By Samia Nakhoul
BEIRUT (Reuters) - President Donald Trump has set out to crush Islamic State when it is already at a low ebb, but Islamists and some analysts say his actions could strengthen the ultra-hardline group by creating new recruits and inspiring attacks on U.S. soil.
IS has been weakened in recent months by battlefield defeats, the loss of territory in Iraq, Syria and Libya, and a decline in its finances and the size of its fighting forces.
Trump's pledge to eradicate "Islamic extremism" looks at first sight to be yet another blow to Islamic State's chances of success.
But Middle East experts and IS supporters say his election triumph could help revive the group's fortunes. They also believe his move late last month to temporarily ban refugees and bar nationals from seven mainly Muslim countries could work in the group's favour. [nL1N1FS03X]
The executive order, on which IS has been silent, is in limbo after being overturned by a judge. But whether or not it is reinstated, it has angered Muslims across the world who, despite Trump's denials, see it as evidence that he and his administration are Islamophobic. [nL5N1FF3TJ]
The White House did not immediately respond to a request for comment on the accusations of Islamophobia. But White House spokesman Sean Spicer said last week: "The president's number one goal has always been to focus on the safety of America, not the religion. He understands that it's not a religious problem."
Denying the travel ban would make the United States less safe, Spicer has said "some people have not read what exactly the order says and are reading it through misguided media reports." [nL1N1FS03D]
Yet such comments have not silenced the criticism.
"The ban on Muslim countries will undoubtedly undermine the global effort to discredit extremists," said Hassan Hassan, a writer on Islamist radicalism and co-author of the 2015 book "ISIS: Inside the Army of Terror".
The Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC), which comprises 57 member states, said such "selective and discriminatory acts will only serve to embolden the radical narratives of extremists." [nL5N1FK2M8]
Jihadists are still celebrating Trump's election triumph in online forums, saying it vindicates their argument that his views show the United States' true face and that his policy will polarise communities, one of the militants' goals.
"It is a blessing from Allah to the Muslims who lost their loyalty and faithfulness and preferred to choose the worldly life with all its luxuries that exists in the apostate land over the land of belief," one jihadist wrote on the Islamist website al-Minbar. [nL4N1FK16F]
DECLINING FORTUNES
IS has in recent months been significantly weakened on many fronts, with the caliphate it has created in parts of Iraq and Syria -- where it has also imposed its ultra-hardline rule on residents -- shrinking.
In Iraq, the group has lost territory in and around its northern stronghold of Mosul since U.S.-backed Iraqi forces last October began the biggest ground operation in the country since the 2003 U.S.-led invasion that toppled Saddam Hussein.
A growing number of disillusioned local Sunnis are now cooperating with the Iraqi army and helping in the fight against Islamic State and its financial resources have been badly hit. Turkey has also sealed its border, denying IS a route for bringing in foreign fighters and smuggling in other goods.
Islamic State's presence in Iraq is mostly concentrated in the north, but it still has significant strongholds such as Tal Afar, to the west of Mosul, and nearby areas such as Al Qaem near the Syrian border. Even so, Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi has said IS will be driven out of the country by April.
IS still holds swathes of Syrian territory and is putting up fierce resistance in Raqqa, its capital in eastern Syria. It still holds around 90 percent of the province of Deir Ez-Zor near the Iraqi border, along with Raqqa and some parts of the eastern countryside of Aleppo in northern Syria. It also controls Palmyra and some pockets in Deraa in the south.
Its opponents in Syria include the Turkish army and Syrian rebel groups northeast of Aleppo. On several fronts it is fighting Syrian government forces supported by the Russian air force and Iranian-backed Shi'ite militia. Syrian President Bashar al-Assad has indicated he sees Trump's views on Islamic State as promising. [nL5N1FS11U]
In Libya, IS has lost control of the Mediterranean port city of Sirte to Libyan forces backed by U.S. air strikes. This defeat deprived the group of its main stronghold in North Africa, though it retains an active presence in other parts of Libya.
The number of IS fighters is now estimated by analysts and experts to be at 20,000 in Iraq and Syria compared with 36,000 in 2014. Since then, a large number of fighters and IS leaders have been killed in air strikes by the U.S.-led coalition and others have been captured by the Iraqi army or fled the country.
STRIKING BACK
Despite the setbacks, Islamic States is putting up fierce resistance and remains a deadly threat to the United States and its Western allies.
IS has started developing lethal alternatives to its caliphate, ranging from rural insurgencies in Syria and Iraq to carrying out attacks in Europe and targeting Western allies across the Middle East from Turkey to Egypt.
Now, some Islamist experts believe, IS may redouble its efforts to strike inside the United States, and replicate the fatal attacks carried out in the last 15 months in Paris, Brussels, Nice, Berlin and Istanbul.
Like al Qaeda before it, IS has long said the West has deep-seated hostility towards Muslims. Over the past decade, this narrative has been a factor in the steady growth of a radical audience in the Middle East and beyond.
Trump's policies will make it a lot easier for the jihadists, says Mokhtar Awad, Research Fellow in the Program on Extremism at George Washington University.
"They will simply double down on the strategy (of attacks) and instead of investing totally in the battlefields they use, they will try even harder than they have already to activate cells in different Middle Eastern and Western countries," Awad said.
"An attack in the U.S., as horrific as it may be, is the perfect thing that will work in their favour to show Trump is weak, and embolden the most exclusionary and xenophobic attitudes that some in this (U.S.) administration may have."
BUILDING COMMUNAL DISTRUST
An important aim of IS strategy is to polarise societies and cause distrust of Muslim neighbours. Experts say IS believes that even if a Muslim does not join the group, he or she will be less inclined to oppose the militants if society is polarised.
