Sunday, April 19, 2020

REACH - 56. Foreign workers infections not in dorms (SK)
20 Apr 2020 (12 pm - 10pm)

REACH
[12:00 pm, 20/04/2020] +65 8637 2162: Dear contributors,
Welcome back!
📢Topic📢
Around 180,000 foreign workers in the construction industry and their dependants — including those living in shophouses and Housing Board estates — have been placed on mandatory 14-day stay-home notice (SHN) until May 4.
👉180k foreign workers, dependants to stay home from today: https://www.straitstimes.com/singapore/manpower/180k-foreign-workers-dependants-to-stay-home-from-today
👉Precautionary stay-home notices for work permit and S pass holders in construction sector: https://www.mom.gov.sg/newsroom/press-releases/2020/0418-precautionary-stay-home-notices-for-work-permit-and-s-pass-holders-in-construction-sector
What do you think of these latest Circuit Breaker measures? How do you think we can be more cohesive in our fight against the virus?
👉Campaign to make workers feel welcome in housing estates: https://www.straitstimes.com/singapore/campaign-to-make-workers-feel-welcome-in-housing-estates

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[1:00 pm, 20/04/2020] ☸️  Danny 心:
I think we need to think of how to tackle those not in dorm.
This is another cross infection clusters.

[1:00 pm, 20/04/2020] ☸️  Danny 心:
Dorm are now contain and cannot come out.
Those foreign workers outside dorms can stray every where and infect the community.

Eugene
[1:04 pm, 20/04/2020] : agree

JK
[1:04 pm, 20/04/2020] : There are more staying in pte estate

KS Foong
[1:09 pm, 20/04/2020] : I believe we should also look at the FW working in the shipyard or ship building industry.

Valli
[1:10 pm, 20/04/2020] : Fully agree.
MOM should act before transmissions happens.



[1:10 pm, 20/04/2020] ☸️  Danny 心:
Everyday we have foreign workers outside dorms - infected.
They could be asymptomatic cases walking around and infecting their fellow workers and the community.
Their original source could be from Mustafa or friends from dorms.

Dongliang
[1:13 pm, 20/04/2020] : Sembawang shipyard has so many cases, is it still open as usual?

Alvin
[1:16 pm, 20/04/2020] : I still see people going to office once a week although they are not essential services

KS Foong
[1:16 pm, 20/04/2020] : This must stop also!

Dongliang
[1:18 pm, 20/04/2020] : That is serious.

Valli
[1:16 pm, 20/04/2020] : Some companies even limit the contact tracing info provided to MoH, so that their  job can still continue.

[1:20 pm, 20/04/2020] ☸️  Danny 心:
Should use mobile signals data and GPS satellite to track them.
Scientific data don't lies.

Leonard Lau
[1:22 pm, 20/04/2020] : Do you know these companies ?  If it is .. have you report?

KS Foong
[1:19 pm, 20/04/2020] : Does MOM and MOH perform spot check at industry estate. I believe we may hv factory not under essential service quietly working without anyone know.

Rama
[1:19 pm, 20/04/2020] : Yes
[1:19 pm, 20/04/2020] : Serious repercussions!
[1:20 pm, 20/04/2020] : Needs to be tightened

Rama
[1:22 pm, 20/04/2020] : Earlier,  government possibly made a mistake on wearing masks and then did a about turn.  Hope not the shame for the exercise issue.

KS Foong
[1:22 pm, 20/04/2020] : We should enforce mandatory mask wearing when going out. Do not care if u are exercise or not. If u can’t run w a mask, by all means u walk. Just do something different for this CB period for the good of the whole country

Rama
[1:23 pm, 20/04/2020] : Also, social media is carrying an article on the CEO of TH who supposedly said the 4G team could have mishandled the virus situation.

Dongliang
[1:26 pm, 20/04/2020] : Well, LW also said he doesn’t hVe the luxury of benefit of hindsight. If we have a time machine, all things will be different.

Rama
[1:26 pm, 20/04/2020] : Hope they do well on the dormitories issue.

XaniceAfcai
[1:27 pm, 20/04/2020] : Then ppls will think twice b4 go out.. Aiyo still need to wear mask...

Sam
[1:33 pm, 20/04/2020] : PM already mentioned the reasons for not making wearing mask mandatory which includes consistency with advisory by WHO, no uncontrollable community spread, not enough medical evidence that high percentage of asymptomatic   patients. But most important of all, we were not having enough mask if everyone using daily. Same argument for CB and other measures. Not implementing it early need not be because a mistake was made. We are implementing measures according to severity of the situation.

KS Foong
[1:33 pm, 20/04/2020] : It is always easy for a back seat driver to comment this or that. It seems they r the most intelligent people!  When handling first time crisis, we learn along the way and make adjustment along the way.

Rama
[1:34 pm, 20/04/2020] : Then, the CEO of TH should retract the comments made!?
[1:35 pm, 20/04/2020] : Since,  apology can be made to the head of government in Taiwan!?

[2:30 pm, 20/04/2020] ☸️  Danny 心:
(1) I think no point crying over spill milk and start "blaming exercise".

(2) We need to move ahead and tackle the virus situation heads on.

(3) We need to move from a "evidence based" approach to a "risk based management" approach - to tackle this virus pandemic - as it is a very "stealth" and "highly contagious" enemy - and move with speed and stealth - that will catch human offguard.

(4) As we admire Taiwan handling of their virus situation - we also noted that one of their warship got infected - and double digit infection suddenly exploded.

(5) So we do have up and down - in tackling a sly, stealth and fast spreading enemy --- and when we are down - we don't start blaming - but to tackle it heads on.

(6) Remember this is a marathon, once we lower our guard, the virus will overtake us.

(7) Now we just need to stay focus our energy to catch up and overtake and overcome this virus and keep our number down.

[2:33 pm, 20/04/2020] ☸️  Danny 心:
Our common enemy is the virus.

Not compete among other countries.

Even if one country is down, the whole human races lose because it can reinfect the whole world again as long as the world is not vaccinated against the virus.


Elena Woo
[3:28 pm, 20/04/2020] : Agree. And everyone knows only when tested then figures show. I don't see any point to compare other countries figures against ours. More importantly it is our daily figures. Are there enough tests conducted? Lately community figures decreased, i am wondering if it is because most of the testing are done for the fw dorms and less testing done for community (afterall there is a limit to testing capacity), which is why the community numbers decrease?

Jamie Bethany Koh
[3:31 pm, 20/04/2020] : i m of the view that as long as our local cases are low and continue to go down (single digit or 0 (better)), we should gradually lift the circuit breaker by the deadline.  We manage and control the dorm and foreign worker cases by isolating, tracing and treating to prevent it from spreading in the community.  A lot of things cannot wait, and an extension will compound that.

Ben
[3:32 pm, 20/04/2020] : Although I think we wait the next 2 weeks until May 4th, then started to lift the restrictions if local numbers are negligible.

Elena Woo
[3:33 pm, 20/04/2020] : @REACH Singapore by when will the announcement if extension of circuit breaker is required or not required?
[3:34 pm, 20/04/2020] : But unless there is sufficient testing then can determine if the local figures are really 0 or single digit, if not we won't know if genuinely the local spread has slowed or stopped.

Eugene
[3:35 pm, 20/04/2020] : I am also curious about that too. Maybe they will hold a press conference again nearer to 4th may??

Rama
[3:35 pm, 20/04/2020] : I believe testing has been intensified

Timothy Low
[3:35 pm, 20/04/2020] : I hope that will be aggressive testing among the local population too. I believe we also have many undiscovered cases among the local community as well

Alvin
[3:36 pm, 20/04/2020] : I really think many people still don’t get the seriousness of the situation

Ben
[3:36 pm, 20/04/2020] : Yes we have no record available of numbers tested in local community and fw Dorms and what % are positive. That would be very valuable information.

Elena Woo
[3:36 pm, 20/04/2020] : Yes agreed. If local population not tested aggressively, the low local numbers are not of real situation and more for display purpose only.
[3:38 pm, 20/04/2020] : If the restrictions are gradually lifted in view of deceiving low local numbers, we may end up another wave of mass infection in future.

Leonard Lau
[3:38 pm, 20/04/2020] : Give it till end April ..

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[3:21 pm, 20/04/2020] ☸️  Danny 心:
My close friend's comments :-

- In a pandemic, people first think about flattening the infection curve so that the healthcare will not be overwhelmed.

- But there is an evil twin out there waiting to destroy - the economic curve.

- As the economic curve is flattened or even stopped abruptly, not everyone is equal.

- Some took the opportunity to enjoy doing things they never had time for, others panick and worried about how the next meal is coming in.

- To borrow someone's words we are in the same storm but not necessarily in the same boat.

- So think hard how we can help.


My comments :-
- We should not accord blame - as it can damage the morale of the Leaders and the people who are still fighting "tooth and nail" with the virus pandemic.

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[6:27 pm, 20/04/2020] ☸️  Danny 心: ---

(1) One thing come to mind - wonder if now "aggressive testings" is conducted in all the dorms for foreign workers --- is there any more spare capacity to conduct tests for "foreign workers not in dorms"?

(2) Baring that double digit of these "foreign workers not in dorms" - are found to be infected every day, should there be a more systematic ways of testing these group of workers to identify those infected before the circuit breaker deadline arrive.

(3) Suggest to do the followings if we have spare capacity to systematically test this group of foreign workers :-
a. Mandate that Contractors will need to get "medical cert-free of covid-19" for all their foreign workers under them - before these workers all allowed to work in the construction sites or/and when circuit breaker ends.
These will put the onus of tests on these contractors if they want to start work when the circuit breaker ends.

b. Setup mobile testing team (eg. in vehicles or in CC near where these construction workers stay - eg. in HDB, construction sites, private estates etc) - where all workers staying around the vicinty must be escorted by their respective Contractors or Companies to be tested --- each and everyone -- to ensure all their workers are fit for work or if infected - to be send to hospital for treatment.

c. These mobile testing teams - can initially be deployed in North, South, East and West - to ensure it covers all the foreign workers not staying in dorms.

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XaniceAfcai
[6:56 pm, 20/04/2020] : My maintenance team's contractor and some suppliers technician are also work permit holder.our telecom service network supplier are also Fw. shd they also be tested too?

[6:58 pm, 20/04/2020] ☸️  Danny 心:
I suggest they should.
Netlink have 4 foreign workers infected and 2 visited more than 30 houses to install fiber.

