases."
We feel that :-
a. with better social distancing ---- mild case will run its full course by itself in 14 days
b. more testing done with test kit - and quick quarantine
--- both approach will contain Community Spreading.
--- again the chart provide statistical evidence that it did not go out of control in Singapore --- and we can operate on the mode of DORSCON Orange -- and not jump to DORSCON Red.
c. Most important, we with collaboration with China, West should ramp up effort to devleop vaccines and treatment --- so that covid-19 can be defeated.
Quote from PM Lee :-
"Finally, Mr Lee called on countries to bring together their scientific communities and resources to develop a cure or vaccine for COVID-19.
"This will shorten the crisis and save lives. COVID-19 will end eventually but it will not be the last pandemic the world will face.
"We should therefore learn from our experience and strengthen our preparedness for future pandemics, in the same way some Asian countries have emerged stronger from our experience with SARS," he said. "
Part II -- Can we suggest "self-lockdown" to DORSCON red -- for some vulnerable group - eg. pre-existing respiratory condition or health problem (without pulling the rest of the country to impose "full lockdown" from DORSCO orange --- when the situation does not warrant it) ....
aka datang ...
----
[2:18 pm, 27/03/2020] ☸️ Danny 心: ----
Part II -- Can we suggest "self-lockdown" to DORSCON red -- for some vulnerable group - eg. pre-existing respiratory condition or health problem (without pulling the rest of the country to impose "full lockdown" from DORSCO orange --- when the situation does not warrant it)
(1) Vulnerable people suffering from respiratory problem or health problem --- should be allowed to choose to operate on DORSCON red mode --- if they choose to.
a. They can self-lockdown at home --- and use online to order food and supply.
b. They can do online learning if they have children at home --- and suggest Government can get Schools to customise online learning for their children.
c. Those in self-lockdown can also work at home --- and business should help to facilitate such work-at-home for those self-imposed lockdown.
(2) This group can impose self-lockdown for assume 6 month to 1 year -- and Government, School and Business should help to ensure these group got the necessary support.
(3) By doing so, these vulnerable group can be protected with DORSCON red --- while the Nation can still operate with Dorscon Orange without the need to go on red --- when not required --- but still keep the Economy going.
---
Suma
[9:52 pm, 27/03/2020] : sorry carry on with Your Discussion
I am in no mood to do so
Take care
Blue and White Flag Guy
[2:20 pm, 27/03/2020] : Yet those Hong Kongers decided to continue protesting for a bit after the virus outbreak wow
Ron Ho
[2:24 pm, 27/03/2020] : Many good points. Adding... business should be compelled to have those staff who can WFH not come to the office
Leonard Lau
[2:24 pm, 27/03/2020] : Reach .. can you please feedback to relevant authorities that we need better enforcement for the social distancing rules . It is not observe in most places .
[2:29 pm, 27/03/2020] ☸️ Danny 心:
(1) However we will like to emphasize that :-
"There are more unlinked cases in Singapore like yesterday 13, today 14 worry me abit - as it may signify community spreading if not link to any current clusters or imported cases."
a. Will REACH able to update us everyday --- how did the unlinked cases go or resolved?
Is there a signal of wider community spreading?
b. Does those who install Tracetogether mobile apps help in expediting contact tracing?
c. Does the "Crowd mapping through mobile signals" help in expediting contact tracing?
d. Has the ramping up of Contact tracing teams --- manage to find the links of those "unlinked cases" --- to existing clusters or imported cases?
--- If we have updates to all the above ---- I think we can help to think of more solutions --- to arrest the "gap" from "Community Spreading".
Leonard Lau
[2:34 pm, 27/03/2020] :
Contact tracing is too time consuming especially infected tend to forget their activities .
Thus introducing and using trace together app hopes to ease issues however it is power draining .
One of the alternative way is to suggest everyone to write a small log of what they do on the daily basis which can be handy when one is infected .
Blue and White Flag guy
[2:40 pm, 27/03/2020] : Agreed. Also maybe more signage reminding people. Use the space for community banners. Make the message serious not comedy.
[2:40 pm, 27/03/2020] ☸️ Danny 心:
Crowd mapping through mobile signal can solve this.
Download all IMEI numbers from Telco base station in the vicinity.
