REACH 277 - What are your views on the recent tightening of restrictions to slow the exponential rise in COVID-19 cases, while protecting the capacity of Singapore's healthcare system? What can we do as a community to break the chain of transmission? (SK)
27 Sep 2021 (10am - 7pm)
REACH
[9:53 am, 27/09/2021] +REACH: Dear contributors,
Welcome back! ๐
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Megan ๐
[10:00 am, 27/09/2021] +REACH: ๐ข Topic ๐ข
From today (Sep 27), people will only be allowed to gather in groups of two and work from home will be the default for employees who can do so. These measures will last a month until Oct 25, with measures reviewed in two weeks and adjusted depending on the community situation. Home-based learning, which also starts today, will be extended by a day to Oct 7 for all primary and special education schools. Quarantined students will be allowed to take their national examinations this year if they wish to, subject to stringent criteria.
๐ฌ What are your views on the recent tightening of restrictions to slow the exponential rise in COVID-19 cases, while protecting the capacity of Singapore's healthcare system? What can we do as a community to break the chain of transmission?
By tightening restrictions now, Singapore is essentially "tapping the brakes" to slow the surge in Covid-19 cases here, said Health Minister Ong Ye Kung during a press conference by the COVID-19 multi-ministry taskforce on Friday (Sept 24). The tighter restrictions is needed to ensure that the healthcare system can cope with the ongoing surge in cases, and to allow new healthcare protocols to stabilise, said Finance Minister Lawrence Wong, who also co-chairs the taskforce.
During the press conference, Mr Ong outlined how the current tightened measures fit into Singapore's four-stage process to treating the virus as endemic. As part of the first, preparatory stage, Singapore began ramping up capacity to cope with an expected surge in cases. While the level of activity has fallen over the past few weeks following a call earlier this month for everyone in Singapore to scale back their activities and slow the transmission of Covid-19, the community transmission of the Delta variant has driven up daily cases much more quickly than expected - before the ramped-up plans are fully implemented and before support systems are fully in place.
From Oct 4, people aged between 50 to 59 will be invited to take their Covid-19 vaccine booster shots. They will join those aged 60 and above and residents of aged care facilities, who started their booster regime from Sep 15.
๐ https://www.straitstimes.com/singapore/health/dining-in-capped-at-two-wfh-the-default-among-6-key-changes-as-spore-tightens-covid
๐ https://www.straitstimes.com/singapore/health/singapore-is-tapping-the-brakes-to-slow-the-surge-in-covid-19-cases-ong-ye-kung
๐ https://www.straitstimes.com/singapore/reopening-to-resume-once-new-covid-19-healthcare-protocols-stabilise-lawrence-wong
๐ https://www.straitstimes.com/singapore/changes-to-covid-19-rules-can-be-confusing-and-unsettling-but-will-buy-spore-time-to-roll
๐ https://www.straitstimes.com/singapore/students-on-quarantine-or-approved-covid-19-absence-may-still-take-psle-national-exams-moe
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[10:11 am, 27/09/2021] +Peter T Ng: Truly whole-of-nation effort to make this restriction work, and to minimise successive brakings.
Everyone needs to adjust and make sacrifices socially and be responsible for testing, isolating self.
Perhaps this exercise will be good roadmap including regulations post Covid for infectious diseases eg flu, chickenpox and HFMD, to minimise impact on society.
We also need to level up sanitisation standards and protocols for cleaning staff everywhere
[10:14 am, 27/09/2021] +Ah Heng: 1) Totally very happy to clamp down
[10:15 am, 27/09/2021] +Ah Heng: 2) Residents of Singapore have to WAKE UP and know this is NOT a lock down, rather is a restricted movement else why are people allow to go out and about. Also this is a results of a few % who refuse to corporate with the personnel safety measures that results in this explosion
[10:15 am, 27/09/2021] +John Cheong: Disappointed that MOH did not ramp up in advance since Delta surge is expected looking at trends in Israel... But understandable given the fast changing environment.
[10:16 am, 27/09/2021] +Ah Heng: 3) Maybe the authorities should clmap down on the personnel exercise sector ... is a fact many people are ABUSING the system by using brisk walking, jogging, cycling in cluster and mask off
[10:16 am, 27/09/2021] +John Cheong: Wish MOH to leave more room for individual responsibility and discretion. Blanket restrictions causes much disruption to many individuals and businesses.
[10:17 am, 27/09/2021] +Jess Sunga: What it means if quarantined student, who pass the stringent criteria, do not take their national exam this year ? Will they be like skipping a year and should still take the exam next year?
[10:17 am, 27/09/2021] +Ah Heng: 4) Business have to start to grow up and stop depending on Govt for hand out ... coming to 24mths and still crying always and expecting handout. yes business suffer BUT WHO CAUSES the suffering -> SOCIETY not GOVT
[10:18 am, 27/09/2021] +Ah Heng: is there not an alternative for p6 students to use their prelim results?
[10:18 am, 27/09/2021] +Ah Heng: o levels or n level believe will have arrangement as well
[10:20 am, 27/09/2021] +Ah Heng: Resident of singapore have to understand such national health program is not only govt effort, majority comes from us the society to make it a success....if till now society still do not understand, it only shows how crackup the local society with individual agenda ......
[10:22 am, 27/09/2021] +Valli: People are just becoming complacent & irresponsible. Not taking it seriously.
Yesterday saw big groupings ๐คฆ๐ป♀️
[10:30 am, 27/09/2021] +Suma pamu: Not Exactly prelims
But They will be Given grades based on Prelims plus Previous Exams Gardes
All they consider and give the Psle scores
(For those who missed exam with valid reasons)
[11:36 am, 27/09/2021] +REACH: Dear Contributors,
We want to HEAR MORE from you!
We have had good feedback from this group, and we hope that we can keep the discussion robust and active!
Megan ๐
[11:41 am, 27/09/2021] +Ken Loh: Yes this I agree… we can’t support forever, if they can’t survive can’t expect government to support them constantly.
Business has to adapt to survive not hopping for grant always.
[11:42 am, 27/09/2021] +Ken Loh: Supporting business that can’t survive after 2 years of help, there is a limit to how much we should help.
If not business will just depend on government for hand out
[11:52 am, 27/09/2021] +Adrian: 1) understand the need to do so to prevent overwhelming of healthcare facilities, but I do hope the government does a bit more forward planning this time. If we were to truly treat it as an endemic, ~1000+ cases should be "expected". Even after we loosen again, cases will surely continue to rise up again. If hospitalisation facilities is the limiting factor, even if we increase capacity it will just be a matter of time before the exponential increase catches up with capacity, then will kena tighten again. We need to find an equilibrium to avoid the back-and-forth between tightening and restricting
2) based on data, should determine which measure has the biggest impact. for example, if after we implement WFH + HBL + 2 pax social gatherings, case numbers go down, we should study which measure had the biggest impact. For eg, if work places are the issue, we can maintain WFH but allow 5 pax social gatherings, vice versa. We need a data driven approach in a transparent manner, and not one where it seems the govt just tightens measures in a blanket manner when cases increase.
3) agree on the need for businesses to adapt (though easier said than done).
[11:55 am, 27/09/2021] +Adrian: 4) for booster shots, are the rise in cases among the vaccinated due to waning protection for vaccinated individuals, or just due to transmissibility of the delta variant? Will booster shots really help? I'm not entirely convinced at the moment.
