REACH 476 - Are you concerned about the outlook for Singapore's economy? What changes, if any, have you made in your life to deal with current economic conditions?
(SK)
18 Jul 2023 (10am - 7pm)
REACH
18/07/2023, 9:04 am - +REACH: *Dear Contributors,*
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18/07/2023, 9:05 am - +REACH: 📢 *Topic* 📢
Singapore’s economy expanded by 0.3 per cent in the second quarter of 2023 from the previous three months, narrowly avoiding a technical recession or two consecutive quarters of contraction. Gross domestic product (GDP) also grew 0.7 per cent year on year in the April-June period, according to advance estimates from the Ministry of Trade and Industry (MTI) on Friday.
Despite dodging a recession, economists were still rather gloomy about the outlook for Singapore’s economy, saying the economy is likely to stay stagnant and recovery is uncertain.
💬 *Are you concerned about the outlook for Singapore's economy? What changes, if any, have you made in your life to deal with current economic conditions?*
Flash estimates showed the manufacturing sector contracted 7.5 per cent year on year in the second quarter, likely on weakness in the global economy and the electronics down cycle. An anticipated recovery in the global electronics industry, especially for semiconductors, appears to have been delayed towards the fourth quarter of 2023 or even early 2024.
On the other hand, recovery in the service sector has offset the manufacturing downturn. The wholesale and retail trade, and transportation and storage sectors collectively grew by 2.6 per cent year on year in the second quarter.
The group of sectors comprising the information and communications, finance and insurance and professional services sectors grew by 1.5 per cent year on year in the second quarter. Accommodation and food services, real estate, administrative and support services and other services expanded by a combined 6.1 per cent year on year. The construction sector grew by 6.6 per cent year on year in the second quarter, extending the 6.9 per cent growth in the first quarter.
👉🏻 https://www.straitstimes.com/business/singapore-avoids-technical-recession-with-economy-growing-03-quarter-on-quarter
👉🏻https://www.channelnewsasia.com/business/advanced-gdp-estimates-economists-gloomy-avoid-technical-recession-3629346
👉🏻 https://www.straitstimes.com/business/singapore-factory-slump-deepens-as-output-shrinks-108-in-may-worse-than-expected
18/07/2023, 9:06 am - ~ REACH Singapore changed this group's settings to allow all participants to send messages to this group
18/07/2023, 9:10 am - ~ REACH Singapore changed the group description
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18/07/2023, 9:50 am - +Rama: We have to bite the bullet to see this through
18/07/2023, 9:58 am - +Ah Heng: a face is the global economy is unstable
18/07/2023, 9:58 am - +Ah Heng: see stock market and one will know 2 days red 1 day green
18/07/2023, 9:58 am - +Ah Heng: sentiments are not strong
18/07/2023, 9:59 am - +Ah Heng: US have to face the fact they are going down hill and cannot cling on the throne
18/07/2023, 9:59 am - +Ah Heng: global govt have to join hands to work in collaborative mode and stop all wars
18/07/2023, 10:00 am - +Ah Heng: some issues cannot depend on the theory of freedom and humans rights to resolve when one do not know the historical culture and and social impact
18/07/2023, 10:01 am - +Ah Heng: locally besides all the small issues brought up in the house, members shoudl be brain storming on how to ride out this storm without spoon feeding the public nor getting the reserve (unless is another major major crisis like covid )
18/07/2023, 10:03 am - +Rama: Agree
18/07/2023, 10:08 am - +JC: erm S&P500 very high bro... <This message was edited>
18/07/2023, 10:09 am - +Ah Heng: u trust the value of snp
18/07/2023, 10:09 am - +Ah Heng: u trust the mkt of USA?
18/07/2023, 10:09 am - +JC: just saying
18/07/2023, 10:09 am - +Ah Heng: better to ask u trust the green back still strong
18/07/2023, 10:09 am - +JC: u don't get to current levels 2 day red 1 day green.
18/07/2023, 10:10 am - +Ah Heng: usually monday and tuesday green
18/07/2023, 10:10 am - +Ah Heng: then thursday and friday is the usual sell off
18/07/2023, 10:10 am - +JC: STI index more likely 2 days red 1 day green
18/07/2023, 10:12 am - +Ah Heng: in short whatever the US is selling is not giving confidence ....
18/07/2023, 10:12 am - +Ah Heng: actually how to give us confidence when they ahve trillion of debt hahahaha
18/07/2023, 10:12 am - +Ah Heng: maybe layman like me really cannot see the picture
18/07/2023, 10:13 am - +Ah Heng: a country of others will have close shop by then
18/07/2023, 10:25 am - +Frankie Wee: FY 2023 onwards never have crisis economy when technology recession will recovered
18/07/2023, 10:37 am - +Smiley face: 18 July, 2023
"Haven and Earth?"
In SG or in big cities of ASEAN, space is tight and at times highly compact; while in the US or China or even Europe spaces are starting to empty, this case office space and how about retail or F&B spaces?
