REACH 255 - View on emergence of the COVID-19 clusters at KTV lounges and Jurong Fishery Port (SK)
18 July 2021 (10am - 7pm)
REACH
[7:31 pm, 18/07/2021] +REACH: Dear contributors,
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[7:32 pm, 18/07/2021] +REACH: 📢 Topic 📢
Singapore reported 88 new locally transmitted COVID-19 cases as of noon today (18 Jul). This includes 23 new cases linked to the growing cluster involving KTV outlets and nightclubs, bringing the total number of cases in this cluster to 172. At the same time, 37 of the cases today were linked to the Jurong Fishery Port cluster.
What are your thoughts on the emergence of the COVID-19 clusters at KTV lounges and Jurong Fishery Port? What are your views on the steps that the Government has taken to curb further COVID-19 transmission?
In MOH’s daily update on 17 Jul, MOH noted that COVID-19 cases have been detected among fishmongers working at 13 markets across Singapore. To prevent further transmission in the light of the Jurong Fishery Port cluster, MOH and National Environment Agency (NEA) announced this morning that all stallholders selling fresh fish and seafood at markets managed by NEA or operators appointed by the agency were not allowed to open their shops until they obtain a negative PCR test result.
The Singapore Police Force (SPF) has also further stepped up checks and enforcement against vice and other illegal activities, following the emergence of the KTV cluster. During the police operation conducted yesterday, a total of 39 people were found socialising in illegal entertainment outlets. Of which, 36 are being investigated for not complying with safe distancing rules. SPF said that the Police takes a stern view of irresponsible behaviour relating to the flouting of safe distancing measures, and offenders will be dealt with in accordance to the law.
In a FB post, PM Lee Hsien Loong also noted that the recent large clusters of COVID-19 cases from KTV lounges and Jurong Fishery Port are a reminder of the need to get everyone vaccinated. This is especially so for seniors who can become seriously ill if infected.
👉 https://str.sg/33Tq
👉 https://str.sg/33Sz
👉 https://str.sg/33wd
👉 https://str.sg/33Sc
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[7:35 pm, 18/07/2021] +Caleb: Good measure was being made
[7:37 pm, 18/07/2021] +Caleb: Can cancel NDP fireworks and airplane
[7:37 pm, 18/07/2021] +Caleb: So many ppl
[7:37 pm, 18/07/2021] +Caleb: Don't want later another NDP cluster
[7:37 pm, 18/07/2021] +Caleb: Only the fire hundred get to watch at the floating platform.
No need all these
[7:37 pm, 18/07/2021] +Caleb: Give more fireworks at heartland la
[7:38 pm, 18/07/2021] +Caleb: *few hundred
[7:39 pm, 18/07/2021] ☸️ Danny 心:
1. When mass vaccination has not reached herd immunity > 80%.
2. And then people not wearing masks, not maintaining social distancing interact - this will be the disastrous effect.
[7:40 pm, 18/07/2021] ☸️ Danny 心: https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/world/france-should-consider-mandatory-covid-19-vaccine-shots-for-15235186 France consider MANDATORY covid-19 vaccination for public.
[7:40 pm, 18/07/2021] ☸️ Danny 心:
France is considering Mandatory Vaccination for the public - to curb the rampant Delta variants.
[7:48 pm, 18/07/2021] ☸️ Danny 心:
Only 6 out of 88 KTV cluster fully vaccinated.
https://www.straitstimes.com/singapore/only-6-of-first-88-cases-in-ktv-covid-19-cluster-fully-vaccinated-patrons-included-19-year
[7:51 pm, 18/07/2021] ☸️ Danny 心:
https://www.straitstimes.com/world/united-states/after-a-steep-plunge-in-covid-19-cases-us-states-are-seeing-an-uptick US states see a steep plunge, now uptick in covid.
[7:51 pm, 18/07/2021] ☸️ Danny 心: https://www.straitstimes.com/world/europe/uk-warns-covid-19-curbs-may-return-if-cases-get-out-of-control UK PM warn curbs may return - if covid get out of control.
[7:51 pm, 18/07/2021] ☸️ Danny 心:
https://www.straitstimes.com/asia/se-asia/delta-covid-19-variant-engulfs-south-east-asia-with-worlds-fastest-growing-deaths Fatal error for countries to loosen restriction - when Delta variants spread like wildfire - without high vaccination rate.