Do we have data to show that those vaccinated who got infected have lower antibodies count? If no, perhaps boosters might not be that effective. Think we should focus our efforts on (1) reaching out to the unvaccinated, and (2) reviewing the safety to vaccinate our young children (the only group yet to be eligible for vaccination)
[0:56 pm, 27/09/2021] +RH: Agree.
R booster shots really necessary?
Wher is the data to support tt antibodies r insufficient after 6 months , to fight the disease?
How many or wat is the percentage of those who were infected / died, aged 60 & abv have low antibody count?
R we targeting the wrong area? From wat I hv bn reading, it is the quality tt is impt, not the quantity.
And can we take a diff type of booster, such as non-mRna type for booster, instead of the earlier brands?
6 months gap fr 2nd dose seems rather quick ... My frens ard me who had their 2nd shot in April this year hv bn invited to take their booster.
But the jury is still out on whether or not the booster shot truly nec.
I feel as if the gov is beginning to grasp at straws,
drawing on any available fix-it ideas from other countries.
Thus far, the gov has bn keeping a steady head .
Now is not the time to grasp at straws.
Time is wat we need to stay the course.
However, the virus doesn't care.
Meanwhile, we hv no choice but to tighten restrictions.
Yes, ther r many socially irresponsible ppl out ther.
I hv been seeing many on the streets without masks, not wearing them properly, taking risks at being exposed by staying out for long time in crowded areas (with their children), and even ppl whom I know hv irresponsible family members - like an elderly grandfather who has flu symptoms and dismisses it as such but doesn't see doc, doesn't care to do testing, doesn't let outsiders / visitors know.
Now, other family members r sniffling and snuffling in the house but all think it's ok not to alert visitors of their situation!
So ther, even closer to home, u hv irresponsible behaviour! ๐
[1:01 pm, 27/09/2021] +RH: The gov shd continue in its efforts to convince the un-vaccinated & keep review of vaccination for the young.
A review of booster shots shd be done - is 6 months too early?
Wat happens after the 3rd shot...?
Another 'booster' in another 6 months?
Wat are we saying now?
Is CoVid gg the way of the flu?
Let's not go overboard in our zeal to get everyone protected.
Stay the course and keep focussed.
[1:02 pm, 27/09/2021] +Caleb: Gov shld encourage all to take charger of their own personal hygiene. Hand washing ect
[1:13 pm, 27/09/2021] +Adrian: Yeah, would be good if govt can share data on when was the vaccination date for vaccinated individuals who contracted covid.
For example, if out of 1000 vaccinated individuals who kena, 70% got their shots >6 months ago, 20% 5 months ago, 10% 4 months ago and none within 3 months of being vaccinated, this might show that covid immunity wanes over time and reinforce the need for booster shots.
However, if data shows that even those who were recently vaccinated are also contracting covid, then I would question the need for booster shots. (Unless of course it's about mixing vaccines to offer a different type of immunity)
[1:13 pm, 27/09/2021] +Adrian: Two cents worth ๐๐ป
[1:26 pm, 27/09/2021] +Jospeh Ong: While the current outbreak is a setback, i hope MOH will not waste the opportunity to do a detailed study to understand CV19 better.
This is an opportunity to collate data on:
- Vaccine efficacy/lifespan
- Any evidence of vaccine effectiveness in preventing long covid
- Immunity post infection for recovered patients who were previously vaccinated
- Potential implications of “super-immunity” or “hybrid immunity”
[1:28 pm, 27/09/2021] +REACH: 160,000 eligible Singaporeans to receive $100 worth of grocery vouchers
About 160,000 eligible Singaporeans will receive $100 worth of grocery vouchers next month to support them with their household expenses amid the Covid-19 pandemic.
More: https://str.sg/3TdN
[1:29 pm, 27/09/2021] +REACH: Wage support for aviation sector to be extended to March 2022
Employers in the aviation sector will get six more months of wage support for their workers to help them tide over the continuing Covid-19 pandemic.
More: https://str.sg/3Td6
[1:45 pm, 27/09/2021] +Ben: What is the goal right now? We were told that vaccination was the key to opening up. We did that and we are now back to earlier restrictions.
[1:45 pm, 27/09/2021] +RH: +1
[1:45 pm, 27/09/2021] +Ben: Where is the evidence that these restrictions are achieving the goal ( whatever that is?)
[1:46 pm, 27/09/2021] +Caleb: For MOH to ramp up their operations and elderly to get their booster shots
[1:46 pm, 27/09/2021] +Ben: And also which vaccination.
[1:46 pm, 27/09/2021] +Ben: I mean what is the purpose? Eg No one in hospital. Under 10 cars a day?
[1:47 pm, 27/09/2021] +Ben: The elderly didn't all get their 1st shot. How many need a booster to allow us open up?
[1:47 pm, 27/09/2021] +Caleb: So that MOH can handle these large cases lor
[1:47 pm, 27/09/2021] +Ben: Where is the evidence a booster is needed for everyone
[1:47 pm, 27/09/2021] +Ben: What is the actual goal? How do your define ' handle' large cases
[1:48 pm, 27/09/2021] +RH: I dun think getting booster shots is the way to go.
Like I said, after 6 months, wat next? Not another booster shot, pls!
That is just buying time. Not a solution.
[1:48 pm, 27/09/2021] +Ben: How are other countries dealing with 30,000 cases a day?
[1:48 pm, 27/09/2021] +Ben: https://www.bbc.com/news/health-57766717
[1:48 pm, 27/09/2021] +Ben: I find a study that has data about covid and children.
[1:49 pm, 27/09/2021] +Ben: I don't want my kid to get covid, but I also see that his childhood is being seriouly compromised unnecessarily
[1:49 pm, 27/09/2021] +RH: I hate to say this,
But looks like little choice liao....
Shd continue to focus on getting the un-vaccinated Vaccinated... ๐ณ
I dun see nor hear tt call tt strongly any more of late.
[1:51 pm, 27/09/2021] +Ben: How is that the countries in Europe are coping with no restrictions other than wearing masks indoor?
[1:51 pm, 27/09/2021] +Ben: Numbers are falling.
[1:51 pm, 27/09/2021] +RH: If people's choice is for the non-mRna vaccine, so be it...
Bring more of it in, (and fast), so tt the remaining 18% can go get themselves vax...
[1:52 pm, 27/09/2021] +Ben: What is the condition of people that are overwhelming our hospitals?
[1:52 pm, 27/09/2021] +RH: Can speed up the delivery of Novavax?
End Nov seems too long now.
[1:52 pm, 27/09/2021] +Ben: We have 30 people in ICU in a population of 5 5million. How many can we manage?
[1:53 pm, 27/09/2021] +Ben: We have 172 seriously ill people in a population of 5 5 million. What can we cope with?
[1:53 pm, 27/09/2021] +Ben: Anyone know?
[1:53 pm, 27/09/2021] +Ben: How many children are seriously ill from covid?
[1:54 pm, 27/09/2021] +Caleb: The A&Es are full I think.
[1:54 pm, 27/09/2021] +Ben: 6 in 1 million are on ICU seems like a really low number
[1:55 pm, 27/09/2021] +Caleb: GPs and polyclinics too
[1:55 pm, 27/09/2021] +Ben: Yes, but why? If people are not seriously ill
[1:55 pm, 27/09/2021] +Ben: Is the plan not to stay home, like in other countries.?
[1:55 pm, 27/09/2021] +Caleb: And Gov want to QO all the close contact ect. And do contact tracing
[1:56 pm, 27/09/2021] +Ben: Why not setup facilities at expo again so people can go and rest there?
[1:56 pm, 27/09/2021] +Caleb: Think empty hotels will be staring at Expo.
