REACH (Telegram) 70 - How do you think these sweeping new levies will impact Singapore and Singaporeans? What are the conditions required to ensure Singapore can succeed amidst these disruptions?
(SK)
04 Apr 2025 (10am - 7pm)
REACH (Telegram)
REACH Singapore, [4/4/2025 9:45 AM]
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REACH Singapore, [4/4/2025 10:00 AM]
📢 Topic 📢
Speaking to the media following US President Donald Trump’s decision to impose a 10 per cent baseline tariff on Singapore and key partners, with higher duties for many other countries, DPM Gan Kim Yong noted that this would have a significant impact on our economy. He also outlined how Singapore would respond by doubling down on efforts to keep the economy open and engaging with the US.
💬 How do you think these sweeping new levies will impact Singapore and Singaporeans? What are the conditions required to ensure Singapore can succeed amidst these disruptions?
📌 Impact of Tariffs on Singapore 📌
In February, official forecasts put Singapore's growth for 2025 at 1 to 3 per cent but this will now need to be relooked, said DPM Gan. He added that we are at the moment reassessing our economic forecast, and we may need to make adjustments in time to come.
DPM Gan said “I think our households and our businesses have to be prepared for rough waters ahead of us, and they will significantly impact our business as well as households.”
DPM Gan pointed out that some countries are already announcing retaliatory tariffs. “If these tit-for-tat tariff measures continue, it may escalate into a situation where you end up with a global trade war. This will have a significant impact on the global economy,” he added.
📌 Keeping Singapore’s Economy Open 📌
Singapore will double down on efforts to continue to keep its economy open, and to uphold the prevailing system of open, fair and free trade among like-minded countries, said DPM Gan.
He noted that the Republic is currently part of 27 free trade agreements (FTAs), which open up avenues for its businesses to explore a presence abroad and expand beyond Singapore’s shores.
It will also engage its other trade partners, especially fellow ASEAN member countries, to see how they can work together to keep their economies ticking.
📌 Engagement with the United States 📌
“Under the US-Singapore FTA, we have recourse. We are able to take countermeasures and also seek dispute resolution. However, we have decided not to do so because imposing retaliatory import duties will just add costs to our imports from the US, and this will affect our consumers and businesses,” said DPM Gan.
DPM Gan said Singapore will try to engage the US at multiple levels to understand President Donald Trump's areas of concern and see if they can be resolved.
DPM Gan said there may have been a misperception or a different understanding of the bilateral relationship between the US and Singapore. He added that there may be room for us to clarify, to explain, and hopefully we will be able to resolve some of these issues, including the tariffs.
👉 https://cna.asia/4ljzHCU
👉 https://str.sg/GXdx
----
365, [4/4/2025 10:36 AM]
Looking at our export to the US (I can only get 2023 stats), not a lot of consumer goods are sent, majority is in science or operational technology exports, such as vaccines, blood, nucleic acids, machinery with individual functions, packaged medicaments.
While tariffs do affect everything, I would think majority of our exports are more price-insensitive in nature. On the other hand, we can look at this as an opportunity. We only received the baseline 10% tariffs, it would help us look more attractive relative to our competitors, who are charged a higher tariff, on an international level.
The tariffs are meant to bring production back to the US, however such a drastic and sudden move means they may not have the infrastructure ready to ramp up production fast enough for consumers. This again means the near-term, we should still look attractive, relative to what is available in the market.
US, while taking up a good bit of our export, is not even our top export market. Hong Kong at 13.4%, China at 11%, then the US at 9.9%. Malaysia is close at 9.43%. I belive our exports are diverse enough that we can easily pivot if needed, and recover quickly from a downturn.
https://oec.world/en/profile/bilateral-country/sgp/partner/usa
https://oec.world/en/profile/country/sgp
REACH Singapore, [4/4/2025 11:00 AM]
[ Poll : I am confident that Singapore can continue to thrive amidst a more uncertain global environment. Please share your reasons in the chat. ]
- Strongly Agree
- Agree
- Neutral
- Disagree
- Strongly Disagree
REACH Singapore, [4/4/2025 11:02 AM]
Dear Contributors,
Please take a moment to participate in our polls and share your opinion. The poll questions are pinned for easy reference, and your vote is anonymous.
We look forward to hearing your thoughts on today’s topic!
Thank you.
Megan 😊
Kai Bin, [4/4/2025 11:04 AM]
I partially feel confident that Singapore will continue to strive amid global uncertainty.
REACH Singapore, [4/4/2025 12:05 PM]
Dear Contributors,
We want to HEAR MORE from you!
💬 How do you think these sweeping new levies will impact Singapore and Singaporeans? What are the conditions required to ensure Singapore can succeed amidst these disruptions?
We have had good feedback from this group, and we hope that we can keep the discussion robust and active!
Do also share your opinion by participating in our polls! The poll questions are pinned for easy reference, and your vote is anonymous.
Thank you!
Megan 😊
Jun Ming, [4/4/2025 12:12 PM]
I think it is best to stay status quo first as that Donald trump say if he thinks you are friendly he will remove the tariff
Adam, [4/4/2025 12:13 PM]
Singaporeans will do well.
Singaporeans will be richer than ever.
In an uncertain world, top rich foreign talent will flock to singapore.
These people will be granted singaporean citizenship.
Our policies encourage this so that we can maintain cmio quota and overcome low fertility. We need to welcome these new singaporeans. Those who do not are nativist and xenophobic
Jun Ming, [4/4/2025 12:14 PM]
I have read some online comments since we are the lowest in tariff among the asean other countries may use us as a transition point
Adam, [4/4/2025 12:14 PM]
Always have been
Adam, [4/4/2025 12:15 PM]
But usa most likely will clamp down. See the ai chip fiasco
Adam, [4/4/2025 12:15 PM]
And this day and age, we cant simple follow the law. Technically we can legally transship
Adam, [4/4/2025 12:16 PM]
But trump is going by sentiments
Jun Ming, [4/4/2025 12:16 PM]
At most bye bye US. Hello china
Jun Ming, [4/4/2025 12:20 PM]
I think trump wants to make fast and vigorous action cause he only have four years
Jun Ming, [4/4/2025 12:22 PM]
He wants to dissolve the current system as he thinks the current system do not benefit us
Joomua Tng, [4/4/2025 12:36 PM]
Trump is doing it for his country America
so is musk.
