REACH 264 - View on easing of Phase 2HA and vaccinated-differentiated approach (SK)
11 Aug 2021 (10am - 7pm)
REACH
[11:14 am, 11/08/2021] +REACH: Dear contributors,
Welcome back! 😊
⏰ We will be opening the chat from 11:20am to 7pm today. ⏰
House Rules (short version of our Terms of Use) to keep in mind:
1. Be kind and respectful. We all want to be in a safe space to share our views.
2. Any and all threatening, abusive, vulgar or racially, religiously and ethnically objectionable content is prohibited.
3. Consider the quiet ones among us and give them a chance to comment.
4. No need to repeat your comment or in different forms (including caps) - we heard you loud and clear the first time.
5. Let’s protect each other’s privacy and keep contact details in this group what it should always be - confidential.
Full set of Terms of Use: https://go.gov.sg/reach-whatsapp-terms
We will strive to uphold these rules to ensure this is a safe space for all.
Please be assured that the points made by participants during the chat are aggregated and shared with relevant agencies.
The topic will be posted shortly.
Thank you
Megan 😊
[11:18 am, 11/08/2021] +REACH: 📢 Topic 📢
The easing of the Phase 2 (Heightened Alert) measures kicked in yesterday (10 Aug). Fully vaccinated individuals may now dine-in at F&B outlets and participate in indoor mask-off high intensity sport activities in groups of 5. For hawker centres and coffee shops, both unvaccinated and vaccinated individuals may dine-in in groups of 2. Group gathering size has also increased from 2 persons to 5 persons.
💬 How do you feel about the easing of the Phase 2 (Heightened Alert) measures, as Singapore adopts a careful step-by-step reopening of our economy? What do you think about the vaccination-differentiated approach?
These eased measures comes on the back of Singapore’s good progress in our vaccination rates. As of 10 Aug, 72 per cent of our population have been fully vaccinated and are better protected against COVID-19.
Singapore continues to push ahead in its vaccination campaign. More than 100 doctors and nurses have stepped forward over the National Day weekend to assist with home vaccination efforts. Two #IGotMyShot publicity trucks are also making their rounds to spread the message of vaccination to seniors who may not read the papers, use social media or talk to friends and family members.
MOH also said that new stock of Sinovac's Covid-19 vaccine is expected to arrive in the next four to six weeks. A total of 170,000 doses from the Government's existing stock have already been set aside for 31 approved healthcare institutions here. This will allow 85,000 people to receive the vaccine free of charge.
Should the COVID-19 situation remain under control, the next easing of measures will take place on 19 Aug, allowing a further increase in event sizes. Up to half of employees will also be allowed return to their workplace.
👉 https://www.straitstimes.com/singapore/health/dine-in-to-resume-more-can-work-from-office-all-about-singapores-2-step-easing-of
👉 https://www.straitstimes.com/singapore/health/new-covid-19-cases-in-singapore-fall-for-fifth-day-in-a-row-with-11-in-icu
👉 https://www.straitstimes.com/singapore/health/more-than-100-doctors-and-nurses-have-signed-up-to-join-home-vaccination-efforts
👉 https://www.straitstimes.com/singapore/health/seniors-get-jabs-after-covid-19-vaccination-teams-go-to-the-heartland
👉 https://www.straitstimes.com/singapore/health/new-stock-of-sinovacs-covid-19-vaccine-to-arrive-in-4-to-6-weeks-all-200000-doses
----
[11:23 am, 11/08/2021] +Caleb: Great. Felt very good about it
[11:29 am, 11/08/2021] +Jack: Hi can anyone advice for senior on long term visit pass already did 2 doses of AZ vaccination overseas with available certificates, Is there a system to update? It is still require to quarantine at designated facility?
[11:31 am, 11/08/2021] +KS Foong: I think a test is still required if u have the oversea vaccination certificate. Only passing the test than the vaccination record can be updated.
[11:32 am, 11/08/2021] +Jack: What kind of test and where can it be done?
[11:32 am, 11/08/2021] +Caleb: https://www.moh.gov.sg/news-highlights/details/updates-on-vaccination-records
[11:40 am, 11/08/2021] +Jack: Thanks for the information. There are some information I am not sure “can visit private clinic onboard” does it mean on arrival?
“ upon the positive serology result. The individual’s vaccination record will subsequently reflect on HealtHub” for long term pass also can see?
[11:43 am, 11/08/2021] +Caleb: https://www.moh.gov.sg/covid-19/vaccination/faqs---post-vaccination-matters
[11:46 am, 11/08/2021] +Ben: Fantastic, on all levels. Proud of Sg Gov, and all the people who are getting vaccinated. Especially the elderly who might be feeling nervous about it.
[11:46 am, 11/08/2021] +Ben: Just want to see under 12s given the chance now, and for easing of travel so we don't have a 14 day quarantine. Reduced to 5 day with negative tests makes sense.
[11:47 am, 11/08/2021] +Ben: It's good they recognise the different vaccinations too, and makes the differentiated approach much 'fairer'
[11:54 am, 11/08/2021] +Jack: Hi thanks for the information. The FAQs does not have information about when doing the serology test while waiting gor the result do we need to be quarantine?
[11:55 am, 11/08/2021] +Jack: I have been calling hotlines very difficult to get phone pick up
[11:55 am, 11/08/2021] +Caleb: I rem need. The most is SHN can be applied to do at home.
[11:56 am, 11/08/2021] +Caleb: They need to hire more ppl. @+65 6336 7926
[11:56 am, 11/08/2021] +Jack: If stay at home about the family and children still can go school and work?