Use AI big data to pull out the right data and present them in model.
Many AI trained people can do it. Matter of hours you can get the complete picture.
Leonard Lau
[2:43 pm, 27/03/2020] : It does not give you the exact location of the person also many other constraints .
Eg , if the infected is found in the toilet , does it means all the people in the toilet is related as a close contact?
[2:45 pm, 27/03/2020] ☸️ Danny 心:
True not foolproof.
But cover the majority.
Toilet will need cleaners to clean more frequently.
Timing of cleaning determine who in the vicinity likely contacted.
Leonard Lau
[2:48 pm, 27/03/2020] : You missed my point on the toilet example .
Anyway , I believe the authority is doing something similar with basestation poll but i can confirm it isn’t effective .
Blue and White Flag Guy
[2:49 pm, 27/03/2020] : Actually he didn't miss your point, he brought up another good point, the on-site (toilet) point
Both of you have IT background, put that to good use 😊
Leonard Lau
[2:51 pm, 27/03/2020] : Nope.. he missed my point on the toilet ..
Blue and White Flag Guy
[2:52 pm, 27/03/2020] : You see his third line, unlikely he missed your point completely
[2:52 pm, 27/03/2020] ☸️ Danny 心:
I am surprised if not effective because it is like tracetogether mobile apps with the time, duration and location.
Blue and White Flag Guy
[2:52 pm, 27/03/2020] : He saw your Target but went off tangent 🤣 did you offended him 🤭
[2:53 pm, 27/03/2020] : Armour deflect? 🤭
[2:53 pm, 27/03/2020] : Got blinders.. emotional blinders or sun glasses
[2:55 pm, 27/03/2020] ☸️ Danny 心: China and SKorea are also using base station techniques.
Leonard Lau
[2:56 pm, 27/03/2020] : Nothing to do with cleanliness .. my friend .
My example was ..
A base station will poll all the people using it . If users are in toilet , it will polled as well . What value does rhis data meant to the investigator ? If the infected stayed in the toilet for 30mins , does it mean the next cubicle is a contact ?
Contact tracers are already busy .. don’t provide them more irrelevant data for investigation.
[2:57 pm, 27/03/2020] ☸️ Danny 心:
No you are wrong.
Your handphone associated with any Base station that come close. No need to make call.
Leonard Lau
[2:58 pm, 27/03/2020] : I know ..
[2:59 pm, 27/03/2020] ☸️ Danny 心:
Data not irrelevant.
The Home Team is doing it currently.
Leonard Lau
[3:00 pm, 27/03/2020] : My data refer to the records of base-station is polling of imei ..
[3:03 pm, 27/03/2020] ☸️ Danny 心: When handphone associated with base station - IMEI recorded in a log.
Leonard Lau
[3:06 pm, 27/03/2020] : Yes log .. that is what I meant as the data .
[3:08 pm, 27/03/2020] ☸️ Danny 心: When contact tracers pull out all the IMEI records in the log - all those in the vicinity at that time, duration, location will be retrieved and contact tracing can start.
So why not effective?
Leonard Lau
[3:08 pm, 27/03/2020] +: But my question to you is the Imei details is the handphone more important or the SSN?
[3:09 pm, 27/03/2020] ☸️ Danny 心: Don't understand your question?
[3:10 pm, 27/03/2020] ☸️ Danny 心: IMEI is the unique number in the SIM card that identified the handphone user that sign the contract.
Blue and White Flag Guy
[3:10 pm, 27/03/2020] : IMEI or SSN
[3:10 pm, 27/03/2020] : SSN is SIM S/N, which is definitely tied to the person's NRIC
[3:11 pm, 27/03/2020] : I'm sure with your knowledge you already know what SSN is lah
[3:12 pm, 27/03/2020] : IMEI is the physical device's ID, macam MAC address like that, tied to the device itself de so in that sense, SSN is better than IMEI at tracing
[3:13 pm, 27/03/2020] ☸️ Danny 心: Good points. Both IMEI and ssn are used.
[3:15 pm, 27/03/2020] ☸️ Danny 心: I don't claim to know everything.
But the technology is there and my message is crowd mapping through mobile signal is effective.