(the democrats is no longer the same democrats of the past...doing it for the interest of america..which is the reason...america's 2 parties politics is deteriorating from decent to rotting, and heavily indebt.)
.......
the Democrats has been systematically stealing from the country until trump exposed it with the help of musk. their intention is to prevent america from going bankrupt...but ended up finding out the democrats stealing the money and using it to fun terrorists organization.
(in fact American system is infiltrated with hostile agencies seeking to destroy America from within)
.......
whether the tarrifs or what trump does will help America..only time will show the result and outcome.
.......
Singapore is in no position to do anything at all. We are small country. it is our vulnerability, NEVER FORGET THIS UNCHANGED FUNDAMENTAL FACT about Singapore.
.........
LCL (Danny 心), [4/4/2025 12:40 PM]
This is a repeat of the history 1930s tariff war launch by US.
That lead to Deep Depression.
And then trigger the World War 2.
Except in 1930s, the tariff is 20%.
This time, Trump up the ante.
10%, 20%, 30%, 40%, 50% and more.
What will be the consequences to global economy?
Nobody can compute.
Will there be another world war, nobody knows.
Adam, [4/4/2025 12:41 PM]
In other news our gov is looking to build nuclear reactors
LCL (Danny 心), [4/4/2025 12:41 PM]
The Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act of 1930, which significantly increased import tariffs, is widely blamed for sparking a global trade war that exacerbated the Great Depression and is argued to have contributed to the economic conditions that indirectly led to World War II.
Here's a more detailed explanation:
The Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act:
This act, passed in 1930, raised tariffs on thousands of imported goods, aiming to protect American industries from foreign competition.
Global Trade War:
The act triggered retaliatory tariffs from other countries, leading to a decline in international trade and further destabilizing the global economy.
Exacerbating the Great Depression:
The Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act is seen as a major factor in worsening the severity and duration of the Great Depression, which began in 1929.
Economic Conditions Leading to WWII:
The economic hardships and instability caused by the Great Depression and the trade war created a climate that was conducive to the rise of extremist ideologies and political instability, which ultimately contributed to the outbreak of World War II.
Examples:
Germany, already struggling with the aftermath of World War I, was particularly hard hit by the trade war and the ensuing economic crisis, which helped pave the way for the rise of the Nazi Party.
The deterioration of international trade led to the formation of regional trade blocs, and countries without such blocs, like Germany, Italy, and Japan, found it increasingly necessary to use military force to annex territories with much-needed resources.
Controversy:
Doug Irwin, an economics professor at Dartmouth College and past president of the Economic History Association, wrote in 2020, that the Smoot-Hawley Tariff was "one of the most controversial tariff acts ever enacted by Congress".
Reciprocal Trade Agreements Act of 1934:
The trade walls erected by Smoot-Hawley were torn down by the Reciprocal Trade Agreements Act of 1934 which allowed the president to negotiate bilateral agreements and served as a framework for the multilateral agreements that dominated the post-World War II "free trade" world.
Source:- Google
LCL (Danny 心), [4/4/2025 12:44 PM]
Trump is repeating 1930s history of :-
Tariff war -> Deep Depression -> WW2.
People who don't learn from history, will pay the same lesson from the history.
LCL (Danny 心), [4/4/2025 12:46 PM]
This time it could be:-
Tariff war -> Stagflation (Stagnant Economic Growth, Hyperinflation) -> WW 3 (?)
Adam, [4/4/2025 12:46 PM]
Isnt stagflation already happing right now?
Adam, [4/4/2025 12:46 PM]
And somewhat hyperinflation
LCL (Danny 心), [4/4/2025 12:47 PM]
Now is a minor stagflation.
The tariff war will trigger a mammoth Stagflation.
365, [4/4/2025 12:47 PM]
Stagflation arguably yes, hyperinflation no
LCL (Danny 心), [4/4/2025 12:48 PM]
Inflation is below 10%.
Hyperinflation is double digit.
Tariffs of 10% or more trigger double digits inflation.
This is math.
LCL (Danny 心), [4/4/2025 12:51 PM]
Stagnant Economic Growth is due to :- decrease trade, decrease production, decrease consumption, decrease business activities, decrease investment, decrease port activities, decrease sea transport, air transport, land transport, decrease bunkering service, decrease financial service, business can go bankrupt, and trigger job loss.
Can even lead to social unrest - hence trigger WW.
Joomua Tng, [4/4/2025 12:52 PM]
what the government need to do is to "make" Singaporean understand the rationale behind the essential policies and decision made.
the public does not has the data, information the government has.
thud public perspective and proposal is very narrow and most self interest oriented.
..
thus government must make sure the population understand the direction and rationale of government policies
so that most, if not all, Singaporean are in the same frequency and understanding.
........
during covid, Mr LHL occasionally speaks on TV at essential moment so to make Singapore understand what is happening and doing on.
i feel it is a very good moves and judgement call from Mr LHL.
....
like wise our current government should do the same..
not only during crisis.
but during essential and planned moment...
the reason Singapore able to survive and progress after independent. is that the older generations is on the same page, frequency and in full support of our Singapore government.
however, in today's Singapore that full support and common understanding is less strong as in the past.
thus, the need to comeout and make a speech, together with ground work , to unite Singaporean common understanding.
I feel it is an important things to do.
Sun Tzu's art of war.
道，天，地，将，法
the first factor is the key . without it .. Singapore will disintegrate due to fragmented individual self's interest.
道者，令民与上同意，可与之生，可以之死，而不畏危也。
..........
LCL (Danny 心), [4/4/2025 12:54 PM]
A massive demultiplier effects of the circular flow of income that depends on trade (export, import), investment, consumption from job income.