So what are contributing factors to these converging trends of "loosen space"? it's the global economies, the stubborn inflation, the shrinking disposable incomes, and the coming of the digital transformation.
"It will be a Big consolidation of economies; nation to nation; a fragmented working order of the world!"
The worst has yet to arrive...
- - in progress - -
18/07/2023, 10:37 am - +Smiley face: American cities caught in downtown doom loop
https://www.straitstimes.com/world/united-states/american-cities-caught-in-downtown-doom-loop
18/07/2023, 10:39 am - +Smiley face: Tesla move expected to bring high-paying jobs to Selangor
https://www.straitstimes.com/asia/se-asia/tesla-move-expected-to-bring-high-paying-jobs-to-selangor
Tesla will fully automate its production... what's left for human is perhaps checks and balances jobs starting from QC to sales people and technicians.
To sum it all, human will do the ODD jobs that robots or AI could not achieve for the time being ... it's all about achieving the highest precision production and transaction recesses to the minimal and importantly, the least steps in order to counter the near future of the ESG compliances which will be major cost consideration for all businesses; starting from the scale of manufacturing and transform downstream to your retailers and your daily dealings...
It is simply an unstoppable transformation, this new era of Digitisations!
18/07/2023, 10:41 am - +Smiley face: High crime rate, e commerce and unemployment that caused these vacated downtown Frisco shop spaces. Not a safe place for tourists especially Asian!
https://youtu.be/vB3IU8uwb2k
18/07/2023, 10:43 am - +Ah Heng: LA region is very bad
18/07/2023, 10:43 am - +Ah Heng: can see see the streets is not like the LA people used to know
18/07/2023, 10:45 am - +Ah Heng: thus s the power shift from west to east, besides the obvious ... can we guarantee the region will not suffer a fate like what ala middle east / libya (if anyone read how libya was before ...
18/07/2023, 10:45 am - +Ah Heng: will it be another case where the west accus of the east stealing their manufacturing jobs ?
18/07/2023, 10:46 am - +Ah Heng: but do we see teh west for saying robots steal their jobs now hahahah cos they are the ones effectively building more and more robots
18/07/2023, 10:48 am - +Frankie Wee: Homeless ppl there man in the street sleep
18/07/2023, 10:50 am - +Frankie Wee: https://www.reuters.com/world/us/ny-fed-report-finds-americans-increasingly-facing-borrowing-headwinds-2023-07-17/
18/07/2023, 10:52 am - +Frankie Wee: USA govt limit ceiling debt and inflation very high they keep on borrowing credit till end of day they don’t want pay back then end up sleep in street either they took drug themselves give up life.
18/07/2023, 10:53 am - +Ah Heng: saw from some web video there is alot of homeless and druggies on the street .... US is not longer the USA of yester years if they do not understand the cycle of golden age
18/07/2023, 10:54 am - +Ah Heng: on our land we reach the history of our neighbors in school thus not sure how many remember our humanities subject where golden age was taught and shown ...
18/07/2023, 10:54 am - +~L: Yep I was there a few months ago.... not pleasant.
18/07/2023, 10:54 am - +Ah Heng: thus our incumbent govt is facing this new challenge to survive in our past golden age and need to foresee the next pick up wave
18/07/2023, 10:55 am - +Smiley face: Wheat prices jump after Russia halts Ukraine grain deal
https://www.cnbc.com/2023/07/17/russia-ukraine-grain-deal-what-does-it-mean-for-global-food-prices.html?__source=androidappshare
Food Inflation ...?
18/07/2023, 10:55 am - +Ah Heng: this is a sad to learnt .. cos SF was a very nice place to go better than big apple
18/07/2023, 10:55 am - +Frankie Wee: Biden Jose can service the public own American government instead paying for war
18/07/2023, 10:56 am - +Ah Heng: but no war for them means no income
18/07/2023, 10:57 am - +Ah Heng: since the brith of the United states is hardly a day they do not have war
18/07/2023, 10:57 am - +Ah Heng: think can find this fact in the great WWW
18/07/2023, 10:57 am - +Ah Heng: their basis of revenue seems not from trade rather war hahahahaa
18/07/2023, 10:57 am - +Frankie Wee: Old day back in America civilians war
18/07/2023, 10:57 am - +Ah Heng: some might say china / chinese also mah
18/07/2023, 10:58 am - +Ah Heng: but mind them china war is internal it hard spread over and instigate
18/07/2023, 10:58 am - +Frankie Wee: China seek to be peaceful but the American keep on against China
18/07/2023, 10:58 am - +Ah Heng: but china is no sleeping dog also they rather entice you with $$$ but no free lunch also ...
18/07/2023, 10:59 am - +Ah Heng: and the chinese being chinese are too big headed .. they evolve too fast but failed to live with evolution that's how i see things
18/07/2023, 11:00 am - +Ah Heng: but back to our topic ...