Leonard Lau
[3:15 pm, 27/03/2020] : Imei is with the phone .. I buy a phone direct from HK , how would G knows my device ..
did u know that Imei can be fake ..
Please think deep .. Thanks
[3:16 pm, 27/03/2020] ☸️ Danny 心: IMEI and I miss the SSN.
SSN is log as well.
So is it effective?
Leonard Lau
[3:21 pm, 27/03/2020] : Not really helpful because the log cannot pinpoint distance and many other things .. that’s why trace together is a better app.
Use Bluetooth to poll distance and other important attributes . This will help to speed up investigation .
[3:36 pm, 27/03/2020] ☸️ Danny 心: GPS extender pinpoint exact location
[4:58 pm, 27/03/2020] ☸️ Danny 心:
GPS tell contact tracers which toilets a person go.
Tracetogether don't tell which toilets one goes. Got to ask them verbally if they remember.
Rama
[4:58 pm, 27/03/2020] : 😱😨😄☺️😊🙂
Jimmy Chew
[5:01 pm, 27/03/2020] : Hahaha 🤣👍
[1:30 pm, 27/03/2020] : v scary the ageing-popn related healthcare costs
some numbers to scare you too
- we will go from 450k to 900k elderly by 2030
- half of spore popn expected to be elderly by 2050
- as an example, no. of cataract operations done on elderly has gone from 10k in 2000 to 30k in 2019
pple somemore living longer, we beat japan last year to become country with highest life expectancy (84.8 yrs old)
then need a lot of money for healthcare leh.... the money has to come from somewhere, right?
[2:11 pm, 27/03/2020] ☸️ Danny 心:
Joint contribution with my close friend :-
Part I
(1) Look at the chart attached :_
- Singapore, HK, Japan and even S Korea did not do a complete lockdown but a calibrated surgical approach to tackle the covid-19 pandemic.
- We view Singapore and the above similar Countries as adopting the "Whole of China approach but lockdown only Hubei/Wuhan", not the "Hubei/Wuhan complete lockdown approach".
- Our calibrated surgical approach -- attempt to balance the tackling of the virus vis-a-vis ensuring the Economy continue to move along without a complete shutdown that will cripple the livelihood of all Singaporeans and Singapore Economy will be worst than the -2.2% GDP contraction.
- Lockdown the whole Singpaore will be tantamount to "Madness", "Doomsday approach" --- that is equivalent to committing "Economic suicide" ---- total Madness. Because if covid-19 go on for more than 1 year - are we going to lockdown for 1 year - and all die of hunger and all our finances all used up? It is not practical and totally absurd, totally paranoid to the extreme sense.
Just notice a quote from our former forefather Mr Lee Kuan Yew on SARs when he is a Senior Minister that mirror the current covid-19 situation we faced now:-
“Life must go on. We cannot stop working and living, but we must take all necessary precautions.”
"Fear and panic just as deadly Lee also warned that it was not the disease that was to cause the worst impact, but the “fear and panic it arouses”."
SARs took about 4% lives. Covid-19 is more infectious --- also took about 4 - 4.5% lives.
We can take similar approach like SARs --- a calibrated surgical approach to tackle covid-19 --- and not jump into "total madness approach" not anchor on the foundation of Model to tackle infectious diseases - based on medical science, math, capacity model.
PM Lee Hsien Loong quote 26 Mar 2020
"The prime minister suggested three areas of collaboration in his statement. Firstly, he noted that even if each country succeeds in eradicating the virus within its own borders, there remains the risk of importing new cases from other countries.
"All of us are only as strong as our weakest link. Thus, we must cooperate, share expertise and experience, and help one another," said Mr Lee.
He also noted how every government is "doing everything possible to save businesses and jobs" amid the economic downturn.
"I am glad that our finance ministers and central bank governors are coordinating fiscal and monetary policies to prevent this," he said. "
- Looking at the above chart --- Singapore, HK, Japan, S Korea --- virus epidemic are not out of control - as compared to many advanced developed Countries. We still can maintain as DORSCON "orange" --- with more calibrated prevention approach to slow the spread.
eg.
i. Enhanced border measures --- to quarantine overseas returnees in dedicated quarantine centers like hotel etc without infecting family members and Community.
ii. Enhanced Community Spreading measures - like elaborate social distancing, split workforce, telecommuting work at home, reduce gathering to < 10, close entertainment centres and enrichment class for 1 month etc.
