US delegation to Taiwan will look to ease tensions, observers say

Chris Dodd, a former US senator and friend of Joe Biden, arrived in Taipei on Wednesday for a three-day visit

Biden administration may use unofficial visit to ‘ask Taiwan to be more prudent in handling cross-strait relations’, island’s former foreign minister says

Chris Dodd, a former US senator and long-time friend of Joe Biden, is expected to relay the US president’s concerns over the security of the Taiwan Strait and his desire for Taipei and Beijing to refrain from taking provocative action, observers said.

Lawrence Chung

SCMP

Published: 6:00am, 15 Apr, 2021

----

1. To understand the underlying ongoing dispute between China-Taiwan, did some research about China and Taiwan.

2. China Constitution explicitly spell out People Republic of China as One China - where Taiwan is part of China. 

3. Taiwan Constitution implicitly implied Taiwan is Republic of China.

4. 1992 Consensus - both China and Taiwan explicitly agree that there is only one sovereign state - comprising mainland China and Taiwan.

5. Notice DPP Proclamation

a. Taiwan is a sovereign and independent country. Any change in the independent status quo must be decided by all the residence of Taiwan by means of plebiscite.

b. Taiwan is not a part of the People's Republic of China. China's unilateral advocacy of the "One China Principle" and "One Country Two Systems" is fundamentally inappropriate for Taiwan.

c. Taiwan should renounce the "One China" position to avoid international confusion and to prevent the position's use by China as a pretext for annexation by force.

6. DPP seems to contradict both the China Constitution as well as the Taiwan Constitution and refuse to accept the 1992 consensus. No wonder China so furious.

7. This is akin to Hawaii changing its constitution from United States of America to State of Hawaii - and declare independence. Will USA tolerate such secession?

8. But it will be disastrous if China do a full frontal invasion of Taiwan - because collateral damages will be huge. Also damages to World Economy by disrupting the $5 trillion trade sea lane is immense.

9. In addition, unexpected escalation into a regional war and even into a 3rd World War - may also be possible if other powers join in the fight.

-----

1. Hence peaceful reunification will still be the preferred choice.

2. For China to convince Taiwan to voluntarily and peacefully to re-unified --- China must develop and strengthen its "Heart Softpower".

3. Else if China successfully re-unified Taiwan forcibly eg.

a. By slowly tightening the screw.

b. Isolate Taiwan.

c. Economic and physical blockade.

d. or Full frontal invasion

---- The 23 million will still be ungovernable. At that time, will China able to sustain long-term guerilla warfare, or rule Taiwan like the way Japan rule China and South China Sea during World War 2?

4. Another possibility is other powers may join the fight with Taiwan ---- and these will have an unforseen repercussion - that will have a devastating impact on the World Economy, death and destruction - and may even trigger a 3rd World War or even a nuclear war --- if it goes out of control.

5. Why will other powers want to join the fight --- as this is a family matter?

a. SuperPower view  China as a up-and-coming Superpower that threaten its leadership position.

b. Some smaller powers view China as a growing power that is not so benign, not so friendly and sometimes hurting their interests.

6. Hence for China to successfully re-unified Taiwan (like Hawaii people vote to join USA willingly) and develop friendly relationship with other smaller powers and other neighboring Countries, China must :-

a. Develop and strengthen its "Heart Softpower" --- where other Countries find China a friendly SuperPower, able to attain mutual-benefits by working with China.

b. There may be a need to do a slow transformation into a "Democratic System" via Universal Suffrage within Communism --- to successfully integrate with the World not only economically, but also politically.

=======