18/07/2023, 11:00 am - +Frankie Wee: <Media omitted>
18/07/2023, 11:00 am - +Frankie Wee: <Media omitted>
18/07/2023, 11:02 am - +Ah Heng: the different bodies within our governing committee and political parties have to stop bickering and for once worked onto a common goal
18/07/2023, 11:02 am - +Ah Heng: hahahah marketing session ... u know lah show your best but when in production another question hahahaha
18/07/2023, 11:03 am - +Ah Heng: is not i do not trust china product but i believe like japan whatever is to stay in country is better then those to be exported hehehehe
18/07/2023, 11:03 am - +Ah Heng: china is more like the other way whatever to be export is better than domestic mkt cos they can morph to much better domestic product hahahaha
18/07/2023, 11:05 am - +Frankie Wee: No matter it’s still welcome Singapore investment and better building infrastructure future AI.
Different country within mean they are from group economy
Singapore is best known as ASEAN country.
18/07/2023, 11:06 am - +Ah Heng: and is tough to stay at being the best ...
18/07/2023, 11:06 am - +Ah Heng: espically with so call leaders keep bringing up stupid things like why stay in big house
18/07/2023, 11:06 am - +Frankie Wee: I heard BIRICS high net worth but sanction were cut off trade with Russia
18/07/2023, 11:07 am - +Ah Heng: and cannot keep their head straight when lust is involved
18/07/2023, 11:07 am - +Frankie Wee: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/BRICS
18/07/2023, 11:07 am - +Ah Heng: if dampens our reputation in certain way
18/07/2023, 11:09 am - +Frankie Wee: USA next election new president. Let’s it see how USA can recovery economy and debts.
18/07/2023, 11:46 am - +Ah Heng: will never .. hahahah as long as it needs to feeds the war, the war companies are the so call fund sponsor of candidates ....
18/07/2023, 11:47 am - +Ah Heng: the north will be south pole if US swear off military might and really work for her people
18/07/2023, 11:47 am - +Rama: Doomed!
18/07/2023, 11:48 am - +Rama: Not likely if trump comes in again
18/07/2023, 11:49 am - +Rama: Wait long long
18/07/2023, 11:49 am - +Rama: The bald eagle is no match for the mighty dragon
18/07/2023, 11:49 am - +Rama: Agree
18/07/2023, 11:50 am - +Rama: GE 2025 is going to be very tough
18/07/2023, 11:50 am - +Ah Heng: is going to be a much bother line fight locally
18/07/2023, 11:50 am - +Ah Heng: might be a 48: 52 thing
18/07/2023, 11:51 am - +Rama: Tourism maps and TV programmes pain a false reality of the country
18/07/2023, 11:52 am - +Rama: What would be the actual cost in lost of seats!?
18/07/2023, 11:52 am - +Rama: Cutting it very thin!
18/07/2023, 11:53 am - +Smiley face: 18 July, 2023
"Never Be the Same Again, or a bigger war,...!"
What is war and how about peace?
Two proven human nature behaviors is conflict and greed; both in peace time and in wartime. Two extreme scenarios and two different outcomes. History has written over and over; you can win a war but you can't always win over peace. That's itself is a losing game of war, the people could not find peace and no more prosperity. War is a losing game, it is the attrition of all resources just to win it! So why wage a war? The in-between of these two is crises and civilisation.
EU:
Four pillars of peace and prosperity of the EU prior to the invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022.
1) cheap energy supplies from Russia.
2) existing export markets to China.
3) dynamic manufacturing base.
4) farming out security to the US.
What's the problem with the world, now?
All along, these countries are divided because of self interests, strategies and foreign policies.
American, African, British, Canadian, Chinese, Europeans, Eastern Europeans, Emirates, Koreans, Japanese, South American, and Russian.
China:
It's done! China has signed 27 years of LNG supplies with an annual capacity of 4 million tons deliverable. With Saudi Arabia, collaboration of Oil & Gas upstream initiatives, cloud computing, telecoms, military and 30 other areas of cooperation. Importantly, will the Chinese Yuan be the currency of these economic exchanges or instead pay in US dollars which nobody will deny it, how about in the Middle East trades?
- - in progress - -
18/07/2023, 11:53 am - +Rama: Transparency could ease the issues
18/07/2023, 12:01 pm - ☸️ Danny 心:
1. Singapore is very dependent on trade - 3 times the size of our GDP - to do well in our economy.
2. However, the global economy climate is not favourable after the pandemic due to high inflation arising from derail global supply chain not sourcing from the cheapest source, poor food crops harvest due to global warming, and Ukraine war disrupting food and mineral supply.
3. To tackle the high inflation, US has been raising interest rate causing the world to raise interest rates as well to prevent money outflow.
4. Hence global business can no longer depends on cheap loan, issue low interest bonds or issue shares to raise capital for investment.
5. Consumers cannot borrow cheap loans from banks to finance their spendings in houses, cars and other luxury items.
6. In addition, US big tech have been cutting staff enmass due to over hiring during pandemic time, and China curbing of big tech and zero pandemic have damp consumption even though it has relax such measures.
Both 2 of our biggest export market are not importing due to dampen demand from business and consumer.