[11:56 am, 11/08/2021] +Caleb: I thought all info can be found https://safetravel.ica.gov.sg/
[11:57 am, 11/08/2021] +Caleb: Can. The person must be alone with attached toilet
[11:57 am, 11/08/2021] +Caleb: That's what I thought..
[11:57 am, 11/08/2021] +Jack: Oh.. that’s will be good
[0:03 pm, 11/08/2021] +Jack: Thanks
[0:33 pm, 11/08/2021] ☸️ Danny 心:
https://sg.news.yahoo.com/delta-variant-renders-herd-immunity-165744208.html
Delta variants cannot rely on herd immunity to curb it.
100% vaccination is required.
And 100% vaccination can only be achieved by mandatory vaccination.
[0:33 pm, 11/08/2021] ☸️ Danny 心:
https://sg.news.yahoo.com/mythical-covid-jab-result-herd-immunity-warns-top-vaccine-boss-160028483.html
Herd immunity is not possible with Delta variants.
Only 100% vaccination is needed.
[0:33 pm, 11/08/2021] ☸️ Danny 心:
https://sg.news.yahoo.com/herd-immunity-not-possibility-falling-164629331.html
Herd immunity not possible.
100% vaccination is needed.
[0:34 pm, 11/08/2021] ☸️ Danny 心:
MoEnv Grace Fu echo what I say in REACH (6Aug2021) in channel 8 interview today 10Aug2021 at 7pm.
Even with 10% unvaccinated, 500,000 over people will be unvaccinated.
Given Delta variants high transmission rate, it will still be dangerous for Singapore.
That means, the government will likely not able to tolerate 90% vaccination and will likely shoot for 100% vaccination.
Look like to achieve 100% vaccination, mandatory vaccination can only achieve this target.
[0:41 pm, 11/08/2021] +Ken Loh: https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2021/07/23/delta-variant-pfizer-covid-vaccine-39percent-effective-in-israel-prevents-severe-illness.html
Got use? Lol
[0:43 pm, 11/08/2021] ☸️ Danny 心:
Spread not much use.
But protection from serious illness and death - vaccination got used.
[0:43 pm, 11/08/2021] ☸️ Danny 心:
Thus 100% vaccination is necessary.
[0:43 pm, 11/08/2021] ☸️ Danny 心:
That's why 100% vaccination is extremely important.
Because the ability of Delta variants jumping host will be less and less if all are vaccinated.
Then less people will succumb to serious illness.
[0:44 pm, 11/08/2021] +Ken Loh: We shall see it works so well in very near future
[0:47 pm, 11/08/2021] ☸️ Danny 心:
https://sg.yahoo.com/news/singaporean-man-63-dies-covid-4th-fatality-5-days-155434884.html 4 unvaccinated death in 5 days.
[0:47 pm, 11/08/2021] ☸️ Danny 心:
https://www.channelnewsasia.com/world/covid-19-delta-variant-vaccine-transmit-2097036
Current vaccines shows that they can prevent serious illness and death.
But they cannot stop spreading the Delta variants.
Fully vaccinated people can easily transmit Delta variants similar to those unvaccinated.
[0:47 pm, 11/08/2021] ☸️ Danny 心:
42 death in Singapore are unvaccinated.
[0:50 pm, 11/08/2021] +Elena Woo: https://sg.news.yahoo.com/nowhere-near-end-covid-pandemic-top-scientist-warns-153822323.html
Why is Singapore announcing to move into endemic when scientists say it is only beginning of pandemic?
[0:50 pm, 11/08/2021] +Elena Woo: 100% vac is not possible unless infants and young children below 12 yrs old are included.. this means 100% vac is still a long way to go.
[0:51 pm, 11/08/2021] +Ken Loh: Beginning for the rest of the world..
our side we assume based on vaccination rate… but Israel don’t seems to be going down… with high vaccination rate still cases 3 weeks ago 1.3k now is 3k daily
[0:51 pm, 11/08/2021] ☸️ Danny 心:
100% vaccination for elderly and all adults who are medically eligible.
[0:54 pm, 11/08/2021] +Ken Loh: Even if 100% we cannot let our guard down.. Israel yes go down at the start now is climbing again…
Likely our side will follow similar trend as we open up
[0:55 pm, 11/08/2021] ☸️ Danny 心:
Mask still need to be up.
[0:55 pm, 11/08/2021] +Ken Loh: Vaccination don’t means immune, lighter don’t means won’t die if you are with many underlying illness
[0:55 pm, 11/08/2021] +Elena Woo: But those young children and infants also can spread and create clusters in schools, child care centres, tuition centres etc.
[0:55 pm, 11/08/2021] +Ken Loh: At the rate seems like for a very long time or permanent 🤦🏻♂️
[0:56 pm, 11/08/2021] ☸️ Danny 心:
Vaccination is the baseline.
Mask is the baseline.
This will be the new normal.
[0:56 pm, 11/08/2021] +Elena Woo: I dun think we shd move into endemic unless we can cover 100% vac incl babies and young children. It is like we are "celebrating" too early
[0:56 pm, 11/08/2021] ☸️ Danny 心:
Until infant vaccination is ready.
[0:56 pm, 11/08/2021] +Laurent: https://www.scmp.com/magazines/post-magazine/article/3144486/larry-brilliant-eradicator-smallpox-proposes-ring
[0:57 pm, 11/08/2021] +Elena Woo: Ya. Before that, we shd not even consider to relax measures and move into endemic.
