Maritime Global Trade

 [25/03, 11:09 am] SK: https://youtu.be/eNdVO8nFMPQ?si=BszdtD1lYpJaIh19

[25/03, 11:10 am] SK: https://youtu.be/a3EAAmZ0Lns?si=9dO7BHjQu4-rmgiw

[25/03, 11:20 am] ☸️  Danny 心: Yes.

I listen to his speech and see the news articles on his speech.

Very negative news.

External events trigger by Trump will hurt us.

We need to navigate ourselves carefully and put on our seat belts.

[25/03, 12:18 pm] ☸️  Danny 心: Thailand’s trillion-baht plan to bypass the Malacca Strait moves ahead 

https://www.scmp.com/news/asia/southeast-asia/article/3303572/thailands-trillion-baht-plan-bypass-malacca-strait-moves-ahead

Thailand’s trillion-baht plan to bypass the Malacca Strait moves ahead.

Thailand aims to complete a 100km project bisecting the country’s southern peninsula with a new highway and rail line by 2030.

[25/03, 12:19 pm] ☸️  Danny 心: SM LHL negative news are real.

[25/03, 12:58 pm] ☸️  Danny 心: But our analysis still the same.

The cargo throughput will still be small compare to huge shipping liners. 90% of world trade is done by ships.

But nevertheless, still will eat into our pie.

Arctic route the same.

[25/03, 2:28 pm] ☸️  Danny 心: SM LHL say, EU bloc do intra-bloc trade up to 80 - 90%.

ASEAN intra-bloc trade only up to 25%.

If we are able to entice ASEAN intra-bloc trade to go up to 80 - 90% then can compensate a substantial portion of the loss from US trade.

[25/03, 2:37 pm] ☸️  Danny 心: [25/03, 2:36 pm] ☸️  Danny 心: Singapore intra trade with ASEAN how many billions?

[25/03, 2:36 pm] Meta AI: Singapore's intra-trade with ASEAN was valued at S$295.6 billion in 2023, marking a 14% increase from 2019 ¹. This significant trade volume highlights the strong economic ties between Singapore and its ASEAN neighbors.

"Trade between Singapore and Asean was at S$295.6 billion in 2023.
This was about 14% lower than the total trade in goods in 2022; minister stresses importance of Asean market for Singapore companies".
But this was lower than the total trade in goods in 2022, which amounted to S$344.3 billion.

https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/international/asean/spotlight-1/trade-between-singapore-and-asean-was-s-295-6-billion-2023#:~:text=Trade%20between%20Singapore,for%20Singapore%20companies

[25/03, 2:41 pm] ☸️  Danny 心: At 25% intra trade within ASEAN, our trade is $$295.6 billion.

If we able to entice ASEAN to do intra trade up to 90%, it means our trade will ramp up to $1.064 trillion.

Then it is getting close to $1.5 trillion when we trade in US centric global supply trade.

The other $0.5 trillion, we just need to ramp up trade with China, India, Asia Pacific and EU to compensate - then we will be safe.

[[26/03, 3:16 am] ☸️  Danny 心: Also if we can ramp up intra ASEAN trade,  cargoes will visit every ASEAN ports without the fear of Arctic route, or kras or other linkways.

Even by land route, cargoes will still have to be delivered to the warehouses and logistics chain in our seaports - because all the warehouses are designed to store containers cargoes.

[26/03, 3:33 am] ☸️  Danny 心: This is assume that US centric trade goes down to zero.

But in realistic scenario, the new intra ASEAN trade and ramp up trade with other continents + reduce US centric trade (disrupted by trade war) ---- we could have achieved a higher trade growth more than $1.5 trillion if we succeeded in ramping up intra ASEAN trade + other continents trade.

Correspondingly, our GDP (3 times the size of bigger trade growth) - will deliver a bigger GDP - more than US$500 to 600 billions dollars a year.