7. Hence our manufacturing and trade are quite badly hit. <This message was edited>
18/07/2023, 12:02 pm - +Eunice Lim: They have space to start afresh with better planning
It's easy to observe this in HCM, comparing district 1 infrastructure with (for example) district 7. District 7 is like our loosely built business parks.
18/07/2023, 12:28 pm - +Jimmy Chew: Democratic experiment of true freedom. Maybe LKY saw it coming..the lack of discipline..maybe saw it in the gangsters
18/07/2023, 12:31 pm - +Jimmy Chew: Competition helps progress 💪
18/07/2023, 12:31 pm - +Jimmy Chew: Fight but must produce trade
18/07/2023, 12:37 pm - ☸️ Danny 心:
1. High inflation is a very serious economic condition as it dampen the wealth of not only individuals, household but also business and the government.
2. Hence curbing the high inflation become critical.
3. As the inflation are mainly due to high prices of imported goods - Singapore managing our exchange rate as part of monetary policy to curb imported inflation become imperative.
4. By adjusting our exchange rate upwards against a basket of currency to curb inflation, it will make our imported goods cheaper - and hence tapering the price hike of imported goods.
5. But by doing so, MAS will have to use our currency reserves to buy S$ and sell foreign currencies to make our S$ strong.
Hence MAS will have to incur loss while doing so.
But such money policy action have a positive impact on our economy - as our inflation now hover around 5% and high 4% - protecting our Country's wealth. As we do not need to pay more money for the same quality and quantity of goods (relatively compare to other countries).
6. Though our monetary policy don't adjust interest rate, generally our banks and financial institutions will adjust our interest rate in conjunction with US fed adjustment of interest rate - to prevent capital outflows.
7. Hence we still have to contend with a high interest rate domestically - and this will dampen our business activities as well as consumers borrowing and spending.
18/07/2023, 12:49 pm - +Smiley face: "Taylor's Principle implies that when inflation rises, the real interest rate should be increased. The idea that the nominal interest rate should be raised "more than one-for-one" to cool the economy when inflation increases (that is increasing the real interest rate) has been called the Taylor principle."
- - John B. Taylor
18/07/2023, 12:52 pm - +Smiley face: Just look at the current and last Q China and EU figures
18/07/2023, 12:56 pm - ☸️ Danny 心:
Note:- double digits high inflation in the 1930s lead to widespread business shutdown and massive loss of jobs started from US, later spread to Europe - and trigger World War 2.
It is quite lucky for us that after covid pandemic, geopolitical tension, high inflation due to supply chain disruption and subsequent Ukraine war - we are seeing a shade of 1930s appearing.
Luckily, the world did not erupt into a WW3.
But the world have not totally escape from it yet.
Ukraine war is still ongoing.
Asia Pacific region tension is still high.
Global high inflation is still hovering.
Global trade has still not fully recovered.
18/07/2023, 12:56 pm - +Smiley face: Singapore home to more than half of Asia’s family offices: Report
https://www.straitstimes.com/business/singapore-home-to-more-than-half-of-asia-s-family-offices-report
"More than half of the family offices in Asia are estimated to be located in Singapore, said KPMG Private Enterprise and family office consultancy Agreus in a report.
Some 9 per cent of the world’s family offices are located in Asia, of which 59 per cent are in Singapore, according to the 2023 Global Family Office Compensation Benchmark Report.
The report estimated that there are around 20,000 family offices globally today. It noted that family offices have become accustomed to operating in times of uncertainty, and are quite uniform in their approach."
18/07/2023, 1:16 pm - ☸️ Danny 心:
My close friend comments:-
You jump the gun... Spanish flu pandemic was around 1918-1920.
(A mirror image of covid pandemic that we are going through).
We should be worrying if Great Depression is going to repeat itself.
WWW 2 started in late 1930s depending on which major event we consider as WWW 2 trigger.
Too early to say we averted WWW 3.
My comments:-
History do repeat itself if humanity is not mindful.
Humanity need to learn from past history and not repeat the same mistake.
18/07/2023, 1:24 pm - ☸️ Danny 心:
1. As external global economy will take time to recover from high inflation, high interest rate as well as job loss (note:- China young graduates unemployment run into double digits percentage) - trade and our manufacturing sectors will continue to slowdown.
2. Hence we have to depend on domestic economy as well as services sectors to boost our economy and prevent a recession.
3. Construction sector by ramping up our HDB BTO flats to meet rising demand, maybe a good idea to hasten the building of cycling path - through government spending is one good way to boost the domestic economy.
4. Pent up demand after pandemic trigger consumption in the retail sector, f&b, wholesale, travel, MICE activities - can supplement our economy.
5. Luckily our business has ramp up and there are still high demand for workers - hence local workers can demand higher salaries that will help to cushion higher inflation.
6. Singapore also very successful in attracting ultra rich family office with net worth of $30 million and above.
At the same time, EDB, IE Singapore have been able to attract investment into our shores.
7. Together with healthy government finances plus financial support to individuals and households, we are still able to cope amidst the high inflation.