[1:57 pm, 27/09/2021] +Ken Loh: They removed the QO number from MOH website is it? Cannot find anymore
[1:57 pm, 27/09/2021] +Caleb: Think they can't count already
[1:57 pm, 27/09/2021] +Ben: Maybe we are being too cautious? I worry we are sitting down businesses and killing our economy for a tiny number of cases. 35 in a million people are seriously ill, and our country cannot cope?
[1:58 pm, 27/09/2021] +Ben: Why are we allowing people to go to a&e when they test positive?
[1:58 pm, 27/09/2021] +Ben: That isn't the right place for them
[1:58 pm, 27/09/2021] +Ben: Is not an emergency and there was no accident.
[1:59 pm, 27/09/2021] +Ben: What steps are being taken to open up properly, protect our business our jobs our society?
[1:59 pm, 27/09/2021] +Ben: Why is our only measure to reintroduce restrictions?
[2:00 pm, 27/09/2021] +Ben: What is the point of track and trace right now? It is just focused on issuing QO and sending people to A&E. Perhaps, now that we are vaccinated,, people are not getting seriously ill so we can take a new approach?
[2:01 pm, 27/09/2021] +Ben: How much of the reserves are we willing to spend on maintaining this strategy?
[2:01 pm, 27/09/2021] +Ben: What is the cost to our mental health?
[2:02 pm, 27/09/2021] +Ben: How do we present ourselves as a competent forward thinking country when we only seem to have 1 strategy, which is to restrict movement and interaction?
[2:03 pm, 27/09/2021] +Ben: Why use up QO Hotel rooms for people who test negative when we have a shortage of space for those who test positive?
[2:04 pm, 27/09/2021] +Ben: So many questions. Are there are answers I wonder?
[2:05 pm, 27/09/2021] +Ben: HBL ends at 9.50. What do our kids do all day now? How can we be productive WFH with our kids at home needing attention?
[2:06 pm, 27/09/2021] +Angelica: I don’t agree with this continuous cycle of tightening and relaxing restrictions even with the increase in COVID cases. As 95%+ are all asymptomatic or just slightly unwell. And only very few are severely ill or needing hospitalisation.
The government keeps saying stand down for ‘X weeks’ so it can get better. But it’s not getting better. When cases go down, people and businesses suffer. Technically the government is also losing money since they are pumping more to support people but I think it’s still not enough to support like pre COVID times.
Wonder what’s the end goal?
Also the estimation that all seniors unvaccinated falling severely ill due to COVID and thus overwhelming hospital capacity seems does not seem realistic and overly precautious.
Also we are standing down so the remaining folks can get vaccinated? What’s next, until everyone gets their booster shot? It seems never ending.
I think people will suffer more from the restrictions first than covid if this continues.
[2:08 pm, 27/09/2021] +Ben: https://www.todayonline.com/singapore/explainer-where-singapore-stands-its-fight-against-covid-19-and-why-mindset-shift-needed
[2:09 pm, 27/09/2021] +Ben: Beyond government policies, however, infectious diseases experts say that there is a need for a mindset shift with regard to Covid-19, and a change in the messaging about how deadly the disease is.
There should also be more personal responsibility, and one way the population can exercise that is to self-isolate and monitor one’s conditions at home, instead of seeing the hospital as the first port of call
[2:10 pm, 27/09/2021] +Ben: Yes. And next I assume we'll be waiting for the kids to get vaccinated, which will be what March? 98% are asymptomatic, or v mild.
[2:13 pm, 27/09/2021] +Ben: "Admission into hospital for Covid-19 is more of a cultural expectation, but not a standard of care that is required for the patient, he added." This is where Gov needs to step in and stop the flood of people, not by restricting movement but by turning those away, or seeing up covid centres away from hospitals.
[2:14 pm, 27/09/2021] +Caleb: https://www.webmd.com/lung/news/20201218/covid-19-is-far-more-lethal-damaging-than-flu-data-shows
The death rate among COVID-19 patients was 18.5%, while it was 5.3% for those with the flu
[2:15 pm, 27/09/2021] +Ben: The two deaths on Saturday were elderly unvaccinated people with health conditions. Why is the country being shut down because of this? We cannot stop al people dying and we are not enforcing vaccinations.
[2:15 pm, 27/09/2021] +Caleb: So if SG is 2% for COVID. then should treat COVID like flu?
[2:17 pm, 27/09/2021] +Ben: This is not applicable in SG. They were unvaccinated and all US based. The death rate here is 78 out of 70,000 and that number is 0.1% which includes pre vaccination
[2:19 pm, 27/09/2021] +Ben: Health in US has high rates of diabetes over weight, great conditions etc.
[2:19 pm, 27/09/2021] +Ben: Many more underlying health conditions in the US.
[2:20 pm, 27/09/2021] +Ben: FRIDAY, Dec. 18, 2020
[2:20 pm, 27/09/2021] +Ben: That article is way out of date
[2:24 pm, 27/09/2021] +RH: https://www.mewatch.sg/watch/Talking-Point-2021-2022-E21-Thu-23-Sep-2021-Is-It-Worth-Vacationing-During-A-Pandemic-245347
[2:24 pm, 27/09/2021] +Caleb: So it is a lower death rate for COVID compare with flu?
[2:24 pm, 27/09/2021] +Caleb: Or COVID need more medical care like oxygen supply?
[2:30 pm, 27/09/2021] +Jospeh Ong: they are NOT
[2:33 pm, 27/09/2021] +Jospeh Ong: There are many reports/studies done globally to measure the antibodies in vaccinated people of different age groups after varying periods/time. Just google .. copy and past your question into google search
[2:34 pm, 27/09/2021] +Jospeh Ong: Numbers REPORTED is falling .. probably not testing as well ๐คท♂️
[2:41 pm, 27/09/2021] +Ben: How do you define "not coping"?
[2:42 pm, 27/09/2021] +Ben: Yes, antibodies drop, but the mRNA vaccine provides the code to create antibodies. So when you become infected your body creates the antibodies. That is why people who are vaccinated are getting ill but soon recover and don't get seriously ill.
[2:42 pm, 27/09/2021] +Ben: That is why we see hospitalisation and death rates falling even while cases are going up.
[2:43 pm, 27/09/2021] +Ben: Cases are going up, but hospitalisation and death is going down. So clearly they are still testing
[2:45 pm, 27/09/2021] +Ben: Simple and clear evidence. Cases up, hospiltisation and death is down.
[2:46 pm, 27/09/2021] +Ben: And they have no covid restrictions in place. Which is nuts in my opinion.
[2:46 pm, 27/09/2021] +Jospeh Ong: Your data is outdated .. tolong click refresh instead of asking the same question that many here have tried to answer before.
Daily new infection numbers have consistently exceeded 1k .. only 1k cases a day. 1% of these need hospitalisation, 0.1% need oxygen/intensive care...
>> 10/day needing hospitalisation
Singapore Hospitals have 11.5k hospital beds, of which more than 80% are already occupied by patients with other ailments
That leaves 2.3k hospiral beds available << this is a very optimistic estimtate by the way.
Simple mathematics will tell you that if we don't do something to slow down the rate of infections, we will run out of hospital beds soon, not to mention the strain on doctors/nurses provided care to the sick.
If we do nothing, the (conservative underestimate) 1k daily new infections can easily become 5k/day .... if you still do not understand the implications .. then really nothing to say liao ๐
[2:46 pm, 27/09/2021] +Ben: Our policies and Public opinion should be based on data, evidence and facts. Not sentiment.