[7:56 pm, 18/07/2021] +Ken Loh: Agree
[7:56 pm, 18/07/2021] +Ken Loh: Close contact increase chance by many times over
[7:58 pm, 18/07/2021] ☸️ Danny 心:
1. Now when people don't use safeentry and tracetogether in KTV - is test, trace and ring-fence effective?
2. We don't know how this butterfly effect spread - to be able to ring-fence the close contact.
3. And if infection run everywhere out of control - possibly roll-back lockdown maybe necessary again.
4. Else can't think of anyway to control this KTV wave.
5. When Delta variants wave go to single digit and even zero - thought we have control the Delta wave already.
6. Now this KTV wave throw everything out of the window.
[8:00 pm, 18/07/2021] +Ken Loh: KTV cluster happen to many countries… so far not really a good way…
As they tend to less likely to use TraceTogether. Off the grid as they likely illegal.
Many close contact and no fixed location to stay. Flushing them out they will just hide and we have more cryptic cases.
[8:02 pm, 18/07/2021] +Dong Liang: More people will be charged in court as those potential cases likely don't want to declare they have visited ktv.
[8:02 pm, 18/07/2021] +Ken Loh: There are ways but don’t think people will like it like cell tower tracing in the area.
As well as camera using AI to track and trace their location where they stay. Too scary for anyone to commission such usage.
[8:05 pm, 18/07/2021] ☸️ Danny 心:
1. If mass vaccination don't reach herd immunity >80% - any suggestions of endemic is fatal.
2. This KTV cluster demonstrate this.
3. Give the covid half chance - they will strike.
4. Public health policy must correspond to math and science.
5. R0 transmission model say Delta variants is 8 - it means >80% must get full Vaccination.
6. If future variants is more than 10, it means 100% vaccination is required.
7. This is math and science.
8. The virus will behave like what math and science tell them to.
9. So to defeat this covid pandemic - mass vaccination must ramp up to what the transmission model say - only then we talk about endemic.
10. I propose 100% vaccination to be fool proof - and if mandatory vaccination is required, we may have to enforce.
[8:08 pm, 18/07/2021] ☸️ Danny 心:
In South Korea, whereby nightclub outbreak occur - nobody want to come forward because nobody want to be identified.
Authorities had to resort to combing through mobile phone data, credit card statements and CCTV footage to identify nearly 2,000 people who were not contactable.
[8:08 pm, 18/07/2021] ☸️ Danny 心:
Singapore to ring-fence this KTV cluster - may have to resort to similar techniques to contact trace close contact - before it spread out of control to the large community.
By:-
1. Comb mobile phone data
2. CCTV footage
3. Credit card statements
4. Tracetogether data for those that carry them.
Without water tight contact tracing - it will not be possible to effectively ring-fence.
And it may spread to the community in every corner stealthily.
[8:08 pm, 18/07/2021] ☸️ Danny 心:
Singapore will have to adopt the same technique similar to zero day attack - when we first detected our 1st covid case.
[8:11 pm, 18/07/2021] ☸️ Danny 心:
If government enforce diphtheria and small pox mandatory vaccination - wonder why we not enforce Mandatory vaccination for covid?
[8:14 pm, 18/07/2021] +REACH: Jurong Fishery Port closure: S'pore has activated other supply routes, says Grace Fu
The nation has swiftly switched to alternative supply routes after a Covid-19 cluster broke out at Jurong Fishery Port, said Minister for Sustainability and the Environment Grace Fu on Sunday (July 18).
More: https://str.sg/33TQ
[8:16 pm, 18/07/2021] +CQ: Whilst MTF has revised the daily case reporting format previously, given the latest emergence of a new wave of outbreak, I would suggest that the previous information provided relating to locations visited by confirmed cases be reinstated. This would make it easier for us to know which locations are likely to be closed for a couple of days (since only the places which will be closed for a prolonged period are reported currently). This will make it easier for people to plan their day, whether they can go to a certain place or they need to go elsewhere. Not in the sense of avoiding the whole mall, but more to prevent a wasted trip of reaching the place only to find out that it's closed.