[0:57 pm, 11/08/2021] ☸️ Danny 心:
Now we are not in endemic.
We are transiting to endemic.
While we make the rest vaccinate.
[0:57 pm, 11/08/2021] +Ken Loh: Not in the near future…
[0:57 pm, 11/08/2021] +Ken Loh: It takes years to reach that stage
[0:58 pm, 11/08/2021] +Elena Woo: Should not even consider transiting to endemic
[0:58 pm, 11/08/2021] +Ken Loh: No company will dare to approve for infant at such early stage
[0:58 pm, 11/08/2021] +Suma pamu: https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/fauci-children-covid-vaccine-delta-b1899434.html?utm_content=Echobox&utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Facebook#Echobox=1628581203
[0:58 pm, 11/08/2021] +Elena Woo: Then shd not transit into endemic.
[0:59 pm, 11/08/2021] +Elena Woo: What i mean is unless the younger can get vaccination, govt should not even consider transiting into endemic
[1:23 pm, 11/08/2021] ☸️ Danny 心:
With the world so interconnected and people move around easily unlike the people in 1960s who do not have mordern transportation - how does the ring vaccination prevent covid?
[1:23 pm, 11/08/2021] +Jospeh Ong: I think the G is taking the stance that, with evidence that the fully vaccinated do not fall seriously ill and/or viral load when infected is much lower, recovery rate faster and with less signs of long term harm, counting the number of infected is no longer relevant.
More important to monitor and report the % of the fully vaccinated who fall seriously ill. If this number is low, I think we can quite safely assume we are approaching endemic status.
So, while Israel may be reporting higher infection rates, the more important data to watch is how ill these people are. Has the vaccines been effective in protecting us to the extend that CV19 infections are now similar to catching influenza/common flu/cold
[1:25 pm, 11/08/2021] +Jospeh Ong: Think it would help if the G would release more info about the effects of catching CV19 on younger unvaccinated children. At least let us know what they already know now.
[1:26 pm, 11/08/2021] ☸️ Danny 心:
Transiting to endemic - is a balancing act of safeguarding lives and livelihood.
Yesterday I went to a food court, 4 stalls permanently closed - as they can no longer sustain their business with periodic lockdown.
[1:33 pm, 11/08/2021] ☸️ Danny 心:
1. Ring vaccination won't work in our dense population and well connected transport system - where human are extremely mobile.
2. Achieving herd immunity eg 80% or 90% vaccination is no longer possible given the transmissibility of Delta variants and vaccine not able to stop spreading - hence 100% vaccination is imperative.
3. Purpose of 100% vaccination is to transform the deadly Delta variants into a mild illness - so that we and the economy can continue to function in a new normal - as people will less likely to succumb into serious illness or death.
[1:35 pm, 11/08/2021] +Alvin Lim: Singapore must be prepared for more Covid-19 infections, deaths with reopening: Ong Ye Kung
https://www.straitstimes.com/singapore/health/singapore-must-be-prepared-for-more-covid-19-infections-deaths-with-reopening
[1:36 pm, 11/08/2021] +Alvin Lim: Old news but some feedback on this
[1:36 pm, 11/08/2021] +Alvin Lim: I know it’s cold hard facts but saying it like this reeks of “Growth At All Costs”
[1:38 pm, 11/08/2021] +Alvin Lim: When is needed is to reassure that gov will take care of the infected and it’s no fault of their own when they get infected (exclude ktv buggers 😡). Treatment and medical will be provided and fully cover those who fall seriously ill, etc
[1:38 pm, 11/08/2021] +Alvin Lim: My 2.14 cents
[1:38 pm, 11/08/2021] +Jospeh Ong: I read this to mean vaccination alone may not be sufficient, rather than vaccination is of no use.
[1:38 pm, 11/08/2021] +Caleb: among the unvaccinated
[1:42 pm, 11/08/2021] +Laurent: https://www.technologynetworks.com/informatics/news/blood-glucose-levels-hold-key-to-severity-of-covid-19-351789
[1:44 pm, 11/08/2021] +Smiley face: 11 August, 2021
To: Distinguished MTF, DMS And All Honorable Members
"BE OVERLY PREPARED and HOPE FOR THE BEST..... many things in life are BEYOND ONES CONTROL, at the minimum - BE WELL PREPARED!"
Assumption:
Given a highly mobile and transiting population. A country with 80% 85% fully vaccinated with all WHO approved brands of vaccine, unable to CONTAIN nor SURPRESS the current variant, this case D & D+ TOWARDS a level of minimal CONCERN.
Scenario:
Prize of the fully vaccinated human - -
a reduce chance of severe and death if one should caught this CURRENT strain of mutated covid.
Productivity - -
a country economics activities will be compromised as long as the strain of today or tomorrows cannot be SURPRESS or CONTAIN to a significant metrics of medical and social comfort.
Summary:
A cautiously optimistic view - -
Preliminary accessments learned from countries like Israel to UK, we see a spectrum of similar results from mild to death. Therefore, going forward into December Q4 of 2021, it will be a upward climb from this big & broad hole (compared to 2020) which vaccines of all brands have yet to successfully bounch out of this pitfall of infectious and infecting.
[1:45 pm, 11/08/2021] +Caleb: Default WFH until end of the year will be better
[1:45 pm, 11/08/2021] +Caleb: To minimize footfall
[1:46 pm, 11/08/2021] +Smiley face: Caleb, ideally speaking, however it will mess up the economics.
A tough decision for all of us to seriously THINK and hopefully come up with solutions.