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Valli
[7:45 pm, 20/04/2020] +65 9654 2001: Dorm and Construction Clusters Updated as of 11PM 19 Apr2020
1. MOM Published Dormitories with Isolation Orders
1.1   PPT Lodge 1B(S11) - 1508cases
1.2   Sungei Tengah Lodge - 558 cases
1.3   Weslite Toh Guan - 144 cases
1.4   Toh Guan Dorm - 100 cases
1.5   Tampines Dorm - 75 cases
1.6   Acacia Lodge - 87 cases
1.7   Cochrane Lodge I - 91 cases
1.8   Cochrane Lodge II - 79 cases
1.9   Shaw Lodge - 50 cases
1.10   Tuas View Dorm - 265 cases
1.11   North Coast Lodge - 51 cases
1.12   Mandai Lodge - 170 cases
1.13   Kranji Lodge - 114 cases
1.14    Jurong Penjuru Dormitory 1 - 61 cases
1.15    Westlite Mandai Dormitory - 57 cases
1.16   PPT Lodge 1A - 56 cases
1.17   Cassia @ Penjuru - 29 cases
1.18   Avery Lodge - 24 cases



 2. MOM Published Dormitories Not under Isolation Orders
2.1 The Leo Dormitory (1st round) - 5 cases
        The Leo Dormitory (2nd round) - 24 cases
2.2   Westlite Woodlands - 15 cases
2.3   Kian Teck Dormitory (26 Kian Teck Ave)- 8 cases
2.4    Tuas South Dormitory - 23 cases
2.5    Homestay Lodge- 28 cases
2.6    CDPL Tuas Dormitory- 5 cases
2.7   NEW   Changi Lodge II- 20 cases
2.8   NEW   Woodlands Lodge I- 12 cases




3. Company Dormitories not listed in MOM Website
3.1   36 Woodlands Industrial  PK E1 - 32 cases
3.2   31 Sungei Kadut Ave - 171 cases
3.3   Tech Park Cres. Dorm - 44 cases
3.4   Kranji Dormitory (17 Kranji Way) - 20 cases
3.5   21B & 13 Senoko- 15 cases
3.6   CitiWall - 12 cases
3.7   55 Sungei Kadut Loop - 7 cases
3.8   85 Kallang Dormitory - 8 cases
3.9    10 Kian Teck Cres dorm(Ang Cheng Guan) - 6 cases
3.10    SJ Dormitory - 15 cases


 4. Construction Sites
4.1   Glory by Dragages(59 Market Street, Former Golden Shoe) - 68 cases
4.2   NUH Renovation Works by Chin Kiong Construction - 28 cases
4.3   UBS Fitting-out by Kenyon(9 Penang Rd, Former Park Mall) - 37 cases
4.4   Maxwell MRT site by Hock Lian Seng - 6 cases
4.5   Renovation Works at 6 Battery Road - 5 cases

5. Others
5.1   Mustafa Centre - 97 cases

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Ron Ho
[8:37 pm, 20/04/2020] : Reach, this posted list is quite serious and shows that the infection within the FW community is our biggest challenge. My suggestion is to, once and for all, isolate all FW quarters. All means all. And test 100% and further  isolate the infected ones. Otherwise, our local community will not be safe as you can't prevent interaction between FW and locals. I also noticed the infection rate among our front end health workers is getting worse. I hope we can find out the flaws and fix them quickly.

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Rama
[6:03 pm, 20/04/2020] : One of the best perspectives of the current situation that I read so far :-

From Dr Sharmil de Silva:

I think the thing most people don’t understand is that the lock down is in place to slow the progression of the disease, NOT to eradicate it by end of May.

I think people are missing the point because they naively think the govt will somehow get rid of it so life goes back to normal. These are people who have ignored the global reality since January. This is the dangerous delusional thinking that some people are applying in their assessment of the situation when advocating we should stop the lockdown because they are literally only waking up to this thing now, or when we were initially shut down. So let’s lift the curtain a bit.

1. Flattening the curve means slowing down the disease so that hospitals can cope with the sick. It does not mean eradicating the disease all together.

2. No government will be able to eradicate the disease this year. It’s here until a cure or a vaccine is found

3. A vaccine is at least a year away. That’s April 2021. The earliest vaccine trials just started late last month. It takes 18 to 24 months to make, test and assess the efficacy of a vaccine. So 1 year is literally a Hail Mary.

4. There is NO going back to normal. Your normal will not exist for at least a year. Economies globally will keep bleeding and we are likely to have rolling lockdowns until a vaccine is found.

5. Even when the ban is lifted, tourism and hospitality industry, and many others will not see an increase in business for at least a year. Until a vaccine is found people will continue to self isolate even when a lock down is lifted.

6. The only reprieve we are going to get is if we have thousands of people who have been infected and recovered and minimum deaths so that we have some level of herd immunity. That is also still a theory that is yet to be proven because some countries think they may be seeing people get reinfected. Even with that in place normal is not feasible because fear still reigns and people will remain isolated until safety is guaranteed- cure or vaccine. Refer to point 3.

7. The above is still 6 months away. We are projected to reach our peak in September. That means, bleeding economy, rolling lockdowns, death and chaos until then.

8. The decisions made in the lockdown like no alcohol and no dog walking or running and no e-commerce are not made with the privileged in mind. They are made with the masses in mind. What you allow in the suburbs you must allow in the townships and those two things look very different in execution.

Now our government is doing the best it can and they have reacted faster than most developed countries. Our progress is still better than most and right now we’re riding the dumb hope that somehow BCG gives us some fighting chance (still unproven).

So please please we all need to do whatever we can to help our neighbors, help each other, support our government and stop having delusional ideas about any level of normalcy at the end of this month. Adjust your projections and hunker down.

This is not a joke and it’s not even anywhere near any semblance of real yet.

Normal is dead. Let that sink in. But HOPE  is very much alive!
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[8:51 pm, 20/04/2020] ☸️  Danny 心:
Hougang mall crowded.
Why no stay at home?

Ben
[8:51 pm, 20/04/2020] : This is another problem that needs to be dealt with.
[8:51 pm, 20/04/2020] : 2 weeks into the CB. 99% making huge efforts and sacrifices. Why is this being allowed to undermine those efforts?

Eugene
[8:53 pm, 20/04/2020] : no queue management system? Govt should restrict only 2/3 members max per household to go out with the worrying numbers now

Saturday, April 18, 2020

REACH - 55. PM said  few early signs that the Circuit Breaker is bringing down community number  (SK)
19 Apr 2020 (12 pm - 10pm)

REACH
[9:01 am, 19/04/2020] : https://www.facebook.com/192130117495006/posts/3671672189540764/?d=n

[9:04 am, 19/04/2020] : McDonald's Singapore suspends all restaurant operations including delivery and takeaway until May 4
https://www.straitstimes.com/singapore/mcdonalds-singapore-suspends-all-restaurant-operations-including-delivery-and-takeaway?xtor=CS3-18&utm_source=STiPhone&utm_medium=share&utm_term=2020-04-19%209%3A04%3A17

[11:04 am, 19/04/2020] : https://www.facebook.com/1279122248765381/posts/4039881852689393/?d=

[11:38 am, 19/04/2020] : [Sent by Gov.sg - 19 Apr]
COVID-19: Tackling outbreak in foreign worker dormitories
🏥Active testing is conducted
- Hence the high number of cases daily
- Numbers will remain high for a while as testing continues
- Most cases are mild
✅Well-being of workers taken care of
- The Inter-agency Taskforce set up to coordinate govt effort
- MOM coordinating NGOs' efforts to support workers
🏠Healthy essential workers housed separately
- eg. SAF camps, sports halls
🏢Additional facilities being prepared
- For mild cases: Community care facilities (eg. at Singapore Expo) being expanded
- For recovered workers: Govt assessing feasibility of using alternative facilities
go.gov.sg/fw-update17
[11:39 am, 19/04/2020] +65 8637 2164: https://www.straitstimes.com/politics/coming-days-critical-in-fight-against-coronavirus-pm-lee?xtor=CS3-18&utm_source=STiPhone&utm_medium=share&utm_term=2020-04-19%2011%3A04%3A28

[12:00 pm, 19/04/2020] : Dear contributors,
Welcome back! ☺️
⏰ Our chat will be open till 10pm today.
🗒 REACH is constantly taking note of all the feedback and suggestions shared on our WhatsApp chats, and will send them to the relevant authorities for consideration.
📢 Topic: 📢
PM said yesterday that there are a few early signs that the Circuit Breaker is bringing down the number of cases in the community. As active testing of migrant workers has resulted in the sharp spike in migrant workers cases, PM has said we must expect to see more of such cases for a little while longer, given that measures to break the transmission chain take time to show results.
How can we be more cohesive and encourage everyone to do so as we fight COVID-19 together?
👉 https://www.straitstimes.com/politics/coming-days-critical-in-fight-against-coronavirus-pm-lee?xtor=CS3-18&utm_source=STiPhone&utm_medium=share&utm_term=2020-04-19%2011%3A04%3A28

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[4:11 pm, 18/04/2020] ☸️  Danny 心: https://www.zaobao.com.sg/realtime/singapore/story20200418-1046533

(早报讯)截至今天(4月18日)中午12时,卫生部已初步确定今天新增942起冠病新病例,再破单日最高增幅纪录。这使我国总病例达5992起。
卫生部今天下午3时许发文告指出,新增病例绝大多数都是住在客工宿舍的工作准证持有者。
本地病例则持续减少,今天有14名本地公民或永久居民确诊染病。
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Minister Lawrence Wong: We are going all out to suppress the virus outbreak in the foreign worker dormitories. It’s a massive undertaking involving many people on the frontline - SAF and SPF officers, officials from MOM, as well as our healthcare doctors and nurses.
-----

My close friend comment :- "If it is proactive testing to arrest issue, then it's a good thing".

My comments :- "Yes I think government adopting our strategy on aggressive testing on the dorm to cover all infected cases - so that all will be identified and weed out all possible cases ---- and will not infect our Community.
The big number we see now is expected - and we should not be alarm by it.
The moment when all the tests are done on dorm ---- the number will decline and eventually go down to zero.

Notice that the community spreading is now only 14 - the trend is going down -- showing that the Circuit Breaker measures are showing result.

Let us monitor for a few more days --- and see how it goes.


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[6:46 pm, 13/04/2020] ☸️  Danny 心:
My close friend observation :-
(3) In the case of diamond princess cruise ship, asymptomatic cases constitute 18%. In south Korea case, 20% out of 9000 studied. This is a very worrying statistic. In the case of outbreaks at foreign workers dorms, our foreign workers are like the passengers on board of diamond princess cruise who are isolated within their cruise ship cabins. The covid19 virus thrives in the environment and invisibly being carried around. Can we plead with the authorities to rapidly test and isolate and treat those workers who already have been infected and not wait for symptoms to appear please. From the humanity standpoint, we are responsible for their well being. From the pandemic standpoint, we cannot afford to let the cases explode.

Joint Contribution with my close friend :-

[8:33 pm, 13/04/2020] ☸️  Danny 心:
b.  Quarantine in dorm and Testing

- Currently, we are using gold standard test ktis - a very accurate lab test - that take about 1 day to know the result.

- And in total, can only conduct about 2,900 to 3,000 test a day.

- In a dorm that are currently quarantine, there are 24,000 foreign workers - and it will need 8 to 9 days to complete.

- While waiting for the tests, there could be more infection even though social distancing may be implemented as mild asymptomatic cases may sneeze or cough and infect the doors, chairs, water basin, toilets, food, utensils, TV, gadgets - and anyone touch if may get infected - if the tests are not done fast enough.

- This could have explained why we have 141 dorm workers are infected as unlink cases in 12 Apr 2020.


b.  Quarantine in dorm and Testing
- As foreign workers are so many and even by practising social distancing - it is still possible to get infected by contaminated surfaces as mention in scenarios described in Part 1.

- And in total, as we can only conduct about 2,900 to 3,000 test a day using golden lab test kits ---there is a need to quickly ramp up the tests before more and more foriegn workers got contaminated --- as evident in 141 foreign workers are infected on 12 Apr 2020.

- Thus using the rapid test kits will be one way to speed up the dorm foreign workers testing.

- For essential jobs, foreign workers need to undergo the golden standard lab test - as they will need to go out to community to work - and if not 100% proven - can infect the community.

- For those who are symptomatic, golden standard lab test also need to be conducted - and if found infected - got to be treated in hospitals.

Summary :-
- We felt that the above 2 approaches will  be able to plug the gaps and bring down the number of local transmission - either through unlink cases, new clusters or continue infection in foreign workers dorms.

---
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[2:31 pm, 19/04/2020] ☸️  Danny 心:
Personally, I feel that :-

1. If few days before 4 May - the number of infection is zero for a few days - then Circuit breaker can stop to resume work and school.