More contact tracing team to track , use Tracetogether for some, my close friend concept of "Crowd mapping of mobile signals" etc.
All these will slow or if we are lucky can stop Community spreading --- as the virus survive for 14 days.
a. With well implemented social distancing ----- it is possible to slow community spreading - as those "mild asymptomatic case" will heal by 14 days - and no longer spread the virus --- even if not detected.
b. Alternatively, Government can conduct more test kits testing --- with elaborate contact tracing.
Note :- Malaysia conduct about 560 tests per million people.
Singapore's 4,500 tests per million.
Indonesia - single-digit figures.
My close friend remarks :-
"HK started social distancing much earlier than us.civil servants all worked from home. Just when they started going back, it was met with an exodus of returnees and cases shot up. Then they go back to WFH (work from home) again. Also, most people wore masks. ----( thus HK infection rate is respectable ---- close to Singapore infection rate.)
However, there are more unlinked cases in Singapore like yesterday 13, today 14 worry me abit - as it may signify community spreading if not link to any current clusters or imported cases."
We feel that :-
a. with better social distancing ---- mild case will run its full course by itself in 14 days
b. more testing done with test kit - and quick quarantine
--- both approach will contain Community Spreading.
--- again the chart provide statistical evidence that it did not go out of control in Singapore --- and we can operate on the mode of DORSCON Orange -- and not jump to DORSCON Red.
c. Most important, we with collaboration with China, West should ramp up effort to devleop vaccines and treatment --- so that covid-19 can be defeated.
Quote from PM Lee :-
"Finally, Mr Lee called on countries to bring together their scientific communities and resources to develop a cure or vaccine for COVID-19.
"This will shorten the crisis and save lives. COVID-19 will end eventually but it will not be the last pandemic the world will face.
"We should therefore learn from our experience and strengthen our preparedness for future pandemics, in the same way some Asian countries have emerged stronger from our experience with SARS," he said. "
Part II -- Can we suggest "self-lockdown" to DORSCON red -- for some vulnerable group - eg. pre-existing respiratory condition or health problem (without pulling the rest of the country to impose "full lockdown" from DORSCO orange --- when the situation does not warrant it) ....
aka datang ...
----
[2:18 pm, 27/03/2020] ☸️ Danny 心: ----
Part II -- Can we suggest "self-lockdown" to DORSCON red -- for some vulnerable group - eg. pre-existing respiratory condition or health problem (without pulling the rest of the country to impose "full lockdown" from DORSCO orange --- when the situation does not warrant it)
(1) Vulnerable people suffering from respiratory problem or health problem --- should be allowed to choose to operate on DORSCON red mode --- if they choose to.
a. They can self-lockdown at home --- and use online to order food and supply.
b. They can do online learning if they have children at home --- and suggest Government can get Schools to customise online learning for their children.
c. Those in self-lockdown can also work at home --- and business should help to facilitate such work-at-home for those self-imposed lockdown.
(2) This group can impose self-lockdown for assume 6 month to 1 year -- and Government, School and Business should help to ensure these group got the necessary support.
(3) By doing so, these vulnerable group can be protected with DORSCON red --- while the Nation can still operate with Dorscon Orange without the need to go on red --- when not required --- but still keep the Economy going.
---
Suma
[9:52 pm, 27/03/2020] : sorry carry on with Your Discussion
I am in no mood to do so
Take care
Blue and White Flag Guy
[2:20 pm, 27/03/2020] : Yet those Hong Kongers decided to continue protesting for a bit after the virus outbreak wow
Ron Ho
[2:24 pm, 27/03/2020] : Many good points. Adding... business should be compelled to have those staff who can WFH not come to the office
Leonard Lau
[2:24 pm, 27/03/2020] : Reach .. can you please feedback to relevant authorities that we need better enforcement for the social distancing rules . It is not observe in most places .
[2:29 pm, 27/03/2020] ☸️ Danny 心:
(1) However we will like to emphasize that :-
"There are more unlinked cases in Singapore like yesterday 13, today 14 worry me abit - as it may signify community spreading if not link to any current clusters or imported cases."
a. Will REACH able to update us everyday --- how did the unlinked cases go or resolved?