[1:47 pm, 11/08/2021] +Smiley face: A brief papers will be presented, soon, footfalls and more....
[1:48 pm, 11/08/2021] +CQ: Yes, that's the undertone which I felt as well. Even for PM's National Day message, the part which didn't sit quite well for me was "thankfully the fatalities are low", which felt rather callous to the families of the 42 patients who had passed away. Because one death is one too many. I know the message is to vaccinate, but it would have sounded better if he had said "i am saddened by the 42 fatalities even though it's not a big number". The subsequent message of having to reopen borders also did no favours in the messaging that "we're moving on with the economy with or without you. If you die, that's a sacrifice I'm willing to make for the economy".
[1:49 pm, 11/08/2021] +Kevin: No thanks. This one will have many Jiak Liao bee people around. Get free salary doing nothing while those in office slog like siao who don’t want. I also want.
[1:50 pm, 11/08/2021] +CQ: So as much as I understand the need to move forward and the drive to vaccinate, perhaps the message could've been framed a little better and more sensitively.
[1:51 pm, 11/08/2021] +CQ: But jiak liao bees had been there from way before what. Come in at 9, 9.30 go coffee break until 10.30, 12pm go lunch, 2pm come back, 3pm tea break, 5.30 go home. And interspersed with smoke breaks and toilet breaks.
[1:54 pm, 11/08/2021] +Alvin Lim: For the easing of P2HA, many Singaporeans welcome it. I would say business would be strongly welcoming it more than shoppers. From the perspective of a step-by-step approach, it's very well calibrated and what I call "cautiously optimistic" planning.
[1:55 pm, 11/08/2021] +Alvin Lim: For the Vaccinated Differentiated policy, it's still too early to tell. But my gut feel is, it might cause social issues if not handled properly.
[1:55 pm, 11/08/2021] +Smiley face: For PHYSICAL OFFICE,
Can we apply 80-20 rule - - 80% daily attendance. 20% WFH
Assuming 5 days work week, a rotational cycle of 5
[1:56 pm, 11/08/2021] +Elena Woo: Ya it gives the impressions that growth is more important than lives.
[1:58 pm, 11/08/2021] +Fulgrim: Vaccine doesn't not protect u from being infected, just lowers rhe risk of serious symptoms
[1:58 pm, 11/08/2021] +Smiley face: When one DIVIDES, onr needs to MULTIPLES back
When one minuses, one needs to ADD alot back!!!
[1:59 pm, 11/08/2021] ☸️ Danny 心:
Transiting to endemic - to balance lives and livelihood.
Part 1. Vaccination is a pre-requisite.
a. To transit to endemic - vaccination is a baseline, a pre-requisite - because it is the only way to prevent developing into serious illness and death - and thus prevent the overwhelming of the hospital resources.
b. Achieving herd immunity is no longer a possible method to stop Delta variants given its high transmissibility and vaccinated people can still spread the virus.
c. Vaccination hence need to be re-puposed to transform the deadly Delta variants or other strains into mild illness.
d. Hence, 2 step-approach to coax and cajole our residents to vaccinate become imperative and and urgent goal to achieve :-
i. Using differentiated treatment for vaccinated serve 2 purposes :-
- One - protect those unvaccinated from being infected and sucuumb to serious illness or death by liimting their exposure.
- Two - by coaxing and cajoling the unvaccinated to vaccinate so as to protect themselves from being infected, fall very sick or death and overwhelm the hospital resources.
My close friend comments :-
When economy open up, people need to take meals outside. It will be a pain if their choices are limited to hawker centres and coffee shops. Not so easy in town areas. Lots of eating places are not classified as coffee shops and hawker centres. Even where coffeeshops or hawker centres are available, they are few and far in between.
Thus those unvaccinated people on the fringe - will just get themsevles vaccinated to prevent all the inconvenience and trouble.
ii. When differentiated treatment has push or persuade the unvaccinated fringe to vaccinate - what is left are those harden group that bend on not vaccinating. Hence a harder approach is needed (that have been adopted by some Countries including US - ie. Mandatory Vaccination).
- US FDA will be annoucing mRNA vaccines to be the full and final approval vaccines to tackle the covid-19 virus in this month or early next month. US hence has been annoucing Mandatory Vaccination by various US States, Armed Forces, Schools, Businesses.
- Hence if the mRNA vaccines have been endorsed as final and full approval - Singapore should seriously consider Mandatory Vaccination - once differentiated treatment has achieved its goal and can no longer persuade the last harden group to vaccinate.
- But noted that the infant 12 years old and below are still on vaccine trial and not yet ready to be vaccinated - special care is needed to ensure that school children are not exposed to undue risk - until the vaccine for infants are ready.
[2:00 pm, 11/08/2021] +Fulgrim: Lol. Well said . It's the attitude, not the mode of working. If they can only work with the boss watching all the time then there is a serious problem
[2:04 pm, 11/08/2021] +Smiley face: -5....0....+5
Is a TEN steps of pain and process, both ways, a continuum numbers game!
[2:04 pm, 11/08/2021] +Kevin: Better than do nothing at all
[2:06 pm, 11/08/2021] +Ben: Why keep the people who are doing nothing?
[2:07 pm, 11/08/2021] +Alvin Lim: Unfortunately, in the office also is jiak liao bee lol
[2:08 pm, 11/08/2021] +Alvin Lim: I rather default WFH as what Caleb mention
[2:12 pm, 11/08/2021] +Desmond: Nothing personal but guess u are working from office hence if u have the opportunity:
Please try working from home with kids, starting from 9 all the way till 9pm.. back to back meeting on zoom, Teams or Webex and after 630, start to clear your emails the piles up during meetings.