2. However if still have few cases by 4 may - then I suggest extending CB measures to another 2 weeks to ensure the number go down to zero.

Else all our efforts wasted if everyone go back to work and school - but trigger another round of community spreading.

Then we need another CB measures - that will cause big impact to our economy.


Ben
[2:33 pm, 19/04/2020] : Yes I agree that staggered openings after 4th May if community cases are zero for a while. Give people confidence and optimism. However careful managing and keeping other measures strictly monitored to ensure no flare up again.

Dongliang
[2:34 pm, 19/04/2020] : For community case to be zero, it will take a Long time, maybe months.

XaniceAfcai
[2:36 pm, 19/04/2020] : That is what my idea too. Cheers

[2:40 pm, 19/04/2020] ☸️  Danny 心:
Yes the zero infection refers to community spreading.
If dorm still have infected numbers but is well contained within the dorm and given treatment - but will not infect the community, we can still consider to open up.

XaniceAfcai
[4:54 pm, 19/04/2020] : 👍

Jamie Bethany Koh
[4:54 pm, 19/04/2020] : 👍🏼

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[3:01 pm, 19/04/2020] ☸️  Danny 心: Som people are still not observing the Stay at Home - but crowding out at shopping malls and parks.

REACH
[3:03 pm, 19/04/2020] : 📢 New Topic 📢
Many contributors have shared with us how they have been coping with the Circuit Breaker, such as the challenges of communicating in this new social context (e.g. needing to be more patient), and how they feel about juggling working from home and home-based learning (for parents).
How are you coping with the Circuit Breaker so far? How are you finding support for yourself, as you support your friends, colleagues and/or the community during the Circuit Breaker period? 😊

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[6:49 pm, 19/04/2020] ☸️  Danny 心:
Contributions by my close friend :-

We are at Day 14 (half-time) of this CB period.
Are we ready to resume our normal lives before CB? 3 questions we need to ask ourselves:

Question 1
Is our acute healthcare reaching its maximum capacity? How much further can we stretch?
To answer, we have to take into consideration
(a) current active covid19 cases and other medical cases;
(b) rate of covid 19 recovery
From citizens' viewpoint, we see active cases overflowing to private hospitals,  isolation facilities such as exhibitions and sports halls.
Many of us are deeply grateful for the hard work and speed at which gov respond.
So what's the acute care capacity? And how much further can it be stretched ?

Question 2
Are we aggressively testing the population to a point where we we are able to project new cases growth rate?
(a) Two case studies showed asymtomatic cases constitute 19% to 20%. (Source Diamond Princess, South Korea) In an isolated environment  (Diamond Princess ) infection was 20%.
With 13(?) foreign worker's dorms being lockdown, at 20%, what is the projected new cases growth?
This is assuming that the tests are conducted at lightning speed to segregate the infected from the healthy workers. What percentage will require acute care?

(b) widening the tests criteria to anticipate unexpected outbreaks coming either from imports, other dorms as well as SC/PR/Pass holders

As at today, we know that we are in a worse off situation than when we started our CB. Total number of cases have increased 5 times from 1309 (5 Apr) to 6588 (19 Apr).
Active cases rose 5.86 times from 989 to 5800+(19 Apr discharged figure not available).
So if the bulk of the cases came from dorms, are SC/PR/pass holders allowed to resume their lives before CB? Assume we have the answers for question 1&2

Question 3
How do we plan to return?
Germany seemed to have worked out their numbers.
Merkel said at an infection rate of 1.1, Germany will max it's healthcare facility by Oct, if infection rate is 1.2 it will be july, if infection rate is 1.3, it will be Jun.
If there's a plan on who and how and additional safety measures, there is a need to comms to businesses so that arrangement could be made.
And the authorities have guard the growth rate so that we undertake CB2 before the healthcare reaches its limits.
We should also not forget that jun holidays are coming up. Parents might have booked their holidays since last Dec.
 Are the authorities  issuing reminders on travel advisories and bans?

----

----

[7:22 pm, 19/04/2020] ☸️  Danny 心: ----

(1) Assuming that everything works well and our local transmission infection go down to zero come 4 May 2020 - and we terminate our Circuit Breaker measures ---- we must also not be complacent --- in order to prevent re-infection.

(2) It is imperative that we must adopt protective measures to prevet re-infection when Circuit Breaker ends such as :-
- continue to wear reusable face masks when taking public transport or the moment people step out of their house.

- But my concern is, when people wear face mask when working, they may encounter breathing difficulty having to wear it for 8 or more hours a day.
Suggest that A*Star are working on the transparent face shield --- won't it be a good idea for the Government to consider issuing reusable transparent face shield to each person - who need to work, jog, cycle or children who cannot wear face mask as they are too young and may suffocate?

- Public should continue social distancing measures - eg. 1 meter distance in queueing, alternate seats when eating in food court, coffeshop, f&b, restaurants etc., restrict the number of people inside a mall or park or any buildings etc

(3) Business must continue to transform to make use of ePlatform, Digital Economy, eDelivery, eCommerce, eTransaction, eBanking etc --- so that there are little incentive for people to go out and crowd around a company or retail to do business or buy their stuff.

(4) All the above measures must conitnue until vaccines are ready --- and when the whole population are vaccinated to prevent infection.

(5) Meanwhile, Singapore businesses will have successfully transformed into Digital Economy - their 2nd wing to grow their business even though the pandemic is over --- and achieve the overall objective of ITM (Industry Transformation Map) - transforming their business into a new Digital Economy --- where overseas clientee can make purchases via our websites and open up a new frontier for the local companies to grow their business.

----

Friday, April 17, 2020

REACH - 54. How can we curb the spread of fake news so we do not create panic among others while facing this crisis (SK)
18 Apr 2020 (2 pm - 10pm)

REACH
[10:15 am, 18/04/2020] : Minister Lawrence Wong: We are going all out to suppress the virus outbreak in the foreign worker dormitories. It’s a massive undertaking involving many people on the frontline - SAF and SPF officers, officials from MOM, as well as our healthcare doctors and nurses.
More: https://www.facebook.com/192130117495006/posts/3667650523276264/

[11:24 am, 18/04/2020] : [Sent by Gov.sg - 18 Apr]
COVID-19: Respect our Enforcement Officers (EOs) and Ambassadors
- 12 reports of EOs and Ambassadors being verbally and physically abused (e.g. slapping, punching and head-butting)
- Zero tolerance for abuse ➡ Fines and/or imprisonment will be enforced
EOs and Ambassadors help ensure safe distancing, and play an important role in safeguarding our health
go.gov.sg/noabuse-18apr
Businesses to comply with measures:
📝 F&B outlets will be fined for failing to enforce safe distancing
🚫 13 businesses fined for continuing to provide non-essential services
😷 11 shop staff fined for not wearing masks
✅ Businesses must do their part to protect workers, eg. workers should not be deployed across outlets
✅ Supervisors to check workers are well, train them to observe safe distancing measures
go.gov.sg/covidbreach-17apr
The health of all depends on each one of us

[11:29 am, 18/04/2020] : Dear contributors,
We will be opening the chat from 2pm to 10pm today. The topic will be posted shortly.
Thank you
Megan

[1:05 pm, 18/04/2020] : REACH Live! (Mandarin) Highlights #1
Why should we wear mask whenever we go out? Let's hear from Ms Tin Pei Ling 陈佩玲!
https://www.facebook.com/92744267226/posts/10157147220947227/
#SGUnited

[2:00 pm, 18/04/2020] : Dear contributors,
Welcome back! ☺
⏰ Our chat will be open till 10pm today.
REACH is constantly taking note of all the feedback and suggestions shared on our WhatsApp chats, and will send them to relevant authorities for consideration.
📢Topic📢
On Friday (17 Apr), there were false rumours stating that PM Lee would be making an announcement on a "partial lockdown" of the country by region. During this sensitive period, it is important that we refrain from sharing false information.
As responsible citizens, how can we curb the spread of fake news so we do not create panic among others while facing this crisis together?
👉 https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/singapore/coronavirus-covid-19-false-rumour-pm-lee-announcement-lockdown-12652446
#SGUnited
--------------


[2:41 pm, 18/04/2020] ☸️  Danny 心:
CNA
18 Apr 2020 09:31AM
(Updated: 18 Apr 2020 09:50AM)
MOH flags concern over unlinked COVID-19 cases, says tests on patients at primary care facilities indicate 'undetected cases in community'

The health ministry on Friday (Apr 17) flagged concern over unlinked cases of COVID-19 in Singapore, saying that tests on a sample of individuals at primary care facilities have picked up several positive diagnoses, which indicate "undetected cases in the community".
Primary care facilities in Singapore include polyclinics and general practitioner clinics.
---
MOH also raised concern over a rising number of unlinked cases.
"We are particularly concerned that it is increasingly difficult to link the new cases and identify the source of infection," said MOH in its press release on Friday.
"In fact, the number of unlinked cases in the community has increased slightly, from an average of 19 cases per day in the week before, to an average of 22 per day in the past week," it added.
MOH also said that an ongoing surveillance programme on a small sample of patients at primary care facilities has revealed several positive cases.
"We have picked up some cases through these tests, which is an indication of undetected cases in the community," it said. No further information was provided by MOH.
----
This means that personal-to-personal contact tracing has come to a dead end.
And if personal-to-personal contact tracing is assuming 100% effective - why are there still many unlink cases?
There could be contaminated places infected by sick person - that cannot be unfold by personal-to-personal contact tracing that lead to the current many unlink cases.

Re-visiting Joint Contribution with my close friend --- the "Suspected Loopholes and deficiency in just adopting personal-to-personal contact tracing" :-

Section A - How to tackle unlink cases - widen criteria for test

[6:46 pm, 13/04/2020] ☸️  Danny 心:
Joint Contribution with my close friend :-

(1) The rise in unlinked cases (167 on 12 apr) and large number of cases (in the hundreds) is alarming as this suggests community spread is (i) becoming pervasive (ii) likelihood that asymptomatic persons are contributing to the rapid spread and (iii) current method of contact tracing is unable to cope.

(2) we hope that the relevant authorities widen the test criteria for covid19 e.g. It was reported that a confirmed case was having fever and cough but was not tested and after the symptoms persisted for several days and was finally tested and confirmed. During the period where the symptoms appear to confirmed it might have spread to several others and chain of transmission proliferates exponentially. When community spread has become pervasive, can the authorities consider widening the test criteria e.g. Persons who showed symptoms and worked in public facing environment should be tested.

(4) With the large daily number of cases and if these were a result of community asymptomatic spread, contact tracing based on closed contact will need to be enhanced. Can the authorities look into contact tracing using mobile signals. The privacy issue related to such tracing should be allowed during such special situation. Once a person is confirmed, can the authorities retrieve from Telcos the mobile signal logs related to the person in question and trace his/her movement over the past 14 days. And all the related mobile signals that were in close vicinity.  We can them identify all the persons who have come close the the confirmed case and perform tests in them on them. If positive, isolate and treat quickly without waiting for symptoms to appear and isolate those who are tested negative.

=---
[2:41 pm, 18/04/2020] ☸️  Danny 心: =---

Section B - Tackling unlink cases by crowd mapping

[8:33 pm, 13/04/2020] ☸️  Danny 心:
Part ! - 2 Things that we felt have loopholes - that can be done better (at the backdrop of more and more local transmission)

(1) We are getting increasingly more and more concern as local transmission - is now the predominant infection source. Imported infection is very low and in 13 Apr 2020 is zero.