[2:47 pm, 27/09/2021] ☸️ Danny ๅฟ:
1 in 2 Singapore residents say they cannot cope financially in event of illness or job loss: Survey
http://www.asiaone.com/singapore/1-2-singapore-residents-say-they-cannot-cope-financially-event-illness-or-job-loss-survey?utm_source=mobileapp&utm_medium=social-media&utm_campaign=native-share
[2:48 pm, 27/09/2021] ☸️ Danny ๅฟ:
My close friend comments: Serious and sad
My comments: Yes.
This is another sad part about covid.
It damage health and also damage people livelihood.
That is why front of hand is flesh. Back of hand is also flesh.
Both ways it hurts.
[2:48 pm, 27/09/2021] +Ben: Ok, so we need to look at the recovery rate as well. 10 per day, minus recovery. 2,000 bed at 10 per day equals 200 days, even not including the recovery period.
[2:49 pm, 27/09/2021] +Jospeh Ong: Foreign construction workers will obediently do that ... and probably be happy doing that. You seriously think the average Singaporean/locals/PRs/EP/WP will agree? ๐ณ
[2:49 pm, 27/09/2021] +Ben: Isn't that why we have government policies?
[2:50 pm, 27/09/2021] +Caleb: ya, many will not want to stay at Expo. Is communion leaving
[2:50 pm, 27/09/2021] +Ben: If people won't agree then how do we enforce the current restrictions?
[2:50 pm, 27/09/2021] +Ben: It shouldn't be a choice.
[2:52 pm, 27/09/2021] +Ben: Are we cherry picking policy based on what public do or don't want to do? No, we do what is right for the country.
[2:54 pm, 27/09/2021] +Ben: From 24th to 25th Sept serious illness in hospital went down, despite 1000+ new cases.
[2:56 pm, 27/09/2021] +Ben: Same for 22nd to 23rd. It went up from 23rd to 24th. Overall there is an increase but not close ton10 per day. So on current stats it will be a year before our beds are full. Plenty of time to make provisions.
[2:56 pm, 27/09/2021] +Ben: These restrictions are clearly unnecessary.
[2:58 pm, 27/09/2021] +Jospeh Ong: NOT doing anything about it .. mostly because they don't have the financial means and/or the political will
[3:04 pm, 27/09/2021] +Ben: OK, so their society and economies are all fine, despite doing nothing about it?
[3:07 pm, 27/09/2021] +Ben: Basically it looks like many countries are 'living with covid' people are going about their business. There are some restrictions in place, and some people are falling ill. What does it mean to Singapore to 'live with covid'?
[3:08 pm, 27/09/2021] +Ben: I'm not clear what it means based on the current policies. Public opinion appears quite divided and we don't know what the goal is.
[3:08 pm, 27/09/2021] +Ben: We were told to get vaccinated so we could open up. We did that. We opened up.
[3:08 pm, 27/09/2021] +Ben: We were told to stop being so obsessed with daily cases. But now everyone talks about daily cases.
[3:09 pm, 27/09/2021] +Ben: We are not looking at serious illness or death. We are focused on going to hospital even if we are not very ill.
[3:09 pm, 27/09/2021] +Ben: QO are being issued for anyone in contact with covid, which is overrunning our facilities.
[3:09 pm, 27/09/2021] +Ben: Is that an accurate assessment?
[3:10 pm, 27/09/2021] +Ben: Sorry for posting so much; I was playing catch up!
[3:13 pm, 27/09/2021] +Jospeh Ong: What your attached charts show is this:
- Negative correlation (and likely causation) between vaccination rate and infection
- Negative correlation (and likely causation) between restrictions/lockdowns rate and infection
>> See the falling numbers from Jan peak coinciding with vaccination program - which started in late 2020; and movement restrictions/lockdowns
See https://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/charts/uk-government-coronavirus-lockdowns
- Numbers rising again form mid-2021 coinciding with emergence of Delta variant
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/variants/delta-variant.html
Lastly... looking at the post-Delta variant emergence period - high vaccination rate, looser restrictions, population fatigue - the proportion (or ratio, %) of new infections : hospitalisations : deaths have been stable ... which suggests that we can project/forecast with a high confidence level, the % of people who will need hospitalisation and/or will die. It clearly explains why we have to keep an eye on the daily infection numbers because a % of those will likely need hospitalisation and/or will die. Higer infection rate >> more hospital beds needed >> medical services more stretched
[3:35 pm, 27/09/2021] +Ben: I see cases went up when restrictions ended. I see despite greatly increased cases the hospitalisation went up marginally. Despite greatly increased cases death increased marginally.
[3:38 pm, 27/09/2021] +Ben: Therefore cases numbers alone are not a measure of seriousness. People who are infected are no longer seriously ill and do not require hospitisation. The Gov is telling us that and they are correct.
[3:38 pm, 27/09/2021] +Ben: Therefore policy should adapt to this new approach
[3:39 pm, 27/09/2021] +Ben: People should not be at A&E unless seriously ill
[3:39 pm, 27/09/2021] +Ben: We need people to go to dedicated facilities to assess their condition and to stay home unless seriously ill
[3:40 pm, 27/09/2021] +Ben: We shouldn't be shutting down businesses and preventing normal life of 'living with covid'
[4:02 pm, 27/09/2021] +Smiley face: Unrealistic for Covid-19 curbs to go on indefinitely, say two-thirds of S'poreans in survey
https://www.straitstimes.com/singapore/health/unrealistic-for-covid-19-curbs-to-go-on-indefinitely-say-two-thirds-of-sporeans-in
[4:03 pm, 27/09/2021] +Ah Heng: hahah singaporeans ...
[4:03 pm, 27/09/2021] +Ah Heng: ok den ask them if health system break down
[4:03 pm, 27/09/2021] +Ben: We just need a purpose. And actual goal. Like we had for vaccinations, remember that?
[4:03 pm, 27/09/2021] +Ah Heng: more in the society gets hits including their kids
[4:04 pm, 27/09/2021] +Ah Heng: can they just shut their mouth and move one and embrace the situation?
[4:05 pm, 27/09/2021] +Ah Heng: o yesh after all worst case is 12 mths later covid will be a normal flu pifzer and mordena says so ... so whats there to worry right
[4:06 pm, 27/09/2021] +John Cheong: ๐ +1
[4:06 pm, 27/09/2021] +Ah Heng: till date is all abt govt govt .. what about the public
[4:06 pm, 27/09/2021] +Ah Heng: have we did our part ?
[4:07 pm, 27/09/2021] +John Cheong: ๐ -1
[4:07 pm, 27/09/2021] +Ah Heng: all these while the approach needs 2 hands to clap
[4:08 pm, 27/09/2021] +Ben: Ask them if all business go bust. Where are we then?
[4:08 pm, 27/09/2021] +Ben: https://www.bbc.com/news/health-57766717
[4:08 pm, 27/09/2021] +Ah Heng: govt and society, ask ourselves have we been doin gour part
[4:08 pm, 27/09/2021] +Ah Heng: when ur gelth syste breaks down and not able to support ur society is handicapp too
[4:08 pm, 27/09/2021] +Ah Heng: health sorry
[4:08 pm, 27/09/2021] +Ben: Why should they do that? Equally they could say the same about people who want restrictions increased to move on. Not a helpful approach!
[4:08 pm, 27/09/2021] +John Cheong: +1
[4:09 pm, 27/09/2021] +Ah Heng: certain conversation here is soo one sided
[4:09 pm, 27/09/2021] +John Cheong: Mental health goes bust also will take up healthcare capacity. Only difference is we don't measure it.