[8:17 pm, 18/07/2021] +Alvin Lim: Agreed and seconded
[8:18 pm, 18/07/2021] +Ken Loh: Cause not enough data..
[8:28 pm, 18/07/2021] +YT: As I have mentioned in past few days... "spas" will be the next big cluster. REACH, please, please, feedback to the government on this before it's too late.
[8:30 pm, 18/07/2021] +Elena Woo: Wah... so the origin still from ktv cluster? So how many unlinked cases are actually stem from these clusters? Or get all men to go for swab test coz such places may not properly implement trace together coz they are illegal.
[8:31 pm, 18/07/2021] ☸️ Danny 心:
My friend comments:-
I see this as an opportunity to push for people to bring forward their vaccinations.
The past 7 days vaccination looked below capacity. If this is the trend for next few weeks, then strongly encourage people to bring forward their appointments.
For those isolated and quarantined, once their confinement period is over and they have not been vaccinated, strongly encourage them to do so. Strike while iron is hot.
[8:31 pm, 18/07/2021] +Alvin Lim: Is this confirm or rumour? I’ve heard the cruise ship cluster also link to ktv cases.
[8:32 pm, 18/07/2021] +Ben: I don't think they are illegal and we should be careful not to convict without any evidence being presented. Witch hunt is very ugly and becomes Mob rule.
[8:33 pm, 18/07/2021] +Elena Woo: Dirty massage confirm illegal ba?
[8:34 pm, 18/07/2021] +Ben: I'm just saying, let's not become vigilante and let the law investigate and present evidence. Everyone is jumping to conclusions.
[8:34 pm, 18/07/2021] ☸️ Danny 心: https://www.straitstimes.com/singapore/health/41-new-covid-19-cases-in-spore-linked-to-ktv-cluster-including-passenger-on-dream
42 new Covid-19 cases in S'pore linked to KTV cluster, including passenger on Dream Cruises ship
[8:35 pm, 18/07/2021] ☸️ Danny 心:
Dream cruise link to KTV cluster.
[8:36 pm, 18/07/2021] +YT: As long as there are sympathetic people like this, we won't ever be able to hold people responsible for their irresponsible behaviour.
[8:37 pm, 18/07/2021] ☸️ Danny 心:
KTV cluster champion.
Bring our nation Economy down.
[8:43 pm, 18/07/2021] +YT: Before any one even think about speaking up for these KTVs and dirty spas, please think about the harm they have done to undo the good work we as a nation have done in keeping Covid-19 at bay. Think about the public resources that now have to be expended to trace, test, treat, all these patients. Think about the fact that someone may just die from it. Someone who did not visit these places but just happened to be infected by an irresponsible person who did. So, before any one even think this is a witch hunt, use your brains to think first. Don't act so noble and magnanimous to try and be the reasonable guy. The reasonable thing to do is to condemn such behaviour, encourage personal responsibility, and stand united in the fight against the common enemy that is Covid-19.
[8:47 pm, 18/07/2021] +Peter T Ng: Think it's steady as she goes for now, while we think further of the criminal persecution of reckless parties and patrons
[8:49 pm, 18/07/2021] +Dan: I understand the angst. Yet, we must not discriminate against the Vietnamese ladies in Singapore. The recent case where the Vietnamese manager who was picked up by the taxi driver is an example. We have to steer away from mob mentality.
[8:50 pm, 18/07/2021] +Caleb: NDP...
[8:50 pm, 18/07/2021] +Caleb: Where the SDAs?
[8:50 pm, 18/07/2021] +YT: Agree. Xenophobia won't do us any good. There many foreign ladies in the market near my home who are here to do legitimate work to support their families. Not all are here to earn a quick buck.
[8:51 pm, 18/07/2021] +YT: Busy watching the rehearsal too...
[8:53 pm, 18/07/2021] +Ben: Like who, people who say the law must be followed? That's what I'm saying.
[8:54 pm, 18/07/2021] +Ben: Was this the same reaction last year when ICA put unvaccinated person on front line duty?
[8:55 pm, 18/07/2021] +Ben: Yes exactly. I think we are all agreeing this must be dealt with properly, but the language is becoming unwelcome and personal.