18/07/2023, 1:27 pm - ☸️ Danny 心:
8. As for retirees and higher income earners with healthy passive income, the high interest environment has helped retirees to cope by investing in guarantee safe financial instruments such as fixed deposit, ssb, t-bill, SGS, insurance saving plans, insurance gratuity etc.
18/07/2023, 1:43 pm - ☸️ Danny 心:
1. Even as external economic environment is daunting, as long as we are united and our leaders are capable - we can weather the external storm.
2. Internal strength is the one that make us strong.
3. Hence we cannot let our strongest pillars unravel and fall apart.
4. We have to ensure our leadership continue to be strong, reliable, competent, trustworthy and our people continue to trust and support our leadership.
5. Yes, we are currently going through some political hiccups (not a political storm) - as the whole leadership are still sturdy and reliable.
Our political system are still trustworthy though a few cases has shaken us somewhat.
6. It will take awhile to repair the dent - as an investigation are still pending - but I doubt it will rock the whole leadership - as long as the system is transparent and handled carefully with justice.
7. As long as the governance system integrity is intact - in due course, people's confidence with the government will be restored.
8. In this mundane world, nothing is infallible.
9. As long as the wholesome cardinal values are consistently and mindfully uphold - the damage will restore by itself.
18/07/2023, 1:49 pm - ☸️ Danny 心: <Media omitted>
18/07/2023, 1:54 pm - +Smiley face: What happened before 1929 and closer to 1937?
Who were the famous wall street bankers and banks prior to the crash leading to 1929 and it took a decade to come out of it and in came Hitler, Mussolini, Mao and Chamberlain?...
How about the Swiss Banks?
18/07/2023, 1:55 pm - +Smiley face: Churchill... the man!
18/07/2023, 1:57 pm - +Smiley face: Only if the world petroleum reduces or completely stops using this black gold?
The real Gold will be back sooner...is it possible or not so this lifetime?
Should the world (individuals) start buying gold to peg against any future currencies devaluation?
The SG dollars was established in 1967...
18/07/2023, 1:57 pm - +REACH: 📢 *Topic* 📢
Singapore’s economy expanded by 0.3 per cent in the second quarter of 2023 from the previous three months, narrowly avoiding a technical recession or two consecutive quarters of contraction. Gross domestic product (GDP) also grew 0.7 per cent year on year in the April-June period, according to advance estimates from the Ministry of Trade and Industry (MTI) on Friday.
Despite dodging a recession, economists were still rather gloomy about the outlook for Singapore’s economy, saying the economy is likely to stay stagnant and recovery is uncertain.
💬 *Are you concerned about the outlook for Singapore's economy? What changes, if any, have you made in your life to deal with current economic conditions?*
Flash estimates showed the manufacturing sector contracted 7.5 per cent year on year in the second quarter, likely on weakness in the global economy and the electronics down cycle. An anticipated recovery in the global electronics industry, especially for semiconductors, appears to have been delayed towards the fourth quarter of 2023 or even early 2024.
On the other hand, recovery in the service sector has offset the manufacturing downturn. The wholesale and retail trade, and transportation and storage sectors collectively grew by 2.6 per cent year on year in the second quarter.
The group of sectors comprising the information and communications, finance and insurance and professional services sectors grew by 1.5 per cent year on year in the second quarter. Accommodation and food services, real estate, administrative and support services and other services expanded by a combined 6.1 per cent year on year. The construction sector grew by 6.6 per cent year on year in the second quarter, extending the 6.9 per cent growth in the first quarter.
👉🏻 https://www.straitstimes.com/business/singapore-avoids-technical-recession-with-economy-growing-03-quarter-on-quarter
👉🏻https://www.channelnewsasia.com/business/advanced-gdp-estimates-economists-gloomy-avoid-technical-recession-3629346
👉🏻 https://www.straitstimes.com/business/singapore-factory-slump-deepens-as-output-shrinks-108-in-may-worse-than-expected
18/07/2023, 1:58 pm - +Smiley face: SG can handle this storm!
18/07/2023, 2:10 pm - ☸️ Danny 心:
These 4 cardinal values are mirror of :-
1. Panna Wisdom
2. Karma
3. Preserverance
4. Middle Path.
18/07/2023, 2:30 pm - ☸️ Danny 心:
I will also like to mention
"Official poverty line" - one of the issue that stoke the parliament.
I will replace f... Populist with "fatal populist" - on coining the policy of "official poverty line".
It is devoid of sound financial, economic and social fundamentals.
Brew:-
1. Beggar mentality - people stop working and expect government to give them monthly eg. $1,500 (the official poverty line).
2. Who pay?
Taxpayers - more GST, more income tax, property tax, corporate tax?
Government raid reserves to pay.
3. Outcome -
Poor labour turnout (why work if government dish out free money - under the armbit of official poverty line?)
High public debt if reserves bankrupt and government need to borrow to finance the official poverty line.
This populist social welfare and labour policies - will sink Singapore and condemn our young generation and future generations into mountain of debt.
F... Populist -- "Fatal Populist".