If all these multiplier factors are hit, economic growth (GDP) implode and deflate like a balloon.
If global economy deflate, economic recession sets in for many countries.
LCL (Danny 心), [4/4/2025 12:57 PM]
Trump is a businessman - never an economist.
Elon Musk is a businessman - never an economist.
Hence if elect people who don't understand economic to govern a country - big mess will come in.
Adam, [4/4/2025 12:59 PM]
If only we also elect people who arent from saf
Adam, [4/4/2025 1:00 PM]
On the plus side, we will have loads of leaders with military in resume for ww3
Adam, [4/4/2025 1:00 PM]
Maybe thats pap's master plan all along
Jun Ming, [4/4/2025 1:01 PM]
I think gov bad in explaining policy
Joomua Tng, [4/4/2025 1:02 PM]
if they don't know economic will they be successful businessman?
maybe, yet unlikely.
yes. ultimately the president will have to make the final judgement call.
before that he as a team of professionals and experts to put up proposal and data ...for the president to make the finalize judgement and decision.
and as a business man, successful business man, their sense of weighing the odds is unlikely ordinary citizens..
LCL (Danny 心), [4/4/2025 1:02 PM]
This coming election, we better don't mess around with our votes, wanting more opposing voices in the Parliament.
We need to elect the best brains into the Government to help Singapore ride over this mammoth crisis.
Because the catastrophe of 小三灾 (3 catastrophe - Economic war, WW; pandemic; Global warming) has arrived - the manifestations of Humanity 贪嗔痴慢疑 (Greed, Hatred, Ignorance, Arrogance, Distrust).
The worst flaw of Raw Capitalism - couple with malfunction democracy - lead to such precarious situation.
Jun Ming, [4/4/2025 1:02 PM]
I think someone need to lecture what does it mean to Singapore and what are the possible outcome
LCL (Danny 心), [4/4/2025 1:04 PM]
In this very dangerous situation, the BG generals will be extremely vital to size up the geopolitical tensions that will arise.
We need their expertise to ride out any military confrontation that could arise.
Joomua Tng, [4/4/2025 1:05 PM]
nothing wrong recruiting candidate from the SAF.
there is bound to be a few that is exceptionally good.
further more...good people from SAF will not treat defense, defenses budget and security lightly.
......
besides...Mr LHL was from the SAF also...
Adam, [4/4/2025 1:07 PM]
Say, in your hypothetical world of military confrontation, where will singapore side?
Adam, [4/4/2025 1:07 PM]
Maybe with china as we have a large population who are sympathetic
LCL (Danny 心), [4/4/2025 1:07 PM]
We need all the best Cabinet Ministers and civil service - all hands on deck.
I hope Singaporean voters are wise on this - and don't play play with our lives and livelihoods.
The extremely precarious global event is no joke.
Just reflect on the 1930s tariff war will give us a page on how situations will evolve.
Adam, [4/4/2025 1:07 PM]
Or the usa, where we have f35 and defense contracts which might have a killswitch
LCL (Danny 心), [4/4/2025 1:08 PM]
Don't side anyone.
LCL (Danny 心), [4/4/2025 1:08 PM]
Just put out the "voice of reason" - to prevent the WW.
Adam, [4/4/2025 1:09 PM]
Ah yes the usual
Adam, [4/4/2025 1:09 PM]
We will monitor the situation
LCL (Danny 心), [4/4/2025 1:14 PM]
Stagflation will then turn into - a deep recession or even deep depression.
Hyperinflation could then transform into a deflation - because consumption fall drastically as spending power falls.
But for some items like food, minerals etc prices could spike because humans must eat.
And the condition of 1930s repeat itself.
LCL (Danny 心), [4/4/2025 1:16 PM]
Hence very important for Singapore to secure our food security 30x30.
Cell culture meat, plant based meat very important for us.
Adam, [4/4/2025 1:16 PM]
Dont forget about bugs
Adam, [4/4/2025 1:17 PM]
Sfa just approved 16 species of insects
Adam, [4/4/2025 1:17 PM]
Its a sustainable alternative. Probaly easier to harvest than culture
LCL (Danny 心), [4/4/2025 1:18 PM]
In fact every sectors of our economy very important.
We need all the best Cabinet Ministers intact - to ensure every of our industry sectors are intact and continue to survive if not thrive. And ensure everyone still got jobs and income to tie over.
But at least hold the fort for another 4 to 5 years until the global mess tie over.
Hopefully WW 3 won't break up as we ride out the global mess.
LCL (Danny 心), [4/4/2025 1:19 PM]
I cannot imagine myself eating insects, another life form.
Cell culture meat still ok, at least no need to kill the animals.
LCL (Danny 心), [4/4/2025 1:21 PM]
And BG generals will be important to ensure that - because the greatest win in a war - is to prevent a war from erupting.
Fighting to win war is the lowest grade of win in suntze art of war because people dies, infrastructure destruction, economic destruction.
And the mission is to prevent a WW from erupting.
Our Shangrila security forum will be important to ensure that.
Military diplomacy play an extremely important role.
Adam, [4/4/2025 1:22 PM]
You must do what you must to defend singapore in this uncertain environment. Might have to fight wars killing people. Or defend our economy by eating bugs. Both are unsavory but desperate times calls for desperate measures.
LCL (Danny 心), [4/4/2025 1:25 PM]
Hence our government leadership in the foreign stage - whether foreign affairs, military, economic development board etc will have a very busy time.
All our best Ministers must be intact and all hands on deck.
LCL (Danny 心), [4/4/2025 1:26 PM]
To Trump it is his independence day.
To humanity, this could be our "final moment" - dead or alive.
LCL (Danny 心), [4/4/2025 1:52 PM]
*Trump flaw economic policies*
https://vt.tiktok.com/ZSrMJy4bp/
@Babe:US economy is imploding showing Trump economy plan is flaw in all ways.
Yet you are picking contextual economics in supporting Trump.
@Babe:1. Government spendings massive cuts without looking into its detail with speed is a deadly train wreck.