While religion is prohibited topics, just saying, I’m a Buddhist, so karma is a (fill in ur blank) 😏
[2:14 pm, 11/08/2021] +Rama: Agree
[2:17 pm, 11/08/2021] +Sean: Agree too
[2:18 pm, 11/08/2021] +Ken Loh: WFH no OT, executive no OT when WFH 😭😭
[2:19 pm, 11/08/2021] +Ken Loh: Work hours is longer and no clear line between work
[2:19 pm, 11/08/2021] +Rama: Yes
[2:19 pm, 11/08/2021] +Rama: Exactly!
[2:21 pm, 11/08/2021] ☸️ Danny 心:
https://www.channelnewsasia.com/world/covid-19-italy-police-bust-telegram-health-pass-scheme-2102046
Italy get tough on health pass.
Even travel on train, coach, ships and planes need health pass. Else cannot travel.
As good as making vaccination mandatory.
[2:21 pm, 11/08/2021] ☸️ Danny 心:
https://www.channelnewsasia.com/world/france-covid-19-paris-virus-pass-qr-code-2101871
France required people to show covid vaccination pass - before can travel on train or eat in restaurants.
Else cannot travel or eat.
Almost as good as mandatory vaccination.
[2:21 pm, 11/08/2021] ☸️ Danny 心:
https://www.straitstimes.com/asia/east-asia/hk-leader-carrie-lam-urges-community-to-get-vaccinated-before-next-covid-19-wave-hits HK use the pay-for-your-own-test or get free vaccination.
[2:21 pm, 11/08/2021] ☸️ Danny 心:
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/workers-fired-being-unvaccinated-may-145759775.html
In US, get vaccinated or get ready to be fired by the boss - & cannot get unemployment benefits.
Double whammy.
[2:23 pm, 11/08/2021] ☸️ Danny 心:
The above countries like USA, Spain, Italy and HK get tough with unvaccinated - using either differentiated treatment or mandatory vaccination to get people to vaccinate.
This support my hypothesis in part 1 - vaccination is a baseline and prerequisite in our fight to defeat covid-19 pandemic.
[2:24 pm, 11/08/2021] +Sean: Indeed some of us may also need to bring work back home after office hour. Hence believed company culture is important to discourage working after office hour, however believe that this only in our dream 😅
[2:25 pm, 11/08/2021] +Ken Loh: Totally burn out…
[2:25 pm, 11/08/2021] +Ken Loh: When those was saying so good can WFH
[2:25 pm, 11/08/2021] +Ken Loh: I tell them try WFH then you know 🥲
[2:25 pm, 11/08/2021] +Ben: https://www.channelnewsasia.com/commentary/china-tuition-singapore-psle-2096706
[2:26 pm, 11/08/2021] +Ben: Off topic, but relevant to last week's debate.
[2:27 pm, 11/08/2021] +CQ: My point is that the ones who will work will still work regardless where they are, the jiak liao bees will laze even with the boss around. It's about personal work ethics, not about where you're physically doing the work.
[2:28 pm, 11/08/2021] +Jospeh Ong: I think WFH is actually tougher than going into the office.
As for the jiak liao bee ones, WFH forces the Employers to access whether the person is needed or not. I actually think its harder to proof that you are still doing your job when WFH. if they are not careful, they end up proving that the company can actually function without their input 😅
[2:28 pm, 11/08/2021] +Rama: Agree
[2:28 pm, 11/08/2021] +Ben: Exactly
[2:28 pm, 11/08/2021] +CQ: Some execs even OT in office also can't claim lah... Because of some people that laze during office hours and then pretend to stay late cos "aiyoh so busy" just to claim OT
[2:30 pm, 11/08/2021] +Ken Loh: If WFH still need to OT, you think is no need meh?
Yes sometime do laze around but you need to recharge.. at work can chit chat destress a bit at home you and yourself 😔
[2:33 pm, 11/08/2021] +Desmond: Also to add on, last year my 18 days still there, this year 18 days still around 😂
[2:35 pm, 11/08/2021] +CQ: I feel that the pace at home is more manageable. I clock longer hours, that's true, but I don't get interrupted by phone calls and chats as much. In office it's annoying with the colleagues sometimes, and even if the disruption is just a couple of minutes, it breaks your rhythm especially if you're trying to draft or review a long document.
[2:36 pm, 11/08/2021] +Ken Loh: Try having kids lol
[2:37 pm, 11/08/2021] +Rama: Exactly
[2:37 pm, 11/08/2021] +CQ: And that's why I don't! Maybe that's why WFH works better for me. I'm more productive and less tired cos I don't spend time commuting through rush hour traffic
[2:37 pm, 11/08/2021] +Rama: To each their own
[2:40 pm, 11/08/2021] +Ken Loh: Lol come out Liao cannot push back in 🤣
Oh well, less commuting yes.
Productive not really
[2:40 pm, 11/08/2021] +CQ: 🤣 Yah, this one no return policy
[2:43 pm, 11/08/2021] +Ken Loh: Oh well to me is worth it… hence the little one.. less sleep yes , less alone time yes.
To me is a life milestone that I don’t mind having. They are just so cute 🥰
But I know not for everyone
[2:44 pm, 11/08/2021] +Ken Loh: Cause still very young so no childcare for it as well 😅
[3:43 pm, 11/08/2021] ☸️ Danny 心:
Oh your anti-vaxx message again.
