Tuesday, May 2, 2017


ricky l

China's military pact with N.Korea looks shaky

China's nationalistic Global Times newspaper invoked two scenarios, including one in which Beijing would refrain from defending Pyongyang.
"If North Korea continues to carry out severe missile tests, and the United States launches a surgical attack on its facilities, Beijing should impose a diplomatic boycott, but there is no necessity of military intervention," said an op-ed published in the Global Times last month.
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This show that if N Korea go down the path of nuclear tests or ICBMs - China will not protect N Korea if US carry out surgical strike on N Korea nuclear sites and ICBMs capabilities.
So it is very clear that no one will protect N Korea - if N Korea go down the path of nuclearisation and ICBMs.
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But the daily said China "should immediately carry out necessary military intervention" if the US and South Korea launch a ground invasion in the North to overthrow the regime.
While Beijing's commitment to the pact is in question, it remains sensitive to US military movements in the region.
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Conversely, China and even Russia will have geopolitical interest to create a buffer zone for themselves versus S Korea which is on US side - to ensure that their border interest are not compromised.

Coming to fact, N Korea will feel that the 3 SuperPowers have their own self-interest - make at the expense of N Korea.
As a result, it harden N Korea resolve to develop nulcear amd ICBMs.
Going by this logic, N Korea is not relenting on its pursuit of nulcear amd ICBMs.
And this will mean that diplomatic resolution and dialogue will be quite remote to resolve the nuclear crisis.
It will need a miracle for N Korea to change their mind to do denuclearise talk in exchange for peace and prosperity.

This mean that the end result will still be US will do surgical strike on N Korea nuclear and missile sites (Death trap door 死门) ---- unless miracle happens -- ie. N Korea change its mind for denuclearise talk (Life door 生门).

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