@Babe:2. Not increasing tax but just focusing on cutting spendings is like chopping 1 wing and let another wing fly - lead to plummeting economy.
@Babe:3. increasing tariffs as fiscal revenue is a flaw economic tool - because it increase prices to consumers, invite retaliation, disrupt the most efficient global supply chain.
@Babe:4. 1930s tariff war levy by US president lead to WW2.
5. Trump is repeating it.
@Babe:6. increasing tariffs will not force companies to move to US because the world economy minus US GDP if $30 trillion is huge - $76 trillions.
Companies will want to sell to the larger global countries instead of US market only.
@Babe:Hence your flaw economic explanation to support Trump are flaws in all counts.
US tanking economy prove it.
@Babe:1. DOGE massive cuts flaw.
a. cut air controller - plane crash.
b. cut education - lose talents and competitiveness.
c. cut medical r&d and program - pandemic arises (eg. measles)
@Babe:2. Imposing tariffs trigger inflation.
3. Cutting interest rate will cause inflation to go higher.
4. Tax cut will further fuel inflation hike.
@Babe:5. Business & consumer confidence are hit - and will reduce consumption and investment - lead to job cuts.
6. Tax cut won't bring economic growth - as business are not making profit.
@Babe:7. All the mention effects of economic contagion are showing in US economy - and yet you say that Trump economic plan is on the right track?
8. Are you trying to fool everyone - with your flaw theory?
@Babe:1. The full burden of the government spending cuts fall on the 99%, whereas the richest 1% gain.
2. If the mass market 99% lose its spending power, how will the economy do well?
@Babe:US $36 trillion Treasury debt are finance predominantly by foreign countries.
@Babe:Fighting a tariff war with foreign countries will cause retaliation to start selling US Treasury bill and US lose funding to finance its fiscal budget.
@Babe:No countries in the world no matter how big and how rich can close its economy without trading with the world.
Trump is moving US into isolation.
@Babe:1. If foreign countries stop funding US$ and stop using dollars for trade in retaliation, US economy and wealth will plummet.
2. Brics already doing so.
@Babe:1. Massive reckless government spendings cut is a de-multiplier effects - US economy implode.
2. Leading to deflate business activities, reduce consumption, discourage investment & job loss.
@Babe:1. US consumer spending is the main engine of economic growth, making up 68% of the GDP.
2. Reckless spending cut, tariffs that dampen consumers spending power will cause US economy to plummet.
@Babe:You delete good comments that dispute your economic theory.
So if you are not up to challenge, don't show your videos.
LCL (Danny 心), [4/4/2025 1:54 PM]
A Maga supporter put up a video in tiktok to explain Trump's economic policies.
My response to him why Trump's economic policies are flaw.
Khai Mun L., [4/4/2025 1:54 PM]
I'll say to ignore usa for the time being and focus on other countries while improving ourselves
LCL (Danny 心), [4/4/2025 1:55 PM]
Yes.
This is the best thing we can do.
Adam, [4/4/2025 1:55 PM]
Bruh you cant just ignore a fire while its growing
Khai Mun L., [4/4/2025 1:55 PM]
Continue the work among ASEAN, so that we don't become fractured like the EU or NATO that is deeply tied to amercia economy
Adam, [4/4/2025 1:55 PM]
Or minister already all hands on deck negotiating with usa
Khai Mun L., [4/4/2025 1:57 PM]
What do we have to offer usa. Financial, economy -wise, other countries have it more than sg.
In trump's words, what cards do we have. We'll be similar to ukraine if countries decide to screw with us
Adam, [4/4/2025 1:58 PM]
We offer usa citizens buying our properties without absd
Khai Mun L., [4/4/2025 2:01 PM]
Lol, why they wanna buy property here? Europe is much more attractive.
If want cheap living, then thailand or malaysia
Adam, [4/4/2025 2:02 PM]
Unstable environment. Need a way to park their assets
REACH Singapore, [4/4/2025 2:02 PM]
📢 Topic 📢
Adam, [4/4/2025 2:02 PM]
Thai? My? Their place unstable
Adam, [4/4/2025 2:02 PM]
Americans can buy more property here without absd if they want a foot out of trumps america
Adam, [4/4/2025 2:03 PM]
We encourage that with the fta we have
Khai Mun L., [4/4/2025 2:03 PM]
With the way that locals are supporting multiple voices in government, stability is not guaranteed
Adam, [4/4/2025 2:04 PM]
But the fta policy that we have with usa was under pap dominance
Adam, [4/4/2025 2:04 PM]
We will be stable. Or at least more stable than anywhere else
Adam, [4/4/2025 2:05 PM]
Even with 10% tariff, people will flock to us because everywhere else is worse
Khai Mun L., [4/4/2025 2:05 PM]
According to trump, is only a minority of amercians that do not support him.
Let them learn it the hard way over time
Adam, [4/4/2025 2:06 PM]
If 0.1% of america buys singapore property, perhaps you can do some math how many houses are bought
Khai Mun L., [4/4/2025 2:06 PM]
Nothing is permanent. Policies can be scrapped if the ruling government is thick-skin enough.
Withdrawal from WHO, invasion of ukraine, developing nuclear weapons, much examples..