[3:45 pm, 11/08/2021] ☸️ Danny 心:
https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-wales-58150247
Wrexham father in intensive care after refusing Covid vaccine
[3:45 pm, 11/08/2021] ☸️ Danny 心:
Many examples of such cases.
Refusing vaccines is foolhardy given the transmissibility of the Delta variants.
Thus we must not give up and be relenting to persuade people to vaccinate - using whatever means.
Whether differentiated treatment or compulsory vaccination.
[3:45 pm, 11/08/2021] ☸️ Danny 心:
https://sg.news.yahoo.com/family-refused-covid-vaccine-die-101252329.html
Family who refuse vaccination fall to misinformation - die within days of each other.
[3:46 pm, 11/08/2021] ☸️ Danny 心:
If more people die because of anti-vaxx messages discouraging people from vaccinating - then let your conscience be accountable for it.
[3:47 pm, 11/08/2021] ☸️ Danny 心:
University to stop unvaccinated students and staff from entering Hong Kong campus in Covid-19 crackdown
http://www.asiaone.com/china/university-stop-unvaccinated-students-and-staff-entering-hong-kong-campus-covid-19-crackdown?utm_source=mobileapp&utm_medium=social-media&utm_campaign=native-share
[3:50 pm, 11/08/2021] ☸️ Danny 心:
https://sg.yahoo.com/news/hospitalised-father-struggles-breathe-videos-174745277.html
An anti-vaxx guy beg people to get vaccinated - as he struggle to breathe after contracting covid.
[3:50 pm, 11/08/2021] ☸️ Danny 心:
https://sg.yahoo.com/news/teachers-union-president-says-she-173323116.html US teachers union president say she support Mandatory Vaccination.
[3:50 pm, 11/08/2021] ☸️ Danny 心:
https://sg.yahoo.com/news/fauci-worries-south-dakota-motorcycle-191614237.html Dr Fauci say - without quickly vaccinating the population - possibility of new variants may evolve among the vaccinated - that will threaten the majority who are vaccinated.
[3:50 pm, 11/08/2021] ☸️ Danny 心:
https://news.google.com/articles/CAIiEMI-w8zT9qERqO7K83vQoikqFggEKg4IACoGCAowl6p7MN-zCTC9vBU?hl=en-SG&gl=SG&ceid=SG%3Aen
Republican States that see a spike in infection - by refusing to vaccinate and wear mask - shift blame using Trump tactics on immigrants.
[3:54 pm, 11/08/2021] ☸️ Danny 心:
Knife kill one or a few.
Words can kill thousands or millions if misused.
[4:00 pm, 11/08/2021] ☸️ Danny 心:
Part 2 - Mask must remain to be the baseline
1. As we push residents of Singapore to achieve 100% vaccination - mask must be the baseline as long as global covid-19 pandemic is not over and WHO has not declared covid-19 pandemic is over.
2. Masks is a personal safe distancing tool - that block covid virus for infecting people or get infected.
3. Hence, mask must still be make mandatory when people are out in the public.
------
[4:02 pm, 11/08/2021] +Alvin Lim: I 101% agree with Danny on this. Mask is the New Normal.
[4:03 pm, 11/08/2021] +Alvin Lim: I see many people not wearing masks outside these days.
[4:03 pm, 11/08/2021] +Alvin Lim: They only put it on when they get into crowded areas like Trains or Buses. Is that the norm now?
[4:14 pm, 11/08/2021] ☸️ Danny 心:
Part 3 - Treatment drugs or booster that specifically tackle Delta or other variants must be pursue
1. To transit to endemic, treatment drugs or booster that specifically target Delta or other variants must be pursue in order to treat covid or effectively stop covid from spreading and leading to its demise.
2. While vaccines can help to transform covid to mild illness and prevent developing into serious illness or death - and transit into endemic so that Economy can recover, business can open up and jobs can be secured or created ---- treatment drugs to cure covid if people fell ill or booster that can stop covid spread still need to be found or developed --- so that covid can be effectively stop and die off ----- and not let it to be endemic (as it will still pose a threat).
3. Thus we will have 3 very solid tools to protect residents in Singapore if we have :-
a. 100% vaccination as pre-requisite to prevent people from developing into serious illness or death if infected --- so that covid remain a mild illness that does not require treatment or simple treatment and people will heal easily.
b. Effective Mask is used to prevent covid spreading --- as the current vaccines cannot prevent spreading but offer protection.
c. Treatment drug is used to help people recover - if people fall ill despite a. and b. from covid. Booster that can help to make the vaccine more effective in curbing infection and/or spreading - should be considered if efficacy and safety is assured - especially if the booster can tackle all current and future variants.
-----
[4:25 pm, 11/08/2021] ☸️ Danny 心:
Part 4 - Safe distancing measures
1. Safe distancing measures eg. WFH 50% home and office, 1 metre apart, good ventilation, good hygiene, border measures like allowing vaccinated travellers and quarantine for unvaccinated etc ----- will still needed to be put in place - but adjusted up and down depending on circumstances.
2. Safe distancing measures are also contingent on how World Countries infection number, mutations into different strains, vaccination level, opening up of their own borders or "zero tolerance" measures etc.
3. Thus flexibility will be needed as we transit to endemic - to adjust the safe distancing measures.
The higher the vaccination rate we achieved, the more confident we can relax our safe distancing measures.
If we finally achieve 100% vaccination - then the scale of balance between lives and livelihood will shift towards livelihood ----- as lives are mostly safeguarded with Singapore residents vaccinated with protection from serious illness or death.