Is there a signal of wider community spreading?
b. Does those who install Tracetogether mobile apps help in expediting contact tracing?
c. Does the "Crowd mapping through mobile signals" help in expediting contact tracing?
d. Has the ramping up of Contact tracing teams --- manage to find the links of those "unlinked cases" --- to existing clusters or imported cases?
--- If we have updates to all the above ---- I think we can help to think of more solutions --- to arrest the "gap" from "Community Spreading".
Leonard Lau
[2:34 pm, 27/03/2020] :
Contact tracing is too time consuming especially infected tend to forget their activities .
Thus introducing and using trace together app hopes to ease issues however it is power draining .
One of the alternative way is to suggest everyone to write a small log of what they do on the daily basis which can be handy when one is infected .
Blue and White Flag guy
[2:40 pm, 27/03/2020] : Agreed. Also maybe more signage reminding people. Use the space for community banners. Make the message serious not comedy.
[2:40 pm, 27/03/2020] ☸️ Danny 心:
Crowd mapping through mobile signal can solve this.
Download all IMEI numbers from Telco base station in the vicinity.
Use AI big data to pull out the right data and present them in model.
Many AI trained people can do it. Matter of hours you can get the complete picture.
Leonard Lau
[2:43 pm, 27/03/2020] : It does not give you the exact location of the person also many other constraints .
Eg , if the infected is found in the toilet , does it means all the people in the toilet is related as a close contact?
[2:45 pm, 27/03/2020] ☸️ Danny 心:
True not foolproof.
But cover the majority.
Toilet will need cleaners to clean more frequently.
Timing of cleaning determine who in the vicinity likely contacted.
Leonard Lau
[2:48 pm, 27/03/2020] : You missed my point on the toilet example .
Anyway , I believe the authority is doing something similar with basestation poll but i can confirm it isn’t effective .
Blue and White Flag Guy
[2:49 pm, 27/03/2020] : Actually he didn't miss your point, he brought up another good point, the on-site (toilet) point
Both of you have IT background, put that to good use 😊
Leonard Lau
[2:51 pm, 27/03/2020] : Nope.. he missed my point on the toilet ..
Blue and White Flag Guy
[2:52 pm, 27/03/2020] : You see his third line, unlikely he missed your point completely
[2:52 pm, 27/03/2020] ☸️ Danny 心:
I am surprised if not effective because it is like tracetogether mobile apps with the time, duration and location.
Blue and White Flag Guy
[2:52 pm, 27/03/2020] : He saw your Target but went off tangent 🤣 did you offended him 🤭
[2:53 pm, 27/03/2020] : Armour deflect? 🤭
[2:53 pm, 27/03/2020] : Got blinders.. emotional blinders or sun glasses
[2:55 pm, 27/03/2020] ☸️ Danny 心: China and SKorea are also using base station techniques.
Leonard Lau
[2:56 pm, 27/03/2020] : Nothing to do with cleanliness .. my friend .
My example was ..
A base station will poll all the people using it . If users are in toilet , it will polled as well . What value does rhis data meant to the investigator ? If the infected stayed in the toilet for 30mins , does it mean the next cubicle is a contact ?
Contact tracers are already busy .. don’t provide them more irrelevant data for investigation.
[2:57 pm, 27/03/2020] ☸️ Danny 心:
No you are wrong.
Your handphone associated with any Base station that come close. No need to make call.
Leonard Lau
[2:58 pm, 27/03/2020] : I know ..
[2:59 pm, 27/03/2020] ☸️ Danny 心:
Data not irrelevant.
The Home Team is doing it currently.
Leonard Lau
[3:00 pm, 27/03/2020] : My data refer to the records of base-station is polling of imei ..
[3:03 pm, 27/03/2020] ☸️ Danny 心: When handphone associated with base station - IMEI recorded in a log.
Leonard Lau
[3:06 pm, 27/03/2020] : Yes log .. that is what I meant as the data .
[3:08 pm, 27/03/2020] ☸️ Danny 心: When contact tracers pull out all the IMEI records in the log - all those in the vicinity at that time, duration, location will be retrieved and contact tracing can start.