Many analysts say the most urgent fight for Islamic State's opponents is a political battle -- how to make the group irrelevant to those who support it now.
Under Trump, who was inaugurated on Jan. 20, Washington has signalled it is looking for partners in the Middle East to take on IS.
In Iraq, U.S. forces, at the forefront of the Mosul campaign, are in practice aligned, though not allied, with Iran, whose influence with Baghdad's Shi'ite-dominated government could increase if measures such as the U.S. entry ban go ahead or are reinstated.
In Syria, U.S. forces are relying on Syrian Kurdish fighters to encircle Raqqa. But this has upset NATO ally Turkey, which sees the Syrian Kurd militia as identical to Turkish Kurd insurgents it regards as terrorists. The United States and European Union list them as terrorist groups.
Trump's overtures to President Vladimir Putin suggest Russia and the United States could become closer in the fight against IS, though many of their goals and allies are different.
This potentially budding relationship could also be an opportunity for IS. Analysts say it has already come to see Russia's alliance with Shi'ite Iran as a recruiting tool because it has caused such anger among some Muslims.
(Additional reporting by Tom Perry, Editing by William Maclean and Timothy Heritage)
Trump risks deeper entanglement in Yemen's murky war
- Posted 07 Feb 2017 21:25
- Updated 07 Feb 2017 21:48
Women walk past a graffiti, denouncing strikes by U.S. drones in Yemen, painted on a wall in Sanaa, Yemen February 6, 2017. REUTERS/Khaled Abdullah
DUBAI: Yemen is emerging as a test ground for U.S. President Donald Trump's forceful approach to al Qaeda and Iran, but his first actions there risk drawing his administration further into its convoluted two-year-old war.
A U.S. raid last month killed several al Qaeda militants but also left a Navy SEAL and several civilians dead, while the deployment of a destroyer to patrol the Red Sea coast drew the ire of Yemen's Houthi movement, an ally of Iran.
The flurry of operations since Trump took power on Jan. 20 included three drone strikes on suspected al Qaeda militants and increased logistical support for a Saudi-led campaign against the Houthis that began under his predecessor Barack Obama.
Washington has long supported the exiled Yemeni government against its Houthi and al Qaeda foes, who are also fighting each other. But Trump's more muscular approach may have unintended consequences, analysts and Yemeni officials warn, reversing efforts by Obama to achieve a peace deal and firing up two organisations hostile to U.S. interests.
"Rather than advancing a political solution that almost everyone agrees is the only way to solve the conflict, it seems the Trump administration's actions are just adding fuel to the fire," said Adam Baron, a Yemen expert at the European Council on Foreign relation.
Reacting to the Navy SEAL raid, a Yemeni tribal leader said: "If they had just bombed the place it would have been much easier and less risky, but it looks like Trump is trying to say 'I'm a man of action'."
"It looks like the new President has watched a lot of Steven Seagal movies," he added, referring to the action film star.
"PROXY TERRORIST"
Seizing the capital Sanaa, the Houthis drove out the internationally recognised government in 2015 and now control most population centres in the largely desert and mountainous country at the tip of the Arabian Peninsula.
The Shi'ite Islamist movement, which denies receiving any military aid from Iran, portrays Washington as an aggressor in the war that has killed over 10,000 people and unleashed mass hunger and disease.
The latest U.S. actions risk fuelling that narrative.
After the Houthis attacked a Saudi frigate off the Red Sea coast last week, U.S. officials said the destroyer USS Cole - the same vessel that was attacked by al Qaeda off Yemen in 2000, with the loss of 17 sailors - had arrived at the nearby Bab al-Mandab Strait to protect international waterways.
Trump's new national security adviser Michael Flynn then accused the Houthis of being one of Iran's "proxy terrorist groups" - a label the last administration and even Saudi Arabia had avoided in hopes of reviving stalled Yemeni peace talks.
Ahmed Hamed, information minister for the pro-Houthi authorities in Sanaa, fired back that the deployment was part of an Israeli-American plot to weaken Yemen's patriotic resistance and empower militant groups.
"America and Israel are seeking to enable al Qaeda and Islamic State in the Bab al-Mandab," he said, dismissing what he called a "public relations tempest about Iranian meddling."
While former Secretary of State John Kerry repeatedly visited the Gulf to try to seal an elusive deal between the Houthis and their government foes, the lack of any explicit commitment by Trump to those efforts could bode ill.
"The Iranians would love to see the Americans caught in a quagmire in Yemen, and vague talk of imposing red lines - in this case on Iranian behaviour - may not end well," said Baron.
"HE FOUGHT THE HOUTHIS"
Pro-government forces backed by Saudi Arabia are fighting Houthi loyalists in battlefronts stretching throughout Yemen and across its knotted array of armed tribal and militant groups.
It was into this explosive environment that U.S. Navy SEALs rappelled on a moonless night on Jan. 29, engaging in a firefight that killed several suspected al Qaeda militants in a southern village.
By daylight, one of the commandos had been killed and local medics said women and children were among some 30 dead Yemenis, allegations the United States said it was investigating.
Though al Qaeda claimed one of the dead, Abdulraoof al-Dhahab, as one of their "martyrs", some officials on the government side denied that and said he was an important partner with local tribes in battles against the Houthis.
"Trump must have launched the raid without enough information - Abdulraoof was a good, honest man, not with al Qaeda. He fought the Houthis," a local tribal leader and security official told Reuters.
Some see a risk that the armed incursion could alienate local opinion and even encourage al Qaeda recruitment.
"The raid ignores the local political context, to the detriment of an effective counter-terrorism strategy," April Longley Alley of the International Crisis Group wrote in a report last week.
Such commando actions risk bolstering al Qaeda's "narrative of the need to violently oppose what they claim is a U.S. war against Muslims," she warned.
- Reuters
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