(2) What is worst, now the main transmission sources come from unlink cases :-

13 Apr 2020 - 167 cases (where 141 are foreign workers working in dorm) and the rest are residents.
12 Apr 2020 - 119 unlink cases
10 Apr 2020 - 71 unlink cases

(3) We felt that mild asymptomatic cases could be the major infection sources in our local transmission.

(4) If this is the case, 2 things we do currently may not go right and may have flaws :-
a. Contact tracing and Testing

a. Contact tracing and Testing
- by identifying the infected person - and trace those people he/she contacted with - may have misssed important infection sources :-

- eg. the toilet he/she visit (as he/she may discharged droplets and virus in wash basin and toilet bowls.

- eg. infected person use his contaminated fingers to press the lift buttons, hold the handrail in MRT or bus or sneeze or cough in the lift.

- eg. infected person eat in food court and contaminate the chairs, tables, utensils etc

- although other people did not come into contact with this infected person --- they may still get infected - that result in the many unlink cases.

- Tracetogether mobile apps - will not be able to detect such unlink cases.

- So even if the contact tracing is 100% successful and all those who come into contact with the infected person are trace through the Tracetogether apps (assume all people installed) or detective means, tested and quarantine or Stay at Home ----- the above infection sources can still infect healthy people that come into contact with contaminated areas --- as tracetogether won't tell where the infected person has leave his/her trace of contamination.
Even through personal interview, he/she may not remember all the places he/she goes.


Joint Contribution with my close friend :-

Part 2 - Proposed 2 Alternative approaches to plug the loopholes

(1) And we will like to propose an alternate perspective and approach (that deviate from how the above 3 things are done) - as the number of local transmission cases and unlink cases are on the rise every day.

a. Contact tracing and testing
- Based on the scenario described in Part 1, where vicintiy and surface areas can be contaminated by infected persons ---- Cannot be based on close contact anymore.

- Adjusting Contact tracing approach become important.

- "Like I heard in HK", one person infected , entire block qurantined, everyone in the block need to be tested and the whole block need to be disinfected.

- By using this approach - we can catch and weed out those mild and asymptomatic cases where they don't come into contact with the infected person - but got infected by contaminated surfaces, aerosol left in the air.

- Thus we felt that using Tracetogether mobile apps and even detective legworks - will not fully cover all the contaminated areas as well as those people who don't come into contact with the infected person - but got infected by touching contaminated areas (as tracetogether don't identify areas that the infected person visit and people may tend to forget certain place they visit when interview by detective).

- A more effective method is to use location-based tracking - such as mobile signal data, GPS location tracking that we can collect from the respective Telcos - that provide all contact data for contact tracers to scientifically traced all people in the vicinity that is visited by the infected person - and get all these people tested, quarantine if need be.
(Question :- Is it possible to use mobile signal tracing to trace all the places that the person has visited over the past 14 days? And trace all the signals that were in the same premises around the same time?
Answer :- Yes. All are logged into the syslog.)


- There is a need to widen the criteria for tests - as we know that there is a limit a test can be done per day using our golden standard test kits - that need lab test to verify the outcome and will need a day to know the test result.

- As such, there is a need to have a faster and cheaper tests --- that is a rapid test kit to quickly test those people in the vicinity that have no close contact with the infected person - though with 95% accuracy.

- For those that show symptoms and for those that come into contact with the infected person --- the golden standard lab test kit - can be retested on these people - to ensure they are not infected - if yes - then sent to hospital for treatment, else quarantine at home.
(The point is - Even if there 95% accuracy, can quickly isolate the infected.)

----

[6:44 pm, 18/04/2020] ☸️  Danny 心: ---

My close friend's contribution on how to counter fake news :-

Part (1) Continue to maintain "one version of truth".
a. Maintain an authoritative website to check for correct info. When a directive changes, please keep the old directive but highlight that it has changed and point back to the latest. This will reduce confusion.

b. Maintain an open channel for public to verify or validate info. This helps to counter ill intents aiming to deceive.

---

[6:44 pm, 18/04/2020] ☸️  Danny 心: ---

Part 2. Ensure mainstream media like ST, CNA, Zaobao report.
- Measures are changing very quickly.
- Report should be correct, complete and concise, easily summarise into infographics and tables.
- Link current with past reports
(i) what's new? E.g.. It is mandatory to wear masks when we step out; cloth masks also helps to provent covid 19  transmission
(ii) what has changed? E.g.. gov no longer discourage wearing of masks
(iii) what remains the same? Wear masks if you're sick; no need to wear masks when engaging in strenuous exercise such as running or jogging; social distancing still applies
(iv) what's obsolete e.g. only surgical or medical grade face masks protect

---
[6:44 pm, 18/04/2020] ☸️  Danny 心: ---

Part 3. Wise up
a. question the source of info we receive. Gov authoritative sites? Mainstream media? Eg. PM will be addressing at 4pm to announce further lockdown. No such annoucements? Stop spreading and educate sender.

b. smell a rat
E.g. PM will a announce locking down by regions e. North, south, east, west and central. Does it make sense in singapore. Of course not!  Are public servants allowed to leak info before PM announcements. No, that will tantamount to OSA offence. Stop spreading and educate sender.

c. Half-truths. Be clear of what-is and is-not so that we will not fall prey to scams. (1) & (2) is important for public to stay informed

d. Speculation. Eg. There is impending lockdown. Think and discern what it means to me. Plan before act such as planning my family needs and for how long? Be realistic. Resist re-acting to every speculation. Even better, stay informed about happenings around the world and start planning.

e. Dismissing the truth as fake. There was advice going around to advise people not to login to budget website and calling it fake. Sounds like good advice because our singpass, bank info may potentially be phished. Gov should think what strategy to counter such dismissal attempts.

-----

Taking stock - our successful Contributions in REACH to tackle covid-19 virus pandemic (SK)

18 Apr 2020


In total, taking stock, our successful recommendations:-

1. Non-alcohol sanitizer.

2. Reusable washable face masks.

3. Crowd mapping using mobile signal data and satellite GPS - spaceout and npark.

4. DSTA develop network analysis tool for contact tracing (location-based tracking).

5. PM call for circuit breaker measures - based on our highlight of increasing unlink cases.

6. Aggressive testing in dorms to weed out all infected cases (2,900 tests per day)

---
Later we are going to bring up measures to tackle unlink cases in the community.

7. Propose extend circuit breaker to another 2 weeks if the infection number in community is not zero - few days before 4 May 2020.

(After note :- PM Lee announce on 21 Apr 2020 to extend circuit breaker to another 4 weeks from 4 May 2020 to 1 Jun 2020.)

8. Aggressive testing to ramp up to include essential service workers (ramp up from 3,000 to 8,000 tests per day) - announced by Minister Gan Kim Yong and Minister Lawrence Wong on 27 Apr 2020.

9. Propose step-by-step opening up of Economic inititatives after Circuit Breaker ends echo by PM Lee, Minister Iswaran, Minister Chan Chun Sing (30 Apr 2020 - 1 May 2020)

10. Raise concern on Bluetooth Security in Tracetogether mobile apps - and Government will not make it compulsory but working with Google and Apple - to tighten Android and iOS. (2 May 2020)

11. Government adopted SafeEntry scan QR code by 12 May 2020 compulsory for people entering any malls or establishment to trace people entry. (2 May 2020)

12. Commented that Youth is wasted on the young. Now graduating cohort can start going to school 😊 (12 May 2020) (SK)

13. Propose organise testing priorities into Batches. Nursing homes testing fall into Batch 3b (25 Apr 2020) - Government announce it will test nursing homes as one of the priority batch on 2 May 2020.
(CNA
02 May 2020 09:25PM
(Updated: 02 May 2020 09:30PM)
Authorities prioritising COVID-19 testing at nursing homes, employees to be housed on-site or at hotels)

14.  Propose batch testing of workers when circuit breaker ease (25 Apr 2020) - Government announce priority testing for customer-facing staff (3 May 2020).

15. Propose virtual conferencing to negotiate RCEP and target for signing on end 2020 (30 Apr 2020) - Minister Chan Chun Sing announced in 3 May 2020) - that RCEP intense virtual meeting ongoing and likely to sign by end 2020.

16. Propose Order online and pick up later at retail - retail Giant implement (SK)

17. Proposed Psychological resiliency (Zen) to unite Singaporeans and residents (5 Feb 2020) - PM Lee speech say psychological and social resiliency is important in this fight against virus pandemic (13 Mar 2020).

18. Proposed Community spreading fall to zero or single digit before opening (25 Apr 2020) - echo by Minister Gan Kim Yong (4 May 2020)

19. Proposed to allow foreign workers to have space to walk in the sun and not confine to indoor small space (28 Apr 2020) - Colonel Chua managing isolation camps allow foreign workers to walk in the sun (6 May 2020) (SK)

20. Proposed risk based approach to tackle virus pandemic and not evidence-based approach which is reactive (10 Apr 2020). Early Childhood Development Agency (ECDA) - “After pre-school services fully resume, we will consider a *risk-based* testing system to protect children and staff,” an ECDA spokesperson told CNA. (14 May 2020) (SK)

21. Raise concern on skin irritation and breathe in toxin disinfectant fumes when using disinfectant chambers. WHO confirm similar concern. Temasek Foundation decide to do a trial on such concern in deployment. (SK)

22. Suggest it is the onus of business to present Government with detail plan on what safety safeguard to be put in place by each industries and each buinsess before allowing opening up in Phase 1, 2 and 3 (22 May 2020).
Minister Lawrence Wong say the same thing on 28 May 2020.

23. Post cardboard beds for easy and assemble for sick patients. Use by Government to house foreign workers doing essential services (30 May 2020). (SK)

24. I raise the issue of Bluetooth security used by Tracetogether apps. Tracetogether apps not make compulsory, wearable bluetooth dongle will be distributed to everyone. (5 Jun 2020).

25. Contribute the link on "Singapore rank 4th highest in safety risk against virus conducted by independant international study for foriegn investors" (8 Jun 2020). Report in Straits Times (10 Jun 2020) (SK)

26. Contribute pictures on the various plastic shield to protect diners in restaurant, food centres. Comfort Delgro subsidiary roll out plastic shield in Ko Fu food court to trial and will roll out to more food court if successful (10 Jun 2020) (SK)

27.  I commented that IT security must be the core of any National IT system roll out to the public. I am refering to the Tracetogether mobile apps bluetooth security vulenrability (4 May 2020). DPM Heng Swee Keat sees what I see - that cybersecurity must be the core of any IT design that roll out to the public. 'Digital virus' might be bigger threat than Covid-19: Heng Swee Keat (13 Jun 2020).
Minister Vivian also say that Tracetogether token should be open up in code, design - for public feedback and can be improved upon. (13 Jun 2020).

28. Comment in REACH on PSP 6 members campaigning violate 5 people in a group under MOH safety guideline and ELD campaigning guideline (19 Jun 2020). REACH Administrator say they will feedback to relevant Authorities. Safe Distancing Ambassador take down the particulars of all PSP members for flouting the law. (22 Jun 2020 CNA).

29. Comment in REACH on Holland Village - British Indian Curry restaurant big crowd without mask and breach safe distancing (20 Jun 2020). URA close the shop and the sidewalk for breaching safe distancing (21 - 22 Jun 2020 CNA)

30. Propose digitalisation through eCommerce for SMEs and big Enterpises to tap not only local market but also overseas market align with ITM. (28 Apr 2020) (27 May 2020). 500 SMEs digitalise through eCommerce platform to access overseas market (ST 22 Jun 2020)

31. Projection through math calculation dorm testing will complete by end July or Aug 2020. (SK). CNA 25 Jun 2020  report that 70% to 80% of migrant workers in dormitories expected to be COVID-19 free by end-July 2020: Lawrence Wong.