18/07/2023, 2:38 pm - +~L: Equally... below poverty line equals poor health, homelessness, childhood with no opportunity, crime, suicide...
18/07/2023, 2:42 pm - ☸️ Danny 心:
It is also hidden and translated into "minimum wages" that ignore the respective industry salary norm as well as productivity growth with respect to each industry.
This contradict the PWM (progressive wage model) in which setting basic salary per each industry are based on individual industry salary norm plus productivity growth to commensurate with progressive salary.
Hence coining the concept of "official poverty line" - will be detrimental to our labour competitiveness and business competitiveness.
"F..... Populist ".
"Fatal Populist "...
18/07/2023, 2:45 pm - ☸️ Danny 心:
Those countries that adopt "official poverty line" incidentally have the highest gun violence, drugs consumption, crime rate, suicide, poverty and homelessness.
Singapore on the other hand has the highest per capita GDP and more than 90% over people own their houses.
And a respectable Gini coefficient - because of our policy of government redistribution of wealth - that are economically and financially sustainable. <This message was edited>
18/07/2023, 2:52 pm - ☸️ Danny 心: <Media omitted>
18/07/2023, 2:52 pm - ☸️ Danny 心: <Media omitted>
18/07/2023, 2:54 pm - ☸️ Danny 心:
Singapore without adopting "official poverty line" - has among the most relative equality compared to the rest of the world that have "official poverty line ".
18/07/2023, 2:59 pm - +~L: I think that's probably true. Any stats to back it up?
18/07/2023, 2:59 pm - ☸️ Danny 心: <Media omitted>
18/07/2023, 3:05 pm - ☸️ Danny 心: <Media omitted>
18/07/2023, 3:08 pm - ☸️ Danny 心:
Europe, US, SKorea, Japan, China etc have double digit Gini coefficient.
Singapore only 0.375.
This shows that many advanced countries with official poverty line - have very wide gulf of very rich top 1% versus many poor - very high inequality.
As opposed to Singapore whereby income inequality is not very wide.
18/07/2023, 3:09 pm - +~L: What's the other side to the story?
18/07/2023, 3:09 pm - ☸️ Danny 心:
What the other side of the story?
18/07/2023, 3:11 pm - ☸️ Danny 心:
https://idr.lse.ac.uk/articles/56
Inequality in Singapore: The Hidden Poor.
18/07/2023, 3:30 pm - ☸️ Danny 心:
This article written by a UK journalist has overlooked the government redistribution transfer of wealth - to those very poor in Singapore.
18/07/2023, 3:37 pm - +~L: Yes, the social demographic is very different in Singapore and the same measurements don't apply.
18/07/2023, 3:38 pm - ☸️ Danny 心:
https://www.channelnewsasia.com/singapore/budget-2021-heng-swee-keat-forum-record-low-income-inequality-365351
Record low in income inequality due to ‘massive transfers’, schemes tilted towards lower-income groups: Heng Swee Keat.
18/07/2023, 4:00 pm - +REACH: 📢 *Topic* 📢
Singapore’s economy expanded by 0.3 per cent in the second quarter of 2023 from the previous three months, narrowly avoiding a technical recession or two consecutive quarters of contraction. Gross domestic product (GDP) also grew 0.7 per cent year on year in the April-June period, according to advance estimates from the Ministry of Trade and Industry (MTI) on Friday.
Despite dodging a recession, economists were still rather gloomy about the outlook for Singapore’s economy, saying the economy is likely to stay stagnant and recovery is uncertain.
💬 *Are you concerned about the outlook for Singapore's economy? What changes, if any, have you made in your life to deal with current economic conditions?*
Flash estimates showed the manufacturing sector contracted 7.5 per cent year on year in the second quarter, likely on weakness in the global economy and the electronics down cycle. An anticipated recovery in the global electronics industry, especially for semiconductors, appears to have been delayed towards the fourth quarter of 2023 or even early 2024.
On the other hand, recovery in the service sector has offset the manufacturing downturn. The wholesale and retail trade, and transportation and storage sectors collectively grew by 2.6 per cent year on year in the second quarter.
The group of sectors comprising the information and communications, finance and insurance and professional services sectors grew by 1.5 per cent year on year in the second quarter. Accommodation and food services, real estate, administrative and support services and other services expanded by a combined 6.1 per cent year on year. The construction sector grew by 6.6 per cent year on year in the second quarter, extending the 6.9 per cent growth in the first quarter.
👉🏻 https://www.straitstimes.com/business/singapore-avoids-technical-recession-with-economy-growing-03-quarter-on-quarter
👉🏻https://www.channelnewsasia.com/business/advanced-gdp-estimates-economists-gloomy-avoid-technical-recession-3629346
👉🏻 https://www.straitstimes.com/business/singapore-factory-slump-deepens-as-output-shrinks-108-in-may-worse-than-expected
18/07/2023, 4:01 pm - +Caleb: YES, hopefully this year NDR will talk about it
18/07/2023, 4:15 pm - ☸️ Danny 心:
But depending on government transfer and handouts are not sustainable and foolproof way of ensuring income equality.