Adam, [4/4/2025 2:08 PM]
Yeah, everywhere is bad. Now where is least bad? Right here. Singapore
Adam, [4/4/2025 2:08 PM]
Pap will win this election. This guarentees singapore as a beason of stability
Adam, [4/4/2025 2:08 PM]
People will flock here
Adam, [4/4/2025 2:08 PM]
We will grow our economy
Adam, [4/4/2025 2:09 PM]
Our govt wont scrap such a free trade policy willy nilly. Stability is key to singapores success. Our contract holds weight
RY, [4/4/2025 2:09 PM]
No countries are exempted for Trump 2Apr Tariffs announcements, including SG
SG are not big enough to "retaliate" like China/Canada/EU n etc
But may seek recourse with WTO with the FTA signed earlier. However US has already withdrawn from WTO
SG is kind of "bless" that we are one of the lowest tariffs being imposed
Many economists are foreseeing world recession/depression/hyper-inflation due to Trump tariffs contests - who knows
We all know Trump using tariffs as "negotiating strategy"
As SG is too "small" to have any "negotiate power", hence we may seek to reduce trade with USA with the ever-changing Trump strategy
USA is isolating and going far from globalisation, and it is actually has much impact for US economy later
SG politicians always well-known for their far-sightedness views and efficient governance
And Trump will not be in power/good health forever, and the most maybe these 4 years, as he is ageing too
Who knows the next US President may overturn Trump crazy tariffs strategy
As US will not be able to become like China (world manufacturing factory) due to US "inefficient" labour force
China is catching up US much faster than we expected
US is not the only world consumer market afterall, as SG may expand to other markets eg middle east/africa and etc
US maybe anti-globalisation now due to Trump, but not all the world countries are anti-globalisation
SG may have to depend US in terms of military, but China for economic
Israel-Gaza war is a gd example to show that USA no longer a model for democracy to the world
Also, we may see from Ukranine/NATO fiasco, SG shd learn not to depend on US as "faces" may change, since there is no forever foe or friends in this world
Fm covid panemic, SG also learning to grow own food (if possible)
Russia able to have war, bec of her less independency eg currency/food/energy and etc
All the countries are "waking up" especially europeans, so is SG also
365, [4/4/2025 2:18 PM]
Stability has always been one of singapore's core factor. There has been enough diversification in our exports that with the tariffs charged by US, we can still pivot around to other markets. We are not hyper dependent on US for trade.
While 10% tariffs isn't great for Singapore in a vacuum, looking at other countries, we offer better value with our tariffs being the lowest. Main competitor will be US itself, but their labour cost generally is much more expensive than us as well. Competitively, we are relatively well positioned.
Other countries may apply retaliatory tariffs onto the US, but they are unlikely to apply global tariffs like the US, so there's less concern on an all out global trade war.
Even China, Japan, and S. Korea are discussing about regional free trade amongst themselves. This shows that there are sentiments still interested in free trade, where we can export more to.
Adam, [4/4/2025 2:21 PM]
You can argue that its a good thing for sg. Even if total global trade will reduce, more countries will use sg as an intermediary. Instead of us pivoting to other markets, other markets will pivot to us to trade with usa
Adam, [4/4/2025 2:22 PM]
Made in neighbor sea with cheap labor. Send to singapore to rubber stamp. Then go to usa still cheaper than native made us goods even with tariff
Adam, [4/4/2025 2:22 PM]
Our middleman economy at its finest
365, [4/4/2025 2:24 PM]
Yeah, that's a good point, but depending on how much is pivoting through us, trump might respond by adding more tariffs on us to prevent this "loophole".
We really have to be cautious about this and strike a balance on how much we want to let through before Trump notices something going on.
Adam, [4/4/2025 2:39 PM]
Yeah trump likely will clamp down on it
Adam, [4/4/2025 2:39 PM]
On the other hand, if our minister is good enough, maybe we can make him close both eyes to what we do
Jun Ming, [4/4/2025 2:48 PM]
It's either inflation where sg have no choice to continue import to us or we totally don't export from us
LCL (Danny 心), [4/4/2025 3:17 PM]
Personally, I think we can do something constructive as this Tariff War has unleash the biggest challenge in World Trade, Investment and Jobs :-
*In Short Term*
1. Our Government can negotiate with the Trump Administration - what can be done to cushion the impact of Tariff or best, remove it citing that US has trade surplus with us and FTA with us.
a. But on my hindsight, I am not hopeful (because Trump don't listen to reasoning - he only want to bully and win at all cost).
Even sign FTA agreement and contract - he won't honour.
No countries eg. Japan, Canada, Mexico, EU, Taiwan, S Korea, Vietnam - despite sending VIP to throw in goodies like investment, cut their tariffs, buy more products - can appease Trump and still levy very high tariffs on them.
Having say so, our Government at official level (civil service level) and political level (Minister level) - should still try to negotiate with something positive or more beneficial to us - hopefully.
Though I am not very hopeful....
LCL (Danny 心), [4/4/2025 3:33 PM]
2. My close friend comments :-
a. We can look at it from a different angle. Comparatively, tariffs on chinas import is 54% so it will make our exports more competitive as our tariff is 10%.
b. In the short term, it is difficult for countries to ramp up production to take advantage of situation.
c. If country A doesn't produce substitutes of China's products, then it just means that US is killing its own people by levying 54% tariffs on China goods.
d. We should persuade those countries with high tariffs to export to us and we re-export to US.
e. Entire Asia Kenna, and we are the lowest rung. It's a great opportunity if our businesses are creative enough. Capture just 5%, they will be laughing their way to the bank.
f. I'm talking about short term reaction.. take advantage of the situation first. Supply is inelastic. Even if the eventual goal is for manufacturing to go back to US, it will take a few years. And honestly, US politicians are not interested in long term goals. I agree that that the risks of global recession is real. 乱来.
g. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-04-03/us-emerges-as-biggest-loser-in-markets-from-trump-s-tariffs
US Emerges as Biggest Loser in Markets From Trump’s Tariffs
Hurting itself. First to suffer.
h. Another possible side effect is dumping. If tariffs temporatily reduce US from importing, and supply being inelastic in the short term, these "excess" may have to be dumped at lower prices esp for perishables. Sg can benefit from it and lower inflation.
LCL (Danny 心), [4/4/2025 3:36 PM]
Of course we need to do it tactfully.
Don't invite retaliatory measures.
Jun Ming, [4/4/2025 3:39 PM]
Like what I saw a video on tiktok. China is not afraid of tariff. They just need to focus on their own to create excellent products.
So my input is if our product are excellent, better than others than we should not afraid of tariff as us will continue to buy
Jun Ming, [4/4/2025 3:40 PM]
It will be a different story if us charge higher price on their export but to my understanding they only charge on their import
RY, [4/4/2025 3:43 PM]
If SG dont have the negotiate power, why waste time negotiating when USA is not the only consumer market in the world ....