So why not effective?
Leonard Lau
[3:08 pm, 27/03/2020] +: But my question to you is the Imei details is the handphone more important or the SSN?
[3:09 pm, 27/03/2020] ☸️ Danny 心: Don't understand your question?
[3:10 pm, 27/03/2020] ☸️ Danny 心: IMEI is the unique number in the SIM card that identified the handphone user that sign the contract.
Blue and White Flag Guy
[3:10 pm, 27/03/2020] : IMEI or SSN
[3:10 pm, 27/03/2020] : SSN is SIM S/N, which is definitely tied to the person's NRIC
[3:11 pm, 27/03/2020] : I'm sure with your knowledge you already know what SSN is lah
[3:12 pm, 27/03/2020] : IMEI is the physical device's ID, macam MAC address like that, tied to the device itself de so in that sense, SSN is better than IMEI at tracing
[3:13 pm, 27/03/2020] ☸️ Danny 心: Good points. Both IMEI and ssn are used.
[3:15 pm, 27/03/2020] ☸️ Danny 心: I don't claim to know everything.
But the technology is there and my message is crowd mapping through mobile signal is effective.
Leonard Lau
[3:15 pm, 27/03/2020] : Imei is with the phone .. I buy a phone direct from HK , how would G knows my device ..
did u know that Imei can be fake ..
Please think deep .. Thanks
[3:16 pm, 27/03/2020] ☸️ Danny 心: IMEI and I miss the SSN.
SSN is log as well.
So is it effective?
Leonard Lau
[3:21 pm, 27/03/2020] : Not really helpful because the log cannot pinpoint distance and many other things .. that’s why trace together is a better app.
Use Bluetooth to poll distance and other important attributes . This will help to speed up investigation .
[3:36 pm, 27/03/2020] ☸️ Danny 心: GPS extender pinpoint exact location
[4:58 pm, 27/03/2020] ☸️ Danny 心:
GPS tell contact tracers which toilets a person go.
Tracetogether don't tell which toilets one goes. Got to ask them verbally if they remember.
Rama
[4:58 pm, 27/03/2020] : 😱😨😄☺️😊🙂
Jimmy Chew
[5:01 pm, 27/03/2020] : Hahaha 🤣👍
Desmond
[5:56 pm, 27/03/2020] : Don say I never give u chance to share your views to GovTech experts, go sign up and share your opinion, I hope u won’t get trashed because he is not as nice as us..
https://form.gov.sg/#!/5e7bfb7b34d8b200113b78c3
[6:28 pm, 27/03/2020] ☸️ Danny 心:
Do I need to prove to them who is better?
We analyse issue by logic and rational thinking.
And how do you know the reach participants background is not someone that may not be worst off.
[6:29 pm, 27/03/2020] ☸️ Danny 心: Govtech is the 4th generation.
[6:32 pm, 27/03/2020] ☸️ Danny 心: Some Reach participants could be their 祖师爷。
Desmond
[6:34 pm, 27/03/2020] : This is my only msg to you
See ah, we are all here to talk only, when u go there, u can ask why using Bluetooth and listen the rationale... so far only a few vocal ones talk, and the rest just listen, so ya while we debate on the rationale and logic, you and I might not know the helicopter view reasons why the execution are like that... not saying to prove but to give u an opportunity to ask the question?
Anyways everyone have a different thinking so I will let it be 😊
[6:38 pm, 27/03/2020] ☸️ Danny 心:
Like what I say you may not know some of the background of the REACH participants.
So down here all are equal. All go by logic and rational thinking.
Objective assessment.
Don't need to pull rank here.
Some maybe their Grandmaster you may not know.
Desmond
[6:49 pm, 27/03/2020] : Seems like u didn’t see the link?
just saying.... the forms are to seek volunteers to provide expertise to help solve COVID 19, so since we have a lot of crouching tiger, hidden dragon, please sign up and help for the common good 😊
https://form.gov.sg/#!/5e7bfb7b34d8b200113b78c3
[6:56 pm, 27/03/2020] ☸️ Danny 心:
That's is what I and my friend are doing in REACH.
Giving suggestions.
We can't be doing the run because we have things to do.
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