[4:09 pm, 27/09/2021] +Ah Heng: when in any system there is a pull and push
[4:10 pm, 27/09/2021] +Ah Heng: till the day society understand the bigger part to be played is by themselves going forth for any nation wide situation we could end up the same again
[4:10 pm, 27/09/2021] +Ben: +1
[4:13 pm, 27/09/2021] +John Cheong: We shouldn't look at covid like it's the only issue we are facing. That's very narrow minded and superficial. The situation MTF is facing isn't so simple as 1+1 = 2, lockdown = win.
[4:15 pm, 27/09/2021] +John Cheong: These policies have systemic impact - e.g. less people r going for cancer screening cos of covid restrictions. More late stage cancer diagnosis r expected bcos of this.
[4:15 pm, 27/09/2021] +John Cheong: Mental health. Economy. Jobs. How our trading partners see us. Foreign talents. Etc.
[4:17 pm, 27/09/2021] +John Cheong: Yes if everyone do our part, covid can b under control. For how long? And how realistic is it to ask everyone to do their part? How many people's mind have you changed so far? How many will listen?
[4:19 pm, 27/09/2021] +Ben: Doing our part means taking sensible precautions. Mask. Wash Hands. Stay Home when feeling ill. Get tested. Get vaccinated. All good actions the public can do. That is working in countries of high vaccination rate.
[4:20 pm, 27/09/2021] +Ben: We must not keep sacrificing our business. Our kids' childhood. Time with friends and families and our health over an unwarranted fear of the virus.
[4:20 pm, 27/09/2021] +John Cheong: +1000
[4:22 pm, 27/09/2021] +Ah Heng: so what both are indicating is our govt made a stupid decision to close up again ?
[4:22 pm, 27/09/2021] +Caleb: driving up daily cases much more quickly than we expected, before our ramp-up plans were fully implemented and before our support systems are fully in place," Mr Ong said https://www.channelnewsasia.com/singapore/covid19-delta-variant-surge-cases-ncid-director-leo-yee-sin-2204181
[4:22 pm, 27/09/2021] +Ben: Shutting and doors and our borders is like shutting our minds and ignoring the facts and realities. We are in a pandemic yes. We have a very good solution. It is working. We cannot eradicate every case, prevent every death and illness. We can reduce them to almost zero (0.1%) and still open our country. Evidence shows this.
[4:22 pm, 27/09/2021] +Ah Heng: sorry not even close
[4:22 pm, 27/09/2021] +Adrian: I think an issue is that if we have no clarity, we might just end up having "covid fatigue" and not doing all the things we should be doing
[4:22 pm, 27/09/2021] +Ah Heng: is to put singapore under restricted movement?
[4:24 pm, 27/09/2021] +Ah Heng: is as if the brains up there have no brains to see the waterfall effect of every closure (x1) and restricted movement phase put in place (x multiple times)
[4:25 pm, 27/09/2021] +Ah Heng: think they did weight the camps from both sides and rather not risk having the health system break down (like in other countries
[4:25 pm, 27/09/2021] ☸️ Danny ๅฟ:
Part 1 - Assessing our current situation
1. Context :-
a. Economy needs to open up. Business need to open up. Jobs need to be safeguarded and created ----- so as to secure the livelihood for our People, our Business and our Nation.
b. As at 26 Sep 2021 :-
- Serious cases = 202
- Oxygen support = 172
- ICU = 30
- Death to date = 78 (5 fully vaccinated) (76 elderly - over 60 years old).
- Hospital = 1,203 (1,600 beds reserve for covid patients - current).
- Doctors = 5,881 (Specialists), 5,641 (GPs)
c. Unvaccinated :-
- Adults = 257,000 (including 80,000 elderly)
- Young children below 12 years old = 570,000 (estimated - 10% of the total population)
- Estimated :- 82% fully vaccinated, 85% 1st jab, ---- 15% unvaccinated (about 827,000 - unvaccinated).
------
[4:25 pm, 27/09/2021] ☸️ Danny ๅฟ:
Part 2 - How did we cope with the latest Delta wave
1. As per the AI predictive simulation model and the current statistics and real life situation in Singapore context (as well as overseas Countries) --- 85% vaccination cannot cope with the Delta variants - and large outbreak do occur the moment we open up our Economy.
2. Large outbreak will occur - the moment we open our Economy with 85% vaccination --- as R0 = 5 - 9 (Based on US and UK study) and Rt > 1.5.
This Reproduction figures is equivalent to chickenpox pandemic and exceed smallpox transmission --- wheeby 85% vaccination will not be sufficient to cope with the Delta variants outbreak.
3. As the mRNA vaccines is not 100% effective, 95% for original covid and drop to about 66% for Delta variants --- large breakthrough in transmission occur - as model by the simulation model as well as real life scenarios that happen in Singapore and overseas Countries - even among the vaccinated.
4. Vaccinated despite the breakthrough - are still the best form of protection in terms of serious illness, oxygen support, ICU and death - as opposed to unvaccinated and partially vaccinated. This is reflected in Singapore and overseas hospitalisation situation as illustrated in Part 1 - Singapore.
5. The current vaccination strategy, theraputics treatment and safe distancing measures --- are not perfect ----- and hence watching how the current Delta wave overwhelming our hospital resources, and straining our medical staff ---- is very important ---- as it will cripple our healthcare system if we fail to do so.
6. Hospital resources have been under stress, even though now we manage to stretch and cope. But if this go on further - our healthcare system will collapse ---- as many patients of other illness have been postpone and move to other healthcare facilities.
Other Countries like UK - has already see many death not from covid - but due to lack of treatment - as hospital resources are taken up by covid patients.
Source :-
https://sg.yahoo.com/news/analysis-thousands-more-usual-dying-170117933.html Thousands more people than usual are dying ... but it’s not from Covid. As people has no access to hospital services, patients of other illness die from lack of medical treatment in UK.
7. Hence we will have to tackle a few areas - if we want to really live with the virus and operate in endemic mode.
-----
[4:26 pm, 27/09/2021] +Ah Heng: further more given the hit rate was at major human foot prints interchanges (like our airport) the approach liek they say is to buy time to ramp up the facilities (make sense) and to control the spread again.....
[4:26 pm, 27/09/2021] +Ah Heng: nobody likes closed up neither restricted
[4:27 pm, 27/09/2021] +Ah Heng: but if we cannot control an outbreak with numbers sky rocketing how can the society live with the virus .... soon all will come to a breakneck halt which is worst not for one sector but as a whole ....
[4:28 pm, 27/09/2021] +Ah Heng: is only a national virus and we already start killing each other mental right, business rights, this and that look from a national level if the nation can pull this off is good for everyone
[4:29 pm, 27/09/2021] +Ah Heng: if danny AI stats is true
[4:29 pm, 27/09/2021] +Ah Heng: till we learnt how to control such mass outbreak and put in place measures we will never get out of this dog chasing tail cycle
[4:31 pm, 27/09/2021] +Ah Heng: do note also we need to be in tandem with global recovery also if for some reason 80% of the world starts downtrend ... what good si it for us to open up instead we should play conservative to prevent being on the same bandwagon,
[4:36 pm, 27/09/2021] +REACH: Supermarkets say they are 'well-stocked' in wake of Pasir Panjang Wholesale Centre closure
Supermarket operators here are assuring customers that there are sufficient stocks of fruits and vegetables in-store, and reminding them to only purchase what they need.