In future, we know China may overtake US both economically and militarily and also innovation
Even US Nvidia CEO is with taiwan origin and he know China mkt cannot be miss
Very likely bec of Trump crazy tariffs strategy, US may also end up with hyper-inflation and depression/recession, with large unemployment
And we may anticipate/foresee political unstability in US in near future eg already protests all over US now
Work with "stable" countries that keep to their promises eg China/EU/Asean/MiddleEast n etc, rather than focusing on the ever-changing like Trump
Who knows that Trump maybe impeach like South Korea, as he is executing many strategies thru threatening eg Colombia University
Supporting Israel/Jewish community, also means how dark is US politics ...
Trump will not be in power forever, and not every country must "listen" to him, as he is not God ultimately
If another world pandemic/ recession will to happen again, Trump will sure not be able to handle eg look at how he handle covid pandemic - failure ...
Trump will not be US President
Jun Ming, [4/4/2025 3:44 PM]
This is why we need to focus on our local talent. Today tariff and tmr all American talent to go back America.
Jun Ming, [4/4/2025 3:44 PM]
We should try to self sufficient as much as possible
RY, [4/4/2025 3:47 PM]
Exactly, Russia is a gd example, bec of their many resources, their economy is not greated affected by the world sanction during russia-ukraine 3yr war
365, [4/4/2025 3:48 PM]
Resources are limited, self-sufficiency comes at a cost. Balance is required between self-sufficiency and foreign imports.
Foreign imports itself can be diversified (which I believe is already done) to further reduce risk on over reliance on any single country.
365, [4/4/2025 3:49 PM]
Other measures such as stockpiling also reduces near term risk in the event of trade war.
LCL (Danny 心), [4/4/2025 3:49 PM]
*For long term*
1. For the long term, we should not just be focus on One Big Consumption Country - putting all eggs in one basket - and let it hold everyone by its throat - worst lead to a Global Deep Depression and possibly WW3.
This is a good lesson that the Whole World should learn.
1930s Tariff war triggering Deep Depression that subsequently lead to WW2 - is a good lesson.
I hope the whole World should learn from it - and not fall into the trap of another Tariff war, Deep Depression and WW3 (this time could be nuclear war - and humanity perish).
This is a good window opportunity for the rest of the world - to promote multi-polar trade blocs and many middle power consumption blocs or countries --- to insulate the whole world of another Global trade war and another consequential World War.
RY, [4/4/2025 3:52 PM]
Talents not only in USA, many talents around the world eg India/China/Taiwan n etc
China Deepseek is a gd example of innovation vs OpenAI
China BYD cars also beat Telsa already
Look at USA Intel, if not bec of govt supporting the company, they already bankruptcy
Taiwan TSMC is a another gd example of innovation, but regret Taiwan didnt have gd govt to protect her industry
Jun Ming, [4/4/2025 3:53 PM]
I am referring foreign talent and imported citizen. Yes they are important to teach and setup companies here. But bear in mind they are from foreign land and their family members are in foreign land. Like what china have done to force people to go back by threatening their kids will not have education before
LCL (Danny 心), [4/4/2025 4:00 PM]
LCL (Danny 心), [5/2/2025 12:16 PM]
1. The only way to wriggle out of this mess - geopolitical tussling between US and China - is to promote multi-polar consumption superpowers, middle powers and middle power blocs instead of relying on 1 consumption superpower - US (through reconfigured global supply chain and trade blocs).
LCL (Danny 心), [5/2/2025 12:20 PM]
2. That means, China need to ramp up its economic activities through more innovation, create jobs, boost domestic consumption, develop less developed 2nd tier city, rural areas, boost its service sectors and put itself out as 2nd largest consumption country in the world like what US use to do.
And promote trade with its trading partners like Singapore.
And Singapore will benefit immensely if China succeeded to do so.
LCL (Danny 心), [5/2/2025 12:24 PM]
3. ASEAN with many young vibrant middle income population should also follow the same model through integrated trade and investment.
I feel that our economic integration with Malaysia Johor economic zone, Indonesia joint venture industrial park, Vietnam joint industrial park, energy grid integration etc - are very good to facilitate intra ASEAN trade.
As economic integration materialise within ASEAN, Singapore will benefit from growing trade within ASEAN as well as becoming a growing consumption middle power nations bloc.
LCL (Danny 心), [5/2/2025 12:27 PM]
4. India, will also be an up and coming middle power chasing behind China - and as long as India are willing to slowly open up their economy through investment, trade and business - our foot into India will also bear fruits for us as India middle income population consumption appetite is huge.
LCL (Danny 心), [5/2/2025 12:40 PM]
5. In Asia Pacific, there are other middle power nations on its own right eg. Japan, SKorea, Australia and to a lesser extent New Zealand.
We should see how to facilitate more trade and consumption among these countries - except the challenge is their declining population that stifle consumption and hence the margin for trade growth could be limited.
LCL (Danny 心), [5/2/2025 12:42 PM]
6. Looking afar, the biggest consumption economic bloc is the EU and UK.
I feel that if our EDB and IE enterprise work a bit harder, we can slowly grow our trade to compensate for losses in the US market by promoting Singapore as a trade hub to ASEAN and our neighbouring countries.
LCL (Danny 心), [5/2/2025 12:44 PM]
7. Next the more untapped market is South America eg. The larger middle power nations such as Brazil, Peru and Chile.
Less information on their income and consumption pattern as well as their appetite for more trade.
But a good untapped market that we can explore more.
LCL (Danny 心), [5/2/2025 12:45 PM]
8. Like South America, it also apply to Africa continent.
LCL (Danny 心), [5/2/2025 12:48 PM]
9. Middle East countries are rich and heavily dependent on oil - but increasingly stress by global countries will to go green.
Hence many rich Middle East countries are looking for ways to diversify their economies.