Thursday, April 16, 2020

REACH - 53. 28 days circuit breaker may not be enough if we don't obey (SK)
17 Apr 2020 (12 pm - 10pm)

REACH
[12:02 pm, 17/04/2020] : Dear contributors, welcome back!
📢Topic📢
Environment and Water Resources Minister Masagos Zulkifli said on Thursday (Apr 16) that a 28-day "circuit breaker" may not be enough if Singaporeans continue to flout measures put in place to stem the spread of COVID-19.
What can we do to help those around us adapt to the COVID-19 measures and abide by the rules?
👉https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/singapore/covid-19-circuit-breaker-mask-enforcement-masagos-coronavirus-12649274


REACH
[2:50 pm, 17/04/2020] : In the meantime, how about we move on to our next discussion topic?
☕Tea Break Question☕
What inspiring stories of hope have you come across during the circuit breaker period?
Together, we can overcome!
#SGUnited

----

[4:02 pm, 17/04/2020] ☸️  Danny 心: ----

Joint Contribution with my close friend :-

Part A - Sizing up the current infection scenarios :-

NOVEL CORONAVIRUS CASES IN SINGAPORE (16 Apr 2020)
New cases announced on Apr 15 728
Confirmed cases so far 4,427
Recovered 683
Still in hospital 1,886
In isolation 1,848
Deaths 10

My close friend observation :-
[6:01 pm, 15/04/2020] ☸️  Danny 心:
(1) Covid19 is teaching the world many lessons. One of which is mathematics. Please see attached 6 day forecast for singapore from 12 apr to 19 apr. Given yesterday's new cases we are already heading towards the worser scenario (source : http://rocs.hu-berlin.de/corona/docs/forecast/results_by_country/). Moving forward, we heading in the direction of 4000+ to 5000+ cases by Sun, 19 apr.

(2) Yesterday total infection is now 4,427 - very close to my close friend mathematical projection of of 4000+ to 5000+ cases by Sun, 19 apr.

(3) What are the 3 major sources of infection in Singapore now :-
a. Dorm foreign worker infection (yesterday figures are 654)
- this is like a cruise ship where many workers are living in close environment.

b. Community spreading (yesterday figures are 48)  - likely to come from 2 sources :-
i. family member or in nursing homes - members who are infected but show no symptoms - and quietly spreading to those who stay with them.
ii. People working in essential services - where some are infected with no symptoms but quietly spreading to the community (eg. 4 netlink workers infected - and 2 has visited homes for fiber broadband installation).
Note :- there are people working in hawker, food centre, supermarket and other essential services at workplace.

c. Foreign workers living outside dorm (yesterday figures are 26)

d. Imported cases = 0 for many consecutive days.

aka datang ......
Part 2 - What should be our focus point to bring our local transmission to Zero

----
Part 2 - What should be our focus point to bring our local transmission to Zero

(1) Foreign Workers dorm infection
- though the number is increasing exponentially - we feel that this is not a major cause for alarm as it is not unexpected because it is cram inside like cruise ship.
- With more aggressive testings, the big number will surface.
- However when all foreign workers in the dorm are tested, the number will go down and can even go down to zero as those infected will have been sent to the hospital for treatment.
- The situation in the dorm is self-contained - as they are quarantined in the dorm and will not spread to the community.
- The only concern is that our hospital facilities and medical personnel could be over-strain.
- But no choice, if we don't do aggressive testings to identify those infected - the virus will not stop infecting --- and in fact will continue to snowball quietly and exponentially.
- Thus aggressive testings to quickly identified all symptomatic and asymptomatic - is the key to curb and prevent the quiet snowballing and quickly quarantine and put them in a hospital or community medical settings away from the main community --- will be the only effective way to bring the local transmission down to zero.

(2) Spreading within the local Community

a. Family members or people staying in the same house
- I intend to focus on tackling the community spreading which actually worries me even though circuit breaker measures are in place.
- Assume everyone is observing the measures conscientiously by staying at home or wearing mask, how did the community still get infected?
- It could be their families members or in nursing homes, those people who are staying with them.
- Then to weed out the mild asymptomatic cases, there may be a need to test those who are staying with them.
- I think we are not too far off from weeding out and bringing down the community spreading to zero if we do that because community will have little chance to spread if their contact with others are limited except those who stay with them. (Assume that everyone take the Circuit Breaker measures seriously by staying at home and wear mask when going out for essential).

b. People working outside in essential services (eg. food courts, coffeshops, supermarket, bus captain, counter staff, delivery persons etc
- My close friend added that - we should not forget about those people who are working outside in essential services that may get infected by asymptomatic cases. (As we speak, CNA news reported that :- Four employees of Netlink contractor test positive for COVID-19, two visited homes for fibre broadband installation).

- My close friend noted that :-
i. Family members known group, can test.
ii. Non  public facing workers limited interaction, can trace.
iii. Public facing workers cannot trace. Therefore, once they display symptoms must quickly test. The old protocol is go home rest 5 days, still sick see doctor. But now we know, covid cases becoming clinically well still carry virus with them
Before releasing quarantined, important to test them.

-- The above approach should also apply to those foreign workers that are not living in the dorm).

---
Part 3 - Strain public medical facilities and medical personnel
- Of course the Circuit Breaker measures (where people need to Stay-at-Home and wear face masks if go out to buy essential) --- will be the most effective way to break the transmission chain ---- if everyone observe the measures conscientiously.

- Our only worry is that, by adopting aggressive testing to weed out the mild asymptomatic cases, can our hospital facilities, medical officers cope?

- But the good news is :- CNA just reported that more private clinics are gearing up to do tests in Singapore.

- That's good. Maybe test kits have geared up - and private sector clinics medical personnel can be an added medical manpower sources to relief the over-strain public hospital facilities and public medical personnel.

Summary :-
- We hope that by adopting the above measures in tackling :-
a. foreign worker dorm - once all tests conducted (the number will drop to zero)

b. community (family members or people not of same family staying together) - by containing and testing the house as a group

c. workers working in essential service (by containing and testing those who are not facing public) as well as contact tracing those workers facing public

c. foreign worker not staying in dorm - apply the same approach as point b. (by containing and testing those workers that stay together).

-- there is a possibility of bringing down the local transmission to zero --- provided that the rest of the Community strictly and conscientiously observe the Circuit Breaker measures - by Staying-at-Home, wear a mask if go out for essentials.

================

Ron Ho
[4:12 pm, 17/04/2020] : Summary of a webinar with DMS Dr Kenneth Mak

1. Current outbreak is the 4th wave.
Theory: travellers who were asymptomatic spread the infection to Mustafa Centre. 50 staff members of Mustafa’s were quarantined. Then the foreign workers (FW) visited Mustafa and got infected.

The infection then spread between the dorms because the workers from the various different dorms work together in a common construction site.

2. Steps taken to control the spread among FW:

A) segregate the FW

B) set up medical posts in some dorms, manned by doctors and nurses.
This was met with limited success because the FW were too afraid to go down to the medical posts to get tested when they had symptoms

C) Active Searching - in some dorms, they actively went to the rooms and did the swabbing. This method picked up some positive cases.
The recent increase in Covid cases is due to this Active case finding.

D) Decant some FW from the more contested dorms (this is still ongoing)

E) Identify and remove the FW at risk (>50 years old, with concurrent chronic medical condition) from the dorms

3. The new suspect case definition included anosmia as a symptom because local experience showed that some cases presented initially only as fever and anosmia. The respiratory symptoms only occurred later.

4. If GPs send their patients to SASH polyclinics, the polyclinics won’t inform the GPs if the results are positive. The GP has to check NEHR for the results. So they’re encouraging all GPs to quickly sign up on NEHR.

5. Temasek is going to roll out community testing via imported testing booths (!)
The private labs will be running the Covid tests for them.

6. Currently there are 170 GP clinics which are SASH clinics. That’s an encouraging response from the GP community.

7. The current available POC antibody test kits are not reliable.
The manufacturer had quoted over 90% sensitivity but when MOH tested them, it was only about 30% sensitivity!

Dukes serology test is more sensitive than the POC kits.
MOH will be doing more serology testing in the coming weeks.

8. They are coming up with protective face shields for the general public.
But these are not for HCWs in high risk clinical situations.

9. Dr Mak said the circuit breaker was meant to stop local community transmission. It wasn’t intended for the situation currently seen in the FW dorms.

MOH will be watching the numbers very carefully this weekend to see if the local numbers come down. This will determine if the CB needs to be extended or not.

---

[9:43 pm, 17/04/2020] ☸️  Danny 心:
As we conscientiously debate and observed the circuit breaker measures - we must not lost track of the bigger picture :-
(1) Circuit breaker measures is to stop the chain of local transmission - so that the health of residents in Singapore must not be endanger.

(2) Economy must continue to survive and engine must not stop - albeit functioning behind the background - through telecommuting, eCommerce, Digital Economy and eDelivery.

(3) We must be mindful that the Country has spend $59.9 billion on the circuit breaker to ensure the chain of local transmission is broken.
We have already drawn out on our reserve of $21 billion - do everyone want to continue to burn our money away by not taking the circuit breaker measures seriously?

(4) We must also bear in mind that if we don't succeed in keeping the infection down and flatten the infection curve :-
- some business may not be able to survive
- some people may start to lose their jobs
- cause tremendous strain on our hospital facilities and tired out our medical personnel toiling round the clock from Dec 2019 to Apr 2020 --- 5 months already - and may burn them out.
- and the Country may have to continue to burn more of our National savings and reserves to extend the circuit breaker measures.

The above are the bigger picture that we must always bear in mind - in our input to REACH ---- that we must never lose the big picture.
Our ideas must focus on  trying how to bring the infection number down, community spreading down and our ultimate KPI as a whole is to flatten the curve.

---

[9:53 pm, 17/04/2020] ☸️  Danny 心:
(1) Most important, this Circuit Breaker measures is the best time for the business in Singapore - to transform business in Singapore to adopt eCommerce, Digital Economy, eTransaction, eDelivery ---- that ITM (Industry Transformation Map) has set out to do for the 23 industry sectors.

(2) We have mixed result prior to the pandemic.

(3) Now with this pandemic hitting our Economy with furore - and force people to work online and remotely ---- it is the best opportunity presented for our business to switch instanteously and with urgency into eCommerce, Digital Economy, eTransaction, eDelivery etc --- in order to survive.

(4) This seems like "Blessing in Disguise" --- a small light in Universe of Deep Darkness.

(5) When pandemic are finally defeated one day ----- our business will have been successfully transformed - as what ITM has orignially set out to achieve --- with little effort to entice or push it - it is driven by a crisis.

----

Wednesday, April 15, 2020

REACH - 52. How you cope in enhanced circuit breaker (SK)
16 Apr 2020 (12 pm - 10pm)

REACH
[11:59 am, 16/04/2020] +65 8637 2164: Dear contributors,
Welcome back! ☺️
⏰ Our chat will be open till 10pm today.
REACH is constantly taking note of all the feedback and suggestions shared on our WhatsApp chats, and will send them to relevant authorities for consideration.
📢 Topic: 📢
Today marks the 10th day of the Circuit Breaker period. How are you adjusting to the new normal?
---

Carol
[12:14 pm, 16/04/2020] : Whats your point about mentally unsound patient  ?

[12:18 pm, 16/04/2020] ☸️  Danny 心:
1. Look out when anyone walk pass this place for falling object.
2. Inform police to take action in case this guy injured or kill anyone.