More: https://str.sg/3Tdt
[4:43 pm, 27/09/2021] +Rama: True but there's no tried and tested alternative! Basic safe distancing, wearing of mask and using hand sanitizer is not heeded most of the times! Vaccination is debatable for some which adds to the headache!
[4:45 pm, 27/09/2021] ☸️ Danny ๅฟ:
Part 3 - Areas of Improvement - to mitigate the covid breakthrough and live with virus in endemic
1. Preventing or greatly reduce covid transmission.
- Explore nasal spray vaccine - as covid blocker to prevent transmission
- Or other solutions that can prevent covid transmission.
2. Vaccinate the remaining unvaccinated - 5% adults and elderly, 10% children below 12 years old (Pfizer has send all data about the children trial to US FDA, early Oct 2021 should have grant emergency approval).
Source :- https://www.reuters.com/business/healthcare-pharmaceuticals/pfizer-talks-over-full-license-covid-19-vaccine-singapore-2021-09-24/
Pfizer in talks over full license for COVID-19 vaccine in Singapore.
Full license is a prelude to compulsory vaccination.
Only when 100% vaccination is achieve like smallpox, measles, TB, polio, diptheria, mumps etc for covid --- and we truly live in endemic.
3. Booster 3rd shot for above 60 years old have shown to be beneficial - and can prevent breakthrough cases leading to death, ICU, oxygen - as the 5 vaccinated death are > 60 years old with co-morbities illness.
4. Keep abreast of theuraptics treatment - eg. monoclonal anti-bodies cocktail treatment that have been effective in treating covid patient.
5. Unless we can do all of Part 3 --- we have to be mentally prepare ourselves from periodic lockdown --- because the moment we reopen for endemic without addressing all of Part 3 --- we will experience the same situation that we are going through currently :-
- Spike in infection number
- Spike in hospitalisation, serious cases or death
- Crippling our healthcare system - and deprive other patients from getting treatment.
This is the Hard Truth --- based on math and science.
=====
[4:46 pm, 27/09/2021] +Smiley face: S'poreans socialising and dining out less, mental well-being has declined: Covid-19 survey
https://www.straitstimes.com/singapore/health/sporeans-socialising-and-dining-out-less-mental-well-being-has-declined-covid-19
[4:50 pm, 27/09/2021] +Ben: How is it that other highly vaccinated countries have opened up and not experiencing major problems? Isn't that the alternative available? We are more vaccinated and better equipped than these other countries so why are we being more cautious?
[4:53 pm, 27/09/2021] ☸️ Danny ๅฟ:
Singapore population density is very compact. One of the highest density in the world.
Not a big land space.
One trigger, it spread like wildfire in proximity.
[5:03 pm, 27/09/2021] +Ben: OK, so the debate is between the seriousness of daily cases. If we have decided 5 serious illness a day (based on some restrictions) is too much, and we want to reduce to 2 serious cases a day (tighter restrictions) then someone needs to make that case and tell us the plan to open up and keep cases down to 2. Otherwise we are in an endless situation of tightened restrictions. We have to understand the cost of reducing serious cases from 5 to 2 per day.
[5:04 pm, 27/09/2021] +Ben: If Singapore is so vulnerable we cannot cope with 5 serious cases a day then we might not be taken seriously as a modern stable reliable country worth investing in.
[5:05 pm, 27/09/2021] +Ben: Please remember - whilst every death is regrettable they are very rare and predominantly unvaccinated people with health conditions. Many more die of cancer and other diseases than Covid. We cannot defy nature.
[5:06 pm, 27/09/2021] +Ben: That is why I ask, what is required and expected for us to open up properly, with personal responsibility (mask, wash hands etc) being the prevention of Covid spread rather than mandate isolation?
[5:09 pm, 27/09/2021] +Boon: ๐+1
[5:22 pm, 27/09/2021] ☸️ Danny ๅฟ:
Bear in mind that covid lead to multi organs inflammation - heart, lungs, brain, blood clot etc.
These complications plus the elderly existing illness eg. Cancer, heart disease etc --- will require many doctors specialists attention.
This overwhelm our precious specialist resources and tremendous strain to our healthcare system.
It is an issue that is larger than the number of hospital beds.
[5:24 pm, 27/09/2021] +Ben: We are not seeing that in vaccinated people though. You are correct that a lot of bad things can happen with covid. However we need to take a sensible view and not panic due to irrational fear.
[5:24 pm, 27/09/2021] +Ben: Perspective is important.
[5:25 pm, 27/09/2021] ☸️ Danny ๅฟ:
Hence 100% vaccination is crucial.
[5:25 pm, 27/09/2021] +Ben: I'm unclear why we are looking at worst case hypothetical scenarios rather than looking at other well vaccinated countries who have opened up and have actual data we can rely on.
[5:26 pm, 27/09/2021] +John Cheong: Crucial for what? Why 100%? 98% will die?
[5:26 pm, 27/09/2021] +John Cheong: Yes higher vax rates of cos better. But what if that's not possible?
[5:27 pm, 27/09/2021] +John Cheong: Or u force those who have adverse reactions to take vax? They die how? U pay their family?
[5:27 pm, 27/09/2021] +Ben: Equally - we know that vaccination doesn't prevent 100% of death rates. What is Singapore's target in order to open up properly?
[5:28 pm, 27/09/2021] +John Cheong: 100% was never e target and no other country, no expert would say thats "'crucial"
[5:28 pm, 27/09/2021] +John Cheong: It's good to have.
[5:28 pm, 27/09/2021] ☸️ Danny ๅฟ:
Then live with this periodic lockdown.
[5:28 pm, 27/09/2021] +Ben: How many serious cases per day? What % death rate in which age groups? Are they really looking for 0% in elderly unvaccinated people? and over what period? If someone dies in 3 months time, do we close up again?
[5:28 pm, 27/09/2021] +John Cheong: One track mind Danny
[5:29 pm, 27/09/2021] +John Cheong: Only one solution to your problem
[5:29 pm, 27/09/2021] +John Cheong: One key to every door
[5:29 pm, 27/09/2021] +John Cheong: Well done.
[5:29 pm, 27/09/2021] +Ben: Whilst I agree with 100% Vaccination being a goal, it cannot be what we rely on in order to open up.
[5:29 pm, 27/09/2021] +Ben: It is just one piece of the solution
[5:29 pm, 27/09/2021] +Ben: And we cannot have have every piece in place to open up.
[5:30 pm, 27/09/2021] +Adrian: I don't think this is achieveable too....
[5:30 pm, 27/09/2021] +Ben: We do our best, we make sensible fact based decisions.
[5:31 pm, 27/09/2021] ☸️ Danny ๅฟ: https://sg.yahoo.com/finance/news/vaccines-we-forgot-how-bad-diseases-are-doctor-explains-184854328.html
Vaccines: 'We forgot how bad these diseases are,' doctor explains.
[5:31 pm, 27/09/2021] ☸️ Danny ๅฟ:
100% vaccination in past pandemics.
[5:32 pm, 27/09/2021] ☸️ Danny ๅฟ:
That curb smallpox measles mumps rubella diphtheria polio etc.
[5:33 pm, 27/09/2021] +Suma pamu: +1
[5:33 pm, 27/09/2021] +John Cheong: Dude.. no one is anti vax here
[5:34 pm, 27/09/2021] +Adrian: I feel that right now it's an emergency vaccine, we shouldn't mandate it. In a few years once we have better data on the potential side effects (aka long covid) then we might potentially make it mandatory
[5:35 pm, 27/09/2021] +Adrian: Right now, I Feel that engagement and persuasion is the way to go.