I think Singapore can tap this middle east market to help to bolster our trade.
LCL (Danny 心), [5/2/2025 1:00 PM]
10. Last but not least are the Central Asia Countries which are also least tapped like South America.
But their population income and consumption pattern also need more study.
LCL (Danny 心), [5/2/2025 1:05 PM]
To summarise, we need a deliberate process to map out a total "multi-polar middle power nations and middle power trade blocs and consumption nations" :-
1. We need to identify the Comparative advantage in trade, exchange of labour and resources of each trade blocs and middle powers (and ensure they have redundancy among them).
If one member within the bloc is disrupted, we can easily ramp up trade with its redundant member to ensure the trade supply chain are not impacted.
LCL (Danny 心), [4/4/2025 4:00 PM]
2. This "multi-polar middle power nations and trade blocs" consumption nations must be fully self sufficient - which should be an alternative to one large consumption nation (ie. If one day US decide to shut and isolate itself completely out of world trade - we are able to rely on this alternative trade blocs to survive) and maintain our US$1.5 trillion trade and US$501.4 billion GDP.
3. The World GDP is US$110 trillion minus US GDP US$27.8 trillion - we can still tap on US$82.2 trillion Global GDP to replace our loss if US trade war deepen.
4. Singapore is a little red dot, a mere 5.6 million population.
To find an alternate $1.5 trillion trade and maintain our $500 billion GDP is less tough compare to other bigger countries with more mouth to feed.
5. By promoting this "middle powers and middle power trade blocs" to WTO - a more comprehensive trade strategy will be conceptualised at the global stage - and made WTO mission more meaningful to exist - without the mercy of one dominating unwilling superpower that held the world trade by its throat.
6. It will also release the pressure from building up globally - that could lead to WW3 - if no alternative are found.
7. Hence multi-polar middle power trade blocs (with build in redundancy) will release the economic stress of relying on one large consumption nation to fuel the economic growth of the world countries.
8. The baton should be passed on and helm by every members of WTO.
9. Then globalisation will take on a new meaning and purpose to thrive into the next phase of global economic development -.and postpone or prevent a WW3 through a rejuvenated WTO.
10. The existence of the rejuvenated WTO will be more meaningful to ensure its gainful fulfilment of its mission of fostering trade, business, investment to ensure world prosperity and hence securing world peace.
11. A new meaning and purpose is given to Globalisation as a fuel for World economic growth - minus the negative sentiment that now fuel the far right movement and nationalisation in US and EU - as the economic fruits of globalisation, trade, investment and jobs are shared widely by all strata of the population and nations instead of concentrating on the few richest.
Jun Ming, [4/4/2025 4:01 PM]
Back to tariff I think for now talk to the us and see what are they planning to do next. We can't do much
RY, [4/4/2025 4:02 PM]
SG has to learn fm EU/covid pandemic, dont depend on USA solely
Learn to be independent, build up strong bilateral relationships with other countries
As world is round, and we have to expand our markets
SG only resource is humans and invest heavily
SG dont have much resources like other countries, but we have our uniqueness eg entreport trade/gd bilateral relationship/political n social stability/gd financial reputation n etc, that our fore-fathers have built up over the past years
Even westerners/africans are studying SG-model successful system
SG maybe small, but we are the top 5 in many areas eg airport/sea port and etc
REACH Singapore, [4/4/2025 4:02 PM]
📢 Topic 📢
LCL (Danny 心), [4/4/2025 4:03 PM]
I have written all this posts before.
I think it's even more relevant and more appropriate to bring them up again - as Trump unleash a global tariff war - that could totally change the world economic order.
It is time for us to spur the world countries to reorganize ourselves to a New World Economic Order.
Jun Ming, [4/4/2025 4:03 PM]
We only can train ourselves to be stronger in all aspects to be the best and break our best in all sectors.
RY, [4/4/2025 4:15 PM]
Fm History, every leader country will fall one day eg UK/Japan n etc
USA maybe the next, bec of crazy Trump
He dont even show respect to other countries supremacy eg want to take over panama canal and greenland and etc
USA will ultimately receive "retaliation" from other countries and the "show" is beginning
We are not US citizens, we are not obliged to 'follow/listen" to Trump
Let Trump be notorious and be isolated fm world economy these few years during his administration, as he wont live forever
SG Govt may re-focus on other "good" markets
Since SG is too small and dont have much negotiating power/resources, dont waste too much time/effort on just one market/country (USA) - my opinion always
LCL (Danny 心), [4/4/2025 4:15 PM]
"Global markets in turmoil as Trump tariffs wipe *$2.5 trillion* off Wall Street
Richard Partington Senior economics"
https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/global-markets-turmoil-trump-tariffs-181621597.html#:~:text=at%20any%20time-,Global%20markets%20in%20turmoil%20as%20Trump%20tariffs%20wipe%20%242.5tn%20off%20Wall,Richard%20Partington%20Senior%20economics,-correspondent
LCL (Danny 心), [4/4/2025 4:49 PM]
"Trump tariffs risks $700 billion blow to global GDP, with U.S. hit most.
Rising import costs to hit American corporate profits and consumer spending".
https://asia.nikkei.com/Economy/Trade-war/Trump-tariffs-risks-700bn-blow-to-global-GDP-with-U.S.-hit-most#:~:text=Trump%20tariffs%20risks,and%20consumer%20spending
RY, [4/4/2025 5:21 PM]
Increasing tariffs will NEVER be a win-win situation
That is why every country opt for FTA in the past 2 decades including SG/China/Asean
As globalisation will bring economic of scale to the world trade
Only crazy Trump is stepping backward, and implementing lost-win global trade situation
Indirectly, he is also pushing increase of cost of living to his americans, and affecting US sametime
Dont think Trump has much economic knowledge from what he is executing so far
Almost every economists are giving "warning" to USA failing economy in near future with Trump increase tariffs policy
RY, [4/4/2025 5:29 PM]
Besides, Trump is always putting inappropriate people in unsuitable position eg the Defence Minister whom has very little military background, as he was just a TV host previously
The US leaking Signal military msg fiasco is a laughing-stock for the whole world to watch
The recent Celebrity Diddy fiasco, may expect more dark politics secret leaking in near future also
In fact, we are everyday busy watching american "dramas" nowsaday
LCL (Danny 心), [4/4/2025 5:50 PM]
Anyway even without Trump launching a Global Tariff War yesterday - US Treasury debt of US$36 trillion will still be unsustainable.