Carol
[12:20 pm, 16/04/2020] : I see....  👍🏻👍🏻👍🏻

----

[1:31 pm, 16/04/2020] ☸️  Danny 心:
====
CNA 15 Apr 2020
NOVEL CORONAVIRUS CASES IN SINGAPORE
New cases announced on Apr 15 447
Confirmed cases so far 3,699
Recovered 652
Still in hospital 1,496
In isolation 1,540
Deaths 10
---
[6:01 pm, 15/04/2020] ☸️  Danny 心:

My close friend contribution :-
(1) Covid19 is teaching the world many lessons. One of which is mathematics. Please see attached 6 day forecast for singapore from 12 apr to 19 apr. Given yesterday's new cases we are already heading towards the worser scenario (source : http://rocs.hu-berlin.de/corona/docs/forecast/results_by_country/). Moving forward, we heading in the direction of 4000+ to 5000+ cases by Sun, 19 apr.

(2) Note :- we are now at 3,699 - my close friend mathematical projection of 4000+ to 5000+ cases by Sun, 19 apr --- is not too far off.

----

Straits Times
PUBLISHED APR 15, 2020, 10:42 PM SGT
Record 447 new coronavirus cases in S'pore, of which 404 are linked to dormitories
"However, it added that the number of new cases among work permit holders has increased significantly from 48 cases per day in the week before this to 260 cases per day in the past week. This is in part because of efforts to undertake more active testing of the workers."
--
[6:01 pm, 15/04/2020] ☸️  Danny 心:

My close friend contribution :-

5 c. Aggressive interventions is key here. It may already be a forgone conclusion that there are large numbers of asymptomatic cases waiting to be discovered. Everyday that these cases are not identified, then the numbers may double. Aggressive testings is key. Devise a systematic way to segregate the infected and healthy within each block eg designate specific levels for the infected and move the healthy ones to green zone. When numbers grow bigger, designate specific blocks for the infected and move healthy ones to green zone blocks. And keep sanitizing the entire area. In effect, we are systematically converting the dorms into covid isolation and recovery centres. Should the cases develop into serious cases, then transfer them to hospitals. The idea is to minimise contact with the SC/PR group as we have good chance of seeing zero growth in that group.

My close friend: So we are really heading for 5000 this sunday.

My comment : I think you are right due to aggressive testing, we are seeing more cases coming out from dorm.
This may seem bad, but good to weed out those mild asymptomatic cases.
When all the test in dorm is over, we should see a dip in the numbers.
But hospitals will be over strain.

Good thing that community spreading is tapering down now to 43.

[2:46 pm, 16/04/2020] ☸️  Danny 心: 43 community spreading means the circuit breaker measures are working.


REACH
[3:00 pm, 16/04/2020] : 📢 New Topic: 📢
How can we better encourage all residents to comply with the Circuit Breaker measures?

---
Eugene
[12:45 pm, 16/04/2020] : can i check is the mask wearing requirements also enforced for the essential workplaces too?

Evonne
[12:46 pm, 16/04/2020] : now step out hse nia alrd must wear
[12:46 pm, 16/04/2020] : you say neh ?

Phyllis
[12:46 pm, 16/04/2020] : Yes all must wear mask in the office

Eugene
[12:46 pm, 16/04/2020] : alright thanks for clarifying

---

Eugene
[2:53 pm, 16/04/2020] :
Covid-19 - The Singapore Situation
https://mobileapp.nlb.gov.sg/spotlight/pandemics/covid-19-singapore-situation

----

Tuesday, April 14, 2020

REACH - 51. Enhanced dorm testings (SK)
15 Apr 2020 (12 pm - 10pm)

REACH
[11:34 am, 15/04/2020] : [Sent by Gov.sg - 15 Apr]
COVID-19: Mask up when out
Stay at home, unless for essential trips
😷 All must wear a mask when outside their homes:
- On public transport, taxis, private hire cars
- Walking to or from, or at markets
- If you are an essential worker, at your workplace
No need to wear a mask if you are engaged in strenuous exercise (eg. jogging, brisk walking)
☝ Must put on mask after exercise
👶 Mask-wearing is not recommended for young children below the age of two for safety reasons
- Enforcement will be flexible for groups with difficulties wearing a mask, eg. children with special needs
🚫 It is an offence to disobey this advisory:
- First-time offenders: Fine $300
- Repeat offenders: Higher fines or prosecution
More: Go.gov.sg/mustwearmask

[11:54 am, 15/04/2020] : Greetings from REACH
A warm welcome to those who have just been added to this chat group.
The topic for today will be posted shortly.
Gentle reminder on our Terms of Use:
https://go.gov.sg/reach-whatsapp-terms
Megan 😊

[12:02 pm, 15/04/2020] : Dear Contributors,
Welcome back!
📢Topic📢
The Inter-agency Taskforce is containing the transmission of COVID-19 at foreign workers (FW) through a three-pronged approach:
• Contain the spread in dorms where clusters have formed;
• Prevent a spread in dorms with no clusters, and
• Move out and test all workers who are still needed for essential work
This will include reducing the number of workers in the dormitories and also implementing a medical support plan at all dormitories.
👉DELIVERED REMARKS BY MANPOWER MINISTER JOSEPHINE TEO AT MTF PRESS CONFERENCE ON 14 APRIL 2020: https://www.moh.gov.sg/docs/librariesprovider5/2019-ncov/delivered-remarks-by-manpower-minister-josephine-teo-at-mtf-press-conf-14-apr-2020.pdf
👉Key Actions to Manage Transmission of COVID-19 in All Dormitories:  https://www.mom.gov.sg/newsroom/press-releases/2020/0414-key-actions-to-manage-transmisison-of-covid-19-in-all-dormitories
What are your views on the Inter-agency Taskforce’s actions to contain transmission within the Foreign Worker dormitories?
👉https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/singapore/covid-19-foreign-worker-dormitories-medical-teams-doctors-nurses-12640818

----

[1:09 pm, 15/04/2020] ☸️  Danny 心: ----
• Contain the spread in dorms where clusters have formed;
• Prevent a spread in dorms with no clusters, and
• Move out and test all workers who are still needed for essential work
---

Part 1
[6:46 pm, 13/04/2020] ☸️  Danny 心:
Joint Contribution with my close friend :-

(1) The rise in unlinked cases (167 on 12 apr) and large number of cases (in the hundreds) is alarming as this suggests community spread is (i) becoming pervasive (ii) likelihood that asymptomatic persons are contributing to the rapid spread and (iii) current method of contact tracing is unable to cope.

(2) we hope that the relevant authorities widen the test criteria for covid19 e.g. It was reported that a confirmed case was having fever and cough but was not tested and after the symptoms persisted for several days and was finally tested and confirmed. During the period where the symptoms appear to confirmed it might have spread to several others and chain of transmission proliferates exponentially. When community spread has become pervasive, can the authorities consider widening the test criteria e.g. Persons who showed symptoms and worked in public facing environment should be tested.

(3) In the case of diamond princess cruise ship, asymptomatic cases constitute 18%. In south Korea case, 20% out of 9000 studied. This is a very worrying statistic. In the case of outbreaks at foreign workers dorms, our foreign workers are like the passengers on board of diamond princess cruise who are isolated within their cruise ship cabins. The covid19 virus thrives in the environment and invisibly being carried around. Can we plead with the authorities to rapidly test and isolate and treat those workers who already have been infected and not wait for symptoms to appear please. From the humanity standpoint, we are responsible for their well being. From the pandemic standpoint, we cannot afford to let the cases explode.

(4) With the large daily number of cases and if these were a result of community asymptomatic spread, contact tracing based on closed contact will need to be enhanced. Can the authorities look into contact tracing using mobile signals. The privacy issue related to such tracing should be allowed during such special situation. Once a person is confirmed, can the authorities retrieve from Telcos the mobile signal logs related to the person in question and trace his/her movement over the past 14 days. And all the related mobile signals that were in close vicinity.  We can them identify all the persons who have come close the the confirmed case and perform tests in them on them. If positive, isolate and treat quickly without waiting for symptoms to appear and isolate those who are tested negative.
---

[1:09 pm, 15/04/2020] ☸️  Danny 心: ---

[8:33 pm, 13/04/2020] ☸️  Danny 心:
Part 2 - Ring fencing a bigger target.

DRAFT :-

Key points are :-
(1) Ring fencing a bigger target.
(2) Then widen criteria to test.

2 Things that we felt have loopholes - that can be done better (at the backdrop of more and more local transmission)

(1) We are getting increasingly more and more concern as local transmission - is now the predominant infection source. Imported infection is very low and in 13 Apr 2020 is zero.

(2) What is worst, now the main transmission sources come from unlink cases :-

13 Apr 2020 - 167 cases (where 141 are foreign workers working in dorm) and the rest are residents.
12 Apr 2020 - 119 unlink cases
10 Apr 2020 - 71 unlink cases

(3) We felt that mild asymptomatic cases could be the major infection sources in our local transmission.

(4) If this is the case, 2 things we do currently may not go right and may have flaws :-
a. Contact tracing and Testing
b. Quarantine in dorm and Testing


a. Contact tracing and Testing
- by identifying the infected person - and trace those people he/she contacted with - may have misssed important infection sources :-

- eg. the toilet he/she visit (as he/she may discharged droplets and virus in wash basin and toilet bowls.

- eg. infected person use his contaminated fingers to press the lift buttons, hold the handrail in MRT or bus or sneeze or cough in the lift.

- eg. infected person eat in food court and contaminate the chairs, tables, utensils etc

- although other people did not come into contact with this infected person --- they may still get infected - that result in the many unlink cases.

- Tracetogether mobile apps - will not be able to detect such unlink cases.

- So even if the contact tracing is 100% successful and all those who come into contact with the infected person are trace through the Tracetogether apps (assume all people installed) or detective means, tested and quarantine or Stay at Home ----- the above infection sources can still infect healthy people that come into contact with contaminated areas --- as tracetogether won't tell where the infected person has leave his/her trace of contamination.
Even through personal interview, he/she may not remember all the places he/she goes.


b.  Quarantine in dorm and Testing

- Currently, we are using gold standard test ktis - a very accurate lab test - that take about 1 day to know the result.

- And in total, can only conduct about 2,900 to 3,000 test a day.

- In a dorm that are currently quarantine, there are 24,000 foreign workers - and it will need 8 to 9 days to complete.

- While waiting for the tests, there could be more infection even though social distancing may be implemented as mild asymptomatic cases may sneeze or cough and infect the doors, chairs, water basin, toilets, food, utensils, TV, gadgets - and anyone touch if may get infected - if the tests are not done fast enough.

- This could have explained why we have 141 dorm workers are infected as unlink cases in 12 Apr 2020.

----
[1:09 pm, 15/04/2020] ☸️  Danny 心: ----

Part 3 - Widen criteria to test.

Proposed 2 Alternative approaches to plug the loopholes

(1) And we will like to propose an alternate perspective and approach (that deviate from how the above 3 things are done) - as the number of local transmission cases and unlink cases are on the rise every day.

a. Contact tracing and testing
- Based on the scenario described in Part 1, where vicintiy and surface areas can be contaminated by infected persons ---- Cannot be based on close contact anymore.

- Adjusting Contact tracing approach become important.

- "Like I heard in HK", one person infected , entire block qurantined, everyone in the block need to be tested and the whole block need to be disinfected.

- By using this approach - we can catch and weed out those mild and asymptomatic cases where they don't come into contact with the infected person - but got infected by contaminated surfaces, aerosol left in the air.

- Thus we felt that using Tracetogether mobile apps and even detective legworks - will not fully cover all the contaminated areas as well as those people who don't come into contact with the infected person - but got infected by touching contaminated areas (as tracetogether don't identify areas that the infected person visit and people may tend to forget certain place they visit when interview by detective).