[8:56 pm, 18/07/2021] +Ben: 🤦♂️
[8:57 pm, 18/07/2021] +Rama: 😱😨
[8:58 pm, 18/07/2021] +YT: Do these people and operators follow the law in the first place? So, I don't get why they now must get sympathy. Is this going to become one of those "government bullying common people" kind of strawman argument?
[8:58 pm, 18/07/2021] +Ben: I don't think so no. I don't know what
[8:59 pm, 18/07/2021] +Ben: ''these people and operators' do, but everyone has a right to be heard before being judged, right?
[9:00 pm, 18/07/2021] +Ben: If someone has covid and their job puts them in close contact with another, is it their fault? No. If they didn't have regular testing, or went to work feeling unwell, then yes it is.
[9:00 pm, 18/07/2021] +YT: Er... in case you haven't been reading... I think the evidence is clear. No one needs to judge them. Every thinking adult knows.
[9:00 pm, 18/07/2021] +Ben: We saw cases of a teacher who works with kids who went to work feeling unwell and transmitted the virus.
[9:01 pm, 18/07/2021] +Ben: True, I'm making assumptions too, and am in little doubt. However, let's focus on the real problem, which is the spread of the virus.
[9:01 pm, 18/07/2021] +YT: Right from the start, people have been informed and told that if they are unwell, please see a doctor. So, if a person is unwell and yet insists on going around, then that person is irresponsible. It's as simple as that.
[9:01 pm, 18/07/2021] +Ben: If they broke social distancing rules, then yes they will pay the price.
[9:01 pm, 18/07/2021] +Ben: My point is that the law is there to do this, we don't need an angry mob.
[9:02 pm, 18/07/2021] +Ben: yes agreed, and we have seen many cases of that
[9:02 pm, 18/07/2021] +YT: Maybe they didn't break the social distancing rule. They were drinking one meter apart. No physical contact whatsoever. What do you think? Again, any thinking adult would know the answer.
[9:02 pm, 18/07/2021] +Ben: Whatever job she has, clearly it was popular.
[9:03 pm, 18/07/2021] +Caleb: Please don't come out with additional measure. When this was not being addressed
[9:03 pm, 18/07/2021] +Caleb: True ah. Got 1 in uniform. Lol
[9:03 pm, 18/07/2021] +YT: Is it? I need to zoom in closer. Hahaha...
[9:04 pm, 18/07/2021] +Caleb: Bottom right.
[9:04 pm, 18/07/2021] +Caleb: On the left
[9:04 pm, 18/07/2021] +Ben: Actually I don't know what her job is, but I saw a video that suggest she performs sex acts. Clearly any man that things this is a good idea during a pandemic is pretty stupid. Our anger should maybe targeted at them more than the lady.
[9:16 pm, 18/07/2021] +65 9296 7168: I hope G has measures for people active on sugar daddy apps. Some of them are still very active and there might be new clusters due to the "butterfly" effect??😥
[9:25 pm, 18/07/2021] +Ben: 65% in 3 weeks will require 1m more 2nd doses. That's 50,000 per day. Achievable!
[9:25 pm, 18/07/2021] ☸️ Danny 心:
1 jab is barely moving - for the past few days is 71%.
Only today is 72%.
Like that how to reach 80% herd immunity?
[9:25 pm, 18/07/2021] +Alvin Lim: seems like not moving wor
[9:26 pm, 18/07/2021] +Alvin Lim: someone here say we will have majority of 51% by June someone
[9:26 pm, 18/07/2021] +Alvin Lim: *somemore
[9:26 pm, 18/07/2021] +Alvin Lim: lol
[9:27 pm, 18/07/2021] ☸️ Danny 心:
The key thing is, not enough people registering for vaccination.
Many vaccination center still not operating in maximum capacity.
[9:29 pm, 18/07/2021] +Timothy Low: Time to dish out the ultimatum: unless got valid medical reason, those not vaccinated are not allowed to dine outside
[9:29 pm, 18/07/2021] ☸️ Danny 心:
Mumps and measles - 100% population vaccination.
Delta variants is R0 = 8 - we need >80% vaccination.
If future variants R0 > 10, then our population vaccination need to be 100%.
Only mandatory vaccination can achieve this.