4. This is the new normal that we should be working to as the endemic state.
------
[4:30 pm, 11/08/2021] +Ben: Sadly, I agree. Mask is the simplest level of safety for all.
[4:58 pm, 11/08/2021] +Ah Heng: hmmm found this assuring information from Ho Ching post ... was this on MOH post as well
[4:58 pm, 11/08/2021] +Ah Heng: For folks who are allergic to their 1st shot of Sinovac, please know that they may not have the same allergies to the mRNA vaccines as their ingredients are different.
They may wish to work with their GP to make an appointment for them, to go to the allergy department of public hospitals for a review to see whether they are suitable for mRNA vaccination, and they can also decide whether to proceed to do their mRNA vaccination at the allergy department for peace of mind and full hospital support.
Those who took one shot of Sinovac at a private clinic, and found themselves having allergies, may similarly explore having their vaccination clinic make a referral to the allergy department of the public hospitals to assess their allergies and supervise their 1st mRNA shot, and possibly their 2nd mRNA shot as well.
[4:59 pm, 11/08/2021] +Ah Heng: such gives the public a better sense of direction on where to go rather than all the pls go vaccine but no alternative route if something happen
[5:00 pm, 11/08/2021] +Ah Heng: the keyword here is ppl can go to allergy dept in hospital for a check up should there be doubts or adverse reaction
[5:09 pm, 11/08/2021] ☸️ Danny 心:
My close friend comments:-
With high vaccinated rates, many people may be going around getting infected and helping to spread without knowing.
We should help to protect those who are not eligible for vaccinations such as children below 12.
Also, vaccinated persons can still be infected and b come seriously ill (although lower risk).
Gov should institutionalize wider and regular surveillance tests to pin down infected persons to prevent widespread transmissions.
If SG doesn't do this, we can't attract travellers and will affect our recovery as a hub.
Overly widespread infection can still overwhelm healthcare.
Else who dare to come to Singapore?
Don't want to keep reporting numbers doesn't mean don't keep track and let it run wild.
[5:14 pm, 11/08/2021] ☸️ Danny 心:
My close friend comments:-
There's no proven path, we just have to find our way out of this predicament
[5:29 pm, 11/08/2021] +Rama: Y
[5:33 pm, 11/08/2021] ☸️ Danny 心:
Note :- smallpox is not defeated by ring vaccination only.
The whole population need to vaccinated up to 80%.
Then used ring vaccination to cover the rest - easily reach up to 90% vaccination.
But smallpox reproduction number is R0 = 5 to 8.
Covid Delta variants R0 = 8 to 9.
US study already say that 80% vaccination and even 90% vaccination is not good enough - as Delta variants can breakthrough from the fully vaccinated.
Hence, 100% vaccination is imperative.
By selling the concept of ring vaccination as the mean to combat covid Delta variants - is thus wrongfully flaw!
[5:40 pm, 11/08/2021] +REACH: 61 new locally transmitted COVID-19 cases in Singapore, including 17 unlinked
https://www.channelnewsasia.com/singapore/covid-19-new-cases-aug-11-locally-transmitted-unlinked-2105066
[5:52 pm, 11/08/2021] ☸️ Danny 心:
My close friend comments:-
Wanted to say, for known clusters easy to test and numbers will appear to come down.
All those unlinked represents reservoirs of troubles.
Unless we can device a way for more widespread testing to identify all these hidden cases.
[5:54 pm, 11/08/2021] +Elena Woo: Ya the unlinked cases are a time bomb.
[5:55 pm, 11/08/2021] ☸️ Danny 心:
Singapore vaccination rate is higher than Israel, UK, and EU.
[5:58 pm, 11/08/2021] ☸️ Danny 心:
Note:- US, Israel, UK and EU did not mandate masks.
Singapore mandate masks.
[6:06 pm, 11/08/2021] +Timothy Low: Been wondering. Why your close friend not in this group since he or she can give insightful comments?
[6:10 pm, 11/08/2021] +james: 🤣 good qn
[6:17 pm, 11/08/2021] ☸️ Danny 心:
Because my close friend wants to contribute anonymously.
Same as me.
If not because REACH WhatsApp needs to reveal the identity, I will still be anonymous.
[6:25 pm, 11/08/2021] +Alvin Lim: I agree with this as well
[6:31 pm, 11/08/2021] ☸️ Danny 心:
Channel 8 news just say 80% herd immunity no longer possible
Mass vaccination is now for protection!
[6:32 pm, 11/08/2021] ☸️ Danny 心:
At 7pm medical experts will dwell in on this topic.
[6:45 pm, 11/08/2021] ☸️ Danny 心:
Let see whether the medical experts recommend 100% vaccination or not.
[6:46 pm, 11/08/2021] +REACH: Dear Contributors,
⏰ We will be closing the chat in 15 minutes ⏰
Thank you very much for being part of our WhatsApp chat and participating actively.
Goodnight!
Megan
[6:49 pm, 11/08/2021] +Kevin: Good night Megan
[6:52 pm, 11/08/2021] +An fan: https://twitter.com/aninaxin/status/1425093470285406230?s=21
[7:00 pm, 11/08/2021] +Smiley face: 11 August, 2021
To: Distinguished MTF, DMS And All Honorable Members
Title:
Crowding, Queueing and Exposures - A Science of Human Geography And A Production Line Approach
Summary:
Change, things have changed and importantly it is hard to unchanged things, it is easier to re-set than to re-pair things!
Twenty months passed, what the world learned from this germ that turns billions inside out of their lives and challenge their livelihoods!