Social mobility by arming individual household with education and skillsets to secure good jobs with high income are the best way to uplift themselves and their families.
18/07/2023, 4:25 pm - +Jimmy Chew: I understand now in some countries they offer jobs if you reject three times they cut funding because like what you shared these folks are lazy.
18/07/2023, 4:25 pm - +Jimmy Chew: I think they are applying it to those who are able bodied in Singapore if I am not mistaken. Heard someone talk about it
18/07/2023, 4:26 pm - ☸️ Danny 心:
We cannot promote the culture of lazy people.
People are our only resource for survival, progress and prosperity.
18/07/2023, 4:27 pm - +Jimmy Chew: Yeah but you can't bring a horse to water if he doesn't want to
18/07/2023, 4:27 pm - +Jimmy Chew: Or a donkey for that matter
18/07/2023, 4:27 pm - +Jimmy Chew: So I think it has to start from School to encourage self reliance
18/07/2023, 4:28 pm - +Jimmy Chew: In US too much emphasis on freedom. I do what I like which is bad
18/07/2023, 4:28 pm - ☸️ Danny 心:
That's why cannot have policy to feed lazy people.
Official poverty line is such policy.
Giving handouts without merit is one of them.
It will bankrupt our government coffers and brew lazy people.
18/07/2023, 4:29 pm - +Jimmy Chew: Agree agree
18/07/2023, 4:31 pm - +Jimmy Chew: On the other hand we don't know what tragedies this person has gone through. Maybe abuse etc. Issues seems simple but psychologically may be Harder.
18/07/2023, 4:33 pm - ☸️ Danny 心:
Some families with genuine problems and unable to uplift themselves - will require some professional helps.
And most of the time, as long as they are determined enough, they can rise above the difficulties and become self sufficient.
18/07/2023, 4:34 pm - +Jimmy Chew: Yeap. Just need that extra jet pack to zoom them past poverty line
18/07/2023, 4:34 pm - +Frankie Wee: Singapore system no change there is alway as old politics carry the same rule just like zero corruption and integrity such clean politics. But change mindset social of ppl low income support needed.
18/07/2023, 4:36 pm - +Frankie Wee: 1965 constitutional independence are alway reviewing
18/07/2023, 4:36 pm - +Jimmy Chew: I think the government is trying to find a balance of support and independence
18/07/2023, 4:38 pm - +Jimmy Chew: Good that we don't have drugs to contend with. Not like America.. cocaine and now marijuana
18/07/2023, 4:38 pm - Your security code with ~ Sh Koh changed. Tap to learn more.
18/07/2023, 4:38 pm - ☸️ Danny 心:
My 1st project is with the community development in social welfare - and I have seen case officers following through many families of varied types of difficulty.
Some who didn't do well in education, some drug abuse, some cannot find jobs, some come from abusive family, some got financial difficulty.
But those who are determined to emerge from their difficulties are finally able to make it.
Eg. From rental house, they can buy a 1 to 2 room flats. Some find jobs.
Some serve their sentence and emerge from yellow ribbon and join self help group to get jobs for ex-convict eg. Score.
Some victims from abusive family are rescue and put into safe house etc. <This message was edited>
18/07/2023, 4:44 pm - +Frankie Wee: Early day in 2010 so many FT (foreigner Talent or S pass) skill mid level hire more than local their skill can’t competition them job. Over depression without job and not pay wage dissatisfaction.
18/07/2023, 4:44 pm - ☸️ Danny 心:
The main objectives of the social welfare is to provide professional helps to get the less endow to come out of their difficulties, work through it, arm themselves with skillsets and then uplift themselves to be self sufficient and restore their dignities.
By giving them handout mindlessly or misplaced compassion won't help them to help themselves.
It will only made them forever dependence on others, the government, become a burden to the society and bankrupt our Nation.
18/07/2023, 4:44 pm - +Frankie Wee: Boss keep saying foreigner hard work than local what’s point being human stand for singaporean.
18/07/2023, 4:47 pm - +Frankie Wee: No clue
Because they born Singaporean and they right to earn living but no mean lazy.
18/07/2023, 4:49 pm - +Frankie Wee: I hope to see Singapore’s future be useful with AI support human replacement and earn income balance work and lifestyle
less burden and stressed over depression
18/07/2023, 5:58 pm - +REACH: 📢 *Topic* 📢
Singapore’s economy expanded by 0.3 per cent in the second quarter of 2023 from the previous three months, narrowly avoiding a technical recession or two consecutive quarters of contraction. Gross domestic product (GDP) also grew 0.7 per cent year on year in the April-June period, according to advance estimates from the Ministry of Trade and Industry (MTI) on Friday.
Despite dodging a recession, economists were still rather gloomy about the outlook for Singapore’s economy, saying the economy is likely to stay stagnant and recovery is uncertain.