- A more effective method is to use location-based tracking - such as mobile signal data, GPS location tracking that we can collect from the respective Telcos - that provide all contact data for contact tracers to scientifically traced all people in the vicinity that is visited by the infected person - and get all these people tested, quarantine if need be.
(Question :- Is it possible to use mobile signal tracing to trace all the places that the person has visited over the past 14 days? And trace all the signals that were in the same premises around the same time?
Answer :- Yes. All are logged into the syslog.)


- There is a need to widen the criteria for tests - as we know that there is a limit a test can be done per day using our golden standard test kits - that need lab test to verify the outcome and will need a day to know the test result.

- As such, there is a need to have a faster and cheaper tests --- that is a 10 minutes rapid test kit to quickly test those people in the vicinity that have no close contact with the infected person - though with 95% accuracy.

- For those that show symptoms and for those that come into contact with the infected person --- the golden standard lab test kit - can be retested on these people - to ensure they are not infected - if yes - then sent to hospital for treatment, else quarantine at home.
(The point is - Even if there 95% accuracy, can quickly isolate the infected.
The key is - do a thorough test of all foreign workers to weed out all mild asymptomatic cases.)


b.  Quarantine in dorm and Testing
- As foreign workers are so many and even by practising social distancing - it is still possible to get infected by contaminated surfaces as mention in scenarios described in Part 1.

- And in total, as we can only conduct about 2,900 to 3,000 test a day using golden lab test kits ---there is a need to quickly ramp up the tests before more and more foriegn workers got contaminated --- as evident in 141 foreign workers are infected on 12 Apr 2020.

- Thus using the 10 minute rapid test kits will be one way to speed up the dorm foreign workers testing - to cover all foreign workers to weed out the mild asymptomatic cases.

- For essential jobs, foreign workers need to undergo the golden standard lab test - as they will need to go out to community to work - and if not 100% proven - can infect the community.

- For those who are symptomatic, golden standard lab test also need to be conducted - and if found infected - got to be treated in hospitals.

Summary :-
- We felt that the above 2 approaches will  be able to plug the gaps and bring down the number of local transmission - either through unlink cases, new clusters or continue infection in foreign workers dorms.

------
------

[1:15 pm, 15/04/2020] ☸️  Danny 心:
Coronavirus: Repeated circuit breakers may be needed until vaccine is developed, warn experts
Straits Times
PUBLISHED APR 14, 2020, 8:26 PM SGT
https://www.straitstimes.com/singapore/coronavirus-experts-warn-repeated-circuit-breakers-may-be-needed-until-vaccine-is?utm_medium=Social&utm_campaign=STFB&utm_source=Facebook#Echobox=1586869951

---

--

[5:17 pm, 22/03/2020] ☸️  Danny 心:
Having been discussing this with a close friend in private chat group - about how to help to slow and stop the rising covid-19 case imported cases into Singapore recently - due to 2nd wave infection from the World (after the 1st wave from Wuhan epicenter).

1. 1st wave of infection is from 1 source (Hubei Wuhan) and mainland China --- where we can do a good border control --- where our checkpoints will just target China visitors or other visitors travelling to China ---- with healthcheck and quarantine for suspected cases ---- thus we can keep our infection rate low --- single digit infection.

2. Now with 2nd wave of infection from the whole World --- where many Countries have been turned into many epicentre sources ---- we see a spike of imported infection coming from Europe, US and possibly ASEAN --- that is why we see a double digit infection and 2 death.

Part 1
Thus 2 enhanced measures will need to be stepped up :-
(1) Enhanced Border measures - just announced by the Govt.
(2) Enhanced measures to prevent Community Spreading
--- in order to keep our infection down locally.

--- aka datang .... to value add on the 2 enhanced meausres

Part 2
---

[5:30 pm, 22/03/2020] ☸️  Danny 心: ....
Part 2

(1) As most Singaporeans, PRs and long-term pass holders are returining from overseas travel during the school holidays - it is likely we will see a spike in imported infection.
(Anyway, the statistics show that 70 - 90% are imported cases --- infection result from overseas travel).

(2) It is thus imperative to tighten and enhance our border control ---- to prevent imported cases from infecting the community that lead to community spreading.

(A) Enhanced Border measures
- RIghtly. Govt announced enhanced border measures will be our important strategy to keep imported cases down, quickly identify suspected cases 1st hand and impose strict control on all who travel overseas at home or quarantine to prevent spreading to Community.
- Enhanced border measures include :-
(1) No short term overseas travellers allowed into Singapore or in transit
(2) Deter Singaporeans or residents to go for non-essential overseas travel (especially leisure or tours).
(3) Encourage business to defer their staff from business travelling unless absolutely essential. And for those who travel must undertake all precautionary measures to protect their staff from infection.
(4) All those who return from overseas travel - have to undergo health check, stay-home-notice and quarantine for suspected cases (to prevent community spreading) to the Community.

--- Let us analyse the above measures objectively --- are they sufficient measures to bring in imported cases to infect our Community :-
(1) If residents are prevented from travelling overseas --- no infection from overseas --- passed.
(2) If no short term overseas travellers allowed or in transit --- no infection from overseas --- passed.
(3) If no business travelling overseas and come back --- no infection from overseas --- passed.

(4) But for those who need to travel overseas for business and back ---- possible infection --- immediate healthcheck - compulsory stay-home or quarantine --- possible infection and possible infection to family members ---- fail.
(5) For those that refused to listen but want to travel overseas for tours and leisures ----- possible infection --- immediate healthcheck - compulsory stay-home or quarantine --- possible infection and possible infection to family members ---- fail.

(So point 4 and 5 ---- are the biggest contributors to our imported cases).

My close friend suggest using the infection curves -- a math model --- "spike-cool", "spike-cool" approach --- to break the infection --- to slow the infection and to break the infection momentum --- which can apply to both imported cases as well as to local community spreading.

Part 3 -

aka datang .....

---

Part 3
My close friend observation of the Worldwide covid-19 infection trend :-
(1) Explosion into epicentre in Wuhan - and the whole bloc is China
(2) Explosion into epicentre in Italy - and the whole bloc is Europe
(3) Explosion into epicentre in New York - and the whole bloc is USA
(4) Explosion into epicentre in Iran - and the whole bloc is Middle East
(5) There is a fear that ASEAN ---- could be another Bloc.
--- and if all the above Blocs go out of control ----- the whole World including Singapore could be turn into a tsunami that overwhelm the whole world.

Here is my close friend's text :-
Have we observed how living creatures on the beach creatures survive? There are lessons we can learn from them. When the tide rises, these living creatures burrow into sand or take refuge inside the crevices of rocks and hide out. When the tide recedes, they come out to find food. Covid-19 resembles the tide and we are now like these beach creatures finding the optimal way to survive. The first wave was when Wuhan and later China became the first epicentre of covid 19. Subsequently, italy became covid 19 epicentre of Europe and Europe is becoming like second China two months ago. New York city is the epicentre of US and may become another large bloc. Iran is the epicentre of middle east. Our neighbours are seeing large increase in New covid cases which means SE Asia is going to be a bloc. Each time there's a surge of covid cases that affect us, it's like a tide that hit the beach. If all regions' covid cases go out of control, that will be a tsnaumi. Let's assume that the world work hard to contain covid 19 , then we will be seeing waves of tides. Can our measures then be stringent to aim at letting the mild cases clear then relax the measures. Tighten again when cases increase, loosen when numbers fall. This is help us survive through a period until the covid is well contained world wide or when a vaccine is available.
Something like this? Followed by specifics"

Part 4 -- aka datang ...
---

[6:41 pm, 22/03/2020] ☸️  Danny 心: ---

Part 4 - Infection Curves Math Model  - "spike-cool", "spike-cool" approach --- to break the infection for Imported cases until vaccines are ready (estimated to be 18 months later)
(1) The "spike-cool", "spike-cool" approach is to reduce the number of infection down - so that it become more manageable - vis-a-vis our MOH/Police contact tracers, enforcers (to ensure people legally required to stay at home or quarantine and finally enough hospital beds, ventilators, medical equipment and logistics to treat infected patients.
(2) The analogy of "spike-cool", "spike-cool" approach - means when spike in infection comes --- tighten with enhanced border control to achieve a math number - that can achieved the manageable infection rate - to prevent overwhelming our resources to manage the infection.
(3) This "tighten and relax", "tighten and relax" --- border control must be done - everytime we see a spike from imported cases from abroad.
(4) As we know, there are new "epicenter" being created all over the World - 1st in wuhan, then in italy, then in new york, then in iran and ASEAN is simmering.
(5) The "tighten and relax", "tighten and relax" rule --- will have to go in tandem to the above world development - with the enhanced border control as mention in Part 2 - using the "Infection curve math model" as the guide to ensure infection curve go below "our medical and enforcement facilities" curve.

Here is my close friend message :-
"Leaders are talking about flattening the infection curves. This is about spike- cool, spike-cool repeatedly until vaccine is available.the spike must be way below the healthcare capacity because we don't know how many asymptomatic people are out there.
Tmr is the start of school term. By June holidays we should aim to second cool wave.
This is like how breach creatures adapt and survive the rising and retreat of tides. Low tide, come out and look for food. High tide, barrow and seek refuge under the sand and amongst rocks
I also disagree with the message that when there are too many cases, mild symptomatic patients can stay at home. That was said when people thought that covid was more similar to h1n1. But covid is much more lethal and very infectious. Focus should be the clear the number of mild symtomatic cases. So this model gives time to clear the easy cases and bring down the total number of active cases"

(6) My close friend is concern with the "asymptomatic mild case" -- that could go undetected but can infect people.
Suggest that any close contact with the confirmed cases --- should also be tested with test kit to sieve out the "asymptomatic mild case"  - so that they will not go around to infect others.

[7:04 pm, 22/03/2020] ☸️  Danny 心: ---
Part 5

With the backdrop of more returned overseas travellers, and the likely spike in imported cases --- as well as the need to keep our school children in schools (as students can't stop learning and parents still need to work - and cannot stay at home to take care of the children ---- Enhanced measures to prevent Community Spreading) must be adopted.

(B) Enhanced measures to prevent Community Spreading
(1) Govt just announced social distancing in hawker centre, F&B etc,  split workforce in public service, encourage business to do likewise, avoid 250 participation gatherings in any events, cancel senior activitiers like karaoke, do remote telecommuting, encouraging more virtual tours, or virtual events without crowd congregation etc --- within the Community. These are very good measures ---- and can they stop or reduce infection ---- Analysis :- cannot completely stop ---- but can reduce infection (because there could be "asymptomatic mild case" that have not been detected.

(2) Thus my close friend suggested (and want to "value add" to the above local enhanced measures --- to ensure that those "asymptomatic mild case" must be actively sieved out ---- eg. those who have been served "Stay Home Notice" or "quarantine" --- or those who come close contact with confirmed or suspected cases ----- should all be tested with the test kit.
Better still use the identified effective method of tests eg :-
- nose swab test
- saliva test
- blood test
- faeces test
to sieve out all likely cases --- to cover all "asymptomatic mild case".

(3) Only then, we are sure within the Community ---- all are "healthy" with no hidden cases.

(4) Then we will be very sure "Community Spreading" won't happen.

(5) This is known as the Initial "Spike" to do more coverage local test and then "Relax" --- once we have covered sufficient ground.