A simple answer, it slows the world! Till a cure and /or the mildest and least lethal strain arrives, the world will continue to live in a state of social chaos and economics disruptions!
Let's go into basics and simple steps, given many safety protocols have been implemented across the developed countries and not so much those developing ones.
Main:
A vantage point, a place has its unique purpose. These purposes will drive human geography, this case footfalls. Each place is purpose-built and each as a set of metric, volume metrics and maximum capacity. Using existing human tracking tools such as the TT token, these big data of human footfalls and their contribution towards economic activities of all spectrum will have an impact on infection and infectious outcomes. Peaking and Rushing behavior are multipliers and a direct effect towards overcrowding of space and place.
We can view the "road maps" as an endemic situation with many strategies to guide the human capital and the production line approach as the stages of planning towards normalcy, the best case scenario 100% capacity! Time is the key in building an upward trend of full capacity.
Socio-Economics Activities:
In road traffic management, it is a electronics & mechanical process using better road infrastructures and road pricing during peak periods that reduced such rush and buzz situations. Human traffic itself is an organic form often hard to forecast and at times out of surprise a crowding effect will happen given simple reasons.
In Social Distancing, one meter apart is a process and a queue line in formation, it is a SLOWING DOWN process of all sorts of human activities. Covid is not a time to build capacity, it is a time to recount what's the safety numbers and overtime given the metrics to nimble the increase according to each situation, clusters and stage of a variant evolvement.
How can we achieve almost optimal operations, we need to implement crowd management and the scientific methods of Q line!
Capacity (production) - -
A given perimeter say a hawker center, there should be a capacity figure that the builder has in hand during the day's of designing it. Gardens and theme parks, especially during weekends, peak hours and event days, crowd management and capacity are a must couple with the standard safety measure protocol. Start relooking at the possible number of patrons at one sitting and standing. By physical counting or through the use of technologies to accurately control the finite figure of optimum safety capacity. Metrics for each public venue will have its set of capacity guideline, human flow and hygiene standards.
Places (human geography) - -
Time and exposures is a bell curve in nature. Holding all other variables constant, the longer the time of exposure will lead to a higher rate of infection. Capacity of a given area is a close relationship on the above two variables - time & exposures.
In a movie, a religious service or a concert. One way to reduce exposure is to perhaps reduce the advertisement time prior to the start of the movie, lessen the accessories and punctuality are keys to all of the above scenarios. For places of religious worshipping, perhaps, subdivide into small capacity to 70% and shorten each religious service time to 80% of a normal service. Increase in available services especially on Saturday and Sunday to smooth out the crowding effect by reducing the original seating capacity to 70%-80%!
For hospital setting, perhaps, nurses and doctors will need to reschedule their number of hours of exposure according to the level of ward risk they currently serve. Overtime work load is an example of skew towards prolong hours of exposure to potential viral infection, this case is COVID 19!
Places of HIGH footfalls may need to be capped on a time based metric, should infected cases arise, these high footfall places will need more aggressive contact tracing compared to other less crowded and importantly FOOTFALL per hour basis ( peak, intermittent, off-peak) as a starter to benchmark and derive a unified metric for capacity capping initiative - key is place to place differs!
Ventilation (volume metrics) - -
A natural clean air subject to the airflow and air quality in a localised area, it can also be created artifically by mechanical and electrical interventions.
Situation A
Open or partial confined space needs time to recirculate the air within the space, the larger these space (volume) the longer times it takes to clear the air. The ventilation is greater in these spaces of utility.
Situation B
For confined space like an aircon environment, it may takes longer time to clear the air within this blocked environment to an acceptable safety level. For bus or train, the early mode tends to have a higher airflow, a higher velocity and intermittent ventilation compare to a train cabin. In the case of a larger space like an office, school, hospital, train station, airport, mall, food court or church/temple, the ventilation cycle is dependant on the airflow and its velocity.
Will a HEPA filter system works? How long it takes for a scheduled cycle cleansing? When to replace such a filter? What other large scale air cleaning system available? Air Extractors?
Situation C
When we broaden both A & B environments to a city, a community or a building, the inter- buildings and the in-between open spaces will be the key in determining a lower or higher ventilated cluster of airflow that will have an impact to the velocity that will determine the cycles of flow on an hourly basis. Much research is needed to derive a confident model of air quality index, this case not haze nor pollutant but pathogens! Possible?
Afterwords:
Predictability and Adaptability:
More than half century of stellar records and successes in the Singapore story, perhaps, two keys attributes are its foresight in predicting and the continuous adaptation of each situation. That's the sweet spot- UNIQUELY Singapore!
On Crowd management:
The numbers of toilets, number of entry and exit, number of stall and store, number of vehicle parking lot and types and access of public transports. The idea of convegent, common grounds and convenience each play vital role in the flow of human traffic and its behavioral sciences of Queueing and Waiting.
Much can be learned from the Tokyo Olympics, how the organising mechanics and technologies used in both indoor and outdoor exposures of events and outcomes, either positive or negative!
The Toyota way or the well known Japanese JIT of manufacturings can be applied to crowd management, businesses and service providers too.
-5..... 0....+5
Is a TEN steps of pain and process, either end, a continuum numbers game!
-- Ian T
- - - END - - -
[7:01 pm, 11/08/2021] +REACH: Dear Contributors,
We will be closing the chat for today.
Thank you very much for being part of our WhatsApp chat and participating actively.
Goodnight!
Megan 😊
=====
No comments:
Post a Comment