Our current Vacfination rate is already very impressive. Once we expand to the last group of children, and also target the unvaccinated seniors, I think we would have done a good job in this regard
[5:36 pm, 27/09/2021] +John Cheong: Long covid isnt caused by vax tho. I think u mean long term or serious side effects of vax.
[5:36 pm, 27/09/2021] ☸️ Danny ๅฟ:
My close friend comments:-
I feel uncomfortable with the exponential rise in covid cases although I have shared earlier that we should not be alarmed having seen the experience of other countries.
But what I feel even more uncomfortable is the divide amongst fellow singaporeans and constituents on what gov should, should have, should not and should not have done. No country has won the war yet.
Rather, I think we should let gov decide on macro issues and have confidence in them. Macro issues like Singapore's competitiveness, economic considerations, healthcare capacity etc.
For us individuals, I'd like to be in control of assessing my own risks and concerns and for people who are close to me such as family members.
But how?
Each of us know our own risk profile eg, age group, health issues, staying with elderly? Have young children who are not eligible for vaccination etc.
Can gov help to up the Trace Together game to make this into a personal radar for us to avoid danger spots?
Close contacts of infected persons must be updated as having highest transmission order. The close contacts of these contacts will be updated as second highest transmission order so on and so forth.
So if I'm travelling on a train or eating at a foodcourt, I can turn on my TT dashboard and watch around me, how many second transmission order , third transmission order persons are around and try to move away.
TT will not give away the personal info but at least let the user know around him whether he is too close for comfort knowing such info. We will be more empowered to either carry on with our activities or scale back with considerations of our own risk profile.
This I think is doable but require more thinking on how to update our status real time and without compromising our our privacy.
[5:36 pm, 27/09/2021] +Adrian: Oops sorry yes long covid is the wrong word, but ya you get what I mean haha
[5:37 pm, 27/09/2021] +Adrian: Sorry sorry Salah ๐
[5:37 pm, 27/09/2021] +John Cheong: ๐๐
[5:54 pm, 27/09/2021] +Elena Woo: https://www.instagram.com/p/CUOUpzrhnKF/?utm_medium=copy_link
[5:54 pm, 27/09/2021] +Elena Woo: Newborn baby kena covid ๐ฑ
[5:55 pm, 27/09/2021] +Elena Woo: I think the virus has spun out of control. Ytd 1.7k. Today maybe 2k.
[5:56 pm, 27/09/2021] ☸️ Danny ๅฟ:
Yesterday 1939.
[5:59 pm, 27/09/2021] ☸️ Danny ๅฟ:
Pfizer in talks over full license for COVID-19 vaccine in Singapore.
Full license is a prelude to compulsory vaccination.
https://www.reuters.com/business/healthcare-pharmaceuticals/pfizer-talks-over-full-license-covid-19-vaccine-singapore-2021-09-24/
[6:00 pm, 27/09/2021] ☸️ Danny ๅฟ:
We are getting closer.
[6:00 pm, 27/09/2021] +John Cheong: Correct! Already out of control...so why tighten measures? Since already out of control? Might as well reopen.
[6:01 pm, 27/09/2021] +Ben: What is considered under control? What number of illnesses and cases is the target to open up properly?
[6:06 pm, 27/09/2021] +John Cheong: Actually MOH should just stop contact tracing and stop including asymptomatic cases in e case count. Then we will think that it is "under control"...
[6:06 pm, 27/09/2021] +John Cheong: ๐คฆ♂️
[6:11 pm, 27/09/2021] +Elena Woo: Already their figures are trying to be less transparent. In fact to minimize ppl movement, they should retain the places where covid cases have went.
[6:11 pm, 27/09/2021] +An fan: Basically they are not sick. Agree.
[6:11 pm, 27/09/2021] +Elena Woo: But they are still spreaders.
[6:14 pm, 27/09/2021] +Ben: Not likely very much if vaccinated. And if people follow wash hands, wear masks protocol then spread is massively reduced as well.
[6:15 pm, 27/09/2021] ☸️ Danny ๅฟ:
R0 = 5 to 9.
That's one infected person can infect up to 9 person in close contact.
If nothing is done, by a month time, the whole population will be infected.
Close to 1 million people not yet vaccinated.
The whole healthcare system collapse.
[6:15 pm, 27/09/2021] +Elena Woo: But children are not eligible for vac.
[6:16 pm, 27/09/2021] +Elena Woo: Newborn in NICU because they caught it.
[6:16 pm, 27/09/2021] +Elena Woo: The figures nvr really segregate the young ones.
[6:17 pm, 27/09/2021] +Ben: Yes, and they also tell us: 98.0% have mild or no symptoms. They could also tell us "xx number have recovered today".
[6:17 pm, 27/09/2021] +Ben: "R0 = 5 to 9" what does this mean?
[6:17 pm, 27/09/2021] +Caleb: now if vax, 10 days later u can be discharge. they assume u not spreading
[6:18 pm, 27/09/2021] +Ben: If this is so bad, why is it that countries with no restrictions in place are functioning normally?
[6:18 pm, 27/09/2021] +Ben: Correct. and also not getting ill from it, right?
[6:19 pm, 27/09/2021] +Ben: OK, so daily discharge numbers would be helpful too.
[6:19 pm, 27/09/2021] +An fan: Yeah only the elders are the vulnerable people. People under 50 recovered very soon or showed no symptoms at at all.
[6:20 pm, 27/09/2021] +Ben: https://www.statista.com/statistics/1107434/victims-coronavirus-age-france/
[6:20 pm, 27/09/2021] +Ben: For example
[6:22 pm, 27/09/2021] +Ben: https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19/latestinsights
[6:22 pm, 27/09/2021] +Ben: 90% of UK has antibodies.
[6:23 pm, 27/09/2021] +Elena Woo: They are hospitalised and having dependency on oxygen. Not in ICU does not mean not get ill lo.
[6:24 pm, 27/09/2021] +Ben: How many children are in ICU?
[6:24 pm, 27/09/2021] +An fan: When you read the daily report, unvaccinated 93 old man and so on, we must accept that he is already very old and have other critical illnesses. COVID-19 is just a trigger, even flu may cost his life or accidentally falls down.
[6:24 pm, 27/09/2021] +Ben: how many Children dependent on oxygen?
[6:24 pm, 27/09/2021] +Ben: Yes, correct
[6:26 pm, 27/09/2021] +An fan: No kids at all required oxygen or at ICU
[6:27 pm, 27/09/2021] +Suma pamu: Yes so far every Day i am Reading this chart...
So i felt bit relaxed..๐ค๐ฝ
[6:27 pm, 27/09/2021] +Ben: UK Death rate by Age (since day 1)
[6:29 pm, 27/09/2021] +Ben: So in all the pandemic, despite infection rates spiking etc. Kids were at school. No vaccinations. There is not and had not been 1 kid seriously ill from Covid in Singapore.
[6:30 pm, 27/09/2021] +Ben: This is what I mean about perspective. Looking at hypothetical worst case scenarios and scaring us about our kids being at risk, is unhelpful. None of that has been seen in reality after 20 months and several occassions of 'out of control' transmission.
[6:31 pm, 27/09/2021] +Ben: Look at the relationship between infection, illness and death by age:
[6:32 pm, 27/09/2021] +An fan: Business as usual should be fine. Families with elders take special cautions themselves. Hospitals and nursing homes have to be cautious too.
[6:33 pm, 27/09/2021] +An fan: You see our schools almost open daily and still very few kid got infected from schools. Most from family members.