Here is my close friend's message:-
"Leaders are talking about flattening the infection curves. This is about spike- cool, spike-cool repeatedly until vaccine is available.the spike must be way below the healthcare capacity because we don't know how many asymptomatic people are out there
Tmr is the start of school term. By June holidays we should aim to second cool wave
I see high end places of interest offering virtual tours, online broadcasting. New business models and adaptations to last a long time not just covid periods
This is like how breach creatures adapt and survive the rising and retreat of tides. Low tide, come out and look for food. High tide, barrow and seek refuge under the sand and amongst rocks
I also disagree with earlier message that when there are too many cases, mild symptomatic patients can stay at home. That was said when people thought that covid was more similar to h1n1. But covid is much more lethal and very infectious. Focus should be the clear the number of mild symtomatic cases. So this model gives time to clear the easy cases and bring down the total number of active cases."

---


[6:01 pm, 15/04/2020] ☸️  Danny 心:

My close friend contribution :-
(1) Covid19 is teaching the world many lessons. One of which is mathematics. Please see attached 6 day forecast for singapore from 12 apr to 19 apr. Given yesterday's new cases we are already heading towards the worser scenario (source : http://rocs.hu-berlin.de/corona/docs/forecast/results_by_country/). Moving forward, we heading in the direction of 4000+ to 5000+ cases by Sun, 19 apr.


(2) Someone has also diligently compiled and tabulated covid cases in singapore. Please see attached. We need to divide and conquer this problem.

(3) Import cases formed about 19.5% and for the past few days it has stopped growing until gov decided to reopen the border. This is good news. Travel should seriously stop until we have a handle on the larger 80%.

(4) a. Singaporeans and PRs contributed to about 25%  of total confirmed cases but please don't be too quick to blame our foreigner counterpart. This group has seen 60% increase over the past two weeks.

b. So we all have a civil duty to stay at home, remind our family members, extended family members to abide by the law and social distancing rules.

c. Are all the dorms been isolated? One way is to avoid cross infections between SC/PR/permit holders living outside dorms and the foreigner pass holders living in dorms.

d. Rapid tests all those quarantined related to the SC/PR/pass holders living outside dorms. Identify the infected whether they show symptoms or not and isolate them.

e. The whole objective is to quickly move to a zero growth state in this category. In the absence of statisticon recovered cases in this group, our hope is to see the zero growth in 3 weeks time and consider cooling off circuit breaking for this group but making sure no contact with foreigners living in the dorms.

(5) a. Foreigners who are long-termed passholders are forming 55% of our total confirmed cases and the bulk of the numbers exploded in just a  short span of 2 weeks! The majority of them are living in dorms. If we don't aggressively intervene, the consequence will be unforgiving.

b. what and how we arrived here,  is of lesser importance. There is no use crying over spilled milk. If the past holds lessons for us, let's learned it with humility. How to bend the curve and stop the exponential explosion is of utmost importance now.

c. Aggressive interventions is key here. It may already be a forgone conclusion that there are large numbers of asymptomatic cases waiting to be discovered. Everyday that these cases are not identified, then the numbers may double. Aggressive testings is key. Devise a systematic way to segregate the infected and healthy within each block eg designate specific levels for the infected and move the healthy ones to green zone. When numbers grow bigger, designate specific blocks for the infected and move healthy ones to green zone blocks. And keep sanitizing the entire area. In effect, we are systematically converting the dorms into covid isolation and recovery centres. Should the cases develop into serious cases, then transfer them to hospitals. The idea is to minimise contact with the SC/PR group as we have good chance of seeing zero growth in that group.

d. For the healthy group living in the dorm, continue to educate and inform them of status. All foreign workers are important to us, when we go back to work, the soldiers have to be there!

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Ron Ho
[6:10 pm, 15/04/2020] : I have the same feeling. I think within a week, local community spread, excluding clusters and dorms, will hit 300 per day. Our stern measures were 3 weeks too late to implement.

---

[12:55 pm, 09/04/2020] ☸️  Danny 心:
How does upgraded Internet Infrastructure help us to stay home in this circuit breaker duration?
(4) Just hope that redundancy are build into the Internet infrastructure to the home - and will not break down or disrupted - as many people are working at home or receiving digital entertainment from home.
Any internet disruption - will cause people to come out into the street again.

Dan
[6:39 pm, 15/04/2020] : Reach, MCI should order an inquiry on why starhub connection is down for the people during WFH period.

Stella
[6:45 pm, 15/04/2020] : Perhaps good to  have family members subscribing to different service providers as a contingency plan.

Jimmy Chew
[6:49 pm, 15/04/2020] : Thanks maybe should do that
[6:50 pm, 15/04/2020] : first time happened, my friend got kick out of a meeting and he is the host, haha

Rama
[6:52 pm, 15/04/2020] : 😂😃😅🤣

Dan
[6:46 pm, 15/04/2020] : Its the home network that is affected. Using phone to work since then...

Rama
[6:46 pm, 15/04/2020] : Yes

Stella
[6:47 pm, 15/04/2020] : Time wasted cannot be recovered. Customers have options. Deals could be lost, and money 😓🥴

Stella
[6:48 pm, 15/04/2020] : Glad your mobile data is working when WiFi is down.

[6:48 pm, 15/04/2020] ☸️  Danny 心:
[12:55 pm, 09/04/2020] ☸️  Danny 心:
How does upgraded Internet Infrastructure help us to stay home in this circuit breaker duration?
(4) Just hope that redundancy are build into the Internet infrastructure to the home - and will not break down or disrupted - as many people are working at home or receiving digital entertainment from home.
Any internet disruption - will cause people to come out into the street again.

[6:53 pm, 15/04/2020] ☸️  Danny 心: Look like my prophecy come true.

Dan
[6:54 pm, 15/04/2020] : Your 天地人?

[6:58 pm, 15/04/2020] ☸️  Danny 心:
Ha ha ha ha.
This is science lah.
1 lambda in a fiber 16 Gbps.
If exceeded will get congested.
Because the fiber are delivering video content on top of voice and data.
If don't aggregate bandwidth or build redundancy, then there will be congestion and if no redundancy, when 1 backbone fail no redundant backbone to take over.

[6:59 pm, 15/04/2020] ☸️  Danny 心:
Redundancy and aggregated bandwidth are usually provided in commercial areas, but not residential area.
So prophecy that it may come is expected.

Leonard Lau
[7:00 pm, 15/04/2020] : It’s a DNS problem .  Once change dns setting , problem is bypassed  .

[7:00 pm, 15/04/2020] ☸️  Danny 心: Confirm dns problem, not able to resolve IP address to URL?

[7:01 pm, 15/04/2020] ☸️  Danny 心: I am not using starhub, cannot troubleshoot.

Leonard Lau
[7:04 pm, 15/04/2020] : The RC has been provided by StarHub on the  Facebook  page.
Please don’t speculate RC .
IMDA will deal with this issue . Thanks

[7:05 pm, 15/04/2020] ☸️  Danny 心: What is RC?

Leonard Lau
[7:08 pm, 15/04/2020] : Root Cause of problem

[7:09 pm, 15/04/2020] ☸️  Danny 心:
Oh.
Yap only starhub after troubleshooting will know

Desmond
[7:07 pm, 15/04/2020] : Feel free to join in for a "passionate" discussion :)
https://tech65webinarseries.splashthat.com/?gz=4ad7e91ec9cbd0b1&guest-access-hash=NDU3Njk5Mjg5fDI5NzIyMTI1MXwxNTg2ODYzMTE5OzQ4OTdiYmIwOWFlNzkxODBiYmIyNzNjYTNkZGM4YjEzY2E2NjJkYzgxNDQ2MmY1OGU0YWIwMTQxYWRkMDEwNzc=

REACH
[7:08 pm, 15/04/2020] : Hi everyone, gentle reminder to  keep the discussion here focused

Desmond
[7:08 pm, 15/04/2020] : my bad sorry

Kevinn Wang
[7:08 pm, 15/04/2020] : AGREE

Eugene
[7:10 pm, 15/04/2020] : Is mobile data affected or only starhub wifi?

[7:11 pm, 15/04/2020] ☸️  Danny 心: Mobile data use 4g right?

Eugene
[7:11 pm, 15/04/2020] : Yah
[7:11 pm, 15/04/2020] : Cos seems laggy on my hp

[7:12 pm, 15/04/2020] ☸️  Danny 心:
WiFi should be using starhub broadband.
So mobile data should not be affected.

Eugene
[7:13 pm, 15/04/2020] : Alright thks

Leonard Lau
[7:14 pm, 15/04/2020] : Reboot the phone and try ..

REACH
[7:15 pm, 15/04/2020] : !!

Eugene
[7:15 pm, 15/04/2020] : Ya is working now thanks

Leonard Lau
[7:19 pm, 15/04/2020] : Yes .. it is a correct practice . Should have backup if one decide to do more work from
Home.

Eugene
[7:22 pm, 15/04/2020] : Or perhaps teleco can provide free mobile data during this period so when the system is down, customers can use mobile  hotspots while WFH

[7:30 pm, 15/04/2020] ☸️  Danny 心:
Yes for those who need to work with laptop but no WiFi and broadband, can setup your handphone as mobile hotspot and then connect your laptop to the mobile phone by turning on the mobile hotspot in the laptop to access internet.

For those who need entertainment, turn on screen mirroring in the smart TV and turn on wireless display or screen mirroring in the handphone.
Then can access CNA live and other YouTube entertainment.

Eugene
[7:33 pm, 15/04/2020] : Yay u got my pt

[7:35 pm, 15/04/2020] ☸️  Danny 心:
Oh of course.
Always must have backup plan, plan A, plan B, plan C - so you will not have any handicap.

---
[9:29 pm, 15/04/2020] ☸️  Danny 心:
StarHub Chief Technology Officer Chong Siew Loong apologised to customers in a statement on Wednesday night, confirming that the disruption had come about due to a network issue with one of the telco's Domain Name Servers.

The issue affected home broadband services, with broadband services to enterprise customers unaffected, he added.

"Traffic on our network is well below our available capacity and ample redundancy has been built into our network to cater for high service levels to be delivered consistently," said Mr Chong.

"We take this incident seriously and will conduct a detailed root cause analysis so that we can prevent future recurrence."

[9:35 pm, 15/04/2020] ☸️  Danny 心:
To ensure dns is working.
1. Nslookup www.yahoo.com.sg
2. Tracert www.yahoo.com.sg
If no error and can resolve IP address and url, it means the DNS is working.

If not reset your home gateway, set top box or modem - to clear the cache of the old DNS to grab the new DNS server IP address.
---

[9:42 pm, 15/04/2020] ☸️  Danny 心:
DNS server failure very easy to troubleshoot.
If can ping outside server or trace route outside server using IP address.
But with nslookup fail or ping or trace route using URL fails, it means DNS server fail.

Peter T Ng
[9:43 pm, 15/04/2020] : Change DNS server fails?

[9:44 pm, 15/04/2020] ☸️  Danny 心: 5 minutes can identify the problem already.

Peter T Ng
[9:44 pm, 15/04/2020] : Change the DNS if server fails?

[9:44 pm, 15/04/2020] ☸️  Danny 心: Usually redundant DNS servers are used.

Peter T Ng
[9:45 pm, 15/04/2020] : Ok, so no need to specify, thanks

---

Blue and White Flag guy
[9:59 pm, 15/04/2020] :
Daily Roundup for Wetnesdeh 🌧️, 15 April 2020:
- Proposal to government to consider tightening measures but consider all grey areas
- Consider having other punishments like CWO to shame these shameless people
- To issue a clear signal to all about a full lockdown if need be as many have been complaining about the usage of the term CB as being vague

- Proposal to make 4G under all telcos free during this period as a backup in case of Wi-Fi breakdown (like what we saw today) that will facilitate HBL and WFH

Thank you and good night G2 and G2ers 😘
There is no good idea or bad idea, there will be something that works for someone.
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