One day, it will implode triggering something more serious in the financial and economic market.
We and the world should take this opportunity and current pain to wriggle out from a US dominated Economy and form a New World Economic Order not reliance on US economy, trade and finance.
It must be many multi-polar middle power economic blocs and a few Big Power Blocs to replace One Uni Economic Bloc.
REACH Singapore, [4/4/2025 6:05 PM]
📢 Topic 📢
LCL (Danny 心), [4/4/2025 6:19 PM]
Fed got to issue one Treasury bill one after another when older TB bill mature to pay creditors the principal amount and interest upon maturity - to finance US mammoth yearly recurrent fiscal spending.
Foreign countries buy their TB to support their US $ - and US debt keep accumulating.
One day, it will implode and unable to pay and service its debt. US TB bill become a junk bonds and US $ become banana money when the rest of the world boycott US.
So should exploit this tariff war opportunity to form a more sustainable new world economic order - and not let US and Trump hold the world by our necks.
RY, [4/4/2025 6:29 PM]
Totally concur, and just dont depend on USA solely
Luckily for SG Govt, we always have budget surplus to tide us over every crisis including pandemics
Thanks to our MAS/GiC/Temasek investment efforts and making S$ currency always strong 🙏
It is time to have a "change" from USA to other country
Dont always use 'bully/take advantage" strategy against others
It will come to a time when some countries may retaliate also
LCL (Danny 心), [4/4/2025 6:31 PM]
The logic is if Trump want to isolate itself from the rest of the world and punish trade:-
1. Why the world need to use US $ as money of exchange for trade?
2. Why the world need to buy US TB bills to support US $ and finance its yearly recurrent fiscal budget?
Can't the world come out with better approach to finance trade and invest in liquidity to earn better returns than using US $?
365, [4/4/2025 6:31 PM]
There are already countries that want to trade in local currency, the tariffs will just accelerate the same consideration for more countries
LCL (Danny 心), [4/4/2025 6:32 PM]
Bi-lateral currency swap for trade is a good approach because we are using a basket of currencies to determine our S$ currency exchange.
365, [4/4/2025 6:32 PM]
I'm pretty sure our government is holding on to US currency reserve as well, we'll be taking a blow, but will be able to recover from it
RY, [4/4/2025 6:32 PM]
Yes, the BRIC grp may invent BRIC currency
365, [4/4/2025 6:34 PM]
Despite green and renewable energy being a focus, oil is still very relevant in today's economy, and quite a few oil rich countries have joined or expressed interest to join brics+
RY, [4/4/2025 6:35 PM]
The big 5 currencies, USD still leading and dominating
And countries are smart nowsaday and wanted to shift away fm USD reserves n hold more Gold nowsaday
LCL (Danny 心), [4/4/2025 6:36 PM]
Holding gold is safe but offer no return on investment.
Only when sold at higher value and other countries want to buy then got values.
TB bills earn interest + principal and is more liquid.
LCL (Danny 心), [4/4/2025 6:37 PM]
Hence we must think of other TB bills other than US TB bills to earn returns and interest to maintain our liquidity.
RY, [4/4/2025 6:37 PM]
Every countries is already learning lesson fm Trump fiasco
Jun Ming, [4/4/2025 6:38 PM]
Just hope they cancel the policy within weeks or months
RY, [4/4/2025 6:39 PM]
Unlikely
Jun Ming, [4/4/2025 6:40 PM]
Maybe musk can persuade him not to do so
Jun Ming, [4/4/2025 6:41 PM]
Anyway just don't rely too much on the us it is a very messy country
RY, [4/4/2025 6:42 PM]
Elon another crazy billionnaire, dont depend on him also
LCL (Danny 心), [4/4/2025 6:43 PM]
That's why don't admire US malfunction democracy.
It will harm us more than it help us.
Jun Ming, [4/4/2025 6:45 PM]
I vote based on people not on party.
LCL (Danny 心), [4/4/2025 6:45 PM]
https://www.channelnewsasia.com/east-asia/china-impose-34-percent-tariff-us-goods-donald-trump-5044786?cid=internal_sharetool_androidphone_04042025_cna
China to impose tariffs of 34% on all US goods from Apr 10
Jun Ming, [4/4/2025 6:46 PM]
I think people will not buy on us products
Jun Ming, [4/4/2025 6:46 PM]
And improve domestic or regional spending
Jun Ming, [4/4/2025 6:47 PM]
Anyway the shipping fees from us are expensive
REACH Singapore, [4/4/2025 6:47 PM]
Dear Contributors,
⏰ We will be closing the chat in 15 minutes ⏰
Thank you very much for being part of our Telegram chat and participating actively.
Goodnight!
Megan 😊
Jun Ming, [4/4/2025 6:47 PM]
So as an individual I will try to avoid us products
LCL (Danny 心), [4/4/2025 6:48 PM]
1 chicken don't know will cost how much if all tariff are compounded.
$10 become $50?
Jun Ming, [4/4/2025 6:49 PM]
Before the tariff being imposed you can see the price difference of us products and products from other countries
Jun Ming, [4/4/2025 6:49 PM]
So to me not much difference
365, [4/4/2025 6:49 PM]
US has always been expensive, nothing's gonna change on this end
RY, [4/4/2025 6:50 PM]
Thank you Megan for initiating the Reach Chat today 🙏
Gd Evening Reach Team & Participants
REACH Singapore, [4/4/2025 7:00 PM]
Dear Contributors
We will be closing the chat for today.
Thank you very much for being part of our Telegram chat and participating actively.
Goodnight!
Megan 😊
====