[9:32 pm, 18/07/2021] ☸️ Danny 心:
Because mumps and measles R0 > 10.
Thus 100% population vaccination is essential.
[9:34 pm, 18/07/2021] +Joseph Ong: Nobody said anything about sympathy for these law breakers.
The G is doing the smart thing by focusing on identifying and ring fencing the infected people first.
If you start talking about punishments and making these people pay a heavy price etc etc, most of these people will literally go into hiding and we will have a more difficult time containing the outbreak.
[9:39 pm, 18/07/2021] +Ken Loh: 🤦🏻♂️
[9:40 pm, 18/07/2021] +Elena Woo: I doubt the ring fence work effectively now...
[9:41 pm, 18/07/2021] +Joseph Ong: Yes. it’s that simple.. as far as determining whether the person was wrong.
More complicated, is deciding what action to take against the guilty ones without sending a signal to others that they are better off taking the chance by going into hiding especially since our priority is to be able to quickly identify and ring-fence the infected.
[9:43 pm, 18/07/2021] +Joseph Ong: We have no other choice do we? It’s a choice between bad and very bad outcomes. Now is not the time to debate about what these people shouldn’t have been allowed to do. We can and will do that AFTER we are successful in quashing the current outbreak.
[9:43 pm, 18/07/2021] +Joseph Ong: quashing the current outbreak.
[9:46 pm, 18/07/2021] +REACH: Dear Contributors,
⏰ We will be closing the chat in 15 minutes ⏰
Thank you very much for being part of our WhatsApp chat and participating actively.
Goodnight!
Megan
[9:54 pm, 18/07/2021] +Alvin Lim: Gdnite Megan
[9:57 pm, 18/07/2021] +Smiley face: TO: Distinguished MTF and All Honorable Members
The Fixed, The Variables and The Catch-22!
The fast evolving event the 72 hours had brought us to a converging of mutually exclusive clusters and possibly multiplication of cases. At the different momentum, both clusters relate back to the basic, this case our HOMES!
The fixed:
Jurong fishery port is a seaport of entry. Neighbouring fish trawlers from Indonesia, Malaysia and other further Asean fishing boats make daily callings to our fish port.
Human to human contacts are inevitable, one consolation is the surrounding is OPEN air!
RELOOK ways to improve WORK FLOW from the alongside of trawlers, repacking, distributions to the wet markets. Protective gears, safe distancing and physical human contacts are part of this DAILY "PASSING PARCELS" game!
The Variables:
KTV and nite lifes are extreme human to human contacts in an ENCLOSED and COSY environment. Regardless of all safety protocols, it is simply HELPLESS!
To quantify things, the high mobility and high activities of all spectrum that led to a high TURNOVERS of patrons given a 30 days period. These excitable venues further add to the rate of INFECTION in multiples and a natural sweet spot for SUPERSPREADING!
The Catch-22:
Both clusters CONVERGE into our heartlands! Time is of the essence, the next SEVEN DAYS is critical to SURPRESS EITHER one OR best both clusters from further gaining footings into our HOMES!
To predict the outcome of cases for the two situations, one can conclude that the BIGGER harm lies in the KTV cluster. Simply, the foreign seamen, the fish port workers and the chain of wet markets fishmongers are FINITE and contact tracing will be easier in IDENTIFYING infectious individuals and swifter in containing it!
Summary:
The next seven days a high probability of up to 400 or more cases may be identified with most cases from the KTV cluster than the fishing cluster!
Perhaps, HBL, letting the school REST for the next 5 days will be a prudent idea. After all, the "work from home" rule will start July 19!
Simply, let the contact tracing roll in high gear and the natural order of individuals to SURFACE either through swabs, self testings or reporting sick at the clinic level. A multi streams of safety net cast to find the infected ones, importantly AHEAD OF THE CURVE - - the values are TIMING x IDENTIFY!
"being inquisitive don't always kiil the cat..."
-- Ian T
"The devils always hiding within and along the processing lines ... "
-- Ian T
[9:59 pm, 18/07/2021] +REACH: Dear Contributors,
We will be closing the chat for today.
Thank you very much for being part of our WhatsApp chat and participating actively.
Goodnight!
Megan 😊
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