💬 *Are you concerned about the outlook for Singapore's economy? What changes, if any, have you made in your life to deal with current economic conditions?*
Flash estimates showed the manufacturing sector contracted 7.5 per cent year on year in the second quarter, likely on weakness in the global economy and the electronics down cycle. An anticipated recovery in the global electronics industry, especially for semiconductors, appears to have been delayed towards the fourth quarter of 2023 or even early 2024.
On the other hand, recovery in the service sector has offset the manufacturing downturn. The wholesale and retail trade, and transportation and storage sectors collectively grew by 2.6 per cent year on year in the second quarter.
The group of sectors comprising the information and communications, finance and insurance and professional services sectors grew by 1.5 per cent year on year in the second quarter. Accommodation and food services, real estate, administrative and support services and other services expanded by a combined 6.1 per cent year on year. The construction sector grew by 6.6 per cent year on year in the second quarter, extending the 6.9 per cent growth in the first quarter.
👉🏻 https://www.straitstimes.com/business/singapore-avoids-technical-recession-with-economy-growing-03-quarter-on-quarter
👉🏻https://www.channelnewsasia.com/business/advanced-gdp-estimates-economists-gloomy-avoid-technical-recession-3629346
👉🏻 https://www.straitstimes.com/business/singapore-factory-slump-deepens-as-output-shrinks-108-in-may-worse-than-expected
18/07/2023, 6:25 pm - +Smiley face: 18 July, 2023
"Peaking Seasons...?"
High?
If you are hoping for a low cost of productions or back to the good days of cheaper goods or services, perhaps it's highly unlikely! Can we accept that the current prices of food is just there, reaching the equilibrium?
Higher?
The ESG ways of doing business is not only transformative in nature but a new paradigm shift in terms of costings. It will no longer be a low cost strategy; the productivity of raw materials, energy, and labor. These are the equilibriums to reach for.
Highest?
The next 4-6 quarters outlook for the US economy is looking like 1.5%-1.8% real GDP growth, YOY is 2.0%. And its total household wealth is $149T (0.5-2.5%; $2.6T for SG).
Countries that are directly or indirectly trading with the US will feel the tightening effects in various supplies, magnitudes, and sectors like the financials, oil & gas, electronics, uncharted paths.
Will SG continues to perform at 2.3%-2.8% growth into 2024? Yes, a good chance it will even hit 3.0%-3.6% in a single quarter. When, likely in Q4/24? Why so? Keeping a close watch at the early leading economic indicators for G20; Germany, France, India, China & US.
Let's keep our steady hands all on deck!
- - in progress - -
18/07/2023, 6:34 pm - +Smiley face: The US global productivity accelerator is expecting to chunk 1.0% while the total wealth will cross $170Tball within the next 5-7 years outlook. For China, it is harder to estimate and count for these analytics. Will China do as well if not close to it? why so? Or after, China is just too big to fail?
Going forward, do look at the overall corporate balance sheets...
- - in progress - -
18/07/2023, 6:45 pm - +REACH: *Dear Contributors,*
⏰ We will be closing the chat in *15 minutes* ⏰
Thank you very much for being part of our WhatsApp chat and participating actively.
Goodnight!
Megan 😊
18/07/2023, 6:53 pm - +Smiley face: 18 July, 2023
" The Golden Rules of Money"
"Taylor's Principle implies that when inflation rises, the real interest rate should be increased. The idea that the nominal interest rate should be raised "more than one-for-one" to cool the economy when inflation increases (that is increasing the real interest rate) has been called the Taylor principle."
- - John B. Taylor
The day after tomorrow?
Cash-Equities-Bonds, these 3 investment vehicles are yeild driven, given the volatility and uncertainty of the present markets, holding cash in the short term (not too long and not mid/long term) maybe a prudent move solely because of the expected returns from equities and bonds (assuming 4-5% returns) isn't attractive enough to bet on these two and not a safe haven to park one's money. In forex, one nation's currency exchanges with the other nations is another paradigm of change to come, what's the future exchanges among the US-China-Europe-Japan-India be like and who benefits and who will be competitively disadvantaged out of devaluation of their currencies, if it happens? Will some nations currency devalued in folds and gold becoming golden? How about Gold?
In Singapore, so long we continue to enjoy high employment at the same time we continue giving adequate financial assistances to our bottom 10% follows by the next 10% and lastly another 10% of households.
Who's getting what?
This three tier of 10%+10%+10% households, this group is our concern for now and going into 2024.
For the rest of 70% of households, depending on personal savings and employment status, at least half of households will not have financial issues and will able to weather through 2023.
Simply, to provide adequate coverage to our 30% of households while the 70% will have "tier down" minimal helps.
Three unkowns, unless there is global recession, high unemployment, high inflation and or hot war in 2024/25 then the entire social economics supports equation will have to be recounted according to that moment of needs.
- - in progress - -
18/07/2023, 7:01 pm - +REACH: *Dear Contributors,*
We will be closing the chat for today.
Thank you very much for being part of our WhatsApp chat and participating actively.
Goodnight!
Megan 😊
18/07/2023, 7:01 pm - ~ REACH Singapore changed this group's settings to allow only admins to send messages to this group
====
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