Do PLA drills reveal China strategy to deny military help for Taiwan?
Observers see a pattern in recent exercises suggesting Beijing is testing its ability to restrict other countries’ access to the island
‘Anti-access and area denial’ strategy aims to deter, delay and prevent external forces from occupying or crossing an area of land, sea or air
SCMP
Kristin Huang
Published: 6:00am, 15 May, 2022
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1. It is very obvious that China will be adopting A2/AD to subdue Taiwan - a more logical and less dangerous strategy in a bit to take over Taiwan.
2. Because :-
a. Direct military invasion by landing - will suffer very high casaulties - because beach landings will be a target for arty bombings, mining, aerial bombings, ambush from the coastal lines, need massive number of landing ships to transport big number of troops to land plus many other death traps.
b. Landing troops need to be sizeable - exceeding 100,000 to make invasion possible. A massive logistic difficulties.
c. Supply lines to feed the landing troops, provide ammos etc - will be a nightmare.
d. Even with troops landed on the main island - it will face direct conventional force attack - if they are able to fortified their defence - and survive the massive missile and arty bombardment to soften the ground before landing.
e. Hence direct invasion by troop landing is a military nightmare - and not easy to win outright.
It will be more nightmarish - compare to Russia land invasion into Ukraine by land.
3. Hence, 9-dash line that surround the Southern sea route - is to prevent outside reinforcement coming through the sea route - as offshore island with anti-air and anti-ship missile - is to achieve A2/AD - by stopping aircraft carrier - from bringing their naval airforce within range less than 2,000 km to the China mainland and to Taiwan.
4. China mainland various military bases - will be a continuous supply line of ammo, food and troops as well as a formidable A2/AD bases to prevent foreign airforce and navy assistance to Taiwan.
5. Massive buildup of navy ships exceeding US fleet - will be effective in sea blockade from the North (Japan and SKorea base), from the East (Guam base) and from the South (Philipine base) - byproviding anti-air missile cover as well as anti-ship cover.
As navy ships will be big enough to store ammo and food supply - the sea and air blockade can go on for months to prevent foreign intervention, food and logistics supply to Taiwan.
6. Whether Taiwan will subcuumb to a long term naval blockade will depends on the following conditions:-
a. Does Taiwan produce enough food, water, power etc to sustain their population lives in months of blockade.
b. Does Taiwan has sufficient financial strength to keep their economy going, business going, jobs going and social cohesion - that will not trigger domestic unrest.
c. Foreign Countries pressure similar to Russia sanction eg. how effective is financial sanctions to impact China Economy and finances, direct military intervention on China, UN pressure etc.
d. Taiwan military response to break the naval blockade - eg. submarine attack on China naval ships, sea mine, missile attacks on the navy ships and fighter planes etc.
7. Having say so, military action --- is never an easy or sure win approach to reunify Taiwan.
Suntze Art of War - classify military action is the lowest form of strategy to achieve a political objective.
The highest and best form of strategy to achieve a political objective - is to win by Heart, not Might.
(Eg. so many Countries want to join EU and NATO willingly - not because of military coercion, not because of economic suppression, not because of political intimidation ---- but because these Countries want to join willingly due to :-
a. They share the mutual economic benefits, business, investment, jobs, travel etc.
b. Governance system that provide people with freedom, ability to establish people's aspiration, social interaction, harmony.
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