[6:33 pm, 27/09/2021] +Ben: Bear in mind those stats are from UK. No social distancing in place. No masks etc etc. Very poor policy in my view, and not surprising infection is high. I don't think this is right for Singapore, but I do think we are going too far on our restrictions.
[6:35 pm, 27/09/2021] +Ben: Yes, personal responsibility is correct at this point. Some basic government mandates about masks and some social distancing measures seems appropriate.
[6:36 pm, 27/09/2021] +Suma pamu: Majority countries Are actually Trying for Herd immunity after certain percentage of Vaccination has been completed.
This is what i am understanding.
If we want to do the same.. first thing is
STOP Testing Asymptomatic patients.
And Focus resources on People with Symptoms and people having chronic illnesses.
No point Now to Mention Where actually major cases are from, map data or Any other information.
Only thing is Making sure elderly to reduce Outings from home
If people visiting them should make sure they get ART test and if Ok then visit elderly.
This is the approach we should take.
Yday In a Fb group so many complaining about latest restrictions. I felt these group are behaving too much and feeling like its a lock down
No its not a lock down!
Many coma…
[6:38 pm, 27/09/2021] +An fan: Yeah masks and social distancing continues.
[6:43 pm, 27/09/2021] +Ben: Some good points here. Why are we seeing big spike in elderly infections? If vulnerable please stay home, avoid those who might be in contact with Covid. Seems sensible. Yes, maybe stop testing those Asymptomatic. If someone falls ill, get tested. It's not a lock down, but it is severely restricting lives, and crippling business. There is no evidence we will be overrun at hospitals in two weeks if we follow the above. People who are not ill do not need to be in hospital.
[6:44 pm, 27/09/2021] +REACH: Dear Contributors,
⏰ We will be closing the chat in 15 minutes ⏰
Thank you very much for being part of our WhatsApp chat and participating actively.
Goodnight!
Megan
[6:45 pm, 27/09/2021] +Kevin: Good night Megan
[6:46 pm, 27/09/2021] +Phyllis: Nights Megan!
[6:48 pm, 27/09/2021] +Suma pamu: We are not sure
Exp
In everyday Oxygen/ICU cases
How many actually got infection 2 weeks before
Or After some time?
We don't know
Everyday i am reading 100 plus elederly. (Some people saying that these group will die anyway .) But is Pathetic thought to say that.. if they are sick Govt has responsiblity to Make sure they give treatment to this group
So avg everyday 100 plus elderly infected.
In that 20 people End up in ICU.. how many days it will take to Full occupy ICU ?!(i told Minimum avg cases.. there will be many more actually!!)
As a developed Country we can not simply ignore this group.
[6:49 pm, 27/09/2021] +Ben: Thanks Megan!
[6:50 pm, 27/09/2021] +Ben: Yes they are not being ignored! 20 people are not ending up in ICU each day, don't worry. Do you agree they should exercise personal responsibilty, or rely on Gov to mandate restrictions on the whole country?
[6:52 pm, 27/09/2021] +Ben: We have just 172 in ICU across country, so nothing like 20 added each day. Pandemic has been with us for 600+ days, I lose count.
[6:52 pm, 27/09/2021] +Suma pamu: Personal care Is a must and every one must follow that
[6:52 pm, 27/09/2021] +Ben: Agreed! Good night :)
[6:53 pm, 27/09/2021] +Suma pamu: Good night๐๐ฝ
[7:00 pm, 27/09/2021] +Smiley face: 27 September, 2021
To: Distinguished MTF, DMS And All Honorable Members
"The Productivity, Activities And The Correlations of Public Safety And Private Space"
Almost certain that these ups and downs waves of infection and disruption of all sorts will affect many countries leading into 2022. Tomorrow comes, how are we going to recreate, live, work and be mindful in balancing the public health concerns and privately at homes?
Risks Stratification:
Our data shown that based on risk stratification on age group, our seniors are the highest vulnerable group in this present wave of concern. If this is so, perhaps the medical infrastructures will have to PRIORTISE and skew to this group from IMMEDIATE isolation, observation and telemedic: In high gearing to Secure & Stabilise our Seniors once MOH identify such cases through self test or at all clinics at day 1.
One step ahead, should a family is experiencing C-19 infection and this family has one or more seniors, then the PRE-ALERT medical alarm will be activated for this family. Having a guildline on the scale of 1 to 3, three being the RED alert and one being under observation; the potential risks and seniors whenever a call for help is signal to MOH 24/7 hotline or referal by polyclinics and private clinics at large.
Four Pillars of Counter-Actions:
Identify >> Prioritise >> Secure >> Stabilise
New Ways:
It is an ongoing competition between Covid and Human. In simple tones, the physical, behaviors and social sciences of four sweet spots that are obvious to many but it is critical that we seek a consensus to draft a SOP to optimise economics productivity and permissable social activities.
Overcrowding
Hygiene
Exposures
Timing
Curb Overcrowding:
The 1 metre Distancing is a measurement of safety and curb overcrowding.
Pupils not sitting for national exams or have completed these year end exams exams at various levels should be put on HBL for the rest of the school year.
Starting today, working adults should be encouraged to 50/50 WFH capacity on rotational rooster for the next 8 weeks or extended if necessary.
Public Hygiene:
Continuous mass media to create awareness towards a social habit of public and private hygiene. A simple set of hygiene to be observed other than wearing masks and washing hands.
Limiting Exposures:
Public places of entertainment, recreational or relaxation should have an unified time based guidelines to reduce overuse of these venues/entities, this instance is to reduce human to human exposures and potential cross contamination of diseases, the present primary concern is C-19. Ones immunity is vital in fighting against C-19.
Calibrated Timing:
All economics productivities and social activities will have to adjust, adapt and restraint in this early days of endemic. There are limited choices to otherwise openly and daringly ignore the risk of Reinfection, dislocation and continuous waves of surging cases in thousands on a daily basis.
Equipments and Medicines:
What's the total Spares medical hardwares in three categories namely general, oxygen-equip, CCU & ICU? As a contingent of softwares, the medical staffs from helps to medical specialists, what's the absolute headcount and the ratio of patients to each of these categorised resource, this discussion, both public & private medical resources?
Summary:
Perhaps the combination of sciences, maths and models will predict up to 80% accuracy of the unknown outcomes. In short, there is no correct nor wrong, in simpleton, it is all about HUMAN wellbeing and importantly be overly prepared!
The daily report of cases and calamities serves as a LEADING indicator and reference of where the pace of infection and stratified risk groups are heading into the following week, it is like a futures indication of things that is coming. This daily report is an important benchmark for policymakers, businesses and societies the present stage of this pandemic prospecting into the longer path of ending this C-19.
Besides having a leading indicator, the usefulness of having a LAGGING indicator will serve especially well in the key economics activities that are directly or unintendedly affected by this pandemic, this case tracking C-19.
A balanced and calibrated approach in solving impending challenges and seeking potential opportunities to break out of the present early stage of endemic and drive towards a new normalcy.
Afterall, millions have called it a RESET of things, this C-19 is a challenge of stamina to persist on and stomach all unintended consequences. The epicity of life and its meaning, risk, that's part of life!
Afterwords:
"Cowards die many times before their deaths. The valiant never taste of death but once... " Julius Caesar (Act 2, Scene 2)
-- William Shakespeare
"the problem is, we HUMAN are creatures of HABIT with needs to physically INTERACT..."
-- Ian T
[7:00 pm, 27/09/2021] +REACH: Dear Contributors,
We will be closing the chat for today.
Thank you very much for being part of our WhatsApp chat and participating actively.
Goodnight!